SURVEY: Do you believe that the economic outlook for Thailand is better than last year?

[Scott]

Do you believe that the economic outlook for Thailand is better than last year?

Please feel free to make a comment.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/884223-thai-gdp-growth-forecast-this-year-at-3-35/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/884657-european-shares-tumble-as-worries-over-china-intensify/

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/884913-weakening-yuan-will-not-affect-thailand-in-long-run/

[Credo]

Unless they wish to reorient themselves away from China, I don't think they are going to see much economic improvement.

[stickylies]

Please define which economy u are referring to: White, grey, black?

[craigt3365]

The world economy is not doing well. Not good for tourism nor exports. Not to mention the poor management this country has now at so many levels.

[englishoak]

Better than any dusit poll

[never me]

NO.

There are many factories / Company's closing down in Thailand and moving to other country's.

This is just the start of things to get worse.

[steven100]

I believe it will plod along like most other countries at this time.

The economic environment is tough everywhere ... look at china right now, it's struggling.

[ikke]

No new government, no better economy, real tourism down day by day, factories closing and moving.... so the answer is NO

[fiddlehead]

In the south, most land is used for rubber and palm oil.
Prices for both are way down.
In the north, it is mostly rice and sugar cane.
Not sure about prices in those commodities but I believe rice is down (with some help from the stockpiling of rice from the Thaksin plan)

So, tourism is up, but not the money end of it as the Chinese and Koreans don't spend the kind of money that the Europeans did.

So, it doesn't look good IMO.

[lujanit]

No. While I know personally of two companies that are closing down it is merely the tip of an iceberg. One company has been operating for 20+ years and had many staff. The MD was kind enough not to tell her long time staff until after the New Year even though the Board had made a decision to liquidate last October.

I encourage that you head over to the BP's business section and read the disturbing article The Next Currency War.

This article puts into perspective recent manufacturing exports for Taiwan and Singapore only. Thailand does not live in a bubble immune from the global economy and if SE Asia countries are suffering it has a wide impact.

I have said it before. The BoT has to let the baht find its true level, a devaluation from its current level.

Edited January 11, 2016 by lujanit

[Scott]

Anecdotal information isn't always a trend, but I have a close friend who works for a long, well-established Japanese based company here in Thailand. He has worked for them for a number of years. In the past two years business has slowed, but no layoffs were done, at least not at the management level. Now there will be a major layoff and people who resign will do so with a nice leaving package -- not overly generous, but worth considering if one considers facing unemployment.

Those who do not resign and there job is terminated will receive nothing more than legally mandated benefits.

Nobody knows for sure how many people will be laid off, but it will be a lot.

[realenglish1]

I never understood how a government can forecast what the economy is going to do a year down the road Heck I don't even know if I am alive or not a year down the road

[Thian]

Nope,

The baht is too high

safety is still a concern

flooding hasn't been prevented

now there's a draught

maybe the fishery ban comes

Russians won't come back

Chinese have less baht and a crisis coming

Thailand became too expensive for the quality delivered.

[craigt3365]

Nope,

The baht is too high

safety is still a concern

flooding hasn't been prevented

now there's a draught

maybe the fishery ban comes

Russians won't come back

Chinese have less baht and a crisis coming

Thailand became too expensive for the quality delivered.

Your last point really hits the nail on the head. My wife is amazed at how much prices have increased for daily necessities in the past few years.

[Eric Loh]

Don't need a economic genius to answer the question. Agricultural produces are at its lowest ebb and that's 64% of the population translated to lots of loss in domestic spending and revenues. That affect export too and couple with declining China growth, EU stagnation and still questionable USA recovery, the outlook for export and investment are dim. Tourism will help but only single digit contribution to GDP. That is the problem with junta government in that no investors will dare take risk when they consider policy risk and uncertainty. We lost good trade partners and our aviation, fishery are still on knife edge on sanctions. I am bracing for my business to encounter big challenges this year after a drop in revenue and profit last year. I hope I make it through this year. Sucks big time.

[Thian]

Nope,

The baht is too high

safety is still a concern

flooding hasn't been prevented

now there's a draught

maybe the fishery ban comes

Russians won't come back

Chinese have less baht and a crisis coming

Thailand became too expensive for the quality delivered.

Your last point really hits the nail on the head. My wife is amazed at how much prices have increased for daily necessities in the past few years.

Believe it or not but most friends from my wife go shopping/holiday in Japan these days. Some even can't speak english at all.

It's cheaper there and they like the high quality of things.

[DrTuner]

Year of sanctions and international spotlight coming up.

[HappyinNE]

No way. Look at the performance of the economy under past military governments. Not very good. China a big trading partner is going down fast. The US is headed for recession. In the US the big job increase reported for December was 95% an adjustment to the real very low figure. Commodities are heading down. Not good for rice and rubber.

My guess is a negative GDP growth. Might be a time to buy a long term put against the Thai market.

[Srikcir]

This survey really needs a few more options:

- Economy will be about the same as 2015

- Don't know

Apart from Deputy PM Somkid, the government's economic policies have been amateurish, contradictory and inconsistent. Somkid is doing the best he can which are short-term capital injections into the economy that have delivered trivial increases in GDP growth. But that will be insufficient for a recovery of the economy to pre-coup levels any time soon.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Srikcir

[retarius]

Unless they wish to reorient themselves away from China, I don't think they are going to see much economic improvement.

And reorient themselves to whom? Everywhere is looking bleak….US? latest jobs report is a disaster….EU? even Germany is going down the pan….Japan? zero growth there….UK? recovery looks very weak and massive personal debt levels which are not being inflated away.

Sadly nowhere is looking very bright….and China despite the stock market plunges will still out grow everybody else this year.

A pro-China strategy is optimal.

[elgordo38]

Unless they wish to reorient themselves away from China, I don't think they are going to see much economic improvement.

As China goes so will Thailand and well the rest of Asia.

[phoenixdoglover]

Unless they wish to reorient themselves away from China, I don't think they are going to see much economic improvement.

And reorient themselves to whom? Everywhere is looking bleak….US? latest jobs report is a disaster….EU? even Germany is going down the pan….Japan? zero growth there….UK? recovery looks very weak and massive personal debt levels which are not being inflated away.

Sadly nowhere is looking very bright….and China despite the stock market plunges will still out grow everybody else this year.

A pro-China strategy is optimal.

The US jobs report is not a mess. The US is solid, but not booming.

Capital in China is fleeing to the Yen today. Predictions range from guarded to gloomy.

Thailand needs to fix its international issues (fishing, trafficking, air industry), get back to an elected government, and not put any more eggs in the China basket.

Further, education reform is paramount....The desirable future is not rice, rubber, and assembly plants.

[elgordo38]

I like China's idea of migrating to a consumer driven economy unfortunately a lot of consumers are loosing their jobs or unhappy with their low pay checks a great receipt to make the transfer. Chinese are traditional savings and I doubt if they will every be enticed to join the run to the bank for a loan group the greed group running mad in the world today. They are a stuff it under your mattress society and buy gold. Once they see cracks in the system this will only increase. Yes there is wealth in China but in the hands of a few government mandarins and super rich not spread around to the middle class like after WW2. The formula for this transition is just not there. The Chinese stock market is down again this morning. Of course Americans are immune from this the Dow will more than likely shoot up tonight like last week.

Edited January 11, 2016 by elgordo38

[craigt3365]

Unless they wish to reorient themselves away from China, I don't think they are going to see much economic improvement.

And reorient themselves to whom? Everywhere is looking bleak….US? latest jobs report is a disaster….EU? even Germany is going down the pan….Japan? zero growth there….UK? recovery looks very weak and massive personal debt levels which are not being inflated away.

Sadly nowhere is looking very bright….and China despite the stock market plunges will still out grow everybody else this year.

A pro-China strategy is optimal.

Methinks you're getting your info on US job reports from the wrong source:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-scores-big-with-292000-new-jobs-in-december-2016-01-08

The United States gained almost 300,000 new jobs in December, capping off the fifth straight year in which employment grew by at least 2 million to power a steadily growing economy.

The economy produced 292,000 jobs in the final month of 2015, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had predicted a 215,000 increase in nonfarm jobs.

Employment gains in November and October were also considerably stronger, revisions show. Some 252,000 new jobs were created in November instead of 211,000. October’s gain was raised to 307,000 from 298,000, marking the biggest increase of 2015.

[Dap]

I never understood how a government can forecast what the economy is going to do a year down the road Heck I don't even know if I am alive or not a year down the road

Presuming that you are still around another "year down the road",

do you think you will be richer, poorer or in the same boat?

Kinda the same thing eh

[phuketandsee]

Nope,

The baht is too high

safety is still a concern

flooding hasn't been prevented

now there's a draught

maybe the fishery ban comes

Russians won't come back

Chinese have less baht and a crisis coming

Thailand became too expensive for the quality delivered.

A good list but missing a couple of major issues.

[IAMHERE]

Thailand has spent the last year or so alienating the west and cuddling up to China/Russia. So goes Russia/China so goes their new friend Thailand. I foresee several bad years for China and Russia.

[MockingJay]

Would be like asking if we think that North Korea is more of a fun place this year than last year...

[slipperylobster]

It's topsy turvy....

Easy credit/corrupt kickbacks to loan officers for credit to blacklisted Thais, mismanagement of government money, drought, and farmers in crises (rubber and rice)....are all coming to the inevitable crash. Add to that the failure of the Chinese economy. Most bailouts on loans (second mortgages) are from Chinese moneylenders (excessively high interest). The lower class is getting scammed out of family property and agricultural income. Big money/business has moved in to build tract housing on foreclosed family farmland. It is all over for the average/below average Joe here. Our income is 10 times higher than the average (say 100,000 baht vict 10,000 baht a month)...yet the system is set up against foreign land ownership. They would rather have Chinese moneylenders forceably takeover land (possible kickbacks to banks). It was a wild wide for many Thai's....in the past 15 years or so. Land price ballooned....second mortgages made easy, cars and luxury items bought...could not pay...then finally the moneylender scam. All gone.

Over priced for me (beginning to be)...so how do Thai's feel? It must be boiling.

Edited January 12, 2016 by slipperylobster

[Ulic]

Agriculture will be down with the drought, lots and lots of Russians at Soi 5 Immigration, Baht is a little overvalued but if it drops 10 percent that will be enough for tourists to keep viewing Thailand as good value. Not cheap like before but a good alternative to North Africa/Middle East. Safety better than North Africa/ Middle East. Not many places for Russians to go now if they want sun. In short I think Thailand's economy will move sideways. A glimmer of resilience here and there, on going struggles in many areas.