Can 'The Force Awakens' become the biggest movie ever?

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Can 'The Force Awakens' become the biggest movie ever?

RYAN NAKASHIMA, AP Business Writer

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Riding galaxy-sized expectations, the new "Star Wars" movie is already setting records for pre-opening ticket sales, with still a month to go. But does that mean the movie's destined to be the biggest of all time?

Though several signs point in that direction, the outcome isn't guaranteed.

The movie is on track to have the biggest December opening ever, topping "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," which took in $85 million in the U.S. and Canada on its opening weekend in December 2012.

Ticket seller Fandango says advance ticket sales for "Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens" has already topped every other movie, though it didn't provide figures. Imax says it has sold $18 million domestically, double the previous record. Imax receipts account for a third of pre-release sales for this movie, putting the domestic total at more than $50 million.

Whether it bests the biggest grosser of all time — "Avatar," with $2.8 billion worldwide — depends on word of mouth and whether fans love it enough to watch it multiple times through the new year.

"Star Wars" will have the advantage of having weak competition for months. Marvel's "Deadpool" doesn't come out until mid-February, while Warner Bros.' "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice" isn't out until late March.

"I think it's going to own January," said Erik Davis, managing editor of Fandango, one of the nation's largest online ticket retailers. "I know one guy who has nine tickets to see it in the first week alone. That's what we're talking about."

A single ticket in big cities can cost $25 or more after paying for extras like Imax and 3-D.

Social media activity is also off the charts, according to entertainment news website Moviepilot Inc.

Exactly a month from release, "The Force Awakens" had 405 million trailer and teaser views on Facebook and YouTube. That's 87 percent more than this summer's "Jurassic World," which opened domestically with a record $208.8 million in ticket sales and owns the all-time No. 3 spot with $1.7 billion worldwide. No. 2 is "Titanic," at $2.1 billion.

What's more, the 178,000 weekly searches for the movie on Google is more than three times as high as "Jurassic World," which had 51,800 weekly searches a month from release, according to Moviepilot.

"People are searching and craving and demanding content," Moviepilot CEO Tobi Bauckhage said. "That's a very strong signal."

To be sure, December releases tend to be smaller than in the summer, so coming out on top may take a marathon rather than a sprint.

As for the all-time high, one thing "Avatar" had going for it: It rode a wave of consumer interest in 3-D, which costs a few dollars more than regular tickets. That frenzy has largely cooled off. Traditionalists with a nostalgia for the originals might prefer 2-D screenings, especially with director J.J. Abrams' use of more realistic-looking special effects like puppetry.

The Walt Disney Co., which owns "Star Wars" maker Lucasfilm, declined to comment.

Advance sales don't always equate to record grosses. The first installment of "The Hunger Games" was the leader in advance sales, but topped out at a worldwide gross of $693 million, not even in the all-time Top 10.

What "The Force Awakens" benefits from, however, is interest that now spans multiple generations. The movie also has a much bigger Chinese box office to tap. "Avatar" pulled down a monstrous $204 million in China through 2010, but the theatrical market there is now at least three times as big.

The big unknown is that no one's actually seen the movie yet.

It could make the difference between the so-so reaction to the "Star Wars" prequels in Episodes 1 to 3 — with heavily parodied characters like Jar Jar Binks and video-game-like action scenes — and the satisfying revival that fans are hoping for.

"The brand name alone and the excitement for the franchise will get huge numbers in the door," Rentrak senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian said. "But for very long-term prospects, you have to have a movie that delivers."

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Follow AP Business Writer Ryan Nakashima at https://twitter.com/rnakashi . His work can be found at http://bigstory.ap.org/content/ryan-nakashima

-- (c) Associated Press 2015-11-21

[oxo1947]

A single ticket in big cities can cost $25 or more after paying for extras like Imax and 3-D.-----OP

Thank God for Pirate bay...........................

[ToS2014]

some movies deserve to be watched on the big screen. Some, not all. Plus I like the 'at home' option of cheap refreshments and potty breaks (pause) at will. Not to mention the traffic, parking, and the congregation talking idotegese all around.

[thaibeachlovers]

Millions will go to see it based purely on the hype, so expect big numbers. However, I hope it isn't like so many "big" recent releases and isn't worth the ticket price. I saw the new Mad Max on the plane and was very pleased I hadn't paid money at a cinema to see that piece of cinematic garbage.

The media seem invested in making mountains out of movie molehills, as with the latest James Bond film, writing in the papers such hype that one would think it was the second coming, rather than a mere movie to be seen and enjoyed ( or otherwise ) and then forgotten about.

[thaibeachlovers]

PS, Jurassic world, as mentioned in the OP was extremely disappointing, to me. Just not a patch on the originals.

[Seastallion]

Millions will go to see it based purely on the hype, so expect big numbers. However, I hope it isn't like so many "big" recent releases and isn't worth the ticket price. I saw the new Mad Max on the plane and was very pleased I hadn't paid money at a cinema to see that piece of cinematic garbage.

The media seem invested in making mountains out of movie molehills, as with the latest James Bond film, writing in the papers such hype that one would think it was the second coming, rather than a mere movie to be seen and enjoyed ( or otherwise ) and then forgotten about.

That's precisely the motivation for the story.

[Ulysses G.]

PS, Jurassic world, as mentioned in the OP was extremely disappointing, to me. Just not a patch on the originals.

IMO, the original sucked too. The original Mad Max was OK and the next few were actually pretty good. The latest was worthless.

[thaibeachlovers]

PS, Jurassic world, as mentioned in the OP was extremely disappointing, to me. Just not a patch on the originals.

IMO, the original sucked too. The original Mad Max was OK and the next few were actually pretty good. The latest was worthless.

Hmmmm. I was very disappointed that the woman ( the one that actually thought it was a bad idea to kill dinosaurs and saved the T Rex egg ) didn't get eaten by T.

[DaddyWarbucks]

Millions will go to see it based purely on the hype, so expect big numbers. However, I hope it isn't like so many "big" recent releases and isn't worth the ticket price. I saw the new Mad Max on the plane and was very pleased I hadn't paid money at a cinema to see that piece of cinematic garbage.

The media seem invested in making mountains out of movie molehills, as with the latest James Bond film, writing in the papers such hype that one would think it was the second coming, rather than a mere movie to be seen and enjoyed ( or otherwise ) and then forgotten about.

Agreed.

Most of the new films are disappointing... but the hype has become an art form.

[TheCruncher]

PS, Jurassic world, as mentioned in the OP was extremely disappointing, to me. Just not a patch on the originals.

IMO, the original sucked too. The original Mad Max was OK and the next few were actually pretty good. The latest was worthless.

As is the case with 99% of the movies that get resssurected based on their success 15 - 20 years ago.

[Berkshire]

I always liked the very first Star Wars best (episode IV), even though by today's standards, the special effects were medieval. The last one (III) was ok, but not particularly memorable. If they can combine a good story with break-through technology (i.e., Avatar), it could be big.

[Shot]

I had high hopes for this movie, but after seeing a few trailers, I'm not so hopeful.

Live long and prosper

[Wilsonandson]

Lets hope a bootleg copy doesn't get leaked and put people off going to the cinema. I remember watching Jurassic Park at the cinema, great movie. Bootleggers pls wait until its releasedcon dvd at least.

[willyumiii]

I thought Lucusfilm had been sold to Disney?

Is George still cranking these out?

( I was once an employee of Lucusfilm at Skywalker Ranch.)

[thaibeachlovers]

Saw my first trailer last night. Looks OK, but hopefully it doesn't suffer from too much reliance on speclal effects and too little plot like a lot of the new big remakes. Seems that when the corporates take over, it's all big bangs and not much character.

[BKKdreaming]

How long will the lines be for tickets after the first week ? I do not have to be the first to see it

I would love to see it on a BIG screen , any idea what the best theater is for that ?

or maybe even IMAX ,

[Wilsonandson]

1977 Star Wars was the first movie I saw in the cinema. Definetetly going to see this new movie at the cinema with my son. I can hear the beginning music already in my head. Thank you George Lucas.