Even though we voted for it, a Brexit won't happen in the end. Here's why

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Voices
Even though we voted for it, a Brexit won't happen in the end. Here's why
I voted Leave – but, looking at the reasons, it's undeniable that we'll stay in the European Union after all
Sean O'Grady

LONDON: -- Even for an optimistic Brexiteer like me, the last few days have been difficult. Many people who voted out are already feeling a bit betrayed as certain fundamental truths sink in.

The “uncertainty” is already affecting the real economy as we see. Project Fear probably understated some of the dangers, though overstated others absurdly, the latter as former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King has said (a calm voice in these frenetic times).

Before long this uncertainty will feed through even more concretely from the slightly abstract world of financial markets and exchange rates through to jobs, savings, and, above all, the value of people’s homes, which is where most people’s wealth is stored (especially some of the less well-off voters who opted for “Leave”).

This is really why I suspect Brexit won’t, in the end, come to pass – because most voters can’t afford it in the short run, whatever the longer term advantages. Call it blackmail by the financiers or the Establishment if you wish, but it is a fairly nasty ransom note all the same. Here are the reasons, in some sort of logical order, why Brexit won’t happen:

Regret is high and numbers were low

The margin for Leave was pretty small, in reality, and so the mandate is weak.

Full story: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-wont-really-happen-second-referendum-markets-value-housing-pound-a7106996.html

-- INDEPENDENT 2016-06-29

[Jingthing]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

[KarenBravo]

Other European countries are seeing it in simple terms.

You voted to leave, so you will leave.

There is no mechanism to reverse this vote and another referendum is out of the question.

The UK is leaving (unfortunately).

[tonray]

The EU has been foolish to link social policy (ie migration) with trade and economic/financial/production standards. Having said that, the UK vote to extricate itself was also foolish because it has already wiped trillions off global wealth and puts Britain a precarious position. The positive thinkers keep saying 'no problem, Britain has a strong and vibrant economy so we will do fine". not so fast...the economy is strong and vibrant partly because of the EU relationship and not in spite of it. imported labor, exports and trade relatiobships all contribute and will have to be replaced with a new plan, a plan which the Brexiters clearly do not have.

Like Donald Trump 'may' learn....renegotiating trade agreements that you deem are not in your favor may not be the cakewalk you believe.

[neverdie]

Other European countries are seeing it in simple terms.

You voted to leave, so you will leave.

There is no mechanism to reverse this vote and another referendum is out of the question.

The UK is leaving (unfortunately).

It's leaving and will eventually be better off for it.

theres just a few hundred miles of bumpy road to traverse.

A couple of generations from now, if there's still life on this planet, nobody will give it a second thought .

[MJP]

Other European countries are seeing it in simple terms.

You voted to leave, so you will leave.

There is no mechanism to reverse this vote and another referendum is out of the question.

The UK is leaving (unfortunately).

It's leaving and will eventually be better off for it.

theres just a few hundred miles of bumpy road to traverse.

A couple of generations from now, if there's still life on this planet, nobody will give it a second thought .

One thing the British care about more than anything, more than their freedom, more than their Granny . . . is house prices.

Gawd, it's so lame!

[Gweiloman]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

Sadly, your understanding is wrong. I don't blame you though if you obtained most of your understanding from just listening to the reasons given by the remainers who lost the referendum.

If you want to delve a bit deeper to have a better understanding, take a look at this video. Among the very many good videos out there as to why the UK should leave, this is imo one of the better ones

[dick dasterdly]

The article concentrates on the wrong points IMO.

I think the headline is probably true - but it has nothing to do with the medias' exaggerations about voter regret etc.

The vast majority of Brit. MPs want to remain in the EU, as does big business and the EU. So I'd be v suprised if they don't come up with an excuse - new PM/new deal with the EU/general election required etc. etc.

[manfredtillmann]

the 'power houses' of the eu have made it quiet clear that there is no return for gb. and particularly not while hoping to negotiate better terms.

[Gweiloman]

The EU has been foolish to link social policy (ie migration) with trade and economic/financial/production standards. Having said that, the UK vote to extricate itself was also foolish because it has already wiped trillions off global wealth and puts Britain a precarious position. The positive thinkers keep saying 'no problem, Britain has a strong and vibrant economy so we will do fine". not so fast...the economy is strong and vibrant partly because of the EU relationship and not in spite of it. imported labor, exports and trade relatiobships all contribute and will have to be replaced with a new plan, a plan which the Brexiters clearly do not have.

Like Donald Trump 'may' learn....renegotiating trade agreements that you deem are not in your favor may not be the cakewalk you believe.

Not only is the EU linking social policy with all the others you mentioned. The EU project is one of a superstate, with it's own currency, flag, militray, judiciary, executive and legislative. All member states will merely become states within this, reporting to a central government and compliant to the laws laid by this parliament.

[ilostmypassword]

The EU has been foolish to link social policy (ie migration) with trade and economic/financial/production standards. Having said that, the UK vote to extricate itself was also foolish because it has already wiped trillions off global wealth and puts Britain a precarious position. The positive thinkers keep saying 'no problem, Britain has a strong and vibrant economy so we will do fine". not so fast...the economy is strong and vibrant partly because of the EU relationship and not in spite of it. imported labor, exports and trade relatiobships all contribute and will have to be replaced with a new plan, a plan which the Brexiters clearly do not have.

Like Donald Trump 'may' learn....renegotiating trade agreements that you deem are not in your favor may not be the cakewalk you believe.

Not only is the EU linking social policy with all the others you mentioned. The EU project is one of a superstate, with it's own currency, flag, militray, judiciary, executive and legislative. All member states will merely become states within this, reporting to a central government and compliant to the laws laid by this parliament.

And how exactly will they bring this state into being? The European parliament would have to vote on it. Do you believe that the votes are there? And of course, if the votes were there, then any nation could invoke article 50 and withdraw. I used to think that this kind of ludicrous speculation was the preserve of the American right. Actually, I think they may have learned it from the Europeans.

[KNJ]

The people of the UK have spoken and regardless of MPs desire, they cannot ignore the referendum result.

Nothing can happen until article 50 is triggered and that is months away from now, and regardless of a new PM or a new parliament the decision will stand.

The EU will most certainly not discuss nor make any concessions for the UK, so that is a non starter and thus the referendum stands, asking for a second vote on the same issue will not happen, nor will individual discussions between EU and Scotland or NI.

Post article 50, Scotland will push again for separation, that will nmost likely happen at their cost, but equally they may fail the criteria for joining EU

[Dagnabbit]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

[Dagnabbit]

The EU has been foolish to link social policy (ie migration) with trade and economic/financial/production standards. Having said that, the UK vote to extricate itself was also foolish because it has already wiped trillions off global wealth and puts Britain a precarious position. The positive thinkers keep saying 'no problem, Britain has a strong and vibrant economy so we will do fine". not so fast...the economy is strong and vibrant partly because of the EU relationship and not in spite of it. imported labor, exports and trade relatiobships all contribute and will have to be replaced with a new plan, a plan which the Brexiters clearly do not have.

Like Donald Trump 'may' learn....renegotiating trade agreements that you deem are not in your favor may not be the cakewalk you believe.

Nothing has been wiped off.

The financial markets overreacted and the markets will bounce back as it becomes clear that Europe wants to keep exporting to the UK

[ilostmypassword]

The people of the UK have spoken and regardless of MPs desire, they cannot ignore the referendum result. Nothing can happen until article 50 is triggered and that is months away from now, and regardless of a new PM or a new parliament the decision will stand. The EU will most certainly not discuss nor make any concessions for the UK, so that is a non starter and thus the referendum stands, asking for a second vote on the same issue will not happen, nor will individual discussions between EU and Scotland or NI. Post article 50, Scotland will push again for separation, that will nmost likely happen at their cost, but equally they may fail the criteria for joining EU

Let's say the 3 months on, public opinion has turned strongly against Brexit. If that should occur do you really believe that the government is going to invoke article 50? They're politicians. They want to keep their jobs. Going against what they believe to be public opinion not such a common thing in the political world. I'm not saying the Brexit will become unpopular but it could happen depending on the fallout from the referendum.

[dick dasterdly]

It will be fascinating to see whether or not article 50 is invoked.

[bkkcanuck8]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

I saw an exit poll graphic that stated the largest concern of those that voted Leave was .... Immigration..... i.e. too many foreigners..... now some of those that voted to leave based on Immigration might have voted that way because they love "foreigners".... but I have a feeling... not many.... Whether that is xenophobia or racism ... I guess it is all up to the person interpreting why Immigration was such an important issue.

[Gweiloman]

I have an idea. Let's have a referendum on whether there should be a second referendum

[dick dasterdly]

The people of the UK have spoken and regardless of MPs desire, they cannot ignore the referendum result. Nothing can happen until article 50 is triggered and that is months away from now, and regardless of a new PM or a new parliament the decision will stand. The EU will most certainly not discuss nor make any concessions for the UK, so that is a non starter and thus the referendum stands, asking for a second vote on the same issue will not happen, nor will individual discussions between EU and Scotland or NI. Post article 50, Scotland will push again for separation, that will nmost likely happen at their cost, but equally they may fail the criteria for joining EU

Let's say the 3 months on, public opinion has turned strongly against Brexit. If that should occur do you really believe that the government is going to invoke article 50? They're politicians. They want to keep their jobs. Going against what they believe to be public opinion not such a common thing in the political world. I'm not saying the Brexit will become unpopular but it could happen depending on the fallout from the referendum.

The referendum has made it clear that the politicians either have no idea of public opinion or, don't care about public opinion and rely on scare tactics to bring voters back into line.

[Caps]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

some folk talk utter rubbish since when has wanting to take back control of your country and maintain a good relationship with Europe been racist and xenophobic?

[Gweiloman]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

I saw an exit poll graphic that stated the largest concern of those that voted Leave was .... Immigration..... i.e. too many foreigners..... now some of those that voted to leave based on Immigration might have voted that way because they love "foreigners".... but I have a feeling... not many.... Whether that is xenophobia or racism ... I guess it is all up to the person interpreting why Immigration was such an important issue.

It is neither xenophobia nor racism. When was the last time you were in Europe? You might have a better understanding of how the people are feeling.

I flew into Copenhagen recently and took a train to Malmo. Can you believe that there is a border check at both train stations (in Cph and in Malmo)? Also security fencing running in between the train lines?

Go to Brussels. Army personnel are stationed in front of most hotels.

Go to Paris. Actually, come to think of it, less Parisiens are probably preferable, haha.

[Basil B]

I voted to remain, but following the shock result I am resigned to us leaving.

And following the very nasty nature of some or the European Leaders and Bureaucrats to us I certainly will not vote remain if there is another referendum.

Further more before any negotiations start ..."Junkers must Go"

[dick dasterdly]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

I saw an exit poll graphic that stated the largest concern of those that voted Leave was .... Immigration..... i.e. too many foreigners..... now some of those that voted to leave based on Immigration might have voted that way because they love "foreigners".... but I have a feeling... not many.... Whether that is xenophobia or racism ... I guess it is all up to the person interpreting why Immigration was such an important issue.

Have to agree, far too many Brits are racist . Edit -change from English as I've had to endure a couple of tirades from Irish about 'foreigners' .

On the other hand, IMO its a reasonable argument that non-skilled foreigners should not be allowed into the UK as the are cutting pay for the already badly paid UK workers.

I'd make an exception for plumbers though !

Edited June 29, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Was reading an interesting stock market commentary from the U.S. the other day...

It suggested, in the wake of Brexit, that the English-speaking western countries form their own trade/employment etc zone, encompassing U.S., Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, etc.

Interesting idea, IMHO.

[ilostmypassword]

My understanding is that a lot of people voted to leave based on xenophobia and racism. So the day after their "victory" they realized the Poles and the Muslims, etc. aren't going anywhere. Oops!

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

I saw an exit poll graphic that stated the largest concern of those that voted Leave was .... Immigration..... i.e. too many foreigners..... now some of those that voted to leave based on Immigration might have voted that way because they love "foreigners".... but I have a feeling... not many.... Whether that is xenophobia or racism ... I guess it is all up to the person interpreting why Immigration was such an important issue.

Have to agree, far too many English are racist .

On the other hand, IMO its a reasonable argument that non-skilled foreigners should not be allowed into the UK as the are cutting pay for the already badly paid UK workers.

I'd make an exception for plumbers though !

Unfortunately for the UK, for the EU that demand is a non-starter. If they have do it for the UK, then it will have to be allowed for EU members as well. And in that case, it's longer a genuine economic union.

[KarenBravo]

I voted to remain, but following the shock result I am resigned to us leaving.

And following the very nasty nature of some or the European Leaders and Bureaucrats to us I certainly will not vote remain if there is another referendum.

Further more before any negotiations start ..."Junkers must Go"

Oh man! A missed opportunity.

You should have said "Junkers must be junked".

[ilostmypassword]

Was reading an interesting stock market commentary from the U.S. the other day...

It suggested, in the wake of Brexit, that the English-speaking western countries form their own trade/employment etc zone, encompassing U.S., Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, etc.

Interesting idea, IMHO.

Because automobiles manufactured by English speaking people will be easier to use? Will run faster? Use less fuel? What rational economic basis is there for this?

[dick dasterdly]

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

I saw an exit poll graphic that stated the largest concern of those that voted Leave was .... Immigration..... i.e. too many foreigners..... now some of those that voted to leave based on Immigration might have voted that way because they love "foreigners".... but I have a feeling... not many.... Whether that is xenophobia or racism ... I guess it is all up to the person interpreting why Immigration was such an important issue.

Have to agree, far too many English are racist .

On the other hand, IMO its a reasonable argument that non-skilled foreigners should not be allowed into the UK as the are cutting pay for the already badly paid UK workers.

I'd make an exception for plumbers though !

Unfortunately for the UK, for the EU that demand is a non-starter. If they have do it for the UK, then it will have to be allowed for EU members as well. And in that case, it's longer a genuine economic union.

I gather China has somehow got away with this? Albeit tariffs are imposed on products dumped in the EU.

Edited June 29, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[ilostmypassword]

Then you clearly have no understanding whatsoever.

I saw an exit poll graphic that stated the largest concern of those that voted Leave was .... Immigration..... i.e. too many foreigners..... now some of those that voted to leave based on Immigration might have voted that way because they love "foreigners".... but I have a feeling... not many.... Whether that is xenophobia or racism ... I guess it is all up to the person interpreting why Immigration was such an important issue.

Have to agree, far too many English are racist .

On the other hand, IMO its a reasonable argument that non-skilled foreigners should not be allowed into the UK as the are cutting pay for the already badly paid UK workers.

I'd make an exception for plumbers though !

Unfortunately for the UK, for the EU that demand is a non-starter. If they have do it for the UK, then it will have to be allowed for EU members as well. And in that case, it's longer a genuine economic union.

I gather China has somehow got away with this? Albeit they are not allowed to 'dump' produce in the EU?

China has got away with what? Shipping over mass quantities of its citizens to work in the EU? What has produce got to do with the free movement of labor?

[Gweiloman]

I voted to remain, but following the shock result I am resigned to us leaving.

And following the very nasty nature of some or the European Leaders and Bureaucrats to us I certainly will not vote remain if there is another referendum.

Further more before any negotiations start ..."Junkers must Go"

Even now that the British public have spoken, the arrogance still remains. He is still trying to dictate terms:

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said the UK did not have "months to meditate" on activating Article 50, which will trigger talks on the country's withdrawal from the EU.

"If someone from the Remain camp will become British prime minister, this has to be done in two weeks after his appointment," he said.

"If the next British PM is coming from the Leave campaign, it should be done the day after his appointment."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36656753