AP-GfK Poll: Republicans view Donald Trump as most electable

[webfact]

AP-GfK Poll: Republicans view Donald Trump as most electable
By STEVE PEOPLES and EMILY SWANSON

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters view Donald Trump as their strongest general election candidate, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights the sharp contrast between the party's voters and its top professionals regarding the billionaire businessman's ultimate political strength.

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that's the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest.

"It's the lifelong establishment politicians on both sides that rub me the wrong way," said registered Republican Joe Selig, a 60-year-old carpenter from Vallejo, California. "I think Trump is more electable. He's strong. We need strength these days."

Trump and Carson are considered among the least electable general election candidates by the Republican Party's professionals, those who are in the business of helping candidates run campaigns and win elections.

Experienced political strategists note that winning a general election and winning the Republican nomination are often very different tasks. The GOP's most conservative voters — a group that is older and whiter than the nation as a whole — wield extraordinary influence in picking the nominee. Independents, moderate voters and minorities are far more important in general elections that draw many more people to the polls.

While Trump and Carson are popular in primary election polls, both have used divisive rhetoric in recent months that alienated some minorities. Trump called Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals during his announcement speech; while Carson said he would not support a Muslim presidential candidate.

"Republicans think (Democrat) Hillary (Rodham Clinton) is weaker than she is. They are wrong," said GOP operative Katie Packer, who was deputy campaign manager for 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. "They think we don't need to win more women or more Hispanics to win. They're wrong."

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has embraced a welcoming tone with Hispanics, tops the field of experienced political leaders on the question of electability, running about even with Carson and slightly behind Trump.

Six in 10 Republicans say Bush could win the general election and 54 percent say the same about Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. There's a drop-off among the rest of the GOP's 2016 crowded class. None of the other candidates is viewed as electable in a general election by more than half of Republican voters.

Carson and Trump are the candidates most likely to receive positive ratings from Republican voters, with 65 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of Carson and 58 percent saying the same of Trump. Republicans are somewhat less excited about Bush, with 48 percent giving him a favorable rating.

"If he weren't a Bush, I wouldn't even know his name," said Republican Leslie Millican, a 34-year-old housewife from Magnolia, Arkansas. "I like the other Bushes. Something about (Jeb Bush) — he ain't grown on me yet."

Trump and Bush have the highest negative ratings within their own party: 37 percent of Republican voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush and 36 percent say the same of Trump.

Their negatives are even more pronounced among the broader electorate. The AP-GfK poll found Trump is viewed unfavorably by 57 percent of those surveyed, the highest negatives of any Republican candidate. Bush is next with unfavorable ratings from 48 percent of all respondents.

Overall, all but one GOP candidate is viewed more unfavorably than favorably by all those questioned. Carson is the exception, drawing about equally positive and negative views. He remains unknown by a significant portion of the electorate.

Among Republican voters, all the candidates except New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have a net positive rating. Carson tops the list, followed by Rubio, former technology executive Carly Fiorina and then Trump.

The poll also found a sharp difference between the political parties over experience.

By an overwhelming 77 percent to 22 percent margin, Republican registered voters and leaners say they prefer an outsider candidate who will change how things are done, rather than someone with experience in Washington who can get things done. They prefer someone with private sector leadership experience over experience holding elected office, 76 percent to 22 percent.

Trump, Carson and Fiorina are the only Republican candidates who have never held elective office. Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, is a former first lady, secretary of state and senator.

Perhaps that helps explain why Democrats prefer experience over outsider status, 67 percent to 32 percent, and experience in office over private sector experience 66 percent to 33 percent.

Republican strategist John Feehery says Trump is considered electable now only because he hasn't yet been the subject of a multimillion dollar negative ad campaign, which will happen should he maintain his lead in the polls.

"Right now, he serves a valuable purpose as a front-runner, especially for the Democrats," Feehery said. "They would love him to be our nominee."

___

The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online October 15 to October 19, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them.
___

Online: Poll: http://ap-gfkpoll.com


-- (c) Associated Press 2015-10-26

[sirineou]

Sure compared to he other Republican candidates,

You know what they say, "in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king"

[oneday]

How very sad and pathetic that this guy is the best Republicans can do. I was willing to vote Republican this time, but not if it is for Trump.

[soalbundy]

Apocalypse now.

[charmonman]

The old white Republican base should start listening to the professionals. If not, either the Republican party or the entire USA is doomed. I hope it is only the former.

The Republican "base" might like Trump and/or Carson. Everyone else sees Trump as an obnoxious egomaniac, and Ben Carson as a slightly stupid mental case, rightly so in both cases. Not a chance either of them could win a general election IMHO, when you bring in the rest of the population who aren't old, white and Republican.

Strange that Carson is a renowned neurosurgeon, but I think he must be some kind of idiot-savant.

[up2u2]

Far Right Wing Republican navel gazing.

[Jingthing]

Actually their best chance is with Rubio or Kasich.

[zaphod reborn]

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated

An amazing coincidence. My polling shows that seven in 10 Republicans are delusional.

[Berkshire]

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated

An amazing coincidence. My polling shows that seven in 10 Republicans are delusional.

Pretty much. I was wondering about Trump as the GOP nominee. If Trump decides he won't participate in any debates (because he knows he'll be ripped to shreds by whoever the Dems put up), these same voters will probably still support him. Just wondering if the general election will be following the same process as before.

[soalbundy]

Amazing, someone worse than Prayut.

[dcutman]

How very sad and pathetic that this guy is the best Republicans can do. I was willing to vote Republican this time, but not if it is for Trump.

I can understand your point, in fact my thinking was exactly yours a month or so ago. Funny thing is I am having a really hard time finding anybody better, maybe Sanders is.

You know everybody says Jimmy Carter is the worst president in US history, and I agree. But when you look at it, he was the least destructive, in policy terms, of all the one's after him.

[ggt]

Thanks for the opportunity to vent on Republicans, white people, and successful business men and surgeons...

This is standard MO for liberal Dems who would vote for anyone who would give away the farm until no one had anything to eat...if it means changing the status quo to an anything goes society...

Wait until the Dem and Repub Presidential nominees face each other in a debate...then make your case...

Edited October 26, 2015 by ggt

[up-country_sinclair]

What a sad state of affairs.

[Publicus]

Thanks for the opportunity to vent on Republicans, white people, and successful business men and surgeons...

This is standard MO for liberal Dems who would vote for anyone who would give away the farm until no one had anything to eat...if it means changing the status quo to an anything goes society...

Wait until the Dem and Repub Presidential nominees face each other in a debate...then make your case...

Speaking of white Anglo Republican Protestant males who are US Senators and as with this guy a colonel who served in Iraq.....

Monday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Republican presidential candidate Sen. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

said his rival Donald Trump will “get slaughtered” in a general election because of the disapproval among Hispanics of his immigration position.

Graham said, “Donald Trump will get killed in a general election … Hillary Clinton will mop up the floor with this guy … To Republicans if you want to win the race, we have two problems, Hispanics and young woman. Donald Trump’s position on immigration is hateful and illogical, there’s a reason 75 percent of Hispanics disapprove of this guy. We will get slaughtered if he is the nominee. So if you give a darn about winning, pick someone who doesn’t dig the hole deeper with Hispanics.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/10/26/graham-trumps-hateful-illogical-immigration-policy-will-get-gop-slaughtered-in-general/

Go Donald Go !!! Maul 'em all

[RidgeRunner]

The GOP has alienated so many, including the independent voters.

They don't know that 1 million U.S. Hispanics turn 18 every year and become eligible to vote?

The blacks, gays, women, the young, non religious, progressives, and those that believe in science won't be voting GOP.

America will survive this current crop of right wing bozos but the GOP may not.

[pitrevie]

Trump has stated that he would like to have Sarah Palin in his cabinet is there any need to say more?

[ggt]

Thanks for the opportunity to vent on Republicans, white people, and successful business men and surgeons...

This is standard MO for liberal Dems who would vote for anyone who would give away the farm until no one had anything to eat...if it means changing the status quo to an anything goes society...

Wait until the Dem and Repub Presidential nominees face each other in a debate...then make your case...

Speaking of white Anglo Republican Protestant males who are US Senators and as with this guy a colonel who served in Iraq.....

Monday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Republican presidential candidate Sen. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

said his rival Donald Trump will “get slaughtered” in a general election because of the disapproval among Hispanics of his immigration position.

Graham said, “Donald Trump will get killed in a general election … Hillary Clinton will mop up the floor with this guy … To Republicans if you want to win the race, we have two problems, Hispanics and young woman. Donald Trump’s position on immigration is hateful and illogical, there’s a reason 75 percent of Hispanics disapprove of this guy. We will get slaughtered if he is the nominee. So if you give a darn about winning, pick someone who doesn’t dig the hole deeper with Hispanics.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/10/26/graham-trumps-hateful-illogical-immigration-policy-will-get-gop-slaughtered-in-general/

Go Donald Go !!! Maul 'em all

Sir Donald is loosing traction...loosing ground to Ben Carson...but let's be realistic it is way too early to be picking a nominee for the Republican Party...there is another nationally televised debate set for Wed. evening...at the U of Colorado if I am not mistaken...anything can happen...lots of opportunities to place one's foot in mouth...or hit a home run...that is what makes these Repub. debates interesting...

On the other hand...Queen Hillary is more concerned with picking out what dress she will select for the Dem. Convention...

[Publicus]

Thanks for the opportunity to vent on Republicans, white people, and successful business men and surgeons...

This is standard MO for liberal Dems who would vote for anyone who would give away the farm until no one had anything to eat...if it means changing the status quo to an anything goes society...

Wait until the Dem and Repub Presidential nominees face each other in a debate...then make your case...

Speaking of white Anglo Republican Protestant males who are US Senators and as with this guy a colonel who served in Iraq.....

Monday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Republican presidential candidate Sen. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

said his rival Donald Trump will “get slaughtered” in a general election because of the disapproval among Hispanics of his immigration position.

Graham said, “Donald Trump will get killed in a general election … Hillary Clinton will mop up the floor with this guy … To Republicans if you want to win the race, we have two problems, Hispanics and young woman. Donald Trump’s position on immigration is hateful and illogical, there’s a reason 75 percent of Hispanics disapprove of this guy. We will get slaughtered if he is the nominee. So if you give a darn about winning, pick someone who doesn’t dig the hole deeper with Hispanics.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/10/26/graham-trumps-hateful-illogical-immigration-policy-will-get-gop-slaughtered-in-general/

Go Donald Go !!! Maul 'em all

Sir Donald is loosing traction...loosing ground to Ben Carson...but let's be realistic it is way too early to be picking a nominee for the Republican Party...there is another nationally televised debate set for Wed. evening...at the U of Colorado if I am not mistaken...anything can happen...lots of opportunities to place one's foot in mouth...or hit a home run...that is what makes these Repub. debates interesting...

On the other hand...Queen Hillary is more concerned with picking out what dress she will select for the Dem. Convention...

Queen Hillary is more concerned with picking out what dress she will select for the Dem. Convention...

O but there will be many more queens there than just the one !

Can't say the same for the Republican convention with its reactionary evangelical tea party rightwing marriage license denying bible thumping yahoo redneck hicks.

[umbanda]

GOOD NEWS!!!!

Trump and Carson may be a good team for President and Vice President of the US.

Trump is insane and he will need an urgent brain surgery..... with a very long convalescence. During that time the US will bankrupt, that it is exactly in what Trump is an expert. After that, Trump will take all the billions he can stole and move to Dubai.

Carson will become the President in substitution, and will have to work very hard to resolve the country's problems. He may succeed.

All Americans will need brain surgery at that time.

Edited November 4, 2015 by umbanda

[sirineou]

Trump and Carson may be a good team for President and Vice President of the US.

Trump is insane and he will need an urgent brain surgery..... with a very long convalescence. During that time the US will bankrupt, that it is exactly in what Trump is an expert. After that, Trump will take all the billions he can stole and move to Dubai.

Carson will become the President in substitution, and will have to work very hard to resolve the country's problems. He may succeed.

All Americans will need brain surgery at that time.

Neither one of them is running for president or VP. If by some strange chance it should happen they would take it,

but what both of them are engaging in, is Brand development, and they are doing it with other peoples money. Brilliant!!

After this is over and it settles down to serious candidates, Trump and Carson will make a lot of money out of this.

Can you imagine a Tump president, or a Carson president that does not accept evolution?

[Usernames]

Thanks for the opportunity to vent on Republicans, white people, and successful business men and surgeons...

This is standard MO for liberal Dems who would vote for anyone who would give away the farm until no one had anything to eat...if it means changing the status quo to an anything goes society...

Wait until the Dem and Repub Presidential nominees face each other in a debate...then make your case...

Speaking of white Anglo Republican Protestant males who are US Senators and as with this guy a colonel who served in Iraq.....

Monday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Republican presidential candidate Sen. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

said his rival Donald Trump will “get slaughtered” in a general election because of the disapproval among Hispanics of his immigration position.

Graham said, “Donald Trump will get killed in a general election … Hillary Clinton will mop up the floor with this guy … To Republicans if you want to win the race, we have two problems, Hispanics and young woman. Donald Trump’s position on immigration is hateful and illogical, there’s a reason 75 percent of Hispanics disapprove of this guy. We will get slaughtered if he is the nominee. So if you give a darn about winning, pick someone who doesn’t dig the hole deeper with Hispanics.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/10/26/graham-trumps-hateful-illogical-immigration-policy-will-get-gop-slaughtered-in-general/

Go Donald Go !!! Maul 'em all

Sir Donald is loosing traction...loosing ground to Ben Carson...but let's be realistic it is way too early to be picking a nominee for the Republican Party...there is another nationally televised debate set for Wed. evening...at the U of Colorado if I am not mistaken...anything can happen...lots of opportunities to place one's foot in mouth...or hit a home run...that is what makes these Repub. debates interesting...

On the other hand...Queen Hillary is more concerned with picking out what dress she will select for the Dem. Convention...

No, Trump has gained ground and Carson has faded after the last debate. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/258942-trump-leads-by-double-digits-in-post-debate-poll

[CMNightRider]

How very sad and pathetic that this guy is the best Republicans can do. I was willing to vote Republican this time, but not if it is for Trump.

It's interesting you mentioned this. I was just thinking this morning the same about Hillary and Bernie. How sad and pathetic to have these two individuals as the best the Democrats can do.

[up2u2]

What's not to like about Bernie. Well unless you are a 1 percenter or a Corporate monopoly.

Break the Bank monopoly and introduce real free market competition into the financial sector. Make each and everyone Bank big enough to fail. Introduce strict regulations on Bank greed. Increase Taxes on the wealthy and introduce means tests for all Tax funded financial assistance. Remove all Corporate welfare payments, Invest in Tax payer funded higher education. Tax payer funded universal health care. Investment in renewable energy and transition from fossil fuels, Corporate Super Tax levy, Remove offshore tax avoidance schemes and profit shifting to lower taxing countries with Jail terms for CEO's caught doing it, lift Hedge Fund taxation rates. Increase minimum wage by 100%. Take on the Arms Manufacturing Industry and introduce strict gun laws, amend the constitution if required. Move military back behind US borders and reduce military spending by 80%. Spend every last cent on building repairing infrastructure. Mobilise the workforce and build a stronger more sustainable skilled workforce. A massive redistribution of wealth to generate growth from the bottom up.

All this is just basic changes that will bring America into line with a modern well educated functioning democracy. Nothing special or the slightest risk in making these common sense changes. America is falling so far behind other countries.

I could never vote Right Wing simply because they don't represent citizens they represent big business and the elite. They simply cannot be trusted. They say one thing then do another. At the core of their ideology is 'cheap labor'. Less for the people who actually generate the profit and more for the fat cats.

Bernie is your man to get it done I reckon. On the 3rd debate I did get a little movement on some points Kasich made but you have to be very wary and always remember it is Corporate America funding him so not really to be trusted. Trump et al are a waste of oxygen.

[RidgeRunner]

Nobody serious on the GOP side will run this time. The cake is baked.

And beside, it will be so much fun with Bill back in the white house with all that spare time on his hands.

[up2u2]

Nobody serious on the GOP side will run this time. The cake is baked.

And beside, it will be so much fun with Bill back in the white house with all that spare time on his hands.

Will have to shorten Bill's leash a little this time Ridge. Keep him well away from those Interns. lol

[RidgeRunner]

Nobody serious on the GOP side will run this time. The cake is baked.

And beside, it will be so much fun with Bill back in the white house with all that spare time on his hands.

Will have to shorten Bill's leash a little this time Ridge. Keep him well away from those Interns. lol

Bill is a rock star. They must be throwing themselves at him all day long. This is gonna be fun.

[dutchisaan]

So, Donald Duck, sorry, Trump is the best the can put up?

[Chicog]

No, Trump has gained ground and Carson has faded after the last debate. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/258942-trump-leads-by-double-digits-in-post-debate-poll

Not now.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has overtaken businessman Donald Trump as the top pick of Republican primary voters to be the party’s presidential nominee, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The result marks the first time since June that the Journal/NBC News poll has found a Republican other than Mr. Trump to be leading the GOP field. Some 29 percent of GOP primary voters rank Carson as their top choice, while 23 percent favor Trump.

Link

[up2u2]

Well who exactly knows what logical thought process goes through the mind of a conservative right wing ideologue if any.

After the 3rd debate you could only liken Carson's performance to an anti depressant on mogadon. It was totally incoherent. Flat tithe of 10% taxation and cut spending, do the hokey pokey and turn yourself about, voilà budgetary surplus. Bizarro world. Then when asked about flogging 'snake oil' herbal dung beetle pills he had no idea what anyone was talking about and had absolutely no idea when anyone went to the homepage of the company there was his smiling face holding up the product. Have no idea how he managed being a neurosurgeon he strikes me as a person who could barely make his way to the Mall. The thought of Carson hovering anywhere near me with a scalpel fills me with terror. Carson with nail clippers would make me nervous.

To be fare a comparison with Trump is a pretty low bar. A little like stepping over a crack in the sidewalk.

Edited November 4, 2015 by up2u2

[Jingthing]

I believe he's a good surgeon.

I know a really excellent plumber, Joe is his name, he speaks real soft like, should he run for president?