Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

[AlexRich]

If Brexit is a positive then that would be reflected in the value of the currency ... and GBP has been tanking since the vote, and indication that participants in the financial markets believe that the UK economy will be relatively worse off as a consequence of the vote.  

[OJAS]

4 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Grouse I don't consider the EU countries our enemies either just the European Union, as the greatest enemy to every country from Europe in the European Union. You will find that many other European countries feel the same. Germany, France, Italy and Holland to name a few. They don't want their identity taken away and rightly so. But the EU is 'hell bent' on ensuring that we all do the same, the same way and do as they say. Very much like a dictatorship. Its for this reason it will never work.

 

 

Agree 100%. The bureaucratic monster that is the EU bears little resemblance to the EEC which the UK joined in 1973 and for which I voted Remain in the 1975 referendum. If the EU is to have any chance of survival over the coming years it needs IMHO to revert to the original EEC model. But that would, of course, mean Tusk and Juncker being willing to give up their fiefdom, which seems highly unlikely in practice.

Edited October 19, 2016 by OJAS

[jpinx]

The rates of GBP exchange are no indication of the performance of the UK, they are merely a reflection of the traders jitters to the politics and corporate reports landing on their desks minute-by-minute.  Masked by the US election uncertainties, the EU's banking and finance crisis, the Chinese wobbles, etc, FX rates are no more useful than a Ouija Board in determining what's going on because of Brexit. 

[AlexRich]

10 minutes ago, jpinx said:

The rates of GBP exchange are no indication of the performance of the UK, they are merely a reflection of the traders jitters to the politics and corporate reports landing on their desks minute-by-minute.  Masked by the US election uncertainties, the EU's banking and finance crisis, the Chinese wobbles, etc, FX rates are no more useful than a Ouija Board in determining what's going on because of Brexit. 

 

There is no connection between the Brexit vote (and the aftermath), and the current level of GBP? 

 

That implies that GBP would be at this current level today if there had been no referendum? You cannot be serious!  

[jpinx]

15 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

There is no connection between the Brexit vote (and the aftermath), and the current level of GBP? 

 

That implies that GBP would be at this current level today if there had been no referendum? You cannot be serious!  

As I said ... "The rates of GBP exchange are no indication of the performance of the UK...."   Brexit has been just another event amongst many, but it has not changed the physical output of the workforce in UK.   With so much meddling with currencies by many national central banks it's reall not a good indicator of anything - other than how much your exported pension is worth abroad.  The heading is "... lowest level since 1985."  but it is hard to discuss such an ambiguous topic since we have no idea what the OP was comparing Sterling with -- US$?  Gold? Roubles?  Oil prices?

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, jpinx said:

As I said ... "The rates of GBP exchange are no indication of the performance of the UK...."   Brexit has been just another event amongst many, but it has not changed the physical output of the workforce in UK.   With so much meddling with currencies by many national central banks it's reall not a good indicator of anything - other than how much your exported pension is worth abroad.  The heading is "... lowest level since 1985."  but it is hard to discuss such an ambiguous topic since we have no idea what the OP was comparing Sterling with -- US$?  Gold? Roubles?  Oil prices?

 

1. not a good indicator of anything - other than how much your exported pension is worth abroad.  Well fancy that!

2. the performance of the UK......the physical output of the workforce in UK. FYI, GDP is a measurement of goods and services.

[SheungWan]

4 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

There is no connection between the Brexit vote (and the aftermath), and the current level of GBP? 

 

That implies that GBP would be at this current level today if there had been no referendum? You cannot be serious!  

 

So now we have 3 Brexiteer explanations of the post-referendum fall in sterling:

1. it is temporary and sterling will bounce back.

2. it is a good thing and

3. it is nothing to do with the referendum.

You might think that 3. is the most ludicrous, but I think each one in its own way has distinct nutty charms to explain the situation away.

Edited October 19, 2016 by SheungWan

[Loeilad]

"I have only questioned one poster's motives in all of these discussions, and that's partly because he's German" - is this the best argument a Brexiteer can put forward?

[Loeilad]

There have been some who laud the low pound as "being good for exports" - well before you get carried away with that one, be aware that "exports" comprise only about 10% of the economy (about the same as tourism in Thailand) and even then it is not such a simple equation. Importation of raw materials has become more costly so the actual "pound bonus" is not as big as the drop  and in the future it is also likely that these "cheap" exports will face duties from countries that exporters hope will be customers.

 

Meanwhile in the domestic market, the cost of food clothes and living in general will rise for those at home as the buying power internationally of the pound reduces.

 

so lets hear it for biscuits and jam! - Brexit: UK government's plan to export 'tea, jam and biscuits' ridiculed online.

 

remember for any real improvement, an increase in exports needs to be ON TOP OF anything we already export.

Edited October 20, 2016 by Loeilad

[sandyf]

21 hours ago, Ace of Pop said:

Consolation. ?. How Old are You. Its a contingency that us Coffin Dodgers have built in to our Financial Planning as we were not born into the Entitlement Generation. Yes it makes a difference but insignificant if one planned ones own affairs and not left it to your Governments Pension Fund Dummies. Jeeez my Portuguese pension wouldn't buy a Starbucks Nescafe and Bun for 4 People.

This continual uninformed criticism of peoples financial arrangements is nothing short of childish. It is a pity that not everyone was blessed with your crystal balls and the luxury of a large retirement pot.

 

Do you really think that I should be happy seeing my holiday arrangements being trimmed back in favour of the greater good, that is old age kicking in.

[chiang mai]

For those following the GBP/THB picture: I find UOB Thailand to be really on the (markets) ball when it comes to forex, I glance at the rate most days on the daytodaydata site and UOB is consistently correct in it's outlook on the pair. That having been said, UOB and SCB are estimating 42.34 and 42.38 respectively this morning, all of which tells me it's going to be another seriously downwards day.

[sandyf]

19 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

My understanding is that we remain 100% in the EU until the 2 year period has ellapsed. Because parliament gets to agree the final settlement, it has leverage to ensure an equitable outcome. The fear was that the Con government would hijack the referendum result for their own partisan benefits.

Not quite. Although still a fully paid up member, the UK will not be allowed to participate in any discussion or vote that relates to the EU situation following the UK exit. The criteria is so vague they could effectively be excluded from everything once Art 50 is invoked.

[Laughing Gravy]

11 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Not quite. Although still a fully paid up member, the UK will not be allowed to participate in any discussion or vote that relates to the EU situation following the UK exit. The criteria is so vague they could effectively be excluded from everything once Art 50 is invoked.

You are right but they will still want our financial contributions. Another reason to leave and an example of how the EU tries its best to keep you in their 'club' and punish you for trying to leave or leave. I hope other EU countries who are intending to leave the corrupt bureaucratic farce, are watching.

 

For those who are saying Theresa May and her government are rubbish and not good enough should read this from todays paper.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-poll-lead-widens-as-labour-and-ukip-support-slumps-0bffsg8v8

 

PS. I have never been a Tory but If there was a general election I am afraid I would probably vote for them at the moment.

[sandyf]

12 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

For those following the GBP/THB picture: I find UOB Thailand to be really on the (markets) ball when it comes to forex, I glance at the rate most days on the daytodaydata site and UOB is consistently correct in it's outlook on the pair. That having been said, UOB and SCB are estimating 42.34 and 42.38 respectively this morning, all of which tells me it's going to be another seriously downwards day.

The dollar has been fairly stable last couple but the baht has gained a bit, forex currently showing at 42.89.

In the last few days yuan has dropped from 5.32 to 5.17, probably of little interest to many but a bit of a bonus from the stronger baht, university fees are paid in yuan.

[Ace of Pop]

This continual uninformed criticism of peoples financial arrangements is nothing short of childish. It is a pity that not everyone was blessed with your crystal balls and the luxury of a large retirement pot.
 
Do you really think that I should be happy seeing my holiday arrangements being trimmed back in favour of the greater good, that is old age kicking in.

Another Cradle to Grave poster.Live within your means,ido


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[sandyf]

Reality Check: Must UK settle EU divorce before it makes trade deals?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37703670

[SgtRock]

5 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Reality Check: Must UK settle EU divorce before it makes trade deals?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37703670

 

From your link

 

Quote

The claim: Elmar Brok, who chairs the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, says the UK will have to negotiate its divorce agreement before its future relationship.

Reality Check verdict: We will not know for sure until after Article 50 has been triggered, but a number of senior European politicians support this two-stage process.

 

A claim by a Gravy Train member.

 

How surprising that it would have a negative spin.

 

In reality the divorce procedure can be fairly simple. A 50 invoked and the UK leaves in exactly 2 years time. Now let us start negotiating about the period that follows those 2 years.

 

Regardless of what garbage is being spewed out in public for the benefit of both camps. Negotiations, behind closed doors, will be ongoing, regarding leaving the EU and whatever future deal that they thrash out between them.

[Laughing Gravy]

Whatever is happening to the pound the economy in the UK is getting stronger and stronger. so I shouldn't be running to the hills just yet and building a bunker.

 

"More than 100,000 people found jobs between May and August as businesses shrugged off Brexit fears and continued hiring in the two months after the European Union referendum.

Employment remained at a record high of 31.8 million, the unemployment rate was at an 11-year low of 4.9 per cent and wage growth was steady at 2.3 per cent in a surprisingly resilient jobs market for the three months to August."

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/employment-at-record-high-but-economists-warn-of-pay-squeeze-lfx99m2qt

[RuamRudy]

51 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

unemployment rate was at an 11-year low

 

Have we put the barricades up so soon? I thought that immigration into the uk was preventing Brits from finding work?

[Laughing Gravy]

5 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Have we put the barricades up so soon? I thought that immigration into the uk was preventing Brits from finding work?

Just quoting the Times Old bean.

 

But there are friends of mine, especially in the building trade who say that immigration has affected them as companies employ cheaper labour, pricing them out.

Edited October 20, 2016 by Laughing Gravy
Fully answer the question.

[SgtRock]

For the head in the sand Brigade.

 

Deutsche Bank has just made another statement of Denial

 

Quote

Deutsche Bank has moved to suppress speculation that the beleaguered European firm may seek to wind-down its investment banking operations in the U.S., with one prominent figure at the bank telling CNBC that it was positioned for a long future in the country.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/deutsche-bank-moves-to-quash-rumors-its-quitting-wall-street.html

 

Some people would do well to acquaint themselves with the dire straits that DB is actually in.

 

Quote

Deutsche also faces the consequences of a history of weak controls. It is facing 7,000 separate lawsuits and regulatory actions. At the front of investors’ minds are a US inquiry into the mis-selling of mortgage-backed securities, and a joint US-UK probe into $10bn of potentially suspicious trades involving Deutsche’s Russian business.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a8c18db2-5400-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

 

7000 separate lawsuits and regulatory actions. Not bad going for a banking system that is losing Billions annually.

 

Time is not on the side of the EU / EZ or euro. If I were May I would be putting off triggering A50 until the end of 2017.

 

Sit tight and watch what happens in 2017.

 

For anyone who may be in any doubt that Hollande will be given the boot in 2017.

 

Have a read of this. It is brilliant.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37702917

 

Sing it one more time Dylan.

 

 

[chiang mai]

Thank goodness for that, the first Deutsche Bank post of the day, I was getting worried.

[RuamRudy]

58 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Just quoting the Times Old bean.

 

But there are friends of mine, especially in the building trade who say that immigration has affected them as companies employ cheaper labour, pricing them out.

 

No problem - I am just trying to navigate the myriad themes raised pre and post referendum.

 

But the contradictions are what are confusing me - salaries are rising, and unemployment is falling, unlike the narrative that was being pumped to us continuously by the Pro Brexit side. Was that argument, like their NHS claims, simply lies to win over a gullible public?

[SgtRock]

21 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

No problem - I am just trying to navigate the myriad themes raised pre and post referendum.

 

But the contradictions are what are confusing me - salaries are rising, and unemployment is falling, unlike the narrative that was being pumped to us continuously by the Pro Brexit side. Was that argument, like their NHS claims, simply lies to win over a gullible public?

 

Congrats RR

 

You are beginning to wake up and smell the coffee.

 

I would ask you to read my post at 1511. It will tell you all you need to know about the great fall in unemployment.

[Laughing Gravy]

17 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

No problem - I am just trying to navigate the myriad themes raised pre and post referendum.

 

But the contradictions are what are confusing me - salaries are rising, and unemployment is falling, unlike the narrative that was being pumped to us continuously by the Pro Brexit side. Was that argument, like their NHS claims, simply lies to win over a gullible public?

I think anyone who follows politics that politicians often fabricate the truth. Both sides did in the referendum and George Osborne was just as bad for the remain. We have different opinions on the EU and pound which is clear but I don't believe the people are gullible. This is a major factor that the remain campaign did not take into consideration. The mainstream media (BBC, Sky) were very biased towards the remain as were major corporations.  There is lots of evidence for this. They all forgot one major thing, people are not stupid or gullible and they see things for themselves, if not we would have an overwhelming remain win, which we didn't.

[SgtRock]

10 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I think anyone who follows politics that politicians often fabricate the truth. Both sides did in the referendum and George Osborne was just as bad for the remain. We have different opinions on the EU and pound which is clear but I don't believe the people are gullible. This is a major factor that the remain campaign did not take into consideration. The mainstream media (BBC, Sky) were very biased towards the remain as were major corporations.  There is lots of evidence for this. They all forgot one major thing, people are not stupid or gullible and they see things for themselves, if not we would have an overwhelming remain win, which we didn't.

 

                                                '' You can fool some of the people all of the time ''

 

                                                '' You can fool all of the people some of the time ''

 

                                           '' But you can NEVER fool all of the people all of the time ''

[Grouse]

40 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I think anyone who follows politics that politicians often fabricate the truth. Both sides did in the referendum and George Osborne was just as bad for the remain. We have different opinions on the EU and pound which is clear but I don't believe the people are gullible. This is a major factor that the remain campaign did not take into consideration. The mainstream media (BBC, Sky) were very biased towards the remain as were major corporations.  There is lots of evidence for this. They all forgot one major thing, people are not stupid or gullible and they see things for themselves, if not we would have an overwhelming remain win, which we didn't.

 

The BBC went to great lengths to show balance. Problem is they couldn't stop sniggering when they had to explain the leaver's case.

 

Also they couldn't do much about the appearance or speech of UKIP types in live audiences. One just knew they were numpties immediately ?

[Grouse]

Good to see Sterling firming up after May came to her senses and after the confirmation that the BoE would retain its independence. It's particularly good because the Fed WILL most likely increase interest rates in December and Trump is finished ?

[Laughing Gravy]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

 

The BBC went to great lengths to show balance. Problem is they couldn't stop sniggering when they had to explain the leaver's case.

 

Also they couldn't do much about the appearance or speech of UKIP types in live audiences. One just knew they were numpties immediately ?

Now that is absolutely hilarious Grouse. You should do stand up. Have you not had your breakfast yet.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11941330/BBC-accused-of-dishonesty-and-bias-over-EU-referendum-coverage.html

 

http://www.media247.co.uk/bizasia/bbc-accused-of-biased-eu-referendum-coverage-2016

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/677025/BBC-in-referendum-BIAS-row-over-Brexit-report (know you love the Express)

 

There are many more links and even numpties can find them.

[dick dasterdly]

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Whatever is happening to the pound the economy in the UK is getting stronger and stronger. so I shouldn't be running to the hills just yet and building a bunker.

 

"More than 100,000 people found jobs between May and August as businesses shrugged off Brexit fears and continued hiring in the two months after the European Union referendum.

Employment remained at a record high of 31.8 million, the unemployment rate was at an 11-year low of 4.9 per cent and wage growth was steady at 2.3 per cent in a surprisingly resilient jobs market for the three months to August."

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/employment-at-record-high-but-economists-warn-of-pay-squeeze-lfx99m2qt

Somebody else posted something along the same lines - unemployment figures falling.

 

The trouble is that:-

1) we don't know how many of these are part-time jobs

2) how many of the 'newly' employed have British passports and

3) unemployment figures have been manipulated for decades (?) to show reduced unemployed statistics.

 

I'm suprised that wages have grown by 2.3% though, but as I'm a cynical bastard - would like to know how this statistic has been calculated.