May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Khun Han]

Can I point out that growth in the last quarter was 0.4%, not 0.3% (which was the growth in the second quarter)? And that Markit's last survey indicated that growth is currently running at 0.5%?

 

And further positive news going forward, here:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/28/uk-economy-boosted-wage-growth-rising-output-adzuna-cbi-surveys

[Orac]

I dont care how much the economy grows 0.2 0.3 as long as each month its up .just like the pound if it only goes up 25 satang every month in a year or so i will be very happy

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A fair point - it was around 52 at the time of the referendum though so very little correlation to gdp growth.


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[simoh1490]

5 hours ago, Khun Han said:

Can I point out that growth in the last quarter was 0.4%, not 0.3% (which was the growth in the second quarter)? And that Markit's last survey indicated that growth is currently running at 0.5%?

 

And further positive news going forward, here:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/28/uk-economy-boosted-wage-growth-rising-output-adzuna-cbi-surveys

 

PMI and GDP are two different things, please don't confuse the two, I used the example of PMI above 50 purely as a parallel or relative example. PMI Markit runs lots of studies which measure performance of sectors around the world so when you say " Markit's last survey indicated that growth is currently running at 0.5%?" you need to be specific about which one and post a link to that particular survey - and to be perfectly clear, Markit PMI does NOT measure GDP.

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

PMI and GDP are two different things, please don't confuse the two, I used the example of PMI above 50 purely as a parallel or relative example. PMI Markit runs lots of studies which measure performance of sectors around the world so when you say " Markit's last survey indicated that growth is currently running at 0.5%?" you need to be specific about which one and post a link to that particular survey - and to be perfectly clear, Markit PMI does NOT measure GDP.

 

No, I'm not getting anything mixed up. Did you read the last Markit report? The report stated that their findings indicated that current growth is running at 0.5%.

 

http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/05122016-Economics-PMI-surveys-indicate-0-5-UK-GDP-growth-in-fourth-quarter-alongside-rising-inflation

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

No, I'm not getting anything mixed up. Did you read the last Markit report? The report stated that their findings indicated that current growth is running at 0.5%.

 

http://www.markit.com/Commentary/Get/05122016-Economics-PMI-surveys-indicate-0-5-UK-GDP-growth-in-fourth-quarter-alongside-rising-inflation

In fact no it did not state that at all! In fact, it stated, "The Markit/CIPS ‘all-sector’ PMI rose from 54.5 in October to a ten-month high of 55.0 in November. The average reading over the past two months is consistent with the economy growing 0.5% in the fourth quarter., ", until GDP figures are released and possibly amended we will not know at what level the economy performed during the fourth quarter.

 

There is only a casual relationship between PMI Markit growth estimates and GDP growth figures, the former is a forward-looking estimate based on opinion, the latter is an actual representation of historical fact. Whilst Markit PMI statistics can often loosely follow economic growth patterns they are not to be relied upon as being precise, in fact on occasion they are wrong by a serious margin. However one of the benefits of the Markit PMI forward-looking view is that it gives us an idea of what people are thinking about the future, the following quote exemplifies:

 

"However, any policy tightening still seems a long way off, given the uncertainty facing the UK economy. The service sector PMI showed business optimism about the coming year dipped in November, to the second-lowest in four years".

 

BTW nice to see you quoting from a reliable and trustworthy newspaper such as The Guardian, keep it up.

[Khun Han]

28 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

In fact no it did not state that at all! In fact, it stated, "The Markit/CIPS ‘all-sector’ PMI rose from 54.5 in October to a ten-month high of 55.0 in November. The average reading over the past two months is consistent with the economy growing 0.5% in the fourth quarter., ", until GDP figures are released and possibly amended we will not know at what level the economy performed during the fourth quarter.

 

There is only a casual relationship between PMI Markit growth estimates and GDP growth figures, the former is a forward-looking estimate based on opinion, the latter is an actual representation of historical fact. Whilst Markit PMI statistics can often loosely follow economic growth patterns they are not to be relied upon as being precise, in fact on occasion they are wrong by a serious margin. However one of the benefits of the Markit PMI forward-looking view is that it gives us an idea of what people are thinking about the future, the following quote exemplifies:

 

"However, any policy tightening still seems a long way off, given the uncertainty facing the UK economy. The service sector PMI showed business optimism about the coming year dipped in November, to the second-lowest in four years".

 

BTW nice to see you quoting from a reliable and trustworthy newspaper such as The Guardian, keep it up.

 

That's an awful lot of garble just to hide your embarrassment at being proven wrong .

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

That's an awful lot of garble just to hide your embarrassment at being proven wrong .

Which part of no, it did not, did you not understand!

[Scott]

Keep it civil or face a warning.  

 

[Khun Han]

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Which part of no, it did not, did you not understand!

 

I understand all of your attempt to blur the fact that you were proven wrong by playing about with words. The Markit report says exactly what I said it did.

[simoh1490]

Today's Telegraph: "UK businesses warn: We are suffering from fall in EU immigration

 

British businesses are already suffering from a lack of workers as EU staff quit their jobs and leave the country, and continental sources of labour dry up.

 

Employment in the UK is currently close to a record high while unemployment is at a 42-year low, making it harder for companies to find the staff they need, even without a fall in the supply of EU workers.

 

The BCC’s survey of companies found 48pc are already suffering skills or labour shortages".

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/28/uk-businesses-warn-suffering-fall-eu-immigration/

 

The economy would perhaps like to grow but can't because we scared off all the workers, how crazy is that! It will no doubt be argued that this has nothing to do with Brexit, of course, big sigh!

[sandyf]

The UK government is responsible for the UK leaving the EU so it is only logical that they meet all expenses incurred in moving the UK border from France back to the UK mainland and vice versa.

Its brexit means brexit, at any cost to the UK, and we certainly don't want to pay for disruption costs to anyone else.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/french-ports-brexit-uk-pay-emmanuel-macron-theresa-may-a8131096.html

[billd766]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Today's Telegraph: "UK businesses warn: We are suffering from fall in EU immigration

 

British businesses are already suffering from a lack of workers as EU staff quit their jobs and leave the country, and continental sources of labour dry up.

 

Employment in the UK is currently close to a record high while unemployment is at a 42-year low, making it harder for companies to find the staff they need, even without a fall in the supply of EU workers.

 

The BCC’s survey of companies found 48pc are already suffering skills or labour shortages".

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/28/uk-businesses-warn-suffering-fall-eu-immigration/

 

The economy would perhaps like to grow but can't because we scared off all the workers, how crazy is that! It will no doubt be argued that this has nothing to do with Brexit, of course, big sigh!

 

Just a silly thought for the New Year.

 

Businesses could actually pay a higher salary to workers and improve the working terms and conditions and then they should have little problems attracting staff.

 

To do that of course would cut into their profits but it is still better than going bankrupt.

[nontabury]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Today's Telegraph: "UK businesses warn: We are suffering from fall in EU immigration

 

British businesses are already suffering from a lack of workers as EU staff quit their jobs and leave the country, and continental sources of labour dry up.

 

Employment in the UK is currently close to a record high while unemployment is at a 42-year low, making it harder for companies to find the staff they need, even without a fall in the supply of EU workers.

 

The BCC’s survey of companies found 48pc are already suffering skills or labour shortages".

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/28/uk-businesses-warn-suffering-fall-eu-immigration/

 

The economy would perhaps like to grow but can't because we scared off all the workers, how crazy is that! It will no doubt be argued that this has nothing to do with Brexit, of course, big sigh!

They don’t state the actual figures for the unemployed. If they did,and looked at the figures they would find quite a large number,who can work, but will not work.

 

[dick dasterdly]

22 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

Just a silly thought for the New Year.

 

Businesses could actually pay a higher salary to workers and improve the working terms and conditions and then they should have little problems attracting staff.

 

To do that of course would cut into their profits but it is still better than going bankrupt.

Thank you.

 

I thought about a (long...) post as to why Brit. employers should pay a living wage, but realised I didn't have the energy .

[dick dasterdly]

25 minutes ago, nontabury said:

They don’t state the actual figures for the unemployed. If they did,and looked at the figures they would find quite a large number,who can work, but will not work.

 

They'd also find a large number who are 'employed' on zero hour contracts/forced into part-time work/in useless higher education courses etc. etc.

 

Great for bringing down govt. unemployment statistics - not so great for the 'quality' of unemployment statistics....

 

Yes, there are more than a few that realise working for minimum pay is less beneficial than claiming the various benefits - once they realise they are unlikely to rise much above minimum pay and that a life in the UK on minimum wage doesn't bear thinking about.

 

But again this is down to various UK governments and greedy companies - made even easier by the EU open borders policy....

Edited December 29, 2017 by dick dasterdly

[Orac]

 
Just a silly thought for the New Year.
 
Businesses could actually pay a higher salary to workers and improve the working terms and conditions and then they should have little problems attracting staff.
 
To do that of course would cut into their profits but it is still better than going bankrupt.

Or they could increase their prices especially if they are selling to U.K. consumers. Should some form of tariff be introduced on imports or non-tariff barriers create extra costs to overseas suppliers to the U.K. market then there would be less competitive pressure keeping prices down.


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[billd766]

10 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Or they could increase their prices especially if they are selling to U.K. consumers. Should some form of tariff be introduced on imports or non-tariff barriers create extra costs to overseas suppliers to the U.K. market then there would be less competitive pressure keeping prices down.


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The problem with that is that most people want cheap (in line with their wages perhaps) and they may not be able to afford the higher prices.

 

That in turn may well cause less sales and more discounts and lower prices, which in turn would mean no pay rises and more zero hour contracts.

[Grouse]

When will it dawn on our poor gallant Brexiters that the Cons will not increase wages or improve conditions any time soon. Much more likely to erode workers rights and keep wages down.

 

We desperately need much better efficiency but that will only come through ramping up automation, robotics, and machine learning

 

The issue of the decade is how to spread the benefits more equally

 

At the moment, the benefits will go to mostly to capital and a few highly skilled employees.

 

Right now we are worse at producing the highly educated and trained workers than many of our competitors.

 

I was rather surprised that when on page 741 I asked if anyone knew what a 741 was? Only one person knew!

[simoh1490]

You can't have the argument both ways!

 

If there is indeed a shortage of staff as a result of high employment and low unemployment, those people on zero hour contracts will surely move into vacant full time paid positions, raising the wage of people on the lower end has therefore already happened by default.

[Srikcir]

8 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

raising the wage of people on the lower end has therefore already happened by default.

And yet,

UK workers face zero real-wage growth over 2018:

• " Real pay remains £15-a-week below its peak before the global financial crash of 2008 and is not expected to recover to its pre-crisis levels until 2025."
• "The good news is that things will get better next year,"
• "The bad news is we may only go from backwards to standing still, with prospects for a meaningful pay recovery still out of sight."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-workers-face-zero-real-wage-growth-over-2018-11186103

Like dePlane, Fantasy Island?

[dick dasterdly]

On 12/27/2017 at 5:47 PM, simoh1490 said:

Express readers, what more can be said.

 A bit like Guardian readers....

 

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/15/intelligence-watchdog-urged-to-look-at-russian-influence-on-brexit-vote

 

How long will it take for everone to realise that all 'papers/magazines are biased?

 

Sorry,  another thread reminded me of the automatic assumption(of some posters) re. 'quality' 'papers on this thread .

 

Of course said posters will also believe the Russians are to blame for the brexit referendum result.....

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

 A bit like Guardian readers....

 

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/15/intelligence-watchdog-urged-to-look-at-russian-influence-on-brexit-vote

 

How long will it take for everone to realise that all 'papers/magazines are biased?

 

Sorry,  another thread reminded me of the automatic assumption(of some posters) re. 'quality' 'papers on this thread .

 

Of course said posters will also believe the Russians are to blame for the brexit referendum result.....

FWIW I don't, I blame it on the Cons., austerity and the education system (and The Express) 

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

Just a silly thought for the New Year.

 

Businesses could actually pay a higher salary to workers and improve the working terms and conditions and then they should have little problems attracting staff.

 

To do that of course would cut into their profits but it is still better than going bankrupt.

It all sounds very easy on the surface Bill but not that straightforward.

Many of the major employers are not British and they invested in the UK in order to make a profit, cutting their profits could mean the business relocating. The Japanese have been moaning for some time about the cut in profits due to the fall in the pound.

There is no dispute many at the top could take a pay cut without batting an eyelid but they are there mainly due to special skills and forcing a reduction in salary could very well trigger another brain drain and be counter productive.

Large numbers of migrant labour are employed in seasonal work for farmers. Shortly after the referendum one farmer shut up shop and took the job lot to eastern Europe, not something we would want to see as a trend.

The NHS is probably the biggest employer of EU workers in the UK and I am fairly certain that everyone would like to see higher salaries and better working conditions, and that certainly wouldn't cut into their profits.

 

Your comment is perfectly valid,  but implementation, fraught with problems.

[simoh1490]

35 minutes ago, sandyf said:

It all sounds very easy on the surface Bill but not that straightforward.

Many of the major employers are not British and they invested in the UK in order to make a profit, cutting their profits could mean the business relocating. The Japanese have been moaning for some time about the cut in profits due to the fall in the pound.

There is no dispute many at the top could take a pay cut without batting an eyelid but they are there mainly due to special skills and forcing a reduction in salary could very well trigger another brain drain and be counter productive.

Large numbers of migrant labour are employed in seasonal work for farmers. Shortly after the referendum one farmer shut up shop and took the job lot to eastern Europe, not something we would want to see as a trend.

The NHS is probably the biggest employer of EU workers in the UK and I am fairly certain that everyone would like to see higher salaries and better working conditions, and that certainly wouldn't cut into their profits.

 

Your comment is perfectly valid,  but implementation, fraught with problems.

The potential for wage inflation at a time when the economic recovery is at a fledgeling stage is a massive problem unless the government can prevent it. Wage and price inflation will lead to the need for increased interest rates at a time when the global recovery is just getting off the ground, increased rates will mean higher government borrowing costs which would lead to cuts in services and increased taxes, they will also lead to increased cost of living costs, especially mortgage costs for the average family. So whilst there might be a case to improve the wage on the bottom end, doing so will set off a chain reaction that has the potential to jeopardise the entire economic recovery at a time when Brexit concerns are already producing economic headwinds.

[talahtnut]

18 hours ago, Grouse said:

When will it dawn on our poor gallant Brexiters that the Cons will not increase wages or improve conditions any time soon. Much more likely to erode workers rights and keep wages down.

 

We desperately need much better efficiency but that will only come through ramping up automation, robotics, and machine learning

 

The issue of the decade is how to spread the benefits more equally

 

At the moment, the benefits will go to mostly to capital and a few highly skilled employees.

 

Right now we are worse at producing the highly educated and trained workers than many of our competitors.

 

I was rather surprised that when on page 741 I asked if anyone knew what a 741 was? Only one person knew!

''The issue of the decade is how to spread the benefits more equally''

In or out of EU wont make any difference to the social imbalance.

The government should concentrate on economic development, not economic growth.

[billd766]

6 hours ago, sandyf said:

It all sounds very easy on the surface Bill but not that straightforward.

Many of the major employers are not British and they invested in the UK in order to make a profit, cutting their profits could mean the business relocating. The Japanese have been moaning for some time about the cut in profits due to the fall in the pound.

There is no dispute many at the top could take a pay cut without batting an eyelid but they are there mainly due to special skills and forcing a reduction in salary could very well trigger another brain drain and be counter productive.

Large numbers of migrant labour are employed in seasonal work for farmers. Shortly after the referendum one farmer shut up shop and took the job lot to eastern Europe, not something we would want to see as a trend.

The NHS is probably the biggest employer of EU workers in the UK and I am fairly certain that everyone would like to see higher salaries and better working conditions, and that certainly wouldn't cut into their profits.

 

Your comment is perfectly valid,  but implementation, fraught with problems.

 

I agree with you 100% Sandy but TBH unless something is done in the near future, (Brexit, hard, soft or none) thesituation in the UK can only get worse. I live in Thailand so ithe only way that I will be affected is if the UK cannot pay my pensions.

 

My son (I think) bought his house at Liss Forrest on the back of his grandmothers death as her bungalow etc was inherited by my ex wife and our son. Now I have a grandson of 6 and a granddaughter of 3 and I suspect that the only way they will own a house will be when my ex-wife dies and they sell her place.

 

What jobs they will get when they enter the job market I have no idea as I cannot see that far into the future. Perhaps my granddaughter will follow her Mum in the child minding business and my grandson will follow my son into the motor industry.

[talahtnut]

15 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I agree with you 100% Sandy but TBH unless something is done in the near future, (Brexit, hard, soft or none) thesituation in the UK can only get worse. I live in Thailand so ithe only way that I will be affected is if the UK cannot pay my pensions.

 

My son (I think) bought his house at Liss Forrest on the back of his grandmothers death as her bungalow etc was inherited by my ex wife and our son. Now I have a grandson of 6 and a granddaughter of 3 and I suspect that the only way they will own a house will be when my ex-wife dies and they sell her place.

 

What jobs they will get when they enter the job market I have no idea as I cannot see that far into the future. Perhaps my granddaughter will follow her Mum in the child minding business and my grandson will follow my son into the motor industry.

The result of a greedy, self interested, capitalist, piss pot mean government.

Things will only get worse. I can only hope for my UK kids future same as you.

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I agree with you 100% Sandy but TBH unless something is done in the near future, (Brexit, hard, soft or none) thesituation in the UK can only get worse. I live in Thailand so ithe only way that I will be affected is if the UK cannot pay my pensions.

 

My son (I think) bought his house at Liss Forrest on the back of his grandmothers death as her bungalow etc was inherited by my ex wife and our son. Now I have a grandson of 6 and a granddaughter of 3 and I suspect that the only way they will own a house will be when my ex-wife dies and they sell her place.

 

What jobs they will get when they enter the job market I have no idea as I cannot see that far into the future. Perhaps my granddaughter will follow her Mum in the child minding business and my grandson will follow my son into the motor industry.

Quite Bill, doesn't matter where you are there is always concern for ones offspring. My son is still quite young but they have been quite sensible, they bought their house before going to the expense of getting married. Not got any grandchildren yet, first one is due in May but can't help worrying about what sort of post brexit world he/she will grow up in.

I watched a movie last night, The Foreigner, stark reminder of the sectarian violence that took place within the UK. We can only pray that there is no deterioration to similar circumstances within the UK in the future.

[simoh1490]

On the lighter side of life.

 

It seems that Nigel Farage did not completely escape attention in the new year honours list, for services to country and Brexit:

 

https://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2017/12/29/dog-shit-bin-rochdale-park-named-nigel-farage-new-years-honours-list/

[Grouse]

13 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

On the lighter side of life.

 

It seems that Nigel Farage did not completely escape attention in the new year honours list, for services to country and Brexit:

 

https://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2017/12/29/dog-shit-bin-rochdale-park-named-nigel-farage-new-years-honours-list/

Fabulous!