Baht depreciation expected

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, oldhippy said:

Good on you, but many (most?) people do.

And same goes for tourism being x% "of" GDP.

FWIW I think receipts from direct tourism represent about 18% of GDP, is there a problem with that in your world?

[oldhippy]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

FWIW I think receipts from direct tourism represent about 18% of GDP, is there a problem with that in your world?

Yes there is a problem with that in my world.

You are comparing apples to pears.

But admittedtly it is usefull to compare one country to another.

 

[Banana7]

THB to USD is at or near the bottom now, for the next 6 months. If you don't need THB in the next 1-3 weeks, hold your USD. Technical analysis indicators are turning to buy USD at www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb-technical

 

[simoh1490]

21 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

Yes there is a problem with that in my world.

You are comparing apples to pears.

But admittedtly it is usefull to compare one country to another.

 

Tell me more. I see GDP as being the sum of all revenue produced and earned in country, just as an export is made in country and sold, no?

[oldhippy]

26 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Tell me more. I see GDP as being the sum of all revenue produced and earned in country, just as an export is made in country and sold, no?

GDP is measured NET, as in value added (hence VAT), it is the sum of all Added Value.

It includes export, tourism, agriculture, internal trade, banks,... even government.

 

Revenue of tourism or exports is a GROSS amount, the turnover, the amount of total sales.

 

Ex absurdo: with tourism 18% - exports -68%, that does not leave much for agriculture etc.

 

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

GDP is measured NET, as in value added (hence VAT), it is the sum of all Added Value.

It includes export, tourism, agriculture, internal trade, banks,... even government.

 

Revenue of tourism or exports is a GROSS amount, the turnover, the amount of total sales.

 

Ex absurdo: with tourism 18% - exports -68%, that does not leave much for agriculture etc.

 

2

Something just went whoosh....give me a short while to digest what you wrote, and my dinner!

 

Initially.... tourism receipts are value added, I agree however that exports are not. 

[simoh1490]

OK, I feel much better:)

 

This is a slicing issue, GDP comprises 68% exported goods and services whilst 32% are for home consumption (rounded and approximate).

 

Sliced differently however, GDP comprises 8% Agriculture, 56% Services and 36% Industry.

 

So whilst we might say that exports represents 68% of GDP, we might say in the same breath that GDP also includes 56% services which implies a total greater than 100%, which of course is not the case.

 

So where do Tourism receipts fit in. Direct tourism at 18% is a function of Services, Agro. and Industry since their outputs are utilised in arriving at the 18%, like the earlier example that 18% is consistent with saying that exports = 68% and services = 56%, all in the same breath but is misleading and doesn't present a clean and complete model.

 

Can you agree with some or all of that?

Edited March 29, 2018 by simoh1490

[talahtnut]

30 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

OK, I feel much better:)

 

This is a slicing issue, GDP comprises 68% exported goods and services whilst 32% are for home consumption (rounded and approximate).

 

Sliced differently however, GDP comprises 8% Agriculture, 56% Services and 36% Industry.

 

So whilst we might say that exports represents 68% of GDP, we might say in the same breath that GDP also includes 56% services which implies a total greater than 100%, which of course is not the case.

 

So where do Tourism receipts fit in. Direct tourism at 18% is a function of Services, Agro. and Industry since their outputs are utilised in arriving at the 18%, like the earlier example that 18% is consistent with saying that exports = 68% and services = 56%, all in the same breath but is misleading and doesn't present a clean and complete model.

 

Can you agree with some or all of that?

I agree with one word in your post...'misleading'..

it is the the word that controls everything. 

  Good morning, your an early bird simoh.

Edited March 29, 2018 by talahtnut
justification

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

I agree with one word in your post...'misleading'..it is the word that controls

everything.   Good morning, your an early bird simoh.

Early birds - Healthy, wealthy, wise and handsum....and all that.

[talahtnut]

2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Early birds - Healthy, wealthy, wise and handsum....and all that.

'handsum' ..bargirls been misleading you again?

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

'handsum' ..bargirls been misleading you again?

The wife, she's such a charmer, but not bad that she still thinks that after 16 years, it's true of course. Anyway, back to THB and Thai GDP before we get yelled at.

[Henryford]

On 3/28/2018 at 7:10 PM, EricTh said:

The Thai baht is getting stronger and stronger, there'll be less and less people making Thailand a retirement home.

The Thai baht is not getting stronger and stronger it is the western currencies that are getting weaker and weaker. If you engage in massive money printing and run on massive annual fiscal deficits then your currency will slowly decline until it is worthless. That is the fate of the Pound/Dollar.

[tingtongtourist]

18 minutes ago, Henryford said:

The Thai baht is not getting stronger and stronger it is the western currencies that are getting weaker and weaker. If you engage in massive money printing and run on massive annual fiscal deficits then your currency will slowly decline until it is worthless. That is the fate of the Pound/Dollar.

its Trumps secret fantasy

open new mint that prints only 1million dollar notes

debt payed in no time, so easy

 

make America great again lol

[Srikcir]

21 minutes ago, tingtongtourist said:

its Trumps secret fantasy

open new mint that prints only 1million dollar notes

debt payed in no time, so easy

 

make America great again lol

Going a little off topic but it's not Trump's secret fantasy. The Obama Treasury considered creating a trillion dollar platinum coin to solve the issue of the debt crisis in the U.S.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trillion-dollar-coin.asp#ixzz5BCHLeyvh
As far as the baht is concerned, Thailand's total government debt as percent of GDP at less than 50% won't pressure a lower baht. Fall in exports will but thus far export value has been increasing.

[jerry921]

4 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

OK, I feel much better:)

 

This is a slicing issue, GDP comprises 68% exported goods and services whilst 32% are for home consumption (rounded and approximate).

 

Sliced differently however, GDP comprises 8% Agriculture, 56% Services and 36% Industry.

 

So whilst we might say that exports represents 68% of GDP, we might say in the same breath that GDP also includes 56% services which implies a total greater than 100%, which of course is not the case.

 

So where do Tourism receipts fit in. Direct tourism at 18% is a function of Services, Agro. and Industry since their outputs are utilised in arriving at the 18%, like the earlier example that 18% is consistent with saying that exports = 68% and services = 56%, all in the same breath but is misleading and doesn't present a clean and complete model.

 

Can you agree with some or all of that?

That wasn't what I got from oldhippy's post. I zeroed in on "net" vs "gross", which isn't quite the same as slicing in different directions.

I'm reminded of the George Bush quote: "Make the pie higher". But hopefully you'll get an answer from oldhippy at some point.

[Naam]

16 hours ago, oldhippy said:

Ex absurdo: with tourism 18% - exports -68%, that does not leave much for agriculture etc.

a part of the export (rice) is agriculture based.

[Naam]

17 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Tell me more. I see GDP as being the sum of all revenue produced and earned in country, just as an export is made in country and sold, no?

please drop the word "revenue" as a substantial nominal percentage of GDP in any country contains items which do not generate any revenue.

[Naam]

53 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Going a little off topic but it's not Trump's secret fantasy. The Obama Treasury considered creating a trillion dollar platinum coin to solve the issue of the debt crisis in the U.S.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trillion-dollar-coin.asp#ixzz5BCHLeyvh
As far as the baht is concerned, Thailand's total government debt as percent of GDP at less than 50% won't pressure a lower baht. Fall in exports will but thus far export value has been increasing.

considered = rubbish!

Quote

A trillion dollar coin is a theoretical coin that could be legally minted

 

[simoh1490]

31 minutes ago, Naam said:

please drop the word "revenue" as a substantial nominal percentage of GDP in any country contains items which do not generate any revenue.

Mmm, semantics, nominal revenue is still produced somewhere otherwise it can't exist.

[simoh1490]

43 minutes ago, jerry921 said:

That wasn't what I got from oldhippy's post. I zeroed in on "net" vs "gross", which isn't quite the same as slicing in different directions.

I'm reminded of the George Bush quote: "Make the pie higher". But hopefully you'll get an answer from oldhippy at some point.

Feel free to come up with your own explanation if you like, I don't mind being amongst other contestants. 

[Naam]

2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Mmm, semantics, nominal revenue is still produced somewhere otherwise it can't exist.

that's not semantics at all. here's an example... if the U.S. fires a cruise missile that costs a million dollars and replaces the missile with a new one manufactured by the U.S. company General Dynamics then a million dollars is added to GDP.  "nominal" revenue is BS² presented by eggheads in universities to students who take it as face value without realising that "nominal" is not real! 

[simoh1490]

Just now, Naam said:

that's not semantics at all. here's an example... if the U.S. fires a cruise missile that costs a million dollars and replaces the missile with a new one manufactured by the U.S. company General Dynamics then a million dollars is added to GDP.  "nominal" revenue is BS² presented by eggheads in universities to students who take it as face value without realising that "nominal" is not real! 

Except that nominal is a value that is created on paper hence it is produced, it may not be real money but by virtue of its inclusion in the numbers it is produced, ergo, semantics.

[oldhippy]

The confusion between Revenue and GDP:

 

A business has a turnover / revenue / sales amount of 10 mln.

That business purchases goods and services for 8 mln.

>>> Revenue 10 million

>>> Contribution to GDP 2 million

 

This applies to ALL bussinesses, including manufactering, services, export, tourism.

 

When people quote the % of exports or tourism, and compare it  to GDP, they compare the 10 mln to the 2 million.

 

 

[Naam]

2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Except that nominal is a value that is created on paper hence it is produced, it may not be real money but by virtue of its inclusion in the numbers it is produced, ergo, semantics.

you must be one of the chaps who sends his wife shopping with the percentages of profit from your investments and wonder why she can't buy anything , right? 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, Naam said:

you must be one of the chaps who sends his wife shopping with the percentages of profit from your investments and wonder why she can't buy anything , right? 

That's a totally different picture, I make her use her own money everytime hence my investments continue to grow, doesn't everyone?

[Naam]

3 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

The confusion between Revenue and GDP:

 

A business has a turnover / revenue / sales amount of 10 mln.

That business purchases goods and services for 8 mln.

>>> Revenue 10 million

>>> Contribution to GDP 2 million

 

This applies to ALL bussinesses, including manufactering, services, export, tourism.

 

When people quote the % of exports or tourism, and compare it  to GDP, they compare the 10 mln to the 2 million.

 

 

if that business purchases goods and services domestically the added value included in the 8 million are added to GDP. and so it goes on and on till one lands at a fraction below 10 million total.

[simoh1490]

7 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

The confusion between Revenue and GDP:

 

A business has a turnover / revenue / sales amount of 10 mln.

That business purchases goods and services for 8 mln.

>>> Revenue 10 million

>>> Contribution to GDP 2 million

 

This applies to ALL bussinesses, including manufactering, services, export, tourism.

 

When people quote the % of exports or tourism, and compare it  to GDP, they compare the 10 mln to the 2 million.

 

 

I may need a while.....again!

[oldhippy]

7 minutes ago, Naam said:

that's not semantics at all. here's an example... if the U.S. fires a cruise missile that costs a million dollars and replaces the missile with a new one manufactured by the U.S. company General Dynamics then a million dollars is added to GDP.  "nominal" revenue is BS² presented by eggheads in universities to students who take it as face value without realising that "nominal" is not real! 

There is no economic difference between firing a cruise missile and eating your food..... both are consumption, both are destruction of the produced GDP.

And in this case, the new cruise missile (just like digested food) will contribute far less than 1 mln to GDP.

[oldhippy]

6 minutes ago, Naam said:

if that business purchases goods and services domestically the added value included in the 8 million are added to GDP. and so it goes on and on till one lands at a fraction below 10 million total.

Not sure what you mean exactly with the end of your sentence (...untill one lands at...).

But it is incorrect to compare the turnover (f ex of tourism or exports) to GDP.

 

Of course you may use these % when you compare Thailand to Spain, or Thailand now vs Thailand before. That would give you an approximate idea of relative importance or evolution.

 

But if tourism is 12% of GDP, export 68%, then you come to far more than 100% of GDP if you similarly calculate the % of agriculture, banking, government, insurance,...

 

 

[jerry921]

Oldhippy, as I understand you, you're essentially defining GDP as gross domestic profit. I don't understand economics well enough to critique that, I just observe that it seems slightly different from the definitions given here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp

 

The link contains more info than I suspect anyone here wants to completely read. I scanned it.

 

I think if tourists come to Thailand and spend X billion, all their spending counts as GDP, except for when the tourist consumes something imported. But imports are always subtracted from GDP at the top level, so you should add all the revenue from tourism to GDP, since it is effectively an export (you are exporting what the foreign consumer consumes when they tour Thailand). Not just the profit from tourism.

 

Maybe this gets to which of the three ways mentioned in the link you calculate GDP.

 

Whatever. I think I feel my eyes glazing over and a headache coming on, and I'm approaching the point of don't-care.

 

Tell me again how this relates to the question of Baht appreciation or depreciation vs the dollar (and GBP)??