New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[churchill]

Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

[jayboy]

Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

Which suggests that a Remain victory is already priced into GBP and thus in this event we won't see much movement beyond say 1.50?

[churchill]

No One to Trust: the Anger That Connects Brexit, Trump, Le Pen ... http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-22/no-one-to-trust-the-anger-that-connects-brexit-trump-le-pen

[churchill]

EU referendum turnout could be dampened by bad weather http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-turnout-could-be-dampened-by-bad-weather/

[chiang mai]

Oh I don't know:

"Betting markets have swung sharply towards “remain”, and now imply around a 75% chance that Britain stays in. If the answer to the country’s biggest political question for a generation is indeed “Remain”, it will be a triumph of youthful optimism over the tyranny of the old". http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

So the iPhone reins, UK social security reins, no worries we will be taken care of reins, what was WW2 reins..........

If some of you want to be controlled by folk who are very different from you, do your thing.....Do not come back crying cos your toilet paper ain't good enough, that classic car in your garage must stay there and not be used on the road.....Mark my words.....

But those EU nuts who control you drink cheaper wine, can retire before you, and are laughing at you for handing over huge amounts of your dosh to retire before you, drink cheaper wine and come into your coutry to work for sod all while you worry about your mortgage payment.....

Rule yourself, take care of your UK family and not those who sponge from YOU..

I would guess for young people today, those who have always known us to be a part of the Eu, the referendum and the thought of leaving might just be a little scary so there's one reason why I think they will vote as expected. The second is they are more flexible in their future thinking, not encumbered by the past and all that entails, probably more futuristic than you or me, certainly me anyway at my age.

[allanos]

Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

[Orac]

Possibly clutching at straws, as the "young" may not have the same emotional attachment

to the EU, as the "old tyrants" have toward the United Kingdom and a life-changing exit door.

Consequently, the "youthful vote" may not materialise.

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

With the reporting restrictions in place i doubt us mere mortals will be privy to such info but i would be amazed if there is not someone outside every polling station keying age, sex, ethnicity and style of dress plus anything else they can think of into a device for real time forcasting hence the importance of market movements and betting odds that those details are driving.

[Bunnychow]

He's voted. Have you? Polls open until 10.00.

Do sensible, grounded UK citizens, of whatever demographic, still have any belief in this egotistical politician?

If there were any reason to vote "out" of the EU, it would be because he has voted to "remain"!

The fact that war criminal voted remain is reason enough to vote exit...he should be in dock in a court of law not a polling booth

[happy Joe]

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

No.

The undecided majority still choose the caution and the status quo at the last moment.

That is why the bookmakers who know this principle, bet for remain against opinion polls.

I also believe that GBP, euro and European stock markets fly away for the same reasons.

[Jip99]

Oh I don't know:

"Betting markets have swung sharply towards “remain”, and now imply around a 75% chance that Britain stays in. If the answer to the country’s biggest political question for a generation is indeed “Remain”, it will be a triumph of youthful optimism over the tyranny of the old". http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

So the iPhone reins, UK social security reins, no worries we will be taken care of reins, what was WW2 reins..........

If some of you want to be controlled by folk who are very different from you, do your thing.....Do not come back crying cos your toilet paper ain't good enough, that classic car in your garage must stay there and not be used on the road.....Mark my words.....

But those EU nuts who control you drink cheaper wine, can retire before you, and are laughing at you for handing over huge amounts of your dosh to retire before you, drink cheaper wine and come into your coutry to work for sod all while you worry about your mortgage payment.....

Rule yourself, take care of your UK family and not those who sponge from YOU..

I would guess for young people today, those who have always known us to be a part of the Eu, the referendum and the thought of leaving might just be a little scary so there's one reason why I think they will vote as expected. The second is they are more flexible in their future thinking, not encumbered by the past and all that entails, probably more futuristic than you or me, certainly me anyway at my age.

Agree.

Those who are not sure are likely to vote on the side of caution.

[allanos]

With the reporting restrictions in place i doubt us mere mortals will be privy to such info but i would be amazed if there is not someone outside every polling station keying age,

sex, ethnicity and style of dress plus anything else they can think of into a device for real time forcasting hence the importance of market movements and betting odds that

those details are driving.

Yes, possibly so. I was rather hoping to hear what sort of pattern might have emerged and be analysed in previous general elections, for example.

It might be possible then to extrapolate it to today's referendum.

[Mosha]

Labour may learn they've lost touch with the working class.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

[SgtRock]

I would hazard a guess that with the strong jump in UK/EU stock markets this morning, the GBP rising over 1.49 to the dollar and the dramatic shortening of the odds of remain an awful lot of smart money is in play and for that sort of coin they will know exactly who has been going through the doors of those polling stations so far.

I don't think you can trust the polls/odds at this stage ..... Some polling stations are closed due to the weather ... Perhaps undecided or border line voters will not bother ...

It will be close whatever the bookies say imo ..

Does anyone of this forum have any sensible comments to make regarding how in/out voting would be playing out during the day.

For example, would the "uneducated 'working man'", "much-beloved" of Grouse, and probably a Brexiteer, be more likely to vote at the

end of the day, as opposed to the educated youthful voter as lauded by Chiang Mai,who may vote at an earlier time?

If so, this may be one explanation of an excess of Remainian votes versus Brexit votes so far.

As Orac has pointed out, exit polls are against the referendum rules but unofficial profiling may well be going on.

I am not the author, neither am I agreeing with this article, but it may well be that people are keeping their voting choices close to their chest.

Brexit supporters urged to take own pens to polling station amid fears of MI5 conspiracy

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-brexit-how-to-vote-own-pens-polling-station-polls-live-latest-mi5-conspiracy-fears-a7097011.html

[chiang mai]

And so it begins.

[Laughing Gravy]

I have to say that the way some TVP behave on here is disgraceful, Yes have an opinion, even disagree but the way some people speak (write) to others,is shameful and disrespectful. We all have opinions and that's fine. I disagree with many people on here at times but that doesn't condone the insults here. Stop it now and grow up.Its a passionate subject but at lest you have an opinion and a vote and allowed to share it. Unlike others- such as China and North Korea, as examples.

I am back in the morning after the result. Hopefully the tone here will be a little more adult.

[taxout]

"That is why the bookmakers who know this principle, bet for remain against opinion polls."

I assume bookmakers, no matter what they know, are keeping their books balanced and that they're going to come out ahead no matter what happens.

[Psimbo]

Labour may learn they've lost touch with the working class.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

They haven't been 'working class' for years!

[roamer]

Oh I don't know:

"Betting markets have swung sharply towards “remain”, and now imply around a 75% chance that Britain stays in. If the answer to the country’s biggest political question for a generation is indeed “Remain”, it will be a triumph of youthful optimism over the tyranny of the old". http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

So the iPhone reins, UK social security reins, no worries we will be taken care of reins, what was WW2 reins..........

If some of you want to be controlled by folk who are very different from you, do your thing.....Do not come back crying cos your toilet paper ain't good enough, that classic car in your garage must stay there and not be used on the road.....Mark my words.....

But those EU nuts who control you drink cheaper wine, can retire before you, and are laughing at you for handing over huge amounts of your dosh to retire before you, drink cheaper wine and come into your coutry to work for sod all while you worry about your mortgage payment.....

Rule yourself, take care of your UK family and not those who sponge from YOU..

I would guess for young people today, those who have always known us to be a part of the Eu, the referendum and the thought of leaving might just be a little scary so there's one reason why I think they will vote as expected. The second is they are more flexible in their future thinking, not encumbered by the past and all that entails, probably more futuristic than you or me, certainly me anyway at my age.

Agree.

Those who are not sure are likely to vote on the side of caution.

A couple of points. My daughter attends a top London university, she tells me that the majority of her classmates are remainers, mainly on the basis that they don't want to see their holiday pound plunge. However, she also tells me that most of them freely admit they might not be bothered to vote. Admittedly these are science/medical students, possibly the social studies students elsewhere may be engaged and more inclined to vote. An unknown.

The weather in London and the south-east is awful. It's been said that many voters who want Brexit would be willing to crawl on hands and knees across broken glass to reach the polling stations. The forecasts are for more torrential rain tonight, this could affect those less commited on the remain side.

It's all to play for, and while I agree the undecided are more likely to vote for the status quo I also wonder how many undecided will reach the polling booths.

And todays figures from the ONS showing the UK population increased by another half million in 2015 won't help the remain side either.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36605899

Edited June 23, 2016 by roamer

[Bunnychow]

Labour may learn they've lost touch with the working class.

Sent from my SMART_4G_Speedy_5inch using Tapatalk

They haven't been 'working class' for years!

What about Baron Neil Kinnock of Bedwetty...?

[Grouse]

Sopme Brexiteers might find this a bit embarassing as it rather kills a few of their sacred cows......

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-facts-brexit-immigration-trade-economy-fishing-leave-remain-what-will-happen-a7095046.html

Are facts permitted on TV?

Actually, should be compulsory reading for voters!

[dabhand]

The movement in the bookies odds make interesting viewing.

The Remain odds at Betfair were at around 1/9 earlier today then shortened to 1/12. Just looked at the current odds and they are now showing 1/8.

Still looking like a safe bet for Remain, but it could get very interesting.

[Grouse]

On he topic of the polls here is something to possibly ponder. I know between 400 and 500 people having lived in various countries and places. Admiringly most are in the UK across all place with some in Europe and the Middle East. From these friends I know 4 people who are for remain. From these people they all have between 3-5 hundred friends. They have stated that no more than 10% of people are for remain. That's all of their friends. When I was in the UK a few weeks ago, all I saw was leave posters on peoples cars and houses and I was in the South and North or England. So from my observation where on earth do these Polls make it even or the remain, winning.

So my point is that I just do not trust Polls as a reflection of the people.

Well something is very strange here. I too am in contact with people in the UK who likewise are mostly 100% will be voting to "leave". They tell me that in various occupations such as construction, people en masse are determined to vote "Out". I have listened a lot to the media and radio phone ins etc., from the UK and a big majority for leaving.

Seems to be the vote not even close. So why are we being told its' neck and neck?

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

That, to me, has to be one of the most demeaning statements I have read for a long time with what it implies.

Does being an engineer make you better than anyone else? Having an education does not equate to having common sense or to mean that you know better than the rest.

It is comments like yours trying to imply you know better than the rest that would have driven me to vote to leave if I was a doubter.

What you fail to realise is that many on here do have an education but they do not have to shout about it.

I fail to understand your extreme sensitivity, but I'm afraid if the cap fits, put it on!

It is a matter of probabilities

Contributors here don't seem to understand statistics.

The point is that ABC1s are MORE LIKELY to vote remain. Nobody is saying that all will.

Can you understand that?

In the same way C2DEs will TEND TO vote Brexit.

My point was that the result may indicate what the balance is

There was a piece in The Economist recently which makes the same point

BTW, if you vote Brexit nobody is saying you are in the C2DE group!

I don't know why I bother frankly.....

[Asiantravel]

Robots to Pay “Social Security” Under EU Tax Proposal

https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/22/robots-to-pay-social-security-under-eu-tax-proposal/

[cumgranosalum]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Oh good, you're back.

Are you still maintaining that votes should be cast on Friday - or, according to another post, votes to 'remain' should be cast today, and votes to leave should be cast tomorrow?

Always good to hear from a poster that has outright lied.

Really? Surely he didn't get it wrong?

nevertheless I'd check if I were you - QED - seems to confirm many suspicions about Brexiteers though, doesn't it?

Yes, I'm sure it was v 'funny' . Some people have a weird sense of humour on polling day, but happy that this outright lie confirmed your view about those with a different opinion.

It confirms my opinion that some people are just too dim to spot a wind up...or should that be "too gullible"?

Edited June 23, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[chiang mai]

Unadulterated bribery, nothing less: German sports newspaper Bild vows to accept Geoff Hurst’s England World Cup goal if Britain votes Remain

"The paper also vows to "do without our goalkeeper for the next round of penalties", "stop making jokes about Prince Charles's ears" and never use sunscreen on beaches again "in solidarity with your sunburns" among other promises".

http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/eu-referendum-german-sports-newspaper-bild-vows-to-accept-geoff-hurst-s-england-world-cup-goal-if-a3279161.html

[Grouse]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Sick. Remove please

Not sure why you're bothered by this silly post (from a proven liar), when you have no compunction in calling those that disagree with you uneducated and stupid?

People who disagree with me are not necessarily uneducated or stupid. However, uneducated and/or stupid people will tend to vote Brexit ?

Then you are calling half the UK populous stupid cos they don't agree with a guy (you) that has investments that may suffer...?

Do you specialise in being wrong? You're very good at it!

Wrong on both counts here:

I am not saying half the population is stupid. I am saying stupid and/or uninformed people will tend to vote Brexit. Please confirm in triplicate that you understand that.

2) My investments will NOT be harmed whatever happens. I hedged everything a while ago. Do you understand what that means?

[WhamBam]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

Does that imply you are happy to have rapists, murderers, paedophiles and such like in the U.K. ?

It seems to me that you - being so clever - want us to have these scum in the U.K.?

Going to Sweden or Denmark will not help. I read in Breitbart they have the same problems there with children molested in swimming pools. Same with Germany.

Now, if you cannot tolerate people with my type of attitude (me wanting these scum out of our country), I will be glad to see the back of the likes of you if I am honest.

I would rather live in a country where scum like those I mentioned, be deported and never allowed back in.

[Grouse]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

If the UK remains in the EU can i request you give up your UK citizenship anyway and go to Denmark or Germany anyway and afford youself of those countries welfare systems instead of the UKs...brain drain...LOL

You real think I draw some kind of welfare!

Haha! I can't see myself EVER retiring. I have 6 engineering companies in Thailand

However, if I was in such a position, there are countries MUCH more civilised than the UK.

I chose Germany or Denmark because I happen to speak the languages

?

[Grouse]

One of these peole can still vote on the referendum....which way will you vote?

Ahhhh, yes.

Human rights. Now then, who introduced that? Which organisation supports that?

We want the scum out of OUR country but we are prevented from doing so.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, sums up the average brexiteer's attitude. How nice. I tell you this, IF Brexit prevails I shall leave and obtain citizenship of a different country, probably Germany or Denmark. I will not be the only one, could be quite a brain drain. I really can not tolerate awful people with awful attitudes. Embarrassing.

Does that imply you are happy to have rapists, murderers, paedophiles and such like in the U.K. ?

It seems to me that you - being so clever - want us to have these scum in the U.K.?

Going to Sweden or Denmark will not help. I read in Breitbart they have the same problems there with children molested in swimming pools. Same with Germany.

Now, if you cannot tolerate people with my type of attitude (me wanting these scum out of our country), I will be glad to see the back of the likes of you if I am honest.

I would rather live in a country where scum like those I mentioned, be deported and never allowed back in.

The U.K. Is now able to deport criminals to their own countries. This is quite new and just kicking in now. This the first time (to my knowledge) that your "scum" are defined as immigrants that have committed a crime? Frankly, I prefer to live in a country where there is a little more politeness. ?

[chiang mai]

I'm guessing that Sterling strength is on the back of private exit polls commissioned by banks and hedge funds, they know something we don't and that something is reflected in Sterling strength. But it's way too early in the day for even those results to be conclusive. Plus Sterling at 1.47 is not sustainable, perhaps look for it to fall later in the day as positions are consolidated. Also, brokers/banks/insitutions are all on 24 hour work schedules throughout the vote hence the patterns are going to be far from normal.