No major flood this year: Thai experts

[pookiki]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Sad for the people who are flooded but if you read the article you can see why the experts are saying its different. All those arm chair experts in Thaivisa don't bother reading the article.

 

Totally different situation and no YL who waited with releasing the water (to help her Baharn and his province) against the advice of the experts. So it made the flooding worse (would be flooding for sure but not as much as there was because of YL her mismanagement). This time the experts can make the decisions not the wallet of of PTP cronies. So its much safer. 

 

Plus like they said there is less rain and the dams are not full. 

You just won't give up on spreading this urban myth will you.  I sent you the link to the report before.

 

http://web.stanford.edu/~meehan/floodthai2011/FloodNotes17.pdf

 

Please refer to the section starting on page 8. The release of water from the two dams was based on guidelines adopted in 1997.  The amount of water released was equivalent to 1% of the total flow rate of the Chaophaya.  The 2011 floods were off the scale compared to previous events, so I doubt that this year will see a repeat  of those events. However, that doesn't mean much to those who have already lost their homes, farms, and  livelihoods.

[Jimbo1964]

Perhaps the experts should have looked out the window last night, sure looked like flooding in Bangkok to me. Or is that just minor flooding rather than major flooding.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Jimbo1964

[HoboKay]

2 minutes ago, Jimbo1964 said:

Perhaps the experts should have looked out the window last night, sure looked like flooding in Bangkok to me. Or is that just minor flooding rather than major flooding.

 

Some call it water pooling, ponding, "slow-to-recede" but never flooding. 

[CGW]

22 minutes ago, HoboKay said:

 

Some call it water pooling, ponding, "slow-to-recede" but never flooding. 

Maybe Bangkok is just sinking? thus the "ponding" effect should just be ignored!

[elgordo38]

6 hours ago, HoboKay said:

The "experts" meant Bangkok specifically or the country as a whole?

 

 

Yes you have your finger on the pulse of Thailand its called Bangkok. The beginning and the end of everything. Yes the word expert gets stretched mighty thin these days. They are about a dime a dozen. The last expert I knew was my financial adviser and I fired him. There should be different levels of expert the certified ones (like lunatics) and then the run of the mill ones. We always seem to listen to "experts" guess thats why the world is in such a mess. Oh well I have enjoyed the seven fat years the 7 lean years are just around the corner. The eating "high on the hog" days are over. 

[robblok]

1 hour ago, pookiki said:

You just won't give up on spreading this urban myth will you.  I sent you the link to the report before.

 

http://web.stanford.edu/~meehan/floodthai2011/FloodNotes17.pdf

 

Please refer to the section starting on page 8. The release of water from the two dams was based on guidelines adopted in 1997.  The amount of water released was equivalent to 1% of the total flow rate of the Chaophaya.  The 2011 floods were off the scale compared to previous events, so I doubt that this year will see a repeat  of those events. However, that doesn't mean much to those who have already lost their homes, farms, and  livelihoods.

Not a myth at all.. and I have given you the calculations and you never came back because you just could not beat facts. Its you who should stop spreading myths.

 

Fact is she released water 2 months later when the tides were high and drainage was impeded. I calculated the difference for you.

 

Logic is never your best point. 

 

2 months of extra water release made a huge difference. Now disprove my calculations in the other topic and we can talk again. 

 

 

So 1000 x 60 * 60 * 24 * 60 = 5.184.000.000  cubic meters extra drain. that is MORE then half of the active capacity of the Bhumibol Dam.. do you think that is a little bit and has no impact ? You can't beat science.  (and this is without causing floods now they are releasing close to 2000 cubic meters).

 

What you are saying a water size of more then half the bumibol dam would not cause extra problems. She made it worse.. period.. how much worse we can debate.. but fact is she made it worse. 

Edited October 3, 2016 by robblok

[pookiki]

6 minutes ago, robblok said:

Not a myth at all.. and I have given you the calculations and you never came back because you just could not beat facts. Its you who should stop spreading myths.

 

Fact is she released water 2 months later when the tides were high and drainage was impeded. I calculated the difference for you.

 

Logic is never your best point. 

 

2 months of extra water release made a huge difference. Now disprove my calculations in the other topic and we can talk again. 

You didn't even look at the report!  The releases were done in accordance with guidelines adopted in 1997.  If you want someone to blame, blame the Japanese who were instrumental in the adoption of the guidelines.  YL didn't make the decision, the release was predicated on the guideline.  Also, look at the length of the release.  The release wasn't for two months.  When will you get your facts straight?

[robblok]

Just now, pookiki said:

You didn't even look at the report!  The releases were done in accordance with guidelines adopted in 1997.  If you want someone to blame, blame the Japanese who were instrumental in the adoption of the guidelines.  YL didn't make the decision, the release was predicated on the guideline.  Also, look at the length of the release.  The release wasn't for two months.  When will you get your facts straight?

You did not even try to discredit the calculations i made.. because they are hard facts. 

Facts.. she delayed release to save rice for the program.

 

Fact in those 2 months a volume  of 5.184.000.000 CUBIC METERS could have been released without causing much extra flooding. 1000 is half of what they are now releasing.  

 

YL made the decisions for helping Baharn.. that is common knowledge. She was told before to release water but did not. Your reports are as good as those polls the PM has.. you can get a report to say what you want but you cant disprove calculations. 

[SunsetT]

8 hours ago, NongKhaiKid said:

As soon as I read, see or hear the word ' expert ' ... !

And  'Thai'   expert makes it an oxymoron.......lol

[SOTIRIOS]

...this is all about tourist dollars.....

 

...nothing else.....

 

...then again...what isn't around here......

 

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, Jimbo1964 said:

Perhaps the experts should have looked out the window last night, sure looked like flooding in Bangkok to me. Or is that just minor flooding rather than major flooding.

That was just your imagination playing tricks on you.

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, HoboKay said:

 

Some call it water pooling, ponding, "slow-to-recede" but never flooding. 

It's just backed-up water, nothing else and nothing to worry about.

[HoboKay]

2 hours ago, CGW said:

Maybe Bangkok is just sinking? thus the "ponding" effect should just be ignored!

 

Isn't Bangkok already "sunken", the last house I rented in Ekkamai had its "ground level" 1.5m below mean sea level. Terrible experience.

 

[waldroj]

While the heading reads "No major flood this year: experts", many posters seem to question this prediction, and see the use of the word "experts" in this context as a misnomer.

 

Despite the very obvious flooding currently occuring in much of central and northern Thailand, my forty-three years as a climate scientist makes me confident the "experts" are indeed correct (with regards to "major" flooding).

 

While there is no denying that perennial trouble spots are experiencing severe flooding yet again, unlike 2011 this floodwater should recede quickly once the current monsoon activity eases and moves further south.

 

For me, the more ominous warning in this article, given by the director of the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute, is far more concerning, "...in fact hydrologists are warning that water might even be in short supply during the next dry season..."!

 

While the current flooding may cause some short-term disruption, drought and water shortages are far more insidious curses for Thailand. Their effects last far, far longer, and do much more damage to the country's economy.

 

So, this is the prediction that I hope the experts got wrong, however the following links suggest that Royon's observation may indeed prove prophetic:

• https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels
• http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

 

By the way, Thai meteorological and climate scientists don't work in isolation, they collaborate closely with a community of other weather and climate "experts" around the world in developing short-, medium, and long-term forecasts and predictions!

[wvavin]

No flood this year...ummmm....after studying the stars, sun positions, a lot of chantings, talismans mounted at all border check points. Mates! we are very save now....LOL.....

[smutcakes]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

You did not even try to discredit the calculations i made.. because they are hard facts. 

Facts.. she delayed release to save rice for the program.

 

Fact in those 2 months a volume  of 5.184.000.000 CUBIC METERS could have been released without causing much extra flooding. 1000 is half of what they are now releasing.  

 

YL made the decisions for helping Baharn.. that is common knowledge. She was told before to release water but did not. Your reports are as good as those polls the PM has.. you can get a report to say what you want but you cant disprove calculations. 

 

Rob just because you repeat someones opinion ad nauseam does not make it common knowledge. It makes it a rumour. The fact is you have zero, absolutely zero proof that YS did anything to assist or help Bahran, it just suits your narrative to say it.

 

And you having the audacity to call other people armchair experts.

[HoboKay]

27 minutes ago, waldroj said:

While the heading reads "No major flood this year: experts", many posters seem to question this prediction, and see the use of the word "experts" in this context as a misnomer.

 

Despite the very obvious flooding currently occuring in much of central and northern Thailand, my forty-three years as a climate scientist makes me confident the "experts" are indeed correct (with regards to "major" flooding).

 

While there is no denying that perennial trouble spots are experiencing severe flooding yet again, unlike 2011 this floodwater should recede quickly once the current monsoon activity eases and moves further south.

 

For me, the more ominous warning in this article, given by the director of the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute, is far more concerning, "...in fact hydrologists are warning that water might even be in short supply during the next dry season..."!

 

While the current flooding may cause some short-term disruption, drought and water shortages are far more insidious curses for Thailand. Their effects last far, far longer, and do much more damage to the country's economy.

 

So, this is the prediction that I hope the experts got wrong, however the following links suggest that Royon's observation may indeed prove prophetic:

• https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2016-enso-update-cooling-our-heels
• http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

 

By the way, Thai meteorological and climate scientists don't work in isolation, they collaborate closely with a community of other weather and climate "experts" around the world in developing short-, medium, and long-term forecasts and predictions!

 

Thank you for sharing the links, always been keen on climatology but making ends meet was an immediate hurdle, now retired I can be better learned.

 

The impending droughts is indeed the more foreboding of issues, but with this being cyclical (at least to the layman), mitigation efforts can be implemented but seems lacking, is this due to mismanagement or did the climate changed too rapidly for mitigation solutions to be put into place (dams and infrastructure take time)?

 

Edited October 3, 2016 by HoboKay

[trainman34014]

Thailand......'Hub of Oxymorons'  !

[robblok]

22 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

 

Rob just because you repeat someones opinion ad nauseam does not make it common knowledge. It makes it a rumour. The fact is you have zero, absolutely zero proof that YS did anything to assist or help Bahran, it just suits your narrative to say it.

 

And you having the audacity to call other people armchair experts.

 

Even in pookiki his document they accept this as fact. So its not rumor. And in his document they are actually supporting YL reads like it was made to clear her. But they do accept that they delayed the water for rice harvest. 

Edited October 3, 2016 by robblok

[CGW]

1 hour ago, HoboKay said:

 

Isn't Bangkok already "sunken", the last house I rented in Ekkamai had its "ground level" 1.5m below mean sea level. Terrible experience.

 

Its common knowledge that Bangkok is "sinking" that was my point - But lets just ignore that fact, obviously has nothing to do with flooding!     

[wow64]

you see its not a major flood until the entire country is flooded by more then 1m of water. 

 

Until then everything else is minor and the previous governments fault due to ill planning. 

[HoboKay]

7 minutes ago, CGW said:

Its common knowledge that Bangkok is "sinking" that was my point - But lets just ignore that fact, obviously has nothing to do with flooding!     

 

Being below sea level is not unique to Bangkok, poor water management is often the culprit but with proper infrastructure it can be mitigated. The Netherlands comes to mind.

[CGW]

4 minutes ago, HoboKay said:

 

Being below sea level is not unique to Bangkok, poor water management is often the culprit but with proper infrastructure it can be mitigated. The Netherlands comes to mind.

Agreed, the difference between the Netherlands and Thailand though is huge! - they recognise they have a problem and take effective action!

Edited October 3, 2016 by CGW

[JAG]

12 hours ago, NongKhaiKid said:

As soon as I read, see or hear the word ' expert ' ... !

Many years ago, in a distant universe, I remember hearing "expert" defined as "ex is a has been, and a spurt is what happens when you put a drip under pressure"....

Edited October 3, 2016 by JAG

[HoboKay]

3 minutes ago, CGW said:

Agreed, the difference between the Netherlands and Thailand though is huge! - they recognise they have a problem and take effective action!

 

I guess if, some of the ex-governments that this country recycles, can stay in power long enough with some luck, decency and urgency, the situation might have been different.

[pookiki]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

You did not even try to discredit the calculations i made.. because they are hard facts. 

Facts.. she delayed release to save rice for the program.

 

Fact in those 2 months a volume  of 5.184.000.000 CUBIC METERS could have been released without causing much extra flooding. 1000 is half of what they are now releasing.  

 

YL made the decisions for helping Baharn.. that is common knowledge. She was told before to release water but did not. Your reports are as good as those polls the PM has.. you can get a report to say what you want but you cant disprove calculations. 

Could have, would have, should have.  Did you read the report?  When you do, let me know.  YL didn't establish the guidelines for the release of dam water.  They were in existence in 1997. 

[madpat]

On the same page if you scroll down is this headline,,,,,,

 

Security step-up for flood-affected villagers taking refuge on roadsides in Ayutthaya

 

 

Same experts saying tourism flourishing, except most Chinese wont be back like us Farangs

 

[robblok]

7 minutes ago, pookiki said:

Could have, would have, should have.  Did you read the report?  When you do, let me know.  YL didn't establish the guidelines for the release of dam water.  They were in existence in 1997. 

 

I read the report it stated that they delayed for the rice harvest and it even said one minister knew about storms coming.. the the report called it a calculated risk .. I stopped believing the report there.  It was clearly written to exonerate her. So i stick with my own calculations showing that in two months a lot of water could have been drained. So she made it worse.. and I stick with it. 

[Gracas]

Just how high does the water need to be before it is considered a flood ?

[HenryB]

8 hours ago, starky said:

Of course there can be no flooding we have our new fearless leader. Everybody knows the previous floods where YL's fault they told us so.  In fact if you look hard enough just about everything including the amount of rainfall or lack of it can be linked back to the Shinawatras.

Maybe it is my Cousins the Rothchilds