US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[LawrenceChee]

Sorry Guys ....been traveling through London and HK for the last few days pus Korea and it has whacked the time clock out of sync

Back in Thailand and reading the threads ...will respond tomorrow when I get some sleep in

[Publicus]

Interesting statements by Singapore's PM yesterday regarding Russia's role in ASEAN:

SINGAPORE, May 14. /TASS/. Singapore appreciates Russia’s participation in regional affairs and its contribution to ensuring stability in Southeast Asia, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an exclusive interview with TASS First Deputy Director General Mikhail Gusman.

"We very much value Russia as a participant in regional affairs and a constructive contributor to stability and peace in the region," Lee said ahead of his visit to Russia and attending the Russia - ASEAN summit in Sochi.

As I posted in one of these threads recently, the Vietsovpetro JV between Vietnam and Russia is a hugely important oil exploration and production company, and is also directly vested in the SCS disputed claims between Vietnam and China. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietsovpetro)

So, I wonder if we will see some Russian activity with respect to protecting the Vietnam interests in the near future?

http://tass.ru/en/world/875668

Russia matters to Vietnam militarily and in SCS energy resource extraction but VN gets no diplomatic support from Russia. Vietnam matters to Russia as a friendly government toward Moscow that doesn't like CCP China but Russia doesn't get any diplomatic support from Vietnam either. (More on this in a moment.)

As for Asean, Russia is too distant to pose any threat to Asean and Asean certainly poses no threat to Russia. Asean and Russia are good buddies, as we see in Singapore PM Lee's remarks which are representative of Asean member countries toward Russia. There are three important things between Asean and Russia: trade, trade, trade.

Militarily, Vietnam just got the 5th of 6 Kilo-class subs built by Russia that have the Klub missile which is capable of reaching most of southern CCP China. VN also launched this year two Russian built in VN guided missile corvettes. Russia and VN later this month will do their first joint Naval exercises in the SCS out of the newly renovated Cam Ranh Bay naval base.

As you'd noted, Russia has a couple of substantial energy contracts to work in the VN EEZ. So does India. CCP is not pleased about either and although it didn't say much publicly to Russia, it hollered publicly at India a lot while flapping its arms fiercely in a constant barrage of blah blah blah.

Diplomatically Russia and VN haven't any common interests.

VN has depended on Russia for weapons, naval ships and subs especially; some upscale air force fighter jets. But VN wants US serious weapons, missiles especially for shore batteries it wants to set up along its SCS north and central coast and which cover its EEZ no sweat. It wants the US F-15 Fighting Falcon within the next five years. Methinks President Obama is going okay all of it on the 21st when he visits Vietnam, conditional on human rights upgrades and step by step in armaments. (SecDef Carter whispered 'yes' to Sen McCain at McCain's armed services hearing last month to his question about lifting the arms embargo entirely.)

US and Japan have access now to the large Cam Ranh Bay naval facility which easily accommodates aircraft carriers and to the adjoining air force base which accommodates anything the US flies. Cam Ranh Bay is also a new supply and fueling facility for the Pentagon.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter, left, and Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phung Quang Thanh hold a news conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, June 1, 2015.

Image Credit: DoD photo by Glenn Fawcett

Vietnam is astutely triangulating its position among Russia, USA, Japan, in fending off CCP. (Yes that's four but strategists are calling it triangulation....which I suppose is easier than calling it quadrangulation which could sound rather suffocating.)

Lawrence referred briefly one post to the Russia-China historical discomfort and unease -- fundamental distrust -- which is indeed real. Russian strategists fret openly that the CCP army is bigger than the Russian one and they worry about it down the road. CCP still claims Siberia as its territory stolen a hundred years ago and Russia still claims Xinjiang which CCP took over in 1950 by simply marching in to it while Moscow wasn't looking.

Russia is blocking the northern route at its border of the CCP proposed Silk Road from CCP to Europe (which also has a central Asia route and a southern one that are also going nowhere fast, as Iran is not big on the central one going through northern Iran and India is not about to let CCP have the southern route through northern India which CCP claims belongs to it. Focking idiots in Beijing they are.). Russia fears being swallowed by CCP so VN as a buddy is useful to Moscow to leverage some counterbalance of CCP in general too.

Putin just signed up to CCP's rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration which VN knows is obligatory to Putin and which Asean received with a wink from Moscow.

Fact is Russia, VN and CCP know Russia is not going to rush to the defense of VN against CCP in any respect, but that each Moscow and Hanoi have a 60 year history of being pals and want to keep it that way, especially in respect of CCP. Hanoi knows US is the one that has the weapons and the support clout VN needs and wants with Asean, the East Asia region from India to Japan and at the UN. VN's new SCS policy can be called triangulation but all three points of it are aimed at CCP.

[Publicus]

Sorry Guys ....been traveling through London and HK for the last few days pus Korea and it has whacked the time clock out of sync

Back in Thailand and reading the threads ...will respond tomorrow when I get some sleep in

We knew you wuz at a Grand Hyatt someplace sipping pekoe tea with the Boyz and everyone passing around the green.

As you well know in Guangdong they drink tea everywhere and all day and night. Couldn't get out of a tobacco shop or anyone's office without having to also sit for tea pouring non-stop. The pekoe tea sent me scurrying for the facilities so I used to try asking for milk tea but that went over like asking for a Cola in Paris. (The kid is not much for coffee either except for one cup a day at the crack of dawn...well, at high noon.) The flower teas in China were most agreeable however.

So how about if you work into a post your earlier passing reference to the historical Russia-China distrust....antagonisms...plus VN...

Edited May 15, 2016 by Publicus

[Cook my sock]

There has always been a strong relationship between the US and the Philippines.

Not true..

[2fishin2]

There has always been a strong relationship between the US and the Philippines.

Not true..

True. Although strained at times because of politics, true.

[Cook my sock]

Without going into detail, there was huge anti US sentiment leading up to the senate decision in '91. So much for a strong relationship, back then at least.

[keemapoot]

Interesting statements by Singapore's PM yesterday regarding Russia's role in ASEAN:

SINGAPORE, May 14. /TASS/. Singapore appreciates Russia’s participation in regional affairs and its contribution to ensuring stability in Southeast Asia, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an exclusive interview with TASS First Deputy Director General Mikhail Gusman.

"We very much value Russia as a participant in regional affairs and a constructive contributor to stability and peace in the region," Lee said ahead of his visit to Russia and attending the Russia - ASEAN summit in Sochi.

As I posted in one of these threads recently, the Vietsovpetro JV between Vietnam and Russia is a hugely important oil exploration and production company, and is also directly vested in the SCS disputed claims between Vietnam and China. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietsovpetro)

So, I wonder if we will see some Russian activity with respect to protecting the Vietnam interests in the near future?

http://tass.ru/en/world/875668

Russia matters to Vietnam militarily and in SCS energy resource extraction but VN gets no diplomatic support from Russia. Vietnam matters to Russia as a friendly government toward Moscow that doesn't like CCP China but Russia doesn't get any diplomatic support from Vietnam either. (More on this in a moment.)

As for Asean, Russia is too distant to pose any threat to Asean and Asean certainly poses no threat to Russia. Asean and Russia are good buddies, as we see in Singapore PM Lee's remarks which are representative of Asean member countries toward Russia. There are three important things between Asean and Russia: trade, trade, trade.

Militarily, Vietnam just got the 5th of 6 Kilo-class subs built by Russia that have the Klub missile which is capable of reaching most of southern CCP China. VN also launched this year two Russian built in VN guided missile corvettes. Russia and VN later this month will do their first joint Naval exercises in the SCS out of the newly renovated Cam Ranh Bay naval base.

As you'd noted, Russia has a couple of substantial energy contracts to work in the VN EEZ. So does India. CCP is not pleased about either and although it didn't say much publicly to Russia, it hollered publicly at India a lot while flapping its arms fiercely in a constant barrage of blah blah blah.

Diplomatically Russia and VN haven't any common interests.

VN has depended on Russia for weapons, naval ships and subs especially; some upscale air force fighter jets. But VN wants US serious weapons, missiles especially for shore batteries it wants to set up along its SCS north and central coast and which cover its EEZ no sweat. It wants the US F-15 Fighting Falcon within the next five years. Methinks President Obama is going okay all of it on the 21st when he visits Vietnam, conditional on human rights upgrades and step by step in armaments. (SecDef Carter whispered 'yes' to Sen McCain at McCain's armed services hearing last month to his question about lifting the arms embargo entirely.)

US and Japan have access now to the large Cam Ranh Bay naval facility which easily accommodates aircraft carriers and to the adjoining air force base which accommodates anything the US flies. Cam Ranh Bay is also a new supply and fueling facility for the Pentagon.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter, left, and Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phung Quang Thanh hold a news conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, June 1, 2015.

Image Credit: DoD photo by Glenn Fawcett

Vietnam is astutely triangulating its position among Russia, USA, Japan, in fending off CCP. (Yes that's four but strategists are calling it triangulation....which I suppose is easier than calling it quadrangulation which could sound rather suffocating.)

Lawrence referred briefly one post to the Russia-China historical discomfort and unease -- fundamental distrust -- which is indeed real. Russian strategists fret openly that the CCP army is bigger than the Russian one and they worry about it down the road. CCP still claims Siberia as its territory stolen a hundred years ago and Russia still claims Xinjiang which CCP took over in 1950 by simply marching in to it while Moscow wasn't looking.

Russia is blocking the northern route at its border of the CCP proposed Silk Road from CCP to Europe (which also has a central Asia route and a southern one that are also going nowhere fast, as Iran is not big on the central one going through northern Iran and India is not about to let CCP have the southern route through northern India which CCP claims belongs to it. Focking idiots in Beijing they are.). Russia fears being swallowed by CCP so VN as a buddy is useful to Moscow to leverage some counterbalance of CCP in general too.

Putin just signed up to CCP's rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration which VN knows is obligatory to Putin and which Asean received with a wink from Moscow.

Fact is Russia, VN and CCP know Russia is not going to rush to the defense of VN against CCP in any respect, but that each Moscow and Hanoi have a 60 year history of being pals and want to keep it that way, especially in respect of CCP. Hanoi knows US is the one that has the weapons and the support clout VN needs and wants with Asean, the East Asia region from India to Japan and at the UN. VN's new SCS policy can be called triangulation but all three points of it are aimed at CCP.

Good analysis, but this triangulation or quadsomething has its limits and dangers for Vietnam. First, Russia and Japan, though recently cozying up regarding the Russian Far East (RFE) Sakhalin (over 200 year of bitter disputes over this between Russia and Japan & containing 14 billion bbls of crude & gas), have had a long running conflict in the Russian Far East, and PM Abe's recent proposals for Japanese involvement in exploiting Sakhalin oil has been welcomed by Putin. So, butting heads in the SCS is not attractive for each now.

Second, US and Russia have their own issues obviously, so the potential of Russia "butting-in" to this young love between the US and Viet in the SCS will not be welcomed by the US, but as you say, Russia has to pay lip service to China on this arbitration for larger reasons.

Third, Russia is an important Pacific power in both naval and economic factors. Anyone doubting the first point should visit Vladivostok, and though smaller than during the Soviet years, it is growing again under Putin with subs and cruisers being added. BTW, throughout the RFE from Vladivostok to Khabarovsk to even Blagavyenchensk (bordering China), you will see lots of Japanese & US & foreign investment and activity in logging and other natural resources, much of which depends on open sea lanes through the SCS. So, anyone thinking Russia does not have a strategic interest in the SCS is mistaken. They also, as mentioned have an economic interest directly in Vietnam offshore oil, and it conflicts with China.

Finally, Singapore and ASEAN have interests in keeping all traffic and activity open, and preventing and avoiding conflicts in the SCS. So, they will try to achieve as many legitimate powers to negotiate together as possible to contain China's unilateral end-run on the SCS.

Regarding all the new silk road and maritime silk road initiatives, they are hugely ambitious and will take time to develop, if at all, or to what extent.

I hope this post and its subthread is allowed to remain this time, because these far-ranging issues, including THE TPP, are directly, relevantly and strategically related to the SCS conflict and should not be discarded because it does not specifically address US sea patrols in the SCS.

[keemapoot]

Sorry Guys ....been traveling through London and HK for the last few days pus Korea and it has whacked the time clock out of sync

Back in Thailand and reading the threads ...will respond tomorrow when I get some sleep in

We knew you wuz at a Grand Hyatt someplace sipping pekoe tea with the Boyz and everyone passing around the green.

As you well know in Guangdong they drink tea everywhere and all day and night. Couldn't get out of a tobacco shop or anyone's office without having to also sit for tea pouring non-stop. The pekoe tea sent me scurrying for the facilities so I used to try asking for milk tea but that went over like asking for a Cola in Paris. (The kid is not much for coffee either except for one cup a day at the crack of dawn...well, at high noon.) The flower teas in China were most agreeable however.

So how about if you work into a post your earlier passing reference to the historical Russia-China distrust....antagonisms...plus VN...

Don't worry, our trusty China patriot shall return after his tea break. Lawrence, I'm sure you love the traditional afternoon tea at the Ritz in Piccadilly, a bit touristy now, but still one of the best IMO.

I'm afraid the evidence, world opinion, regional inertia, and pesky international law is mounting on China on this one, and your guys may have to back down.

[Publicus]

Sorry Guys ....been traveling through London and HK for the last few days pus Korea and it has whacked the time clock out of sync

Back in Thailand and reading the threads ...will respond tomorrow when I get some sleep in

We knew you wuz at a Grand Hyatt someplace sipping pekoe tea with the Boyz and everyone passing around the green.

As you well know in Guangdong they drink tea everywhere and all day and night. Couldn't get out of a tobacco shop or anyone's office without having to also sit for tea pouring non-stop. The pekoe tea sent me scurrying for the facilities so I used to try asking for milk tea but that went over like asking for a Cola in Paris. (The kid is not much for coffee either except for one cup a day at the crack of dawn...well, at high noon.) The flower teas in China were most agreeable however.

So how about if you work into a post your earlier passing reference to the historical Russia-China distrust....antagonisms...plus VN...

Don't worry, our trusty China patriot shall return after his tea break. Lawrence, I'm sure you love the traditional afternoon tea at the Ritz in Piccadilly, a bit touristy now, but still one of the best IMO.

I'm afraid the evidence, world opinion, regional inertia, and pesky international law is mounting on China on this one, and your guys may have to back down.

CCP doesn't do off ramps.

They crawl along on the shoulder of the road. When an off ramp comes up they step on it and swerve across and through the traffic then cut back onto the shoulder again.

Off ramps are for the locals or the tourists. That is what CCP thinks we are.

That orange ball you see out ahead is a bad moon rising.

[55Jay]

The primary issue of Right or Wrong seems fairly clear by now.

However reading the spider web of details, analysis and opinion is fascinating, and thought provoking. IMO, in its class, one of the best threads running on TVF at the moment and deserves some latitude.

[boomerangutang]

...will respond tomorrow when I get some sleep in

Ok, get your beauty sleep. Maybe you'll have a lucid dream where the whole SCS alphabet soup is laid out clearly. With a clear mind, free from Beijing indoctrination, you can join us in encouraging Chinese to go back to China, and quit taking other countries' possessions.

On a side note: I just watched a full length movie called MISSION BLUE. It's a well-made documentary which showcases the life and career of Sylvia Earle. She's now elderly, but has had an amazing 60+ yr career as one of the world's top environmentalists. Her focus is on oceans. Among the many things shown: coral reefs which she dove to decades ago, which were once teeming with myriad types of marine life, ....are now underwater deserts.

Asians in particular, are decimating life in the sea at a phenomenal pace. Tuna, sharks and cod are down to less than 5% of what they were just a decade ago. Extinction of more species is inevitable. Everyone loses. Overpopulation of humans is the basic problem, but compounding it is the primitive greedy mind-set of fishermen, oil-men, and humanity in general. Kill the oceans and you kill most of life on the planet. And the oceans are dying at a fast pace. Not all species will die, of course. there will be jellyfish, and oxygen-choking algae, and other species. But nearly all the species which we hold dear, are and will be decimated.

The SCS imbroglio is contributing to that destructive trend. It's not all China's fault, but China is a big player in killing life the oceans. Japan is just as bad in its own voracious way.

[55Jay]

Not to worry, Captain Kirk will soon be on the scene to battle the evil Chinglongs ??

How cool is that destroyer by the way...I bet the Russians and Chinese wish they had something remotely similar!

Man, the Trekkies gunna love that!

Reminds me of the USS Merrimack. I haven't warmed to the appearance of this new one yet, while realizing, of course, it is very high tech and functional - but farkin' ugly IMO! I'm still moved by the battleships and remember as a pimple faced tadpole, gazing at the USS Missouri sailing alongside us in the Indian Ocean during the late 80's. A sight to behold and, in later years, was told by US Marine NGFS types, terrifying to be on the receiving end of her salvos. Endeth nostalgic segway......

Edited May 16, 2016 by 55Jay

[LawrenceChee]

The interesting thing why I love politics is its ever changing , the involvement I have been getting into shows me that 2-3 generations from now , China would morphed into its own identity from a political point and be stronger

Sorry boom ...I am normally in the south and not in Beijing as I am from the south

I have seen how they have reviewed major countries and western powers and what they get away with and then ask themselves how they can replicate and what's the base line ?

It's happening in SCS and understandably not everyone is comfortable and China is seeing what's the final line ....

I can share they are reviewing how the USA would not ractify the UN convention on the rights of children ( 3 countries have not ratified this - USA Sudan and Somalia) and also Kyoto to quote the 2 and can get away from it from a publicity point and trying to find their own angles now for this and getting smarter at it

It's interesting in ASEAN as within ASEAN there is also a lot of deep mistrust and hence China knows only bilateral works better rather than a unified one as it's impossible to knock out since ASEAN have various degrees of openness , history with China and also levels of poverty

USA just announced that the Myanmar sanctions will stay ...even with a democratic government and that will surely upset some people in that congress ...maybe now this month they will side China ....

[craigt3365]

Very good post, Mr. Chee!!!!

[keemapoot]

The interesting thing why I love politics is its ever changing , the involvement I have been getting into shows me that 2-3 generations from now , China would morphed into its own identity from a political point and be stronger

Sorry boom ...I am normally in the south and not in Beijing as I am from the south

I have seen how they have reviewed major countries and western powers and what they get away with and then ask themselves how they can replicate and what's the base line ?

It's happening in SCS and understandably not everyone is comfortable and China is seeing what's the final line ....

I can share they are reviewing how the USA would not ractify the UN convention on the rights of children ( 3 countries have not ratified this - USA Sudan and Somalia) and also Kyoto to quote the 2 and can get away from it from a publicity point and trying to find their own angles now for this and getting smarter at it

It's interesting in ASEAN as within ASEAN there is also a lot of deep mistrust and hence China knows only bilateral works better rather than a unified one as it's impossible to knock out since ASEAN have various degrees of openness , history with China and also levels of poverty

USA just announced that the Myanmar sanctions will stay ...even with a democratic government and that will surely upset some people in that congress ...maybe now this month they will side China ....

Good post Lawrence, and you have put your finger on the issue of American exceptionalism. There are 7 major treaties the US hasn't ratified, and considers itself "above the law" on many issues. This is the prerogative of a superpower. And, as you say, China is growing into its role as a superpower and trying this same approach with the SCS. The difference is that China is a signatory, and then tries to wiggle out of the arbitration provision. This is just down to relative inexperience by China at these things.

China will get the superpower thing down soon enough, and will learn when they can push the envelope and when they can't.

[craigt3365]

I believe one big issue with the Kyoto protocol was developing countries don't have the strict caps developed nations do. Canada has dropped out also. China is the #1 emitter of greenhouse gases. Protocols like this are very difficult to pass, and adhere to. Sadly....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

When George W. Bush was elected US president in 2000, he was asked by US Senator Hagel what his administration's position was on climate change. Bush replied that he took climate change "very seriously,"^[94] but that he opposed the Kyoto treaty, because "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy"

[LawrenceChee]

I believe one big issue with the Kyoto protocol was developing countries don't have the strict caps developed nations do. Canada has dropped out also. China is the #1 emitter of greenhouse gases. Protocols like this are very difficult to pass, and adhere to. Sadly....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

When George W. Bush was elected US president in 2000, he was asked by US Senator Hagel what his administration's position was on climate change. Bush replied that he took climate change "very seriously,"^[94] but that he opposed the Kyoto treaty, because "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy"

Yes agree ...I have been a fervent poster on environmental protection and in the south we are getting a lot of traction with many places declared now off limits from manufacturing development and being declared world heritage nature sites and I have done my small bit discouraging any land purchases in these places or developments

When I am in Lijiang Yunnan ...truly I wish in my heart that China would slow down its pace ....there is a lot of beauty in nature and I want to bring my great grandchildren here and sip Pu Er together and recite Chinese poems ....to lose that would be a tragedy

I am very happy to see this year Guangzhou has stepped in and implements Xi environmental protocol KPI ...it basically means in simplistic terms if you fail the KPI set for environmental protection , you will be losing your job

Times like this I enjoy how tough the communists get ....sure , one or two may be unfairly dismissed but for the greater cause ....I can agree with that

Edited May 16, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[LawrenceChee]

The interesting thing why I love politics is its ever changing , the involvement I have been getting into shows me that 2-3 generations from now , China would morphed into its own identity from a political point and be stronger

Sorry boom ...I am normally in the south and not in Beijing as I am from the south

I have seen how they have reviewed major countries and western powers and what they get away with and then ask themselves how they can replicate and what's the base line ?

It's happening in SCS and understandably not everyone is comfortable and China is seeing what's the final line ....

I can share they are reviewing how the USA would not ractify the UN convention on the rights of children ( 3 countries have not ratified this - USA Sudan and Somalia) and also Kyoto to quote the 2 and can get away from it from a publicity point and trying to find their own angles now for this and getting smarter at it

It's interesting in ASEAN as within ASEAN there is also a lot of deep mistrust and hence China knows only bilateral works better rather than a unified one as it's impossible to knock out since ASEAN have various degrees of openness , history with China and also levels of poverty

USA just announced that the Myanmar sanctions will stay ...even with a democratic government and that will surely upset some people in that congress ...maybe now this month they will side China ....

Good post Lawrence, and you have put your finger on the issue of American exceptionalism. There are 7 major treaties the US hasn't ratified, and considers itself "above the law" on many issues. This is the prerogative of a superpower. And, as you say, China is growing into its role as a superpower and trying this same approach with the SCS. The difference is that China is a signatory, and then tries to wiggle out of the arbitration provision. This is just down to relative inexperience by China at these things.

China will get the superpower thing down soon enough, and will learn when they can push the envelope and when they can't.

Agree with you , they are learning and they ate committed to getting smarter now in not saying yes so quickly ; only drawback of that I can see is then you have inaction which in some cases is worse than acting on something

China will learn how to balance many roles as a superpower ...

[boomerangutang]

How cool is that destroyer by the way...I bet the Russians and Chinese wish they had something remotely similar!

Cool indeed, and u can b sure the Chinese, in particular, are working diligently and clandestinely to corral every bit of specs & diagrams on it as they can. If state-of-the-art fighter planes are indicative, Chinese reverse-engineers will get the shape right (down to the mm), but won't quite be able to get the weapons, early-warning, propulsion, stealth, and other systems functioning as good as the original. It's the same for all they copy, from vice grips, on up to fighter jets. They get the shape right, but not the functionality.

I read a pretty good history of the Skunk Works (where the SR71 came from, among other innovations). They pioneered stealth, though it was inspired by an obscure Russian experimenter from decades earlier (whose papers were nearly lost in filing cabinets). Just a tiny item, like the type of head on a small fastener joining two pieces of metal, can mean the difference between a big signal and no signal. I'm not saying the Chinese engineers don't know that, but that..... it's like making a pizza: You can get all the ingredients, look at 1,000 pictures, study a dozen recipes, but Vinnie's Pizza in Brooklyn is going to make a better pizza.

The interesting thing why I love politics is its ever changing , the involvement I have been getting into shows me that 2-3 generations from now , China would morphed into its own identity from a political point and be stronger

Sorry boom ...I am normally in the south and not in Beijing as I am from the south

I have seen how they have reviewed major countries and western powers and what they get away with and then ask themselves how they can replicate and what's the base line ?

It's happening in SCS and understandably not everyone is comfortable and China is seeing what's the final line ....

I can share they are reviewing how the USA would not ractify the UN convention on the rights of children ( 3 countries have not ratified this - USA Sudan and Somalia) and also Kyoto to quote the 2 and can get away from it from a publicity point and trying to find their own angles now for this and getting smarter at it

It's interesting in ASEAN as within ASEAN there is also a lot of deep mistrust and hence China knows only bilateral works better rather than a unified one as it's impossible to knock out since ASEAN have various degrees of openness , history with China and also levels of poverty

USA just announced that the Myanmar sanctions will stay ...even with a democratic government and that will surely upset some people in that congress ...maybe now this month they will side China ....

Good post Lawrence, and you have put your finger on the issue of American exceptionalism. There are 7 major treaties the US hasn't ratified, and considers itself "above the law" on many issues. This is the prerogative of a superpower. And, as you say, China is growing into its role as a superpower and trying this same approach with the SCS. The difference is that China is a signatory, and then tries to wiggle out of the arbitration provision. This is just down to relative inexperience by China at these things.

China will get the superpower thing down soon enough, and will learn when they can push the envelope and when they can't.

Two basic tenets to being a world superpower are: gaining respect and helping others. The US doesn't score a perfect 10 on the respect aspect (depending who you talk to, and how much help they need), but it's doing rather well re; helping others worldwide by doing things like sending a US aircraft carrier to the Indonesian coast to assist victims of the earthquake/tsunami. If China wants to join the superpower club it has to actively (sometimes with alacrity) assist non-Chinese in times of need - and without an agenda of wanting to gain resources, biz deals or territory. Sometimes the most respected person in the community is the one who offers assistance (to those most in need) without expecting anything in return. Even better, in my view, is to do useful things to improve the environment (with similar parameters of not gaining anything in return). In other words: doing good for the sake of doing good. One way China could do that is to start cleaning up the Pacific Trash Vortex.

[craigt3365]

Lijiang is indeed an incredibly beautiful city and area. Loved my time there. Hiking Tiger Leaping Gorge, going to Shangri La, etc. Loved it.

The US is doing quite well with regards to greenhouse gases.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/us-may-come-close-to-2020-greenhouse-gas-emission-target/

The U.S. is on course to nearly meet its pledge from the Copenhagen climate conference, according to a new analysis

The United States is likely to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 16.3 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, falling just shy of the 17 percent target pledged by President Obama at the 2009 climate talks in Copenhagen, Denmark, according to a new study.

"With the failure to pass comprehensive climate legislation in the 2010-2011 Congress, most analysts in the U.S. and internationally would have concluded that the U.S. is doing nothing to meet its Copenhagen pledge," said Dallas Burtraw, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF) and lead author of the report.

"The surprise is that we appear to be on course to meet that pledge, and that's a finding that is very different than the expectation that people are carrying around in the U.S. and internationally," he added.

But, we're off topic!!!!! Sorry!!!

[keemapoot]

Lijiang is indeed an incredibly beautiful city and area. Loved my time there. Hiking Tiger Leaping Gorge, going to Shangri La, etc. Loved it.

The US is doing quite well with regards to greenhouse gases.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/us-may-come-close-to-2020-greenhouse-gas-emission-target/

The U.S. is on course to nearly meet its pledge from the Copenhagen climate conference, according to a new analysis

The United States is likely to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 16.3 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, falling just shy of the 17 percent target pledged by President Obama at the 2009 climate talks in Copenhagen, Denmark, according to a new study.

"With the failure to pass comprehensive climate legislation in the 2010-2011 Congress, most analysts in the U.S. and internationally would have concluded that the U.S. is doing nothing to meet its Copenhagen pledge," said Dallas Burtraw, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF) and lead author of the report.

"The surprise is that we appear to be on course to meet that pledge, and that's a finding that is very different than the expectation that people are carrying around in the U.S. and internationally," he added.

But, we're off topic!!!!! Sorry!!!

Wow, as a former Mod you should know better. I got whacked last week for an on-topic post.

[Publicus]

Interesting statements by Singapore's PM yesterday regarding Russia's role in ASEAN:

SINGAPORE, May 14. /TASS/. Singapore appreciates Russia’s participation in regional affairs and its contribution to ensuring stability in Southeast Asia, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an exclusive interview with TASS First Deputy Director General Mikhail Gusman.

"We very much value Russia as a participant in regional affairs and a constructive contributor to stability and peace in the region," Lee said ahead of his visit to Russia and attending the Russia - ASEAN summit in Sochi.

As I posted in one of these threads recently, the Vietsovpetro JV between Vietnam and Russia is a hugely important oil exploration and production company, and is also directly vested in the SCS disputed claims between Vietnam and China. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietsovpetro)

So, I wonder if we will see some Russian activity with respect to protecting the Vietnam interests in the near future?

http://tass.ru/en/world/875668

<<snip>>

Militarily, Vietnam just got the 5th of 6 Kilo-class subs built by Russia that have the Klub missile which is capable of reaching most of southern CCP China. VN also launched this year two Russian built in VN guided missile corvettes. Russia and VN later this month will do their first joint Naval exercises in the SCS out of the newly renovated Cam Ranh Bay naval base.

As you'd noted, Russia has a couple of substantial energy contracts to work in the VN EEZ. So does India. CCP is not pleased about either and although it didn't say much publicly to Russia, it hollered publicly at India a lot while flapping its arms fiercely in a constant barrage of blah blah blah.

<<snip>>

VN has depended on Russia for weapons, naval ships and subs especially; some upscale air force fighter jets. But VN wants US serious weapons, missiles especially for shore batteries it wants to set up along its SCS north and central coast and which cover its EEZ no sweat. It wants the US F-15 Fighting Falcon within the next five years. Methinks President Obama is going okay all of it on the 21st when he visits Vietnam, conditional on human rights upgrades and step by step in armaments. (SecDef Carter whispered 'yes' to Sen McCain at McCain's armed services hearing last month to his question about lifting the arms embargo entirely.)

US and Japan have access now to the large Cam Ranh Bay naval facility which easily accommodates aircraft carriers and to the adjoining air force base which accommodates anything the US flies. Cam Ranh Bay is also a new supply and fueling facility for the Pentagon.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter, left, and Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phung Quang Thanh hold a news conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, June 1, 2015.

Image Credit: DoD photo by Glenn Fawcett

Vietnam is astutely triangulating its position among Russia, USA, Japan, in fending off CCP. (Yes that's four but strategists are calling it triangulation....which I suppose is easier than calling it quadrangulation which could sound rather suffocating.)

<<snip>>

Putin just signed up to CCP's rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration which VN knows is obligatory to Putin and which Asean received with a wink from Moscow.

Fact is Russia, VN and CCP know Russia is not going to rush to the defense of VN against CCP in any respect, but that each Moscow and Hanoi have a 60 year history of being pals and want to keep it that way, especially in respect of CCP. Hanoi knows US is the one that has the weapons and the support clout VN needs and wants with Asean, the East Asia region from India to Japan and at the UN. VN's new SCS policy can be called triangulation but all three points of it are aimed at CCP.

Good analysis, but this triangulation or quadsomething has its limits and dangers for Vietnam. First, Russia and Japan, though recently cozying up regarding the Russian Far East (RFE) Sakhalin (over 200 year of bitter disputes over this between Russia and Japan & containing 14 billion bbls of crude & gas), have had a long running conflict in the Russian Far East, and PM Abe's recent proposals for Japanese involvement in exploiting Sakhalin oil has been welcomed by Putin. So, butting heads in the SCS is not attractive for each now.

Second, US and Russia have their own issues obviously, so the potential of Russia "butting-in" to this young love between the US and Viet in the SCS will not be welcomed by the US, but as you say, Russia has to pay lip service to China on this arbitration for larger reasons.

Third, Russia is an important Pacific power in both naval and economic factors. Anyone doubting the first point should visit Vladivostok, and though smaller than during the Soviet years, it is growing again under Putin with subs and cruisers being added. BTW, throughout the RFE from Vladivostok to Khabarovsk to even Blagavyenchensk (bordering China), you will see lots of Japanese & US & foreign investment and activity in logging and other natural resources, much of which depends on open sea lanes through the SCS. So, anyone thinking Russia does not have a strategic interest in the SCS is mistaken. They also, as mentioned have an economic interest directly in Vietnam offshore oil, and it conflicts with China.

Finally, Singapore and ASEAN have interests in keeping all traffic and activity open, and preventing and avoiding conflicts in the SCS. So, they will try to achieve as many legitimate powers to negotiate together as possible to contain China's unilateral end-run on the SCS.

Regarding all the new silk road and maritime silk road initiatives, they are hugely ambitious and will take time to develop, if at all, or to what extent.

I hope this post and its subthread is allowed to remain this time, because these far-ranging issues, including THE TPP, are directly, relevantly and strategically related to the SCS conflict and should not be discarded because it does not specifically address US sea patrols in the SCS.

Your focus on geo-economic factors related to SCS and my focus on geo-strategic ones seem at last to be somewhat intersecting and getting complementary. One could say the green team and the blue team are playing a friendly and may join up to play the red team at some point. Lawrence can be trainer if not the trainee (hard for the Chinese to admit their management and staff needs to learn something from being on the short end of win-lose).

As to your first point, Russia isn't going to get directly involved in the SCS. It's been arming Vietnam but VN wants US serious weapons, technology, diplomatic and political clout. CCP wants all the paltry diplomatic signatures it can gather but it does not want Russia involved in the SCS as an active player. Neither does Russia want to be one in the SCS. Nor is Russia a serious naval player in the Western Pacific to include SCS. Its fleet at Vladavistok remains small and it is closed in by US submarines as is all of coastal CCP right into the SCS (which is anyway too shallow in most places for anyone's submarines and is complicated by reefs and dense underwater features). US sort of anticipated a SCS contest by creating new Air-Sea Battle Littoral Combat Ships (shallow waters) which have a small draft, are fast and potent, and are coming online now, with three already based in Singapore and three more coming on this year and next.

Two USN Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) underway in the South China Sea outside their base in Singapore, March 9, 2016. At left is USS Independence LCS-2 and at right is the USS Coronado LCS-4. Littoral Combat Ships are faster and smaller corvette-style ships designed to operate in shallow and coastal waters. Not shown is USS Fort Worth LCS-3 which also operates in the South China Sea. LCS has a speed of 50+ knots, displaces 2160 tons and is armed with Rolling Airframe Missiles (RAM) with other naval offensive weaponry and radars.

As to Japan and Russia, PM Abe has successfully promoted a mutual approach to disputes that has enabled Japan to shift the bulk of its Self-Defense Forces from its north facing Russia to Japan's south to face CCP China and the East Sea, recently completed.

As to your second point and third points, i.e., Russia "butting in" on US-VN fast developing relations, Vietnam is balancing its options with Russia, US, Japan to include India, which means it knows Russia will not involve itself in SCS while the US is already involved and will be increasingly involved. India is btw training Vietnam submarine and navy personnel, given Russia has armed India since independence (with France) which is of no comfort either to CCP. Russia and India are doing contracted VN EEZ resource extraction which leaves CCP as the lawless intruder.

Your final point in respect of Singapore speaks somewhat to the point the city-state conducts its own skilled and savvy statecraft that balances economic ties with Russia, CCP, and India alongside strong and open defense ties with the US, India, Australia, Japan. It's just that Singapore is so small and its economic and financial prowess makes its highly respected air and sea defense forces and its open defense ties hardly noticeable in the public discourse.

All in all however, your post that points out CCP has essentially isolated and cornered itself in its SCS stupidity sums it up accurately and effectively (my word, "stupidity"). Add to it blustering and blundering absolutist arrogance.

[keemapoot]

The upcoming Russia-ASEAN summit (May 19-21), is getting a lot of attention in Russia calling attention to its interests in ASEAN, and specifically in Vietnam.

"We often call this country (Vietnam) ‘bridge to ASEAN’," Lokshin said. "However, this is not just a bridge by which you can enter other countries in the region. This is the display window of effectiveness and potential opportunities of our bilateral cooperation," he added. "Politicians and business circles of all ASEAN countries are carefully watching" developing cooperation between Russia and Vietnam and "making their conclusions," he noted.

More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/875801

Seem like Vietnam is the flavor of the month and everybody's darling in ASEAN now. Russia can lay claim to deep cooperation from Soviet days, and continuing today.

It could be all pre-summit rhetoric, but I would not be surprised to see Russia start some security operations or naval patrols in Vietnam claimed parts of SCS too, specifically with their old comrad Vietnam.

Might turn into multinational Naval Brinkmanship Central in the SCS soon.

[tonbridgebrit]

Am not sure if this was mentioned earlier (maybe Publicus mentioned it, as he's usually abreast of what's going on): Taiwan recently contacted the Int'l court to be a participant. Taiwan has occupied a tiny island it calls Taiping - purportedly for 60 yrs. It has an airstrip there. At least two things happen with Taiwan's involvement re; the legal arguments taking place in Europe: #1, because of Taiwan's 11th hour entry into the discussions, it will delay their legal findings. #2. Because Taiwan is not officially recognized as a country by the UN (because of China's deliberate ostracizing of Taiwan) - it might make for a sticky situation. My assumption is the legal tribunal will deal with Taiwan as a country, and that's how it should be. Plus, China publicly declared it won't be a party to the legal maneuverings, so it therefore shouldn't/can't protest Taiwan's participation in the legal process.

If anyone wants to see and hear details of the mounting tensions in the SCS, CNN has a long series of incisive brief news reports video accessible here

Okay, Taiping Island, also called Itu Aba Island.

Here is a link from wikipedia about Taiping Island. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island

Okay, if we go to the wikipedia page, well, there is a map there that shows where Taiping Island actualy is. According to wikipedia, Taiping Island is the largest of the naturally occuring Spratly Islands, about 1.4 km long, and 0.4 km wide, area of 46 hectares. And indeed, Repulic of China (Taiwan) has the island.

Now then, a few quotes from the wikipedia page.

[China first asserted sovereignty in the modern sense to the South China Sea’s island when it formally objected to France’s efforts to incorporate Itu Aba and other islands and rocks into French Indochina during the 1884 – 1885 Sino-French war. The 1887 boundary convention signed between France and China places the Spratly and Paracel islands under Chinese rule.^{[citation needed]} Chinese maps since then have consistently shown China’s claims, first as a solid and then as a dotted line.]

Also [At first, France recognized Chinese sovereignty of Spratly and Paracel islands, in exchange for Chinese recognition of Vietnam as a French territory.^{[citation needed]} In 1932, a year after the Japanese formally invaded northeast China (Manchuria), France formally claimed both the Paracel and Spratly Islands. China and Japan both protested. In 1933, France seized the Paracels and Spratlys, announced their annexation, formally included them in French Indochina, and built a couple of weather stations on them, but did not disturb the numerous Chinese fishermen it found there. In 1938 Japan took the islands from France,]

For a start, on the map, please notice that Taiping Island is NOT near the Republic of China (Taiwan) or Peoples' Republic of China (China). But Taiwan has it. The island IS a miltary base, population about 600, there are no civilians there. Now then, are people going to be CONSISTENT with their principles ?

I mean, IF people are going to say that China has no right to the Spratly Islands, well, surely, you've got to also say that Republic of China (Taiwan) has no right to Taiping Island ? And IF the Phillipines and Taiwan are to have their own negotiations over ownership of Taiping Island, well, how about Philippines and China have their own negotiations about the Spratly Islands ?

And, notice how the media want to zoom in on China's "absurd" claims on the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands, but Republic of China's existing occupation of Taiping Island is rarely mentioned in the media. Why ?

Also, a basic principle appears to be this. If you are a Far East country, and you took over (or conquered, or claimed) whatever island (or actually, any bit of land) BEFORE Britain and France turned up in the Far East, well, yes, Britain/France and the world will accept that it is yours today. BUT, if you take over the place AFTER Britain and France had first turned up, well, that's called "grabbing territory that does NOT belong to you".

[LawrenceChee]

Like I mentioned ASEAN is a mix bag and constantly changing

President Elect of Philippines just mentioned in a press conference after meeting the Chinese ambassador he is willing to talk and negotiate for the islands directly with China

Must drive the USA nuts tonight ...knowing that one of the key allies has flipped sides again

The guy is a tough nut to crack and mentioned that he will jet ski to the islands and plant a flag ..,,the Chinese like him for that ..tough and straight to the case....

Everyone back to the table and talk about the most important issue ....how much would that island cost ?

Pour the tea and pass the biscuits will you ....?

[boomerangutang]

Like I mentioned ASEAN is a mix bag and constantly changing

President Elect of Philippines just mentioned in a press conference after meeting the Chinese ambassador he is willing to talk and negotiate for the islands directly with China

Must drive the USA nuts tonight ...knowing that one of the key allies has flipped sides again

The guy is a tough nut to crack and mentioned that he will jet ski to the islands and plant a flag ..,,the Chinese like him for that ..tough and straight to the case....

Everyone back to the table and talk about the most important issue ....how much would that island cost ?

Pour the tea and pass the biscuits will you ....?

Just because the new Fil prez says he's willing to talk to Chinese officials about the SCS issues, does not necessarily mean it bodes well for China. It's not going to drive the USA nuts. The US doesn't so much care who controls which islands, as long as the owners don't impede air and sea travel, ....and don't militarize. China is developing those things at a fast pace. Another factor: over-fishing and pollution are already happening, but that won't change regardless of who owns the islands. Additionally, the possibility of oil pollution is essentially inevitable.

Re; the prior post with quotes from Wiki. That's relevant to some degree. Taking a step back for perspective, most regions of the world have had territorial changes. Even central China has a long convoluted history of changing alliances/Kingdoms etc. Certainly Europe has.

I think the fairest resolution to the SCS imbroglio is to look at each island/reef individually, and take several things into account:

>>> history, including which nationalities had the most involvement with that island over the past 1,000 years.

>>> For any disputed areas (which is most of 'em) geographic considerations: which country are the islands closest to. Economic Exclusion Zones, etc.

Some factors that should not be important in that mix:

>>> which country, vying for possession, is the biggest, has a larger population, or has the stronger military

>>> which country has been busy terraforming and docking ships/planes.

As a comparison: Let's say there's an abandoned house. 5 families say they want it, though it's not clear which family saw (heard about) it first, so the arbitrator (int'l tribunal) can't decide who should get first dibs on buying it. One of the families moves in and starts using the kitchen, bathrooms, bedrooms. That annoys the other interested parties, but the occupying family says, "tough tamales. While you'all were standing around, we moved in. Now it's ours. Plus we have a bigger family than you and we have weapons, so you only have one choice: Agree it's ours."

[LawrenceChee]

China has always wanted bilateral talks only with each country separately ....so after meeting the Chinese ambassador the guy says he wants to talk directly and negotiate terms and develop the island together. While it may not mean it ends well for China ...its at least on the platform that China wants and hopefully influence

He also mentioned in an earlier speech if China's does not claim it , Philippines would not too ...that's a departure from Aquinos stance that the court hearing is binding and the only way

China wont claim it for 6 more years...there is no rush....in the meantime they can continue building and negotiations

[tonbridgebrit]

Like I mentioned ASEAN is a mix bag and constantly changing

President Elect of Philippines just mentioned in a press conference after meeting the Chinese ambassador he is willing to talk and negotiate for the islands directly with China

Must drive the USA nuts tonight ...knowing that one of the key allies has flipped sides again

The guy is a tough nut to crack and mentioned that he will jet ski to the islands and plant a flag ..,,the Chinese like him for that ..tough and straight to the case....

Everyone back to the table and talk about the most important issue ....how much would that island cost ?

Pour the tea and pass the biscuits will you ....?

Just because the new Fil prez says he's willing to talk to Chinese officials about the SCS issues, does not necessarily mean it bodes well for China. It's not going to drive the USA nuts. The US doesn't so much care who controls which islands, as long as the owners don't impede air and sea travel, ....and don't militarize. China is developing those things at a fast pace. Another factor: over-fishing and pollution are already happening, but that won't change regardless of who owns the islands. Additionally, the possibility of oil pollution is essentially inevitable.

Re; the prior post with quotes from Wiki. That's relevant to some degree. Taking a step back for perspective, most regions of the world have had territorial changes. Even central China has a long convoluted history of changing alliances/Kingdoms etc. Certainly Europe has.

I think the fairest resolution to the SCS imbroglio is to look at each island/reef individually, and take several things into account:

>>> history, including which nationalities had the most involvement with that island over the past 1,000 years.

>>> For any disputed areas (which is most of 'em) geographic considerations: which country are the islands closest to. Economic Exclusion Zones, etc.

Some factors that should not be important in that mix:

>>> which country, vying for possession, is the biggest, has a larger population, or has the stronger military

>>> which country has been busy terraforming and docking ships/planes.

As a comparison: Let's say there's an abandoned house. 5 families say they want it, though it's not clear which family saw (heard about) it first, so the arbitrator (int'l tribunal) can't decide who should get first dibs on buying it. One of the families moves in and starts using the kitchen, bathrooms, bedrooms. That annoys the other interested parties, but the occupying family says, "tough tamales. While you'all were standing around, we moved in. Now it's ours. Plus we have a bigger family than you and we have weapons, so you only have one choice: Agree it's ours."

"The US doesn't so much care who controls which islands, as long as the owners don't impede air and sea travel,".

Well, I think the biggest use of those sea-lanes is transporting the Chinese goods to Europe. China is not going to impede the Chinese ships going to Europe with the Chinese goods. What about Japanese and South Korean ships carrying goods from THOSE countries to Europe ? Well, I really don't think Beijing is interested in partially blocking or preventing Japanese and South Korean ships. How about Beijing makes a statement to say that they're NOT going to impede ships from Japan, South Korea, whatever other places ? And we wait to see if they do impede other ships ?

"Re; the prior post with quotes from Wiki. That's relevant to some degree".

Sir, the entire reason that justifies the Republic of China's (Taiwan) existing occupation of Taiping Island, surely, is the same reason why Peoples' Republic of China (China) is claiming the same area today ?? The Republic of China was China before 1949, yes, Taiping Island 'belonged' to China before 1949. And it belonged to the Republic of China back then, and it belongs to the Republic of China today. That's why they have their military base there.

"For any disputed areas (which is most of 'em) geographic considerations: which country are the islands closest to."

I put here a link about another disputed island, Diaoyu Islands. I've seen it mentioned here previously. The biggest island there appears to be far closer to the Republic of China and Peoples' Republic of China than it is to Japan. All three claim the islands.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senkaku_Islands_dispute#United_States.27_position

[keemapoot]

I'm going to post an update about the TPP again this morning, and it is directly related, relevant, and strategic to the topic of US military units to stay for SCS sea patrols, ok? If any question, please read the post completely.

Latest updates from Malaysia & Australia are all-ahead flank speed; from New Zealand, all-ahead full speed, and from Singapore all-ahead standard, and from the US, two-thirds speed.

This week trade ministers from the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership countries meet for the first time since signing the deal in Auckland in February, on the sidelines of an Apec meeting in Peru. Implementing the TPP tops the agenda.

The US holds the whip hand because the agreement can't come into force without its approval and that will be given on a country-by-country basis.

But US domestic politics is also the TPP's Achilles heel.

Congress won't approve it without changes: a guarantee of at least eight years' protection for super-expensive biologics medicines (like Keytruda) before cheaper "biosimilars" can enter the market; restoring the tobacco industry's right to sue governments over tobacco control measures; the right of the finance sector to store their data outside the country; plus some genuine trade issues involving cars and dairy.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11639804

Donald Trump’s policy positions may be a kaleidoscope of contradictions, but his message on foreign trade is pretty consistent: exports are good but imports are bad. Hillary Clinton, always a bit ambivalent but at least initially a tentative supporter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (which she described as the ‘gold-standard in trade agreements’), has now changed her mind and ‘currently opposes it in its current form’. The US Congress takes a keen interest in ensuring that trade deals favour American interests.

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/05/16/Why-we-wont-hear-much-about-trade-in-this-campaign.aspx

The U.S. International Trade Commission is set to release its long-awaited estimate of the economic effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership this week, likely with mildly positive findings, but the report won’t quite provide the impetus for congressional action on the deal that the administration had hoped.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade/2016/05/itc-report-wont-unstick-tpp-just-yet-214310#ixzz48r5KqLTU
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

In the US, the TPP has support from both parties, and House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Republican Dave Reichert acknowledged this yesterday citing how critical the TPP was. However, the TPP is widely expected to be supported with some changes by Clinton and expected to be scuttled by Trump (at least judging from all his electioneering rhetoric). However, the mood and actions in preparation in all of the 12 TPP countries is that it will go ahead and get approval from all 12 members, including the US, so that means most members are betting Clinton will win the election, or Trump will modify his position if elected.

The reason this trade pact is important for the current conflict in the SCS has been detailed by this poster and others, but for one thing it creates a deep trade and by implication security pact and working group to oppose any other power disrupting trade in Asia-Pac, and specifically in the SCS. China also is angling for entry by proxy though one or all three of the key members of the "sweet spot" (members of both ASEAN & TPP), and this heavy pull of trade cooperation will act as a militating factor in the speed and intensity that China presses its claims in the SCS.

Bottom line: TPP is good for helping resolve the dispute in the SCS, and will help bring China to the bargaining table as it will be in its best interests to do so.

[LawrenceChee]

Keemapoot

There is no denying that China will leverage its relationship with Singapore & Malaysia to "participate" in this trade deal.

Australia and New Zealand while not as strategic and near to the ASEAN region have their trade ties firmly with China and China will use that too

Vietnam has no cosy relations with China but like China is a very pragmatic Cousin who will trade because it benefits and the current SCS can always be seen as a seperate byline issue.

This I believe is harder for some western countries who often use trade embargoes as a means of negotiation ; in the east making money is seperate from government squabbles and this is why trade associations can always bypass these things ; even at the height of derailed relationships between Taiwan and China in the early 90s , it didn't stop trade from the 2 locations

I believe while the USA try to stay relevant in this region , it will be very difficult if trump is elected as in an Asian mind , he belongs to an asylum and can hardly be the head of a free nation.

China is actively planning ahead for 4 years of frosty relations with USA if he gets elected and heightened tension in SCS but thy can survive waiting for 4 years

There is enough trade for a China trying to slow its growth in this region if there is some substantial slowdown with USA

Won't benefit any of the 2 giants but China can wait for the 4 years to finish ...be a good time to clean up the environment if the Walmart orders does slow down ...

Edited May 17, 2016 by LawrenceChee