Why Dump Trump effort faces likely defeat at GOP convention

[webfact]

Why Dump Trump effort faces likely defeat at GOP convention
By ALAN FRAM

WASHINGTON (AP) — Despite a continuing effort and lots of noise by a band of insurgents, Donald Trump and the Republican Party are on track to defeat rebels trying to head off his nomination at this month's convention.

Far from giving up, the "dump Trump" forces are seeking new supporters and spending money to run ads, hire staff and set up office space near the GOP convention site in Cleveland to try to prevent the real estate mogul from becoming the GOP presidential nominee. Here's why it will be hard for them to succeed:

___

THE NUMBERS ...


—Numbers are stacked against the insurgents. Trump triumphed in the vast majority of this year's primaries and caucuses, giving him 1,542 delegates, according to The Associated Press. That's well above the 1,237 needed to clinch the nomination.

Now, it's true those delegates can vote however they wish during convention battles to change the rules, so delegates pledged to a candidate could back anyone they want. And you can count on such defections, because some delegates representing Trump actually prefer his defeated rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, or others.

But Trump still has a big numerical advantage.

According to an informal count by one party insider, Trump can rely on a solid 900 delegates, compared to a combined 650 Trump opponents plus delegates backing Cruz or other candidates.

That leaves over 900 remaining delegates. Trump would need only about a third of them to prevail. And don't forget, many delegates are party regulars inclined to want a gathering that's peaceful, not a GOP civil war on prime time TV.

The anti-Trump forces have said they have more than 400 delegate supporters.

___

THE ESTABLISHMENT ...

—The Republican Party hierarchy has largely been lining up behind the real estate mogul, despite his divisive statements and unruliness as a candidate.

Their argument: Whatever Trump's faults, how do you take the nomination away from the guy who won 13.4 million votes, far more than his opponents? And besides, who's the alternative candidate?

Along with staff from Trump's still small campaign, members of the Republican National Committee, state GOP leaders and others have formed a team of around 150 "whips" who are contacting delegates and cajoling them, though perhaps not always gently.

Kay Godwin, a Cruz delegate from Georgia who backs the effort to "unbind" delegates from their pledged candidates, says one Georgia GOP official said her group is "'tearing the party apart,' which is ridiculous."

On the 112-member convention rules committee, a likely battleground for efforts to free the delegates, around a third are from the 168-member GOP national committee and most will loyally back Trump in rules fights.

There are exceptions. Also on that rules committee is Colorado delegate Kendal Unruh, a leader of the fight to let delegates to vote their "conscience," and North Dakota RNC member Curly Haugland, who has long insisted that even under current rules, delegates are free to back anyone.

Many RNC members say the rebels will lose overwhelmingly in committee votes.

___

COUNTER MOVES

—Unruh says she has enough votes on the rules committee to allow the full convention to vote on her "conscience" proposal — she needs just 28 votes for that to happen. Her opponents say she'd lose in full convention anyway, but are countering with their own amendments.

An RNC member from Oregon, Solomon Yue, is proposing that any rules changes take effect only after this month's convention, to "take the politics out of" the rules debate.

Arizona RNC member Bruce Ash, a GOP rules expert, is offering language aimed at ensuring that delegates remain bound to their candidates.

Another tactic party officials are discussing: using their muscle to prevent any rules changes, period. They argue the current rules already mean delegates must stay with their candidates.

___

REBELS' LEVERAGE

—They may be outnumbered, but the dump Trumpers have cards they could try playing to be disruptive.

Under current rules, a sympathetic delegate can slow down roll calls by demanding that their state delegation chairman recount the tally. They could force roll calls on minor matters that would usually pass quickly by voice vote, and lodge other time-consuming procedural challenges.

"We should not be bound by a prime-time television schedule," Regina Thomson, a Colorado delegate and executive director of Free the Delegates, said recently during a conference call of rebellious Republicans.

There's a limit to that strategy.

The convention's presiding officer, which at times will be House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the convention chairman, doesn't always have to recognize delegates seeking recognition. And if the dissenters try the same tactic repeatedly, he or she can rule their moves dilatory and move on.

Another dissidents' hope — what if Trump's poll numbers get really, really bad?

"What is the Republican Party's tipping point?" asked Steve Lonegan, a leader of Courageous Conservatives, which is backing the rebellion by raising money for ads and other expenses. "Is it down 10 points, 12 points, 20 points?"


-- (c) Associated Press 2016-07-05

[Jingthing]

It will better for the nation for their efforts to fail.

The republican party CREATED this horrific fascist monster movement of DANGEROUS donald trump.

It needs to play out.

They need to nominate him and decent republicans need to work for HILLARY CLINTON.

Get this fascist poison out of their system with a landslide defeat.

If they did manage to block him, the trump movement would fester and grow and not be properly killed.

[up2u2]

No way. Come on Trump won fair and square. He is the Republican candidate. Put it to a General Election.

[ukrules]

No way. Come on Trump won fair and square. He is the Republican candidate. Put it to a General Election.

Absolutely, Trump has far surpassed all the other losers.

If by some method as yet unknown Donald Trump doesn't become the official GOP candidate at this stage and with this number of delegates then I suspect the whole party will disintegrate into chaos. Of course this might happen anyway.

[NovaBlue05]

The establishment took the masses for granted thinking they would waltz to November with Jeb & Hillary on the ballot and their interests covered either way.

Their problem now is that the typical voter choosing their GOP flavor is just a little more pizzed off than the ones choosing the Dem flavor. Sanders demonstrated that's about to blow open too.

[jackh]

It won't be long now.....Say hello to our new president, Donald Trump.

The times they are a changing.... for the better!

[Pinot]

Republicans have already decided party over what's good for the nation.

Imagining nominating this thin skinned racist bully as President of the United States?

I couldn't be happier. The Republicans are going to swamped by a landslide in November with the Senate going over to the Dems. It's all so deserved. Som nom na.

As the great Charlie Pierce recently wrote at Esquire, “Our politics are not supposed to be vulnerable to this kind of abject farce.” But here you are, GOP, stuck in a dead-end relationship with someone who, when all is said and done, may prove to be the very thing that Trump himself so loves to call other people: a loser.

Republicans brought it upon themselves through decades of encouraging rage and ignorance, ignoring the realities of economic inequality and social injustice and creating a government and politics of dysfunctional inertia.

It is, however, incredibly entertaining.

[bark]

MMA - 200 Trump vs Clinton. " Live "

[Pinot]

It will better for the nation for their efforts to fail.

The republican party CREATED this horrific fascist monster movement of DANGEROUS donald trump.

It needs to play out.

They need to nominate him and decent republicans need to work for HILLARY CLINTON.

Get this fascist poison out of their system with a landslide defeat.

If they did manage to block him, the trump movement would fester and grow and not be properly killed.

I wonder what the Republican party will look like after November, after the self immolation. I see it as the end of the Republican party but maybe that's just wishful thinking.

The same paranoid wingnuts will be wandering around making up conspiracies and hating on HRC but with what kind of structure? They'll still have the Ministry of Propaganda, Fox News, but with what kind of structure? Will Trump still be leading after getting crushed? I doubt it. So, who then? Paul Ryan? Sarah Palin? Louie Gohmert?

Ahhhh, who cares. They're toast.

[boomerangutang]

It's like a summer camp where the kids are allowed to vote for their final meal.

Among the choices: pizza, hot dogs, or orange candy. They choose the candy. Camp councilors realize too late; the kids will all get sick. It's too late, candy is heaped on their plates, all the kids get sick.

It's a sad commentary on the GOP that they don't have one halfway decent candidate as a possible replacement. They're stuck with dumbasses, and dumberasses.

[Rimbuman]

Anyone in the right mind can see there is no justifiable path for this, Trump took them by surprise and will win while they have no hands free because they have to keep their hands on the pot lids trying to control scandal after scandal.

[dunroaming]

No point in trying to stop Trump now. Much better to let him run. That is the only way to really see what the USA wants. he won't win but it will be interesting to see how close he actually gets. Clinton is despised, not trusted and the weakest candidate put forward by the democrats for a very long time. If there was ever a chance for the republicans to take it, it should be now!

[thaibeachlovers]

It will better for the nation for their efforts to fail.

The republican party CREATED this horrific fascist monster movement of DANGEROUS donald trump.

It needs to play out.

They need to nominate him and decent republicans need to work for HILLARY CLINTON.

Get this fascist poison out of their system with a landslide defeat.

If they did manage to block him, the trump movement would fester and grow and not be properly killed.

WOW You must be really, really terrified that Trump will win to keep posting that sort of stuff. Now tell us why, other than you say so, any Republican should vote for "crooked Hillary"? Despising Trump doesn't make HRC a decent candidate.

[boomerangutang]

No point in trying to stop Trump now. Much better to let him run. That is the only way to really see what the USA wants. he won't win but it will be interesting to see how close he actually gets. Clinton is despised, not trusted and the weakest candidate put forward by the democrats for a very long time. If there was ever a chance for the republicans to take it, it should be now!

If you despise HRC, then you've been drinking the cool-aid the Reps keep putting out on the picnic table.

Have you listened to a stump speech by her? My guess is; you haven't. Instead, you're chanting the "Hillary is evil, Hillary is evil" mantra because you've heard it so often from the Republican Attack Machine.

If you want to see another example of how people can be forced to think in a certain way; look at North Korea. Repetition can be effective. Most people can be hypnotized. I can't. Maybe that's why I never fell for the 'hate Hillary' mind-control game.

[thaibeachlovers]

It's like a summer camp where the kids are allowed to vote for their final meal.

Among the choices: pizza, hot dogs, or orange candy. They choose the candy. Camp councilors realize too late; the kids will all get sick. It's too late, candy is heaped on their plates, all the kids get sick.

It's a sad commentary on the GOP that they don't have one halfway decent candidate as a possible replacement. They're stuck with dumbasses, and dumberasses.

LOL. Your problem is that while you may not like Trump, HRC is a really, really bad candidate.

To use your analogy, the campers meal would be tripe. Now that would make me sick for sure.

[thaibeachlovers]

No point in trying to stop Trump now. Much better to let him run. That is the only way to really see what the USA wants. he won't win but it will be interesting to see how close he actually gets. Clinton is despised, not trusted and the weakest candidate put forward by the democrats for a very long time. If there was ever a chance for the republicans to take it, it should be now!

If you despise HRC, then you've been drinking the cool-aid the Reps keep putting out on the picnic table.

Have you listened to a stump speech by her? My guess is; you haven't. Instead, you're chanting the "Hillary is evil, Hillary is evil" mantra because you've heard it so often from the Republican Attack Machine.

If you want to see another example of how people can be forced to think in a certain way; look at North Korea. Repetition can be effective. Most people can be hypnotized. I can't. Maybe that's why I never fell for the 'hate Hillary' mind-control game.

WOW, you actually believe what a politician on an election trail says. 55555555555555555555555555555

I have a bridge for sale, really cheap.

BTW Cool Aid must be selling a lot, as millions and millions of Americans dislike HRC.

[thaibeachlovers]

Republicans have already decided party over what's good for the nation.

Imagining nominating this thin skinned racist bully as President of the United States?

I couldn't be happier. The Republicans are going to swamped by a landslide in November with the Senate going over to the Dems. It's all so deserved. Som nom na.

As the great Charlie Pierce recently wrote at Esquire, “Our politics are not supposed to be vulnerable to this kind of abject farce.” But here you are, GOP, stuck in a dead-end relationship with someone who, when all is said and done, may prove to be the very thing that Trump himself so loves to call other people: a loser.

Republicans brought it upon themselves through decades of encouraging rage and ignorance, ignoring the realities of economic inequality and social injustice and creating a government and politics of dysfunctional inertia.

It is, however, incredibly entertaining.

Oops, thought you were talking about the Dems till I read it again 555555555555555555555555555.

[mrwebb8825]

I hope they do pull some stupid crap so Trump can split from them, run independant and post out the names of all those twatwaffles for their constituents to see and vote them all OUT of office for not heeding their wishes.

[boomerangutang]

If you despise HRC, then you've been drinking the cool-aid the Reps keep putting out on the picnic table.

Have you listened to a stump speech by her? My guess is; you haven't. Instead, you're chanting the "Hillary is evil, Hillary is evil" mantra because you've heard it so often from the Republican Attack Machine.

If you want to see another example of how people can be forced to think in a certain way; look at North Korea. Repetition can be effective. Most people can be hypnotized. I can't. Maybe that's why I never fell for the 'hate Hillary' mind-control game.

WOW, you actually believe what a politician on an election trail says. 55555555555555555555555555555

I have a bridge for sale, really cheap.

BTW Cool Aid must be selling a lot, as millions and millions of Americans dislike HRC.

I don't believe everything a politician promises during an election. But listening to a stump speech can shed a lot of light on a candidate. Here are some ways.....

>>> can gauge what that candidates' priorities are. Trump's are empty platitudes mixed with appearing tough. Anybody can get on a stage and say things like, 'I bring jobs, I'll balance the budget, I'll be tough." Trumps record on jobs is mostly NOT PAYING WORKERS, AFTER WORK IS DONE. If Trump were decent about every other issue, that one issue (not paying workers) would seal a no-vote for him, in my view. There are few things lower than hiring someone, waiting until they finish the job, and then not paying 'em. The Divider has done that to tens of thousands of jitled workers. Look it up.

>>> see whether a candidate can put a coherent sentence together. Trump can't.

>>> gauge their leanings on scientific issues. Trump is anti-science and awful on environmental issues. HRC listens to scientists, and cares about slowing environmental destruction.

>>> gauge how decent each candidate is. Trump scores an F on decency.

[slipperylobster]

Hillary has no record of success in office.

She has been tried and tested....and failed miserably.

Everything she does ends up in an investigation.

You people are talking mayhem....just to elect a female.

(Especially this lying sack of krap).

Her being above the law and sneering at our Justice System makes me retch.

Trump is by far....the lessor of two evils.

[boomerangutang]

Hillary has no record of success in office.

She has been tried and tested....and failed miserably.

Everything she does ends up in an investigation.

You people are talking mayhem....just to elect a female.

(Especially this lying sack of krap).

Her being above the law and sneering at our Justice System makes me retch.

Trump is by far....the lessor of two evils.

As usual, you're wrong. HRC, while NY state senator, got a bill passed to compensate first responders for ailments they suffered from the toxic smoke of 9-11. NYC's fire dept. commemorated her for that.

The lady also got added compensation for Coal workers who lost their jobs. Many of the coal companies which went belly-up hadn't put aside sufficient funds for out-of-work miners.

What has The Divider done for anyone other than himself? He's forced thousands of workers to file 'mechanics liens' because the workers didn't get paid as promised - after they finished doing their jobs. Trump personally didn't pay dishwashers overtime, when one of his gala events went hours longer than planned. "Screw 'em. Let 'em sue me. I'll tie them up in court for years. They'll all go broke, ha ha ha ha ha. They're just low-end dishwashers. They're losers. ha ha ha ha."

[thaibeachlovers]

Hillary has no record of success in office.

She has been tried and tested....and failed miserably.

Everything she does ends up in an investigation.

You people are talking mayhem....just to elect a female.

(Especially this lying sack of krap).

Her being above the law and sneering at our Justice System makes me retch.

Trump is by far....the lessor of two evils.

As usual, you're wrong. HRC, while NY state senator, got a bill passed to compensate first responders for ailments they suffered from the toxic smoke of 9-11. NYC's fire dept. commemorated her for that.

The lady also got added compensation for Coal workers who lost their jobs. Many of the coal companies which went belly-up hadn't put aside sufficient funds for out-of-work miners.

What has The Divider done for anyone other than himself? He's forced thousands of workers to file 'mechanics liens' because the workers didn't get paid as promised - after they finished doing their jobs. Trump personally didn't pay dishwashers overtime, when one of his gala events went hours longer than planned. "Screw 'em. Let 'em sue me. I'll tie them up in court for years. They'll all go broke, ha ha ha ha ha. They're just low-end dishwashers. They're losers. ha ha ha ha."

The lady also got added compensation for Coal workers who lost their jobs

And, why did they lose their jobs- because Obama made the coal companies close down. As she worked for him, it was quite right that they compensated the redundant workers.

BTW, who do you think the coal miners will be voting for? Clue, it won't be HRC.

[slipperylobster]

Hillary has no record of success in office.

She has been tried and tested....and failed miserably.

Everything she does ends up in an investigation.

You people are talking mayhem....just to elect a female.

(Especially this lying sack of krap).

Her being above the law and sneering at our Justice System makes me retch.

Trump is by far....the lessor of two evils.

As usual, you're wrong. HRC, while NY state senator, got a bill passed to compensate first responders for ailments they suffered from the toxic smoke of 9-11. NYC's fire dept. commemorated her for that.

The lady also got added compensation for Coal workers who lost their jobs. Many of the coal companies which went belly-up hadn't put aside sufficient funds for out-of-work miners.

What has The Divider done for anyone other than himself? He's forced thousands of workers to file 'mechanics liens' because the workers didn't get paid as promised - after they finished doing their jobs. Trump personally didn't pay dishwashers overtime, when one of his gala events went hours longer than planned. "Screw 'em. Let 'em sue me. I'll tie them up in court for years. They'll all go broke, ha ha ha ha ha. They're just low-end dishwashers. They're losers. ha ha ha ha."

As usual..you are wrong.

I am from upstate New York, and can tell you how people feel about lying, crooked Hillary.

[SABloke]

It will better for the nation for their efforts to fail.

The republican party CREATED this horrific fascist monster movement of DANGEROUS donald trump.

It needs to play out.

They need to nominate him and decent republicans need to work for HILLARY CLINTON.

Get this fascist poison out of their system with a landslide defeat.

If they did manage to block him, the trump movement would fester and grow and not be properly killed.

It's odd that you support her considering that she doesn't really care about LGBT rights (was against gay marriage until she needed the votes

[Jingthing]

It will better for the nation for their efforts to fail.

The republican party CREATED this horrific fascist monster movement of DANGEROUS donald trump.

It needs to play out.

They need to nominate him and decent republicans need to work for HILLARY CLINTON.

Get this fascist poison out of their system with a landslide defeat.

If they did manage to block him, the trump movement would fester and grow and not be properly killed.

It's odd that you support her considering that she doesn't really care about LGBT rights (was against gay marriage until she needed the votes

If you want to discuss the issues around such civil rights, please open a topic on the GAY forum.

It's off topic here.

[Guest]

I think USA is screwed. There are two horribly bad candidates left. One which is going to be elected as the president of the USA.

It's a lose-lose situation, whatever happens. I guess during of the next 4 years, people will miss the wisdom of Obama, nevertheless if they did like him or not.

Nobody is talking about the future of the country, people are just concentrating what the candidates did wrong in the past, no matter how insignificant those errors were.

Why are you not talking how to improve your country? Why are you not talking how to bring the forward looking community and the freedom, which we others would like to see and follow, back? Why are you not talking about the future?

Will the talk about the realistic future plans come in to the play before the 1-on-1 debates start? Are there any plans, which people are longing for to hear?

Sanders used to talk about those all the time. That's why he was so popular. The current candidates don't seem to have the ability to care about the people of their nation.

Why don't you demand the current candidates to talk about the real issues, what matters to you in the future?

Edited July 7, 2016 by Guest

[SABloke]

It will better for the nation for their efforts to fail.

The republican party CREATED this horrific fascist monster movement of DANGEROUS donald trump.

It needs to play out.

They need to nominate him and decent republicans need to work for HILLARY CLINTON.

Get this fascist poison out of their system with a landslide defeat.

If they did manage to block him, the trump movement would fester and grow and not be properly killed.

It's odd that you support her considering that she doesn't really care about LGBT rights (was against gay marriage until she needed the votes

If you want to discuss the issues around such civil rights, please open a topic on the GAY forum.

It's off topic here.

I don't want to discuss the issues so I'm not gonna start a whole topic. You're discussing Hillary on a Trump thread (you always do). I just made the observation that it's ironic that a gay person so vehemently supports a person that is against equal rights for gay people.

[Chicog]

Please don't dump the Trump. The more damage to the GOP the better it is for America - and the World.

Edited July 8, 2016 by Chicog

[keemapoot]

Please don't dump the Trump. The more damage to the GOP the better it is for America - and the World.

The dump trump effort has been highly unlikely for some time, and initially Ryan and others were resigned to accept him, but assumed he would play ball. But as the GOP leadership has learned, a buffoonish tiger cannot change his stripes, and they are more screwed than ever before.

There just might be a real try to derail him at the convention, but at this point still looks unlikely. As you say, the damage to the GOP is immeasurable and continuing.

[boomerangutang]

Donald Trump, "I'm really a good businessman. I'm so good at business." spoken by the man who is "....really good at words. I know a lot of words."