Scottish bank's advice: Sell everything

[webfact]

Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
by Jim Boulden

"Sell everything."

(CNN)That harrowing advice is from The Royal Bank of Scotland, which has warned of a "cataclysmic year" ahead for markets and advised clients to head for the exit. Do not wait. Do not pass go.

"Sell everything except high quality bonds," warned Andrew Roberts in a note this week.

He said the bank's red flags for 2016 -- falling oil, volatility in China, shrinking world trade, rising debt, weak corporate loans and deflation -- had all been seen in just the first week of trading.

Full story: http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/index.html

-- CNN 2016-01-13

[TheCruncher]

Sounds like sensible advise

[lovelomsak]

i like the (return the capital ,not return on capital) I already did that everything now in government protected quaranteed investments. not great returns but returns none the less.

[TheCruncher]

i like the (return the capital ,not return on capital) I already did that everything now in government protected quaranteed investments. not great returns but returns none the less.

I hope that you realise that this time the government is likely the enemy rather than the protector.

First thing to do would be to move everything out of reach of the government.

[trogers]

i like the (return the capital ,not return on capital) I already did that everything now in government protected quaranteed investments. not great returns but returns none the less.

Governments guarantee interest rates, but can dilute your capital by printing more money to pay you...?

[craigt3365]

One of the major brokers is saying if stocks fall a bit more, it's a great time to buy. Especially European stocks as they are priced a bit lower.

I read a great article about forecasting recessions. The consensus was economists rarely forecast reliably! LOL

[Prbkk]

So many people buy not on the basis of fundamental value or even what the value might be at a point in the future but rather on what they believe others will pay. The worst kind of speculation and so common in markets with a focus on share price gain rather than dividend, ie the USA and China

Not that RBS has a great track record in forecasting anything of significance.

[lovelomsak]

i like the (return the capital ,not return on capital) I already did that everything now in government protected quaranteed investments. not great returns but returns none the less.

Governments guarantee interest rates, but can dilute your capital by printing more money to pay you...?

You are probably right. But I am seeing a steady growth. The monies I invested from real estate has grown faster than real estate has grown. Could sell investments now and buy back same real estate and have money left over.So even if the money has lost value I have more of it than those who sat on their real estate. This is relative to where I am from and not other places. Now i feel the stock market is very dangerous for most people to invest. I know many people who live off the market.They are fairly low profile now. Lifestyle is changing. That said I am sure guys like Naam with all their knowledge will still prosper.in the market.

[pedro01]

So many people buy not on the basis of fundamental value or even what the value might be at a point in the future but rather on what they believe others will pay. The worst kind of speculation and so common in markets with a focus on share price gain rather than dividend, ie the USA and China

Not that RBS has a great track record in forecasting anything of significance.

99% of people buy stocks/bonds/futures because they believe others will buy after them and push price up.

Unless you are spreading or looking for dividends, there is no other reason to buy. You buy because you think price will go up. Price will only go up if others buy after you.

It's not the worst kind of speculation, it's the ONLY kind of speculation.

[Gsxrnz]

So many people buy not on the basis of fundamental value or even what the value might be at a point in the future but rather on what they believe others will pay. The worst kind of speculation and so common in markets with a focus on share price gain rather than dividend, ie the USA and China

Not that RBS has a great track record in forecasting anything of significance.

I agree. And that's how money is made (or lost) in the markets. The whole thing is just one giant game of Texas Holdem.

Anybody who shorted oil at 65 is gotta be happy with forecasts of 20 floating around.

[Credo]

It must be time for someone to start a war. Obama doesn't seem to be so inclined. Maybe Putin? Maybe little fat boy, Kim?

[trogers]

So many people buy not on the basis of fundamental value or even what the value might be at a point in the future but rather on what they believe others will pay. The worst kind of speculation and so common in markets with a focus on share price gain rather than dividend, ie the USA and China

Not that RBS has a great track record in forecasting anything of significance.

99% of people buy stocks/bonds/futures because they believe others will buy after them and push price up.

Unless you are spreading or looking for dividends, there is no other reason to buy. You buy because you think price will go up. Price will only go up if others buy after you.

It's not the worst kind of speculation, it's the ONLY kind of speculation.

The theory of The Greater Fool. Ever present in every bubble of any type of assets.

The only guiding landmark is the graph line of long term values to see how far the bubble has been inflated, or depressed.

[JHolmesJr]

Sell everything

And move to Pattaya?

[smedly]

I am actually quite shocked by this RBS statement, sounds more like they have an agenda and interested parties have perhaps shorted the market, dangerous thin line they are walking, good advise or scare mongering to create a panic and orchestrate a collapse

[JHolmesJr]

I am actually quite shocked by this RBS statement, sounds more like they have an agenda and interested parties have perhaps shorted the market, dangerous thin line they are walking, good advise or scare mongering to create a panic and orchestrate a collapse

Yes…disgusting….far more honourable to talk up the markets, because you have an agenda…stir up fake optimism mongering to create irrational exuberance and orchestrate a lining of your own pockets, via sales/brokering commissions etc.

Edited January 13, 2016 by JHolmesJr

[Chicog]

Not that RBS has a great track record in forecasting anything of significance.

Nail --> Head.

[Baerboxer]

I am actually quite shocked by this RBS statement, sounds more like they have an agenda and interested parties have perhaps shorted the market, dangerous thin line they are walking, good advise or scare mongering to create a panic and orchestrate a collapse

Yes…disgusting….far more honourable to talk up the markets, because you have an agenda…stir up fake optimism mongering to create irrational exuberance and orchestrate a lining of your own pockets, via sales/brokering commissions etc.

RBS - saved from bankruptcy and dissolution by the British tax payer. A great example of the old maxim - safe as a bank...................... not.

Not exactly the greatest experts on the planet. at anything.

Sure it's looking like a turbulent 2016, and they're following what Soros and some other punters have already said. They are not thought leaders in anyway shape or form.

[jagfx]

There are certainly warning signs that there may be financial problems looming, especially with the Chinese issues. Not sure what the RBS's agenda is here, maybe they got caught with their pants down in '08, or they are going to come out with some new recession proof financial product in the next few weeks, and starting the scare campaign early. Who knows. I'm certainly not looking to buy anything other than maybe SJB (Google it) or possibly looking at a long term position on oil which is near historic lows. Both long term buys though. Interesting times ahead and I do hope that the RBS is wrong with their outlook...

[Geordie59]

Sell everything, and then what? Put your cash in RBS so they can squander it away again - after paying out the big bonus's of course.

[empireboy]

I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like... Buy when everyone's fearful and when everyone's greedily buying, sell. It may well soon prove to be a time to buy.

[TheCruncher]

I am actually quite shocked by this RBS statement, sounds more like they have an agenda and interested parties have perhaps shorted the market, dangerous thin line they are walking, good advise or scare mongering to create a panic and orchestrate a collapse

Yes…disgusting….far more honourable to talk up the markets, because you have an agenda…stir up fake optimism mongering to create irrational exuberance and orchestrate a lining of your own pockets, via sales/brokering commissions etc.

RBS - saved from bankruptcy and dissolution by the British tax payer. A great example of the old maxim - safe as a bank...................... not.

Not exactly the greatest experts on the planet. at anything.

Sure it's looking like a turbulent 2016, and they're following what Soros and some other punters have already said. They are not thought leaders in anyway shape or form.

As far as I'm aware ALL the so called expert investment banks in the US have been saved by taxpayers money, so what's the difference with RBS?

[Credo]

The difference is that those banks aren't forecasting the Apocalypse. RBS is.

[slipperylobster]

Absurd. Causing nothing put panic selling, allowing the wealthy to sell short.

Scotland hasn't a clue about whats going to happen.

[TheCruncher]

The difference is that those banks aren't forecasting the Apocalypse. RBS is.

No those banks are calling you to invest more money, then bet against you, the major reason why 2007 is a fact and probably is in the process of repeating itself though at a much larger scale.

[Basil B]

OMG...

I think they must have sold everything yesterday, and now trying to created a stock market fall to by back on the cheap...

[jippytum]

Royal Bank of Scotland have such a poor financial record i would not trust them to forecast this afternoons weather

[partington]

Royal Bank of Scotland have such a poor financial record i would not trust them to forecast this afternoons weather

Yes take their advice:

"On 19 January 2009, the British Government [...] announced its intention to convert the preference shares in RBS that it had acquired in October 2008 to ordinary shares. This would remove the 12% coupon payment (£600m p.a) on the shares but would increase the state's holding in the bank from 58% to 70%.^[32]

On the same day RBS released a trading statement in which it expected to post full-year trading losses (before writedowns) of between £7bn and £8bn. The group also announced writedowns on goodwills (primarily related to the takeover of Dutch bank ABN-AMRO) of around £20bn. The combined total of £28bn would be the biggest ever annual loss in UK corporate history (the actual figure was £24.1bn). As a result, the group's share price fell over 66% in one day to 10.9p per share, from a 52-week high of 354p per share, itself a drop of 97%.^[32] Some commentators called this the Blue Monday Crash"

How could they be wrong?

[Jingthing]

Sell everything

And move to Pattaya?

Condo for sale!

[kiniyow]

Just when did any Bank have your best interest in mind?

[Colabamumbai]

The difference is that those banks aren't forecasting the Apocalypse. RBS is.

No those banks are calling you to invest more money, then bet against you, the major reason why 2007 is a fact and probably is in the process of repeating itself though at a much larger scale.

I tend to agree with you, many economies are in serious trouble, including the U.S. of course no one will admit to it. I follow economics and politics worldwide and have done so just out of personal interest for twenty years.

They just continue to print money.