2015 was hottest year on record, say some scientists

[webfact]

2015 was hottest year on record, say some scientists



WASHINGTON: -- Two US government agencies say last year was the hottest on record.

Data from space agency NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that 2015’s average temperature was up on the the previous year’s record.

NASA scientist Comton Tucker explained why.

“This is due to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which acts as an insulating blanket around the earth and traps outgoing longwave radiation. It’s just like putting an extra blanket on your bed at night. It keeps you warmer, and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere keeps the Earth warmer”.

Scientists admit the increase was driven in part by a natural Pacific weather cycle called El Nino that warms the ocean surface every two to seven years.

But they say the main drivers behind the rise were human activities. They are highlighting the urgency of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius, as agreed during December’s Global climate talks in Paris.

In the US, some Republican lawmakers and those skeptical of human-caused climate change have pointed to a slowdown in temperature rise after the powerful El Nino in 1998 as a sign that climate change is not a serious problem.

The current El Nino started towards the end of 2015 and is expected to last until spring 2016.

-- (c) Copyright Euronews 2016-01-21

[OMGImInPattaya]

And that polar bear is ready...already has his white color to reflect the heat...like buying a white car in Thailand.

[trogers]

Let's burn off the remaining forests and pain the earth white.

[canuckamuck]

a strong el nino year, Just like 1997-98. We all knew this year would be a spike. I would love to see if the official amount it surpassed the last high is over the amount of uncertainty they have in the calculation of the average. It usually isn't.

Whatever happens we can be sure the alarmists will ride this insignificant piece of data like a Prius.

[IAMHERE]

" on record "

Like all the other years don't count.

Some of That dark matter out there has aligned,just like the planets do, and is drawing more sunlight to earth is all.

[klauskunkel]

2015 was hottest year on record, say some scientists

2016 was hottest year on record

2017 was hottest year on record

2018 was hottest year on record

2019 was hottest year on record

2020 record player broke

[trogers]

2015 was hottest year on record, say some scientists

2016 was hottest year on record

2017 was hottest year on record

2018 was hottest year on record

2019 was hottest year on record

2020 record player broke

Didn't break. Melted!!!

[craigt3365]

a strong el nino year, Just like 1997-98. We all knew this year would be a spike. I would love to see if the official amount it surpassed the last high is over the amount of uncertainty they have in the calculation of the average. It usually isn't.

Whatever happens we can be sure the alarmists will ride this insignificant piece of data like a Prius.

It's more than just a year, the past decade was the warmest on record. From 2014 (which also set a record):

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/24/warmest-years-record-un-global-warming

13 of the 14 warmest years on record occurred this century, according to the UN.

...................

2001-2010 was the warmest decade on record, the WMO noted, and added that the last three decades had been warmer than the previous one.

The WMO reiterated its earlier finding that 2013 was the sixth warmest on record, with temperatures 0.5C above the long-term average (1961-1990).

Great chart. Impossible to argue with the data. Though we can argue about why the earth is warming. Though evidence strongly points to man made sources.

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

The year 2014 ranks as Earth’s warmest since 1880, according to two separate analyses by NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists.

The 10 warmest years in the instrumental record, with the exception of 1998, have now occurred since 2000. This trend continues a long-term warming of the planet, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

In an independent analysis of the raw data, also released Friday, NOAA scientists also found 2014 to be the warmest on record.

[tartempion]

We humans are NOT responsible for this, we DO care for the planet we live on!

[canuckamuck]

a strong el nino year, Just like 1997-98. We all knew this year would be a spike. I would love to see if the official amount it surpassed the last high is over the amount of uncertainty they have in the calculation of the average. It usually isn't.

Whatever happens we can be sure the alarmists will ride this insignificant piece of data like a Prius.

It's more than just a year, the past decade was the warmest on record. From 2014 (which also set a record):

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/24/warmest-years-record-un-global-warming

13 of the 14 warmest years on record occurred this century, according to the UN.

...................

2001-2010 was the warmest decade on record, the WMO noted, and added that the last three decades had been warmer than the previous one.

The WMO reiterated its earlier finding that 2013 was the sixth warmest on record, with temperatures 0.5C above the long-term average (1961-1990).

Great chart. Impossible to argue with the data. Though we can argue about why the earth is warming. Though evidence strongly points to man made sources.

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

The year 2014 ranks as Earth’s warmest since 1880, according to two separate analyses by NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists.

The 10 warmest years in the instrumental record, with the exception of 1998, have now occurred since 2000. This trend continues a long-term warming of the planet, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

In an independent analysis of the raw data, also released Friday, NOAA scientists also found 2014 to be the warmest on record.

Well of course all the hottest years were in the last 20 years or so. Since 1940 the avg temp has gone up by half a degree. So all of the years currently will be hotter than years gone by. But in the last 20 years we are looking at temperature increases in the 0.0x degrees. Really unmeasurable differences, unless you disregard the level of accuracy there is in determining the actual global temperature for the year. Which I believe is around 0.1 degree. What is alarming is the lack of warming predicted by all of the models, And if the models are all wrong then why are we investing in the hysteria?

[Enoon]

Many years ago I remember reading something which, at that time, was stated as just a simple fact.

I don't remember it has having provoked any controversy. I think I read it in an Industrial history book.

It said that as much carbon dioxide had been put into the atmosphere, since 1850, as had been put in during all of mans previous presence on the planet (about 200,000 years). I think it was being used as an indicator of mans "dynamism".

I didn't (and don't) know an awful lot about chemistry, but It seemed a bit.........unhealthy.

[Guest]

Total solar irradiation is rarely on the news, even thought we have collected data directly from the Sun, for decades.

http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/tsi-data/

[trogers]

Total solar irradiation is rarely on the news, even thought we have collected data directly from the Sun, for decades.

Screenshot 2016-01-21 13.14.04.png

http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/tsi-data/

The reason I support making a snowball Earth.

[RickBradford]

This is an important result, and everyone should sit up and take notice.

The renewed warming, and the extra CO2 that industry is giving us for free, is doing wonderful things for global agriculture, and helping us feed Earth's countless billions.

Let's hope and pray that predictions of a mini ice age to hit over the next decade are wrong, or we'll all (the poor in particular) be in trouble.

[Andaman Al]

2015 was hottest year on record, say some scientists

Say 'some' scientists ???? Temperature is an objective measurement, why only 'some' scientists. It either is or it isn't, no maybe's.

I saw an excellent article that showed why most temperatures indicate higher now than 50-100 years ago. Most temperature recording stations and met stations that the GW lobby rely on are now in the middle of urban concrete jungles where ambient temperatures are naturally higher anyway due to the heat absorbed then reflected from concrete.

To describe a gas that constitutes 0.04% of the atmosphere as a 'blanket' surrounding the earth is entirely irresponsible of the esteemed NASA scientist.

[mgjackson69]

A few things of note:

The article says "some scientists", which is being honest. "Hottest on record" would seem to be pretty objective, until one starts defining "on record".

The two entities claiming "hottest on record" are US government agencies...thus will promote the agenda of the current administration.

When mentioning the "other side", I like that the article uses the phrasing "...those skeptical of human-caused climate change..." (emphasis added). Typically those skeptics are characterized as having the position of "climate change is not happening", which is intellectually dishonest.

I have not talked to anyone who believes that our climate is not changing. Granted, it depends upon where one is in the world, but in the temperate zones it is very evident.

The disagreement is how much is natural cycle and how much is caused by human activities.

[tezzainoz]

Scientist will say anything that keeps money flowing in to their pockets

England suffered the coldest winter

and even at my home in Australia they tell me they had the coldest winter in years

[goatfarmer]

a strong el nino year, Just like 1997-98. We all knew this year would be a spike. I would love to see if the official amount it surpassed the last high is over the amount of uncertainty they have in the calculation of the average. It usually isn't.

Whatever happens we can be sure the alarmists will ride this insignificant piece of data like a Prius.

Indeed. No numbers quoted in the report. Only a narrative.

[mgjackson69]

Scientist will say anything that keeps money flowing in to their pockets

England suffered the coldest winter

and even at my home in Australia they tell me they had the coldest winter in years

That is why the correct terminology is "climate change" rather than "global warming".

"Global warming" was a scare phrase that quickly lost credibility after a few "record cold winters".

[Pimay1]

It's more than just a year, the past decade was the warmest on record. From 2014 (which also set a record):

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/24/warmest-years-record-un-global-warming

13 of the 14 warmest years on record occurred this century, according to the UN.

...................

2001-2010 was the warmest decade on record, the WMO noted, and added that the last three decades had been warmer than the previous one.

The WMO reiterated its earlier finding that 2013 was the sixth warmest on record, with temperatures 0.5C above the long-term average (1961-1990).

Great chart. Impossible to argue with the data. Though we can argue about why the earth is warming. Though evidence strongly points to man made sources.

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

The year 2014 ranks as Earth’s warmest since 1880, according to two separate analyses by NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists.

The 10 warmest years in the instrumental record, with the exception of 1998, have now occurred since 2000. This trend continues a long-term warming of the planet, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

In an independent analysis of the raw data, also released Friday, NOAA scientists also found 2014 to be the warmest on record.

Well of course all the hottest years were in the last 20 years or so. Since 1940 the avg temp has gone up by half a degree. So all of the years currently will be hotter than years gone by. But in the last 20 years we are looking at temperature increases in the 0.0x degrees. Really unmeasurable differences, unless you disregard the level of accuracy there is in determining the actual global temperature for the year. Which I believe is around 0.1 degree. What is alarming is the lack of warming predicted by all of the models, And if the models are all wrong then why are we investing in the hysteria?

Post removed due to too many posts. Top MIT scientist mocks claim that 2015 was the hottest year on record.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/01/21/mit-scientist-disputed-claim-2015-is-hottest-year/

[RickBradford]

What is alarming is the lack of warming predicted by all of the models, And if the models are all wrong then why are we investing in the hysteria?

Because it is the hysteria which is the important goal for the activists and many of the politicians.

In the climate "science" space, evidence-based policy has been replaced by policy-based evidence.

Edited January 22, 2016 by RickBradford

[up2u2]

Global Surface Temperature increase is not recorded as absolute temperature but as the Temperature Trend Anomaly . Surface Temperature Data is collected from all over the Earth and each main Global Authority use independent mathematical analysis to produce their results. So you will expect a slight variation between the Authorities.

NASA/GISS, NOAA, UKMet Office, Berkeley Earth and Japan Met are the main Global Authorities on Surface Temperature analysis.

Also Satellite data is collected to corroborate the Global Temperature Trend Anomaly. The leading Authority here is Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) headed up by Prof. Carl Mears.

Results for 2015 from NASA:

IPCC modelling is proving to be more accurate than thought. If anything it is showing to be a little conservative.

The next Global Ice Age (Interglacial) (Milankovitch Cycle) isn't expected for another 7000 years so good luck waiting for that to change the Earth's warming. Humans have a 100 years to stop the CO2 level rising past 5^O_C . At +5^Oc the risk of Arctic Methane slurry being released is the greatest threat to Humans. If that occurs the Earth goes on Humans and fauna don't. Although it was triggered by massive lava flows this occurred in the last Mass Extinction

Only 13% of the excess CO₂ released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels will be absorbed by Earth's dwindling vegetation and agriculture. The impacts, increased drought, floods, hurricanes will far outstrip any benefit from increased plant growth.

'Global Warming' and 'Climate Change' are terms scientists have always used. They describe two totally different issues. Global Warming leads to Climate Change. A record breaking cold winter with previously never recorded snow dumps or a ferocious Hurricane with winds never before recorded are entirely consistent with Global Warming / Climate Change modelling expectations.

Richard Lindzen is probably the most discredited commentator(not involved in science research any longer) on Climate Change. Often referred to as 'The most wrongest the longest' on the issue of GW/ CC. His foray into Climate science was an absolute embarrassment. Lindzen and Choi 2009 and 2011. Even Lindzen himself admitted "some stupid mistakes...It was just embarrassing.". It did eventually get 'published' in a South Korean cook book.

Australian Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) "Overall, it was Australia's fifth-warmest year on record with the annual national mean temperature 0.83 °C above average". So I am not sure who 'they' are reporting it was the coldest winter for some time.

GW/CC is based on scientific evidence nothing to do with politics at all.

[RickBradford]

GW/CC is based on scientific evidence nothing to do with politics at all.

Being charitable, that is a quaintly naive point of view. Being more critical, it would be more accurate to say that "Global warming is based on politics, nothing to do with science at all."

After all, it was the wretched Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, who said publicly in 2013: "Let's say that science, some decades from now, said 'we were wrong, it was not about climate', would it not in any case have been good to do many of things you have to do in order to combat climate change?."

Pure politics; zero science.

Edited January 22, 2016 by RickBradford

[up2u2]

GW/CC is based on scientific evidence nothing to do with politics at all.

Being charitable, that is a quaintly naive point of view. Being more critical, it would be more accurate to say that "Global warming is based on politics, nothing to do with science at all."

After all, it was the wretched Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, who said publicly in 2013: "Let's say that science, some decades from now, said 'we were wrong, it was not about climate', would it not in any case have been good to do many of things you have to do in order to combat climate change?."

Pure politics; zero science.

I don't see that her statement is political or scientific. More of an environmental position. Many people actually agree with her view. Cleaner energy less pollution many people see as a good thing GW/CC aside. Over the past 30 years GW/CC has been an ever increasing scientific reality. The more research that is done the more confident scientists have become on the issue. The science is more resolute than ever not based on politics but based on the scientific evidence all pointing in the one direction.

In isolation 2015 being the hottest year on record isn't all that concerning other than it shows the Earth is continuing to heat up due to increased CO₂. Temperatures have been higher all year so it isn't unexpected. There are other indicators that also show the Earth is heating up. 13% per decade reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Extent, glaciers in East Antarctica melting beyond the point of no return and 134 billion metric tons of land ice melting each year, Sea Level rising 72.5mm since 1993. Some of the ice carving in the Arctic was laid down some 10 thousand years ago during the last glaciation so it isn't coming back any time soon. Well not in the next 7000 - 10000 years as the next glaciation cycle begins.

[RickBradford]

I don't see that her statement is political or scientific. More of an environmental position.

Come on. Hedegaard was the EU's senior climate official at the time. To say her statement is not political is absurdly naive. But her statement was not scientific, I grant you.

Many people actually agree with her view.

Many people actually think she is an unqualified nitwit with no capability except that for self-promotion.

[chuckd]

I have a question. As a skeptic, is this 2015 heat wave a fact supported by the 97% or is it supported by the 3%.

Or did they simply concrete around each and every temperature sensor to get the desired result?

[Chicog]

I have a question. As a skeptic, is this 2015 heat wave a fact supported by the 97% or is it supported by the 3%.

Or did they simply concrete around each and every temperature sensor to get the desired result?

"Heat wave" implies something temporary.

Maybe you didn't have a very good maths teacher.

This is what a wave looks like on a graph.

This is what the global temperature looks like on a graph:

I hope that goes some way to explaining this simple concept to you.

Edited January 23, 2016 by Chicog

[mgjackson69]

I have a question. As a skeptic, is this 2015 heat wave a fact supported by the 97% or is it supported by the 3%.

Or did they simply concrete around each and every temperature sensor to get the desired result?

"Heat wave" implies something temporary.

Maybe you didn't have a very good maths teacher.

This is what a wave looks like on a graph.

This is what the global temperature looks like on a graph:

I hope that goes some way to explaining this simple concept to you.

The earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old.

You are taking data from .0000000002709% of the earth's age and trying to demonstrate that as a trend.

Yes, it is a trend....a very short one. As is your graph from x = 3 to x = 5.

It is accepted that the earth has been through multiple cycles of heating and cooling. So if were were able to have data for a meaningful period of the earth's existence, it would likely look very similar to your "wave" example.

[up2u2]

I have a question. As a skeptic, is this 2015 heat wave a fact supported by the 97% or is it supported by the 3%.

Or did they simply concrete around each and every temperature sensor to get the desired result?

As always scientific data and results from that data and the methodology of determining those results is always under intense scrutiny. NASA actually releases the raw data so that any person or institution can quickly download that data. I wouldn't try that at home though. The actual processing and methodology is peer reviewed and published. So it actually forms a scientific Paper or Article. I wouldn't try that at home either.

So in fact as no objection has been received or upheld on the peer reviewed published methodology used then it would be 100% supported by the scientific community.

'Heat Island Effect', elevation, humidity, instrument upgrades and a plethora of criteria are all factored into analysing the data.

ALL countries providing data MUST adhere to strict guidelines and methodology. This is always checked and rechecked.

Here is a data readout for a weather station in Puerto Casado in Paraguay

The most important result is above the last box 'Plumb Box = 0.00 OR NO DIFF'

This occurs when ALL and I mean the ENTIRE historical data from that weather station from day one is compared to all regional weather stations, all national weather station in Paraguay all weather stations in neighbouring nations surrounding Paraguay and finally compared to weather stations throughout the entire globe. At this point the Plumb Box must return a value of 0.00. Confirming the data is in sink and not erroneous. If it does not return a Plumb Box at 0.00 the data is rejected and a team are sent to check and recalibrate the weather stations instruments. Usually a storm or some malfunctioning instruments or an interruption in the data stream.

I am not aware anyone has been concreting the Pacific or Indian Ocean that cover 70% of the Earth and cities in relation to the Earth surface are relatively small but yes heat from concrete is adjusted for.

Hope that helps.

[Chicog]

I have a question. As a skeptic, is this 2015 heat wave a fact supported by the 97% or is it supported by the 3%.

Or did they simply concrete around each and every temperature sensor to get the desired result?

"Heat wave" implies something temporary.

Maybe you didn't have a very good maths teacher.

This is what a wave looks like on a graph.

This is what the global temperature looks like on a graph:

I hope that goes some way to explaining this simple concept to you.

The earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old.

You are taking data from .0000000002709% of the earth's age and trying to demonstrate that as a trend.

Yes, it is a trend....a very short one. As is your graph from x = 3 to x = 5.

It is accepted that the earth has been through multiple cycles of heating and cooling. So if were were able to have data for a meaningful period of the earth's existence, it would likely look very similar to your "wave" example.

Yes there are cyclical changes. What you have to ask yourself is are we interfering with the cyclical changes.

For example:

It appears that through the burning of fossil fuels and filling the atmosphere with carbon, mankind has caused the world to “skip” an ice age, potentially postponing the next one by between 50,000 to 100,000 years. The new research came to this conclusion after modeling the conditions needed to tip the planet into a glacial period. They found that while Earth is at the right point in its orbit around the Sun, the level of carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere is far too high.

<snip>

http://www.iflscience.com/environment/greenhouse-gas-emissions-have-postponed-next-ice-age

Of course, some may call this a good thing.

Edited January 23, 2016 by Scott
Edited for Fair Use