Will self driving cars ever take off in Thailand?

[JaseTheBass]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

[Don Mega]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track.

The google cars are being tested on public roads.

[cumgranosalum]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

So as above, where do you place yourself on that scale?

[White Christmas13]

They have self driving busses minivans and taxis already

most drivers are asleep or on drugs anyway

[Jingthing]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track.

The google cars are being tested on public roads.

The complexity is amazing already and advancing. Yes it will be safer than humans no doubt.

[WitawatWatawit]

This is turning into an enjoyable thread.

My 2 satang's worth: In any country, a car is often an extension of a driver's personality. I can't see self-entitled wealthy hi-so brats swapping their Lamborghinis for a carefully-paced, stick-to-the-limit self-drive car. There would be no penis envy factor. But they would be perfect around here on the darkside for all those hopeless old foreign drunks in the bars.

Nah, just on lifestyle factors alone, let alone impractical Thai road systems, they would not work in this country. Too much logic needed for starters to provide the right conditions and infrastructure. I would expect that for the most part, Thailand will skip this great transport revolution for whatever next comes into being.

[cumgranosalum]

This is turning into an enjoyable thread.

My 2 satang's worth: In any country, a car is often an extension of a driver's personality. I can't see self-entitled wealthy hi-so brats swapping their Lamborghinis for a carefully-paced, stick-to-the-limit self-drive car. There would be no penis envy factor. But they would be perfect around here on the darkside for all those hopeless old foreign drunks in the bars.

Nah, just on lifestyle factors alone, let alone impractical Thai road systems, they would not work in this country. Too much logic needed for starters to provide the right conditions and infrastructure. I would expect that for the most part, Thailand will skip this great transport revolution for whatever next comes into being.

I think you are making the mistake of thinking that self-drive will be/look like and just replace ordinary cars - like the change from horses or in Thailand boats, the culture of personal transport and the various symbols, icons and fetishes we associate with the motorcar will change or fade and be replaced. I think this will become evident when we see how these contraptions are actually used in practice. like the mobile telephone I can see self driving cars morphong into something quite different from todays concepts of what a "car" is or does.

For instance if they became commonplace then taxes etc might render private car ownership too expensive for most, so any owner-driven vehicle might be a sign of wealth...or of course they could be banned altogether and oneupmanship would have to find an alternative release.

for instance it seems likely to me that the range of activities, facilities and services available to passengers in self driving vehicles could become an important aspect. With no traffic to worry about thy could become pods of entertainment or even workplaces...how about the self-drive motorhome for long-distance journeys? Scheduled stops that you don't have to worry about missing with full onboard catering? Individual pods of particular/multiple destinations, commuter pods, shared vehicles.....Shuttles for visitors and customers.

I reckon taxis will become redundant and the cult of the car too will become a thing of the past.

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[JaseTheBass]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

So as above, where do you place yourself on that scale?

Am I a more aware driver than most Asian women? Definitely. But I would like to see every vehicle driven by computers here for the good of everyone here.

[cumgranosalum]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

So as above, where do you place yourself on that scale?

Am I a more aware driver than most Asian women? Definitely. But I would like to see every vehicle driven by computers here for the good of everyone here.

Wow! - 3-in-1; Misogynist, racist and technophobic...all in one line...

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[lonewolf99]

I have spent my life time with bloody computers...... I mean computers that have to "do something" not the one you type on to spout nonsense on TV, buy tickets, send e-mails etc. So to put it one way, they are less predictable than a baby's ar*e. Ready to sh*t the bed any moment.

I have also spent a lifetime in the real world..... surrounded by systems that are ready to fail and astound you at a moments notice. They are called - people.

Get one - the people - to totally rely on the other - the computer, and you now have a recipe for disaster. Look at all the Engineering know how that goes into space exploration and still... just when they want the satellite / rover to do its tricks...bingo it jams, locks up, does not communicate, solar panels are wrinkled its facing the wrong way the list goes on. And you want to sit in a car with no one at the wheel.......oooooyaaahh

Remember this, water and electricity don't mix.....But the best computer is still the one between your ears working with electrical impulses in a watery gooo....so how does the brain really work?

[JaseTheBass]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

So as above, where do you place yourself on that scale?

Am I a more aware driver than most Asian women? Definitely. But I would like to see every vehicle driven by computers here for the good of everyone here.

Wow! - 3-in-1; Misogynist, racist and technophobic...all in one line...

Technophobic? How did you work that one out?

[lonewolf99]

Further to my last how does a computer know what to do at U turns on Sukhumvit Road...??? how do you even begin to program the concept ?

[cumgranosalum]

I have spent my life time with bloody computers...... I mean computers that have to "do something" not the one you type on to spout nonsense on TV, buy tickets, send e-mails etc. So to put it one way, they are less predictable than a baby's ar*e. Ready to sh*t the bed any moment.

I have also spent a lifetime in the real world..... surrounded by systems that are ready to fail and astound you at a moments notice. They are called - people.

Get one - the people - to totally rely on the other - the computer, and you now have a recipe for disaster. Look at all the Engineering know how that goes into space exploration and still... just when they want the satellite / rover to do its tricks...bingo it jams, locks up, does not communicate, solar panels are wrinkled its facing the wrong way the list goes on. And you want to sit in a car with no one at the wheel.......oooooyaaahh

Remember this, water and electricity don't mix.....But the best computer is still the one between your ears working with electrical impulses in a watery gooo....so how does the brain really work?

QED?

Someone who thinks he's the only one who's spent "all his life with computers" - this poster clearly has never heard of human error either ....or that some brains work better than others...or so it would seem

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[cumgranosalum]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

So as above, where do you place yourself on that scale?

Am I a more aware driver than most Asian women? Definitely. But I would like to see every vehicle driven by computers here for the good of everyone here.

Wow! - 3-in-1; Misogynist, racist and technophobic...all in one line...

Technophobic? How did you work that one out?

at least you don't attempt to deny the first two.

[cumgranosalum]

For the believers:

You're driving along a road in very light rain. There's a sizeable puddle ahead. Can you drive through it safely? Is it likely to make you aquaplane? likely pull the car swiftly to the side? or is it more likely it's a massive hole that's going to rip a wheel off, cause you to crash, and kill you?

Now think about all the possible variables that you will analyze, in a fraction of a second, in order to come to a decision as to what to do... and think about how many of them might be actively measured, logged, and instantly searchable, and processable, by AI...

For example, you've noticed there's an unusual amount of leaves on the road and/or surrounding terrain - so logically, this light rain was a heavy storm only recently - perhaps only moments ago. You've noticed some patchwork on the road earlier, so you're aware the surface is possibly prone to potholing. Then, the big one.. there's a car on the side of the road 100M in front, with what looks to be a missing wheel.

I appreciate not everyone will understand the challenge of making a computer this aware, but trust me, it's flocking monumental.

The only safe way is to let them drive very slowly, overly cautiously, and stop whenever they're not exactly sure.... Sounds a bit like geriatric, half blind, fully deaf, recalcitrant horses to me - not passenger car transport, as we expect it to be.

So the computers are only on par with the average Asian woman driver at the moment? I'm sure they'll be better than them within a few years.

So as above, where do you place yourself on that scale?

Am I a more aware driver than most Asian women? Definitely. But I would like to see every vehicle driven by computers here for the good of everyone here.

Wow! - 3-in-1; Misogynist, racist and technophobic...all in one line...

Technophobic? How did you work that one out?

That's a point - how do you rate yourself against horses? They can work out a slippery surface too.

[IMHO]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track. I even saw one stupid stunt about one that could recognise people shaped objects in its path. They shoved a shop manniquin on wheels in front of the car and it immediately swerved around it...great !!! In a real traffic situation, right into oncoming traffic...!!!

Many of these cars work by detecting what is going on around them. In Thailand this can be at best described as totally manic. The car would never leave the kerb side. When you even have someone pushing what is actually a kitchen on wheels with boiling oil, water and an open fire burning away on it right in the middle of mad rush hour traffic. Insurance companies are going to have a field day.....remember there is no laws about litigation here, the fallang is to blame everytime.....

I know who is behind these madcap ideas...lazy computer geeks that never lift their heads from a PC Screen, phone screen or laptop and live in a geeky techy bubble. The fact that they want to be totally fixated on their computerised devise during their every waking moment does not tie in with sitting in a car and having to bleeding well concentrate on something important, and they have never been outside California never mind drive in Bangkok.

Maybe in 2525 when humans have morphed into a fat cyclops blob, with no legs and one arm with one finger and a thumb on the end of it, jabbing away at some inane Crystal game for 6 years olds.

So in answer to JT.....No

Looks like Lonewolf has been on his own too long and needs to catch up on the latest developments in driverless cars......and maybe a bit of computer and IT while he's at it?

I agree. The entire idea of an AI system is that it learns. And even though I consider myself a good driver (no accident yet in 20yr driving cars), I can't imagine ever having a percentage of the experience that millions of autonomous cars would have after only a few days of learning on Thai roads. All cars are linked through an AI mainframe. For instance in the pothole example by IMHO, your autonomous car would never have driven through it if an autonomous car before had already made that mistake. Sure, the transition period maybe a bit messy, but I don't think that will last more than a few weeks at the most. By then the combined time of all the autonomous cars in a certain area would add up to decades or centuries of individual driver's experience.

Your vision of it works - if they all have a 100% stable data network everywhere, and are centrally coordinated, logged and analysed as a whole, it has a chance. But realistically, if you think it out fully (and I'm skipping to the punchline here) the only way that's actually going to happen is if people universally abandon the notion of car ownership altogether, and everything on the road is a taxi / courier / bus.

There's simply no way that's going to happen in the timeframe being discussed in this thread.

[cumgranosalum]

Every "driverless" car I have seen on television is on a track. I even saw one stupid stunt about one that could recognise people shaped objects in its path. They shoved a shop manniquin on wheels in front of the car and it immediately swerved around it...great !!! In a real traffic situation, right into oncoming traffic...!!!

Many of these cars work by detecting what is going on around them. In Thailand this can be at best described as totally manic. The car would never leave the kerb side. When you even have someone pushing what is actually a kitchen on wheels with boiling oil, water and an open fire burning away on it right in the middle of mad rush hour traffic. Insurance companies are going to have a field day.....remember there is no laws about litigation here, the fallang is to blame everytime.....

I know who is behind these madcap ideas...lazy computer geeks that never lift their heads from a PC Screen, phone screen or laptop and live in a geeky techy bubble. The fact that they want to be totally fixated on their computerised devise during their every waking moment does not tie in with sitting in a car and having to bleeding well concentrate on something important, and they have never been outside California never mind drive in Bangkok.

Maybe in 2525 when humans have morphed into a fat cyclops blob, with no legs and one arm with one finger and a thumb on the end of it, jabbing away at some inane Crystal game for 6 years olds.

So in answer to JT.....No

Looks like Lonewolf has been on his own too long and needs to catch up on the latest developments in driverless cars......and maybe a bit of computer and IT while he's at it?

I agree. The entire idea of an AI system is that it learns. And even though I consider myself a good driver (no accident yet in 20yr driving cars), I can't imagine ever having a percentage of the experience that millions of autonomous cars would have after only a few days of learning on Thai roads. All cars are linked through an AI mainframe. For instance in the pothole example by IMHO, your autonomous car would never have driven through it if an autonomous car before had already made that mistake. Sure, the transition period maybe a bit messy, but I don't think that will last more than a few weeks at the most. By then the combined time of all the autonomous cars in a certain area would add up to decades or centuries of individual driver's experience.

Your vision of it works - if they all have a 100% stable data network everywhere, and are centrally coordinated, logged and analysed as a whole, it has a chance. But realistically, if you think it out fully (and I'm skipping to the punchline here) the only way that's actually going to happen is if people universally abandon the notion of car ownership altogether, and everything on the road is a taxi / courier / bus.

There's simply no way that's going to happen in the timeframe being discussed in this thread.

What "timeframe"is being discussed - I don't see any mention of a timeframe? - and yes, regardless, it may well happen.

And if you think of "timeframes" - think about how long it took us to adopt and adapt to a world of PCs and phones....20 years.

Normally it takes a combination of environment, events and technology to effect this sort of change and it a can be very quick.... given the public attitude to fossil fuels - regardless of price - and the increasing strain on transport infrastructure take up could be rapid.

As for your concerns about "stable data" - I don't see this a s a problem as the system will have both network and unit existence and of course duplicate/backup systems for safety.....that's how the internet was originally conceived.

As I said, I don't think the actual form or changes are that easy to predict (or discount) as it has been shown time and again that how new concepts actually materialise can often been unpredicted and surprising.

the invention is one thing...how we use it is another.

Edited January 9, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[fiddlehead]

The tuk tuk drivers in Phuket won't know who to beat up.

[chris2004]

A driverless car might be able to cope with driving down a motorway with minimal traffic but i can't ever see how they could deal with a busy intersection with traffic, bikes etc coming from all directions.

[JaseTheBass]

A driverless car might be able to cope with driving down a motorway with minimal traffic but i can't ever see how they could deal with a busy intersection with traffic, bikes etc coming from all directions.

The cars would talk to each other - that bit is easy. Admittedly, bikes would be a bigger problem to solve.

In Asia, I could imagine driverless cars only functioning (initially, at least) on major roads and in major urban areas. It'll take a while for tuk tuks, decrepit scooters and cut & shut trucks to fall out of favour in Prathet Baan Nok.

[Gonsalviz]

It took them decades to trust microwave ovens. A large percentage still won't use them.

[Jingthing]

A driverless car might be able to cope with driving down a motorway with minimal traffic but i can't ever see how they could deal with a busy intersection with traffic, bikes etc coming from all directions.

That was the root of my question. These are coming to the west, no doubt. What they're not there yet with (among other things) include driving in heavy rain and other more complex conditions. But the developers claim they are confident they are developing software that will "evolve" and learn over time to deal with such conditions well. So assuming they get there in the west with the more complex, it still won't be as complex/chaotic as Thailand, and other places. But based on the premise that the software will evolve to deal with more and more complexity, if it can evolve to deal with heavy rain (assuming it will which is a fair assumption) couldn't it just be a matter of MORE time / "evolution" to eventually be able to deal with Thai conditions?

Edited January 10, 2016 by Jingthing

[cumgranosalum]

A driverless car might be able to cope with driving down a motorway with minimal traffic but i can't ever see how they could deal with a busy intersection with traffic, bikes etc coming from all directions.

You seem to share the belief I mentioned earlier with other posters who just find it inconceivable that their "driving skills" are in fact no greater than a mere man-made machine.

[canthai55]

If there was any advantage, race cars would already be doing so. No pedestrians, everyone going the same direction, closed circuit. We have not even come close to coming close to coming close to what the human mind can do. The king of multitasking (well, most people) They say that modern mobile phones have more computing power than the first space flights. Mine I would not trust to take the garbage out.

[Jingthing]

The advantage is that it will be significantly safer and also free people from the stress and tedium that comprises much of the modern driving experience.

[Inyourendo]

It cannot be any worse than the already most dangerous country to drive in...

[cumgranosalum]

The advantage is that it will be significantly safer and also free people from the stress and tedium that comprises much of the modern driving experience.

...and hopefully take the wheel ot of the hands of those convinced their driving "skills" are unreplicatable by a computer!

[Jingthing]

Baby boomer Murcans will drive this revolution. Can't see at night? The car sees!

[seedy]

One Troll / Flaming post removed

Please keep it Civil

[Jingthing]

I would prefer a computer to the folk that are in control of 2 or 4 wheels in LOS..

This point I didn't think of. It could be about relative safety. The accident rates couldn't be made as low as the potential in the US if driverless was widely adopted but it could likely be relatively much lower than it is now.