GOP strategists: Clinton is in good shape with 3 weeks left

[webfact]

GOP strategists: Clinton is in good shape with 3 weeks left

By THOMAS BEAUMONT

 

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — With roughly three weeks to Election Day, Republican strategists nationwide publicly concede Hillary Clinton has a firm grip on the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House — and may be on her way to an even more decisive victory over Donald Trump.

 

"He is on track to totally and completely melting down," said Republican pollster Whit Ayers, who is advising Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's re-election campaign. Like many Republican strategists, he was willing to speak publicly about the GOP nominee's rough road ahead at the end of an unprecedented campaign.

 

Things can change before Election Day. There is one more presidential debate, and Trump has rallied before. His core supporters remain strongly committed.

 

But along with indicators such as polling, campaign travel, staffing and advertising, the interviews with Republican political professionals unaffiliated with the Trump campaign suggest only an epic collapse by Clinton would keep her from winning enough states to become president.

 

In the past week, Trump's campaign has been hit by allegations the New York billionaire sexually accosted several women over the past three decades. Early voting in pivotal North Carolina and Florida shows positive signs for Clinton, and donations to the Republican National Committee are down about a quarter over the past three months from the same period in 2012, when Mitt Romney was the nominee.

 

Preference polling in the past week, meanwhile, has generally moved in Clinton's direction, with the Democrat improving in national surveys and in a number of contested states.

 

If the election were held today, Clinton would likely carry the entire West Coast and Northeast, as well as most of the Great Lakes region — a place Trump once identified as ripe territory for his populist message against free trade.

 

Only Ohio is a toss-up in that part of the country, but the perennial battleground may not play a decisive role come Election Day this year due to Clinton's strength — and Trump's weaknesses — elsewhere.

 

Trump and running mate Mike Pence have made a hard play for Pennsylvania, a state carried by the Democratic nominee in the past six elections. But their strategy to hold down Clinton in Philadelphia and its suburbs while running up Trump's vote total in more conservative parts of the state has failed to materialize.

 

"He's getting his brains beat in by women in the Philly suburbs," said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who is surveying presidential battlegrounds and several states with races for U.S. Senate.

 

Trump was already struggling to attract support from women before his first debate with Clinton in late September. It was at that event in New York where Clinton stung Trump by reviving his past shaming of a former Miss Universe for gaining weight.

 

Trump's response, calling the contestant's weight gain "a real problem" in a TV interview the next day, was quickly eclipsed by the publication of a video from 2005 on which the Republican bragged about using his fame to prey on women.

 

An apology followed, but Trump also insisted his comments were nothing more than "locker room talk." He denied at the candidates' second debate that he ever acted in the ways he discussed in the 2005 video.

 

Within days, several women had come forward to accuse Trump of unwanted sexual advances and sexual assault. He responded by calling his accusers liars and, on Friday, suggested they were in some instances not physically attractive enough to merit his attention.

 

"His entire tack could not be better designed to drive away college-educated women," said Ayers, the GOP pollster.

 

Educated women living in suburbs have long been a key part of the GOP coalition, but polls indicate the revelations about Trump's behavior have pushed them toward Clinton in the battleground states of Colorado and Virginia.

 

The events have also foiled Trump's late-in-the-campaign plan to re-ignite his hope of carrying Wisconsin. Trump and Pence were to campaign with House Speaker Paul Ryan in his home state a day after the 2005 video was made public. Ryan withdrew his invitation to Trump, and Pence later cancelled.

 

Trump can still count on carrying states across the West, the Great Plains and in the South, but Ayers and other Republicans predict he may ultimately end up with fewer than 200 Electoral College votes.

 

Should the Republican fall short in Pennsylvania, he would need to post victories in both Florida and Ohio, as well as several other battlegrounds — North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire among them — to reach 270.

 

But that's only if he prevails in reliably Republican Arizona, Georgia and Utah.

 

In Utah, Trump's deep unpopularity among the large population of Mormon voters could lead to four candidates winning 10 percent or more of the state's vote. That kind of uncertainty opens the door to a win there for Clinton or for third-party candidates Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson.

 

In Arizona, won by the Republican nominee in all but one election since 1952, Trump's characterization of some Hispanic immigrants as criminals has turned off many in the state's growing and Democratic-leaning Hispanic community.

 

GOP nominees have carried Georgia in seven of the last eight presidential elections. But about a quarter of the state's voters are African American, a reliably Democratic-voting bloc. Like Virginia, Georgia is also home to well-educated young professionals more likely to favor Clinton, said Chris Jankowski, a Virginia-based national GOP consultant.

 

"With Trump bleeding out, he could find himself competing to win the white vote in Georgia," Jankowski said. "That's when you know it's over."

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Follow Thomas Beaumont on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/tombeaumont

___

Chart the path Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton must take on the Road to 270 to reach the White House with AP's Electoral College interactive map:http://elections.ap.org/content/road-270-0

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-10-17

[Silurian]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Early voting in pivotal North Carolina and Florida shows positive signs for Clinton, and donations to the Republican National Committee are down about a quarter over the past three months from the same period in 2012, when Mitt Romney was the nominee.

 

Ouch, ouch, ouch! When the money dries up, so does the campaign. It is over Donald. Best to hope for is to save some face in the debate (if you show up) and plan for that media company you and Roger will debut after the election.

[Pinot]

Yeah, just keep doing what you're doing Trump, bringing the GOP down with you. '

 

The Republicans had the distinction of having the worst President in history, now can add the worst candidate for POTUS in history to their impressive tally. 

[Srikcir]

Recently announced:

Founder of Media Matters for America David Brock is offering to pay the threatened $5 million fine that could be levied if the 14,000 hours of unaired 'Apprentice' tapes are released.

http://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/5-million-on-table-for-apprentice-tapes-787042371537

If Trump doesn't win the Presidency, he stands to lose substantial value in his commercial brand "TRUMP."

[alfalfa19]

It's great entertainment watching him self destruct.  Better than the circus, and free to boot. 

[Silurian]

3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Recently announced:

Founder of Media Matters for America David Brock is offering to pay the threatened $5 million fine that could be levied if the 14,000 hours of unaired 'Apprentice' tapes are released.

http://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/5-million-on-table-for-apprentice-tapes-787042371537

If Trump doesn't win the Presidency, he stands to lose substantial value in his commercial brand "TRUMP."

 

Don't worry. Isn't this what Wikileaks is for? To bring to light this kind of thing? I have all the faith that Julian and his team are on top of it as we speak. (Not).

[Srikcir]

17 minutes ago, Silurian said:

 

Don't worry. Isn't this what Wikileaks is for? To bring to light this kind of thing? I have all the faith that Julian and his team are on top of it as we speak. (Not).

Brock specified that payment for any documented information regarding Turmp's creditability must have been obtained legally. That would disqualify Wikileaks. In fact Trump himself could relieve the producers and studio managers associated with the Apprentice that he will not sue them for releasing the tapes. That would serve transparency of his defense. 

[Dagnabbit]

Clinton is just 4 points ahead, despite the 'meltdown' that Trump is supposedly having.

 

This is still very much an open race.

[elgordo38]

2 hours ago, Silurian said:

 

Ouch, ouch, ouch! When the money dries up, so does the campaign. It is over Donald. Best to hope for is to save some face in the debate (if you show up) and plan for that media company you and Roger will debut after the election.

Toronto wants to put you on trial Donald. Seems your name on the building does carry some consequences. Over promising and under delivering. After you loose the election what will you do for an encore find another Barbie to play house with. You will no doubt go back to cheating others for services rendered. Look out Melania. 

[ilostmypassword]

33 minutes ago, Dagnabbit said:

Clinton is just 4 points ahead, despite the 'meltdown' that Trump is supposedly having.

 

This is still very much an open race.

Nice piece of cherry picking. What you are referring to is the ABC Washington Post Poll.  The NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll released the same day gives Clinton an 11 point lead.  And fivethirtyeight, which has a pretty good record in analyzing the aggregate of polls gives Clinton an 6 or 7 point lead.

[55Jay]

3 hours ago, Silurian said:

 

Ouch, ouch, ouch! When the money dries up, so does the campaign. It is over Donald. Best to hope for is to save some face in the debate (if you show up) and plan for that media company you and Roger will debut after the election.

Speaking of money, Trump is out on Facebook stumping for bucks.  

 

Interesting Clinton/Trump comparison snap shot from the FEC site.  Shocked by the Clinton campaign debt at the bottom of the page.  Is that real? 

http://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/PCandCompare.do

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2016 by 55Jay

[Jingthing]

Should Hillary just not go to the third debate?

She's massively ahead.

Why risk anything now?

Many rational politicians in her position, especially facing a sexually abusive nutcase, wouldn't show.

I think she will show but not sure she should. 

[Chicog]

2 hours ago, Dagnabbit said:

Clinton is just 4 points ahead, despite the 'meltdown' that Trump is supposedly having.

 

This is still very much an open race.

 

5.5 if you want the RCP average. But if you just stick to the LA Times poll you could really delude yourself.

[Chicog]

I'm sure there are a few more victims of his sexual assault to come forward yet...

 

 

[Publicus]

 

Every candidate for Potus would want such headaches....

 

 

“Hillary Clinton faces a striking choice in the final three weeks of the campaign: to expand her efforts to states that Democrats haven’t won in a generation, or to stay a current course that, if conditions hold, would deliver her a resounding electoral college victory,” the Washington Post reports.

 

“After two tumultuous weeks focused on Donald Trump’s behavior toward women, Clinton is ahead in nearly all of the key battleground states where her campaign has directed the most resources, acording to many recent polls. But some once-solidly Republican states — notably Arizona, Georgia and Utah — now also appear to be in play.”

 

 

Go for it.

 

There's lots of precedent. 

 

In 1992 GA voted for Bill and Hillary (went R in 1996 to now).

 

In 1996 AZ voted for Bill and Hillary, first time voting D for Potus since Harry Truman in 1948.

 

VA broke its 40 year red streak for Potus by voting OB in 2008...did it again in 2012 and HRC has a big lead in this election cycle. Trump campaign last week pulled out of VA but everyone laughed cause both of 'em left on the same motorbike. 

 

NC broke its long red run by voting OB in 2008. NC reverted to Romney in 2012 but HRC has been consistently ahead by 2-3 points average. The D for Senate has begun running ahead of the R incumbent in a development no one foresaw.

 

UT would be a one-off thingy but why not go for it there too.

 

In politics and elections a pile-on is perfectly legit. Under the right circumstances it's much worth the thrust. (Nixon and Reagan each won 49 states.)

 

PA had been a solid red state until 1992 when it turned blue forever. Same during the 1990s in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Iowa, Colorado, California, Oregon, Washington state. They're all solidly blue now and have been.

 

Electoral College map always has a mass of red, however, several of the red states have 3 Electoral votes, while the rest of 'em (except TX with 38 ECVs) have 8 ECVs or 11 ECVs. I mean, for all the red that is eternally on the ECV map, Republicans keep losing. They don't have the ECVs. Period.

 

And they're still losing more each time.  

 

So take no prisoners in this rich Potus opportunity -- Hammer Trump and everything he bellows about, for, against. Rout him.

Edited October 17, 2016 by Publicus

[JetsetBkk]

5 hours ago, alfalfa19 said:

It's great entertainment watching him self destruct.  Better than the circus, and free to boot. 

 

It's even better entertainment watching the US self destruct.

 

Sad, but funny at the same time.

 

[Publicus]

10 minutes ago, JetsetBkk said:

 

It's even better entertainment watching the US self destruct.

 

Sad, but funny at the same time.

 

 

Fear not, the situation in USA is hopeless but not serious.

 

 

[JLCrab]

To simplify an above analysis, in USA it is really 51 separate elections and the national average is misleading: If one has big leads in the smaller electoral vote states and losing the bigger electoral states by a small margin, one can have a near even national average and still lose the election in an electoral vote landslide.

[Publicus]

2 hours ago, JLCrab said:

To simplify an above analysis, in USA it is really 51 separate elections and the national average is misleading: If one has big leads in the smaller electoral vote states and losing the bigger electoral states by a small margin, one can have a near even national average and still lose the election in an electoral vote landslide.

 

Anyone interested can take a cursory look. 

 

So many red states have so few Electoral College Votes. Red states have a lot of land territory. The red states are said to form an L down the Rocky Mountains down to across Dixie in the South, the Old Confederacy.

 

 

Look at the blue states and their Electoral College Vote. Less in geography generally, in the Northeast especially down the seaboard to Virginia, but rich in ECVs. Included in the NE are New York state and Pennsylvania. 

 

States such as FL, VA, OH, have joined other blue states in voting for OB twice and in giving HRC their consistent point margin in almost all of the most recent polling.

 

Trump will win a dozen states each of which has piddling ECVs, plus a few in the lower-middle ECV range such as Tennessee (possibly retain GA red) and TX which is the single biggest prize the Republican for Potus can get. After than forget it.

 

Trump doesn't get 200 ECVs. He's running behind Romney in everything.

 

 

NB: While some ECVs in some states have changed by + or - 1 or perhaps two ECVs, the nature of the map remains intact, as does its integrity of ECVs in respect of the 2016 election of the Potus.

[Publicus]

 

There's state polling in the states and there's national polling of the entire electorate. The two seldom match up.

 

Sometimes the state polling is leading, i.e., reflecting a changing electorate. In such a case, the national polling showing the same same can be lagging. Then in the next round the national polling catches up to the polls in the various key states.

 

Or vice-versa.

 

Sometimes the state polling is behind the national polling. Then after the next round of state polls, the states begin to reflect the national poll findings.

 

Other times the state polls and the national polls are in sync.

 

When both sets of polls are in sync, as they are presently, you'd rather be HRC than to be Donald Trump cause they're all pointing to HRC being presumptive President-Elect.

[ilostmypassword]

According to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com state polling is really what you want to look at now that the election is close and there's lots of data. State polling is more granular because the ratio of pollees to state population is much lower than in a national poll.

[Publicus]

 

Also of a great value is that the state polling includes in-state polling organisations.

 

So many states have in-state polling organisations that do a lot of polling in the state year in and year out for all kind of things, from commecial marketing, to opinions of schools and education in the state, to county and whole state elections and the like. The election of Potus is the trophy for a state polling organisation to get right so it can gain the lucrative contracts over the next four years.

 

It is in fact an election by the 50 states. Some states are more important. They and we know who they are. And who they're for at this point.

[ilostmypassword]

One thing that polls don't take into account is the strength of ground operations. That's why Obama actually did better than the average of the polls predicted. His ground operation was far superior to Romney's.  By all accounts Trump has a very weak ground operation.  That alone could give Clinton an extra 3 point boost on election day.

[Publicus]

37 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

One thing that polls don't take into account is the strength of ground operations. That's why Obama actually did better than the average of the polls predicted. His ground operation was far superior to Romney's.  By all accounts Trump has a very weak ground operation.  That alone could give Clinton an extra 3 point boost on election day.

 

The morning of election day 2012 RCP average had OB ahead by 0.7%. Barack won by 4.5%. 

 

David Pouffe said the ground operation, which pros still highly praise, delivered votes in the millions that hadn't shown up in the polls. Twice: 2008 and in 2012. 

 

We can reasonably expect the Clinton ground operation on November 8th will tip the red states that remain close and the senate and house races that are in the balance or remain uphill.

[ilostmypassword]

3 minutes ago, Publicus said:

 

The morning of election day 2012 RCP average had OB ahead by 0.7%. Barack won by 4.5%. 

 

David Pouffe said the ground operation, which pros still highly praise, delivered votes in the millions that hadn't shown up in the polls. Twice: 2008 and in 2012. 

 

We can reasonably expect the Clinton ground operation on November 8th will tip the red states that remain close and the senate and house races that are in the balance or remain uphill.

So, given the state or non-state of Trump's ground operations, maybe better than a 3 percent boost.  Go Trump!

[Publicus]

Michelle Obama is going to Arizona today.

 

Trump's main effects are two. One is to drive educated voters out of the party. The other is to increase the number of Republicans who say they just can't vote for Trump. 

 

Meanwhile...

 

“Three weeks until Election Day, the Trump campaign and the RNC are at risk of letting historically red Arizona slip away,” NBC News reports.

 

Said GOP operative Matthew Benson: “Barring something unforeseen, Trump is going to lose Arizona, and you’re still not seeing the type of activity you’d expect to see if he expects to save it.”

 

“The campaign has placed few resources in the state. There are five staffers aiding Trump’s bid, paid for by a combination of the campaign, the RNC and the Arizona Republican Party.”

 

 

 

The Omaha World-Herald endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, the first Democrat the newspaper has backed in 84 years.

The risk of a Donald Trump presidency is simply too great.

His alienation of so many groups — women, the disabled, Muslim-Americans, former prisoners of war, the family of a Muslim soldier killed in action, Mexican nationals and Mexican-Americans — is too divisive.

Trump shows a lack of statesmanship that is fundamental to serving in the Oval Office.

Amen. 

[Opl]

Is there an actual silent support for D. Trump, that does not appear in the polls but emerge in the votes, so that the results finally end differently than expected ?

It's not impossible when the voters are motivated by resentment, and anger, and express what they feel in their heart .    

Edited October 17, 2016 by Opl

[Publicus]

36 minutes ago, Opl said:

Is there an actual silent support for D. Trump, that does not appear in the polls but emerge in the votes, so that the results finally end differently than expected ?

It's not impossible when the voters are motivated by resentment, and anger, and express what they feel in their heart .    

 

The "silent majority" Richard Nixon talked about in 1972 were nothing more than the people who'd voted for him in 1968.  

 

Reagan Democrats have been voting Republican since Reagan. The're Democrats in name only.

 

Trump has brought back in to the system some people who'd dropped out believing they hadn't any real choice and never would have one. The gain is more than offset by the Republicans fleeing Trump -- Trump's Republican party voter support is down to a breath taking 80%. A Republican for Potus needs 90% support of his party, at the least or the starting gate will open only slowly if at all. 

 

The ground campaign identifies voters previously unknown to you in the key states, and puts you in a direct personal contact with them. Then on election day you physically in a van get 'em out to the polling station and back home again, in groups. Morning, noon, evening....go go go.

 

Trump too no doubt has these voters. How many no one knows -- no campaign ever knows exactly till they get out there and till the voters for several weeks.

 

Problem for Trump is that these voters will be unattended election day due to no or a tiny Trump/Republican Party field organisation. A motivated voter with no ride to the polls is not in fact a voter. A too busy voter with a level of motivation to vote needs to be buttonholed, herded into a van and led by the arm to the voting booth. No field organisation, no votes to the same extent or degree.

 

So the long answer is yes and no. Are some out there, yes. Will they get to vote...very few if any at all. Donald Trump does not have a campaign to include not having a GOTV organisation -- not even in the so-called battlefield states.

 

Clinton's GOTV will produce millions. Trump meanwhile will be wailing and blaming.

[iReason]

From the OP:

 

"With roughly three weeks to Election Day, Republican strategists nationwide publicly concede Hillary Clinton has a firm grip on the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House — and may be on her way to an even more decisive victory over Donald Trump."

 

"He is on track to totally and completely melting down," said Republican pollster Whit Ayers, who is advising Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's re-election campaign."

 

 Done deal.

 

Speaking of meltdowns:

 

"The Oct. 24 issue of TIME may look a little familiar to some readers. In order to capture the latest twists in Donald Trump’s campaign and the rising anger within the Republican party leadership about their standard bearer’s behavior, we asked artist Edel Rodriguez to reprise his illustration of Donald Trump which appeared on the Aug. 22 issue of TIME—this time with just one small twist:"

http://time.com/4528598/donald-trump-meltdown-cover/?xid=time_socialflow_facebook

 

[Opl]

Thanks, Publicus.

So, lets'hope a large majority of people will go out and vote on november 8th. Especially the younger generations,

Millennials are in the front row.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/11/millennials-vote-november-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-fort-collins-colorado/91590254/

 

 

Edited October 17, 2016 by Opl