Myanmar's historic election

YANGON: There was little doubt that Myanmar's National League for Democracy (NLD) would prevail in a free and fair national election. There was considerable concern about whether the military, which rules the country through its Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), would permit such an election. It looks increasingly like they will. Interim results show that the NLD has won an overwhelming mandate in this week's ballot. And the military looks set to devise a formula that will effectively share power with the democratic opposition.

The NLD won Myanmar's last genuinely fair election, which was held in 1990, in a landslide, claiming 392 of the 492 parliamentary seats. The junta that ruled at the time disregarded the ballot and held the leader of the NLD, Aung San Suu Kyi, under house arrest. She remained under house arrest for 15 of the 21 years until she was released in late 2010. She resumed her political career immediately and commenced discussions with the junta about registering her party to join elections and the role she could play in the country's politics. While the NLD is the country's most popular party and Suu Kyi its most popular politician, the constitution (written by the junta) institutionalises the military's control of government and ensures no other party can check its prerogatives.

That control will now be tested. In the election last Sunday, the NLD appears to have repeated its previous performance, winning an overwhelming majority of seats in regional and national parliaments.

Significantly, the ruling party conceded defeat and the military has said it would "respect and follow the people's decision."

Nevertheless, the military retains considerable power. The constitution reserves a quarter of parliamentary seats for the armed forces; they are filled by appointment, not election. The commander-in-chief nominates heads of the three most powerful ministries — border security, defence and the interior — and Parliament has no oversight of military budgets. He also retains the right to take control of the government in emergencies.

For many, the most glaring offence is the clause that bars anyone with foreign family members from being president. That was aimed at blocking Suu Kyi's rise to power since she married a British citizen and her two sons both have British passports.

The NLD has won a sufficient number of votes to be able to form a majority in Parliament without forming a coalition government, but even that will not be sufficient to amend the constitution to allow Suu Kyi to claim the presidency.

But Suu Kyi is undaunted. She knows that if the military will accept the results, there is little reason not to negotiate a compromise that affords her the leading role she seeks and the people of Myanmar want her to take. She has spoken of a position "above the presidency".

This outcome is a victory for those who bet that President Thein Sein was serious about reform and followed his 2011 opening with promises of aid, investment and other inducements to continue on the path of political liberalisation. Japan and other Southeast Asian governments have long insisted on engaging the Myanmar government to prod it toward reform and they were joined by US President Barack Obama who has visited the country three times since he took office. The Japanese government has welcomed the election as a "major step toward democratisation" of Myanmar and expressed hopes for further reforms.

That journey is not complete. The military could still get cold feet and back away from the loss of its power and privilege, even if much of it is safeguarded. US officials have signalled that continued assistance will depend on a genuine transition of power to a representative government. Other friends and partners of Myanmar must also demand that the military genuinely cede power and not try to undermine the next government. This outcome is an important victory for democracy, not only in Myanmar but elsewhere in the region.

Full story: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Myanmars-historic-election-30272954.html

-- The Nation 2015-11-15

Its not over until the fat lady sings.

NLD won once before in 1990 but the military would not honor that election.

With the controls they have in place since the military wrote the latest constitution it might just be a pyrrhic victory for the NLD opposition

Myanmar's eastern neighbor will take note and not want the same results. will be interesting to seehow they attempt to avoid it.

A party winning an overwhelming mandate with a woman as leader. Didn't that happen somewhere else in ASEAN in recent times?

Its not over until the fat lady sings.

Or the thin 70 yo lady gets into power.