Asian and SE Asian Currencies 20-30% Over-Valued ☺

[OMGImInPattaya]

Some respected commentators are saying many Asian Currencies, even with the drops over the past couple years, are still over-valued by up to 30%. A baht at 40-42 would be just splendid in my view...and with the continuing decline in oil prices, the price of imported petrol wouldn't even increase.

I can see why many here supported the coup now.

[Gutenberg]

USD/THB at 37.5 or even 38 seems very possible 2016/17. But after that, leave the sinking ship.

[jpinx]

Not sure where they get the figures -- but looking at XE over a ten year graph, it's clear that the lowest value was a shade under 35/US$, so dreaming of 38 or more is just that -- dreaming......

FWIW -- the drop these "experts" are talking about as being over the last 2 years are actually all since about May2015

Gotta love XE graphs for shooting down "experts"

Edited January 9, 2016 by jpinx

[Gutenberg]

Not sure where they get the figures -- but looking at XE over a ten year graph, it's clear that the lowest value was a shade under 35/US$, so dreaming of 38 or more is just that -- dreaming......

FWIW -- the drop these "experts" are talking about as being over the last 2 years are actually all since about May2015

Gotta love XE graphs for shooting down "experts"

Yeah right, look again at your 10 year xe.com chart:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

12 Jan 2006 00:00 UTC - 9 Jan 2016 04:56 UTC

USD/THB close:36.36097 low:28.61500 high:39.76316

[jpinx]

Not sure where they get the figures -- but looking at XE over a ten year graph, it's clear that the lowest value was a shade under 35/US$, so dreaming of 38 or more is just that -- dreaming......

FWIW -- the drop these "experts" are talking about as being over the last 2 years are actually all since about May2015

Gotta love XE graphs for shooting down "experts"

Yeah right, look again at your 10 year xe.com chart:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

12 Jan 2006 00:00 UTC - 9 Jan 2016 04:56 UTC

USD/THB close:36.36097 low:28.61500 high:39.76316

Ooops -- my bad -- being non-US, I am not used to the numbers there. I had it the wrong way around - so - to re-iterate in relation to sterling,,,

Since the end of 2006 there has not been any sign of much movement away from 48/£ until 2013 (guess what happened then?), since when it has done a few wobbles, but nothing too dramatic, and nothing like the levels suggested. If there are trouble-free elections here it won't matter too much who wins, currency value will depend on stability of the next regime.

[HenryB]

Our work shows 40 to USA dollar in the Book in 14 months

[Gutenberg]

Not sure where they get the figures -- but looking at XE over a ten year graph, it's clear that the lowest value was a shade under 35/US$, so dreaming of 38 or more is just that -- dreaming......

FWIW -- the drop these "experts" are talking about as being over the last 2 years are actually all since about May2015

Gotta love XE graphs for shooting down "experts"

Yeah right, look again at your 10 year xe.com chart:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

12 Jan 2006 00:00 UTC - 9 Jan 2016 04:56 UTC

USD/THB close:36.36097 low:28.61500 high:39.76316

Ooops -- my bad -- being non-US, I am not used to the numbers there. I had it the wrong way around - so - to re-iterate in relation to sterling,,,

Since the end of 2006 there has not been any sign of much movement away from 48/£ until 2013 (guess what happened then?), since when it has done a few wobbles, but nothing too dramatic, and nothing like the levels suggested. If there are trouble-free elections here it won't matter too much who wins, currency value will depend on stability of the next regime.

Just a hint, in the forex market, years mean nothing

[OMGImInPattaya]

All I know is the new car I was thinking of buying a year or so ago is now $15,000 cheaper for me...for Thais no discount ?

[IMA_FARANG]

No predictions on the thai Baht versus Dollar here.

but my opinion is it still deprnfds on China and what happens there.

i hav e great confidence in the this ability to shoot themselves in the foot.

and as for the Chinese, they aew their own worst enimies.

Much like the Thai bussinessmen.

[OJAS]

Since the end of 2006 there has not been any sign of much movement away from 48/£ until 2013 (guess what happened then?), since when it has done a few wobbles, but nothing too dramatic, and nothing like the levels suggested. If there are trouble-free elections here it won't matter too much who wins, currency value will depend on stability of the next regime.

But don't forget that events back in the UK could equally have a bearing on the THB:GBP exchange rate. The GBP certainly wobbled against most other currencies during the Scottish Referendum debate 18 months ago, and seems set to do likewise in the run-up to the EU Membership Referendum. So the outcome of the latter Referendum could prove equally crucial in THB:GBP terms as the stability of any eventually-elected government in LOS.

[jpinx]

Since the end of 2006 there has not been any sign of much movement away from 48/£ until 2013 (guess what happened then?), since when it has done a few wobbles, but nothing too dramatic, and nothing like the levels suggested. If there are trouble-free elections here it won't matter too much who wins, currency value will depend on stability of the next regime.

But don't forget that events back in the UK could equally have a bearing on the THB:GBP exchange rate. The GBP certainly wobbled against most other currencies during the Scottish Referendum debate 18 months ago, and seems set to do likewise in the run-up to the EU Membership Referendum. So the outcome of the latter Referendum could prove equally crucial in THB:GBP terms as the stability of any eventually-elected government in LOS.

Agreed -- and it's interesting that the outcome of elections is not so important as the return to "stability" after the election. The run-up to the next US presidential elections will affect everything, everywhere, in ways that might be very interesting .! UK faces the possibility of another Scottish referendum, if the SNP can get away with it. How the mix of UK's EU and then Scottish referendums will stir the pot will be great fun to watch. All good opportunities for the people who can read the signs well.

Meantime, back on the paddie, the timing of Thailand's election relative to elections in US, etc, is going to make XE graphs interesting to watch.

[Pib]

Our work shows 40 to USA dollar in the Book in 14 months

By chance is your book a fairy tale which ends with, "And they all lived happily ever after with a Bt40/USD exchange rate."

[swissie]

The only thing OVER- Valued is the Euro / US Dollar.

There are a zillion factors affecting currency exchange rates, But one key factor remains: Where is economic growth happening?

In Europe? =Dismal.

US? = Slightly above dismal.

SE/Asia = growth prospects still intact.

The century of European / US military / economic dominance is coming to an end. Let's face it ! Other powers will fill the void. Who could that be? (It's not going to be Africa)! Who remains?

Cheers.

[NeverSure]

The only thing OVER- Valued is the Euro / US Dollar.

There are a zillion factors affecting currency exchange rates, But one key factor remains: Where is economic growth happening?

In Europe? =Dismal.

US? = Slightly above dismal.

SE/Asia = growth prospects still intact.

The century of European / US military / economic dominance is coming to an end. Let's face it ! Other powers will fill the void. Who could that be? (It's not going to be Africa)! Who remains?

Cheers.

So who will dominate? Some collapsing communist country?

[BudRight]

The only thing OVER- Valued is the Euro / US Dollar.

There are a zillion factors affecting currency exchange rates, But one key factor remains: Where is economic growth happening?

In Europe? =Dismal.

US? = Slightly above dismal.

SE/Asia = growth prospects still intact.

The century of European / US military / economic dominance is coming to an end. Let's face it ! Other powers will fill the void. Who could that be? (It's not going to be Africa)! Who remains?

Cheers.

The Thai property market, especially the condo market in Bangkok, is a bubble ready to burst from the sort of political instability that would get me kicked off the forums for discussing.

[Naam]

All I know is the new car I was thinking of buying a year or so ago is now $15,000 cheaper for me...for Thais no discount ?

except when i pertains to those clever Thais who keep their Dollars and EURos in Singapore and Hong Kong.

[Pib]

The only thing OVER- Valued is the Euro / US Dollar.

There are a zillion factors affecting currency exchange rates, But one key factor remains: Where is economic growth happening?

In Europe? =Dismal.

US? = Slightly above dismal.

SE/Asia = growth prospects still intact.

The century of European / US military / economic dominance is coming to an end. Let's face it ! Other powers will fill the void. Who could that be? (It's not going to be Africa)! Who remains?

Cheers.

So who will dominate? Some collapsing communist country?

The world is also going to end in 2012! Whoops...it didn't...it's 2016 already. Never mind.

My vote is Thailand becomes a world power and the Baht a world reserve currency....and also Texas succeeds from the U.S. to become a world power with George W. Bush as its leader---now when these two things happen the world will indeed come to an end.

[slipperylobster]

It seems to me that the baht does the exact opposite of what we think it will do.

[jpinx]

It seems to me that the baht does the exact opposite of what we think it will do.

.....unless you expect it to do the opposite...

[bangkapi]

If it gets over 40 baht to the dollar again, I'm bringing money in to buy some rental properties cheaply.

[Robert24]

well the baht has been relatively strong compared to other SEA currencies. but in general I continue to be short EM currencies and long$.

[jacksam]

If it gets over 40 baht to the dollar again, I'm bringing money in to buy some rental properties cheaply.

Foolish notion..

[fletchsmile]

Might help if you posted some more info or links, as to who are these "respected commentators", and which are these "many currencies" they are talking about, and even if it includes the baht

USD/THB is around 36.X

a 30% devaluation would take that to around 47, even 20% would take that to around 43, rather than 40-42.

also today's exchange rate has/had very little to do with the reasons for coup

All suggests really that none of this stacks up and comes across more as "bar talk and rumours"

so a bit more info and links might add some credibility...

Edited January 11, 2016 by fletchsmile

[Saan]

It seems to me that the baht does the exact opposite of what we think it will do.

The baht seem to me to do the exact opposite of what we hope it will do.

[Gutenberg]

It seems to me that the baht does the exact opposite of what we think it will do.

The baht seem to me to do the exact opposite of what we hope it will do.

So you all want a strong THB?

[OMGImInPattaya]

Might help if you posted some more info or links, as to who are these "respected commentators", and which are these "many currencies" they are talking about, and even if it includes the baht

USD/THB is around 36.X

a 30% devaluation would take that to around 47, even 20% would take that to around 43, rather than 40-42.

also today's exchange rate has/had very little to do with the reasons for coup

All suggests really that none of this stacks up and comes across more as "bar talk and rumours"

so a bit more info and links might add some credibility...

And you can link us to your post of two years ago predicting that the baht would weaken from 30-1 on the US$ to 37-1?

I certainly had no idea...and have no idea where it will be in 6 months to a year but the signs of a strong dollar and the continued weakening of export and/or resource commodity export economies country currencies is a pretty sure thing. Even a weakening of another 10% would put the baht over 40 to the dollar...something I don't recall for over a decade.

Edited January 11, 2016 by OMGImInPattaya

[jpinx]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

[OMGImInPattaya]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

[elgordo38]

No predictions on the thai Baht versus Dollar here.

but my opinion is it still deprnfds on China and what happens there.

i hav e great confidence in the this ability to shoot themselves in the foot.

and as for the Chinese, they aew their own worst enimies.

Much like the Thai bussinessmen.

Take the sunshine and the cheap labor out of the equation and what else is left?

[jpinx]

The US dollar is being talked-up based on what? Shale oil is still too expensive compared to the now-increased barrelage from SA and Iran, and we have not seen the effects of the Yuan being included in the "worlds leading currencies" yet, but given their casino mentality, it's going to be interesting, if not tearful

The US is not an oil-exporting country so the price of shale oil is pretty much irrelevant to the economy (except in those regions where it is pumped). The overall cheaper price of oil/energy has an overall stimulative effect on the economy. Nobody is "talking up" up the US economy...the USA is kicking butt and taking names...that's why the dollar is strong. The BRIC wall has completely crumbled

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms