British pounds. Transfer now or wait?

[rickudon]

Well, the pound was slowly drifting down for most of October. The court ruling has given it a boost, but with Brexidiot Nazis and the right wing press hounding ANYONE who doubts Brexit (presumably at least 48% of the electorate don't like it) we can expect the MPs to cave in if it comes to a vote (my guess in February). Once article 50 is invoked , a slight further fall is my guess.

 

As the hope of beneficial trade deals is remote (India basically laughed in May's face at the thought of this) and the current negotiating stance with Europe would just be totally unacceptable ( freedom of movement is the bottom line, and May has said she wants to reduce migration by 80%), so 2 years of fruitless negotiations will probably see the pound bump along around the 40 baht to the pound mark (or lower? I hope not) until 2019. After that, could go either way.

 

So my advice (which you can take with a pinch of salt) is move enough money to last 3 years now, this is probably the high point.....I hope to have changed all my GBP by the end of the week.

[happy Joe]

On 07/11/2016 at 3:29 PM, Hutch68 said:

I'm going to wait a while. Thanks.

 

 

Well !

 

The pound rate in the coming years will be before and during the voting session in Parliament.

1 The forecasts are with the acceptation and hard Brexit. New down 5 to 10%
2 The forecast is to a refusal or soft leaving. Immediate rise between 5 and 10%
3 The vote will confirm the forecast to double these figures.

 

The months following will see an accentuation of this tendency.

 

Of course, my predictions may be contradicted by new facts unknown to-day. But for now I'm pretty sure my point.

[chiang mai]

On 05/11/2016 at 5:34 PM, paulbj2 said:

My logic was this:

 

If Trump gets the job of POTUS, I believe the US$ will take a massive hit. If that is the case the GB£ will almost certainly rise against the Thai Baht.

 

If Hillary gets the job I don't think there will any great change so you won't be any worse off.

 

If you can delay longer then the Thai Central Bank may stop its "crisis" support for the Baht (assuming that the rumours of that support are true), in which case the value of the Baht may "readjust" to a slightly lower level.

 

What crisis support of the Baht are you talking about the one in your dreams!

 

If BOT was supporting the Baht to any substantial degree, that fact would show up in sales of their foreign currency reserves here:

 

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=ENG

 

If you look carefully you will see that the foreign currency reserves are actually increasing, exactly the opposite of what would happen if they were supporting THB by selling USD!

 

A more probable scenario for THB is that Sterling will fall further, USD will strengthen (assuming Trump doesn't get in) and THB will hit 40 to the Pound within twelve months or so.

 

As for the guys telling us to wait because THB is somehow mystically going to crash against the Pound, enjoy your wait, consider a hobby to fill the time, one that will occupy you for a long long time.

[chickenslegs]

11 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

What crisis support of the Baht are you talking about the one in your dreams!

 

If BOT was supporting the Baht to any substantial degree, that fact would show up in sales of their foreign currency reserves here:

 

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=ENG

 

If you look carefully you will see that the foreign currency reserves are actually increasing, exactly the opposite of what would happen if they were supporting THB by selling USD!

 

A more probable scenario for THB is that Sterling will fall further, USD will strengthen (assuming Trump doesn't get in) and THB will hit 40 to the Pound within twelve months or so.

 

As for the guys telling us to wait because THB is somehow mystically going to crash against the Pound, enjoy your wait, consider a hobby to fill the time, one that will occupy you for a long long time.

 

"(assuming Trump doesn't get in)"

 

Damn!

[chiang mai]

59 minutes ago, chickenslegs said:

 

"(assuming Trump doesn't get in)"

 

Damn!

 

THB is now at an average 42.92 versus 43.60 this morning so go figure.