Hard Brexit would damage 'almost every sector' of UK economy

[metisdead]

Quote

It was once policy that Thaivisa subjects were related to Thailand was it not?
 

 

This topic is in the World News forum:  World News is for topics not related to Thailand

 

Some heated bickering and baiting posts and replies have been removed.  It is suggested everybody calms down and to keep the discussion civil.  

 

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

I'd be a little less smug about the "people voted to leave" thing.  It was hardly an overwhelming majority.  

 

And knowing what they know today, there would probably be enough people changing their votes to go the other way.  

 

Or do the wishes of voters today have less legitimacy than the wishes of voters a few months ago?  That's the problem with democracy by referendum and why that's not the way it works in the UK or USA.  You have a representative democracy and the representatives haven't weighed in, have they?  They may weigh in very differently today.

Yes, we're being repeatedly assured that the vote would be different if carried out today.

 

A bit odd as nothing has changed so far for those living in the UK.

 

It can't be typical media propaganda surely?

[dunroaming]

None so blind as those who refuse to see.  The brexit boys will never accept that they made a mistake and will keep the faith while the ship slowly sinks.  Actually the ship won't sink but it will be badly holed for quite a while.

[SgtRock]

4 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

None so blind as those who refuse to see

 

How true.

 

What a pity that the there are thGreaose that cannot see the very real danger to the EUR / EZ which will ultimately cause the demise of the EU.

 

But the UK should stay in the EU.

 

Great idea.

[impulse]

1 minute ago, dick dasterdly said:

Yes, we're being repeatedly assured that the vote would be different if carried out today.

 

A bit odd as nothing has changed so far for those living in the UK.

 

It can't be typical media propaganda surely?

 

It very well may be media propaganda.  But there has been a significant effect on the value of securities held by people living in the UK, which a lot of them depend on for their retirement.  That's been balanced by some good news on the unemployment numbers, and other figures that seem pretty fluid. 

 

I don't have a dog in the fight.  Leave or stay, I don't care.  But do it the right way.  

 

And if things change drastically before it becomes irrevocable (I'm not saying that's the case, just a what-if) , I'd rather not see the UK stay on a course that's going to be catastrophic for a huge segment of their population. 

[metisdead]

 

Some reported posts were reviewed and found that the quoted content had not been altered in that they were not in violation of this forum rule:

 

16) You will not make changes to quoted material from other members posts, except for purposes of shortening the quoted post. This cannot be done in such a manner that it alters the context of the original post.
 

[dunroaming]

11 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

How true.

 

What a pity that the there are thGreaose that cannot see the very real danger to the EUR / EZ which will ultimately cause the demise of the EU.

 

But the UK should stay in the EU.

 

Great idea.

 

I think it is valid to question the future of the EU and with the current round of elections it may well see choppy waters ahead if not the complete collapse.  I have always said that if voting leave means that the EU has to be completely re-structured if not re-invented then I would be all for it.  That is as long as we can be included in the new set-up.  I haven't changed my mind on that.

 

However my post was dealing with the effect on Britain of leaving the EU and that is what this report is about.  It is not about whether we should leave, it is about the fallout for all of us Brits.

[SgtRock]

4 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

 

I think it is valid to question the future of the EU and with the current round of elections it may well see choppy waters ahead if not the complete collapse.  I have always said that if voting leave means that the EU has to be completely re-structured if not re-invented then I would be all for it.  That is as long as we can be included in the new set-up.  I haven't changed my mind on that.

 

However my post was dealing with the effect on Britain of leaving the EU and that is what this report is about.  It is not about whether we should leave, it is about the fallout for all of us Brits.

 

I am of the opinion that the UK leaving the EU could give the UK the opportunity to correct everything that is wrong with the UK, without interference from the EU. Whether that the EU is anything to do with those is a bit of a sticking point, but it is certainly an excuse that UK Politicians and all sorts of other people are very quick to use when they are trying to defend their position. One way or another, it will alleviate that issue.

 

The UK will suffer, the extent is not known yet and will not be known until that point is actually reached. This again, I can only see in a good light as it will make the UK become more self sufficient, rather than than the path it is currently on, which, IMO is nothing more than an unsustainable Ponzi scheme, based on debt.

 

I am also of the opinion that the pain that the UK will go through as a stand alone unit, will be far less than the pain it will go through if / when the EUR / EZ collapses, which will lead to the collapse of the EU.

 

Here is one take on it, which I have been saying since pre-referendum on various threads.

 

Quote

“Brexit is going to be a sideshow to the problems of Europe that are becoming more and more evident,” Mellon said. “The euro as it stands at the moment is just a very inappropriate mechanism -- I give the euro between one and five years of life.”

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/investor-who-backed-brexit-sees-euro-breaking-up-within-5-years

 

He is absolutely correct, Brexit will be a sideshow, IMO it will not even be a sideshow. 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm also tired of this exaggeration.

 

Sterling/bht used to be (over the previous year?) just under 50 bht to sterling.  It increased overnight when markets thought the vote would be remain.

 

And yet some are still saying the drop has been 20%, or in this case 23%!

 

Don't misunderstand me, the drop has been huge for those of us living on Brits. pension income - but its not 20% and even less 23%....

 

Look at XE

 

1 year graph shows 55 down to 45 which is about 22% delta

 

What is your point?

[AllanB]

The EU leaders are full of crap, they look after their mates, not the people of the EU.

 

They imposed sanctions on Russia and all that happened was that the Russians stopped a whole load of imports from the EU. This has ruined the fresh produce industries, mainly from southern European countries, who desperately need the business.

 

The Russians are now importing from Turkey and building a bigger home grown industry, so the effect on the EU is likely to be permanent.

 

But it doesn't effect the Banksters so who gives a shit, certainly not Junckers and co.

 

We should bear this attitude in mind when Brexit negs begin, we could do very well out of duties being imposed by both sides... We could use import duty revenue to compensate exporters by the same amount and have money left over for the treasury. Meaning export prices would remain the same to the EU while imports would cost more to consumers in the UK, encouraging us to buy British, or from zero tariff countries, all at the expense of the EU.

 

But this will all be academic if Marine LePenn is elected. 

[dunroaming]

13 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

“The euro as it stands at the moment is just a very inappropriate mechanism -- I give the euro between one and five years of life.”

 

Yes we didn't join the euro club and that was a sensible move.  For all the countries that did can you imagine the chaos in trying to re-instate each countries origin currency?  Everything is still speculation but whatever happens it is a worrying time from my perspective. I do business in Europe and in the USA so for me it's a double whammy!

[onthesoi]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm also tired of this exaggeration.

 

Sterling/bht used to be (over the previous year?) just under 50 bht to sterling.  It increased overnight when markets thought the vote would be remain.

 

And yet some are still saying the drop has been 20%, or in this case 23%!

 

Don't misunderstand me, the drop has been huge for those of us living on Brits. pension income - but its not 20% and even less 23%....

 

As someone who was watching the rate like a hawk, before, during and after the vote I can say your figures are quite wrong.

 

Previously the rate was around 53, now its around 43.. That means you now have to spend 23.256% more pounds to get the same amount of baht as the day before the brexit vote.....

 

As for the part in bold, by your own admission the pound strengthened when it was thought the UK would remain... What does that tell you about what would happen if we were to remain?

Edited November 28, 2016 by onthesoi

[Xircal]

Actually, Britain could abide by the wishes of half the electorate who voted to leave the EU, but still maintain access to the single market if it wishes. That's because Britain is also a member of the EEA in the same way that Norway is for example.

 

Since triggering Article 50 only applies to the mechanism to leave the EU, Britain would remain in the EEA unless it triggered Article 127 as well. That would however mean that the country would have to accept the same four EU principles one of which is free movement of people. http://www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons

 

[elliss]

4 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

Incorrect.

 

We have not left yet

 

Most of the harm done to date would be reversed if we decided to remain.

 

        UK  , will remain in the EU .

        Madam May was and still is  against  Brexit . 

          

[dunroaming]

May has now said that there needs to be compromise on both sides and concedes it would be hard to push ahead with a hard brexit.  It is still early days and all the players are not in place yet. Nothing is realistically going to happen until next year and all this speculation is getting boring already.

 

On the bright side, 2017 should bring us lots to fall out over!

[The Dark Lord]

5 minutes ago, elliss said:

 

        UK  , will remain in the EU .

        Madam May was and still is  against  Brexit . 

          

Then may God preserve democracy and the will of the people.

 

i am becoming thoroughly ashamed of those clowns who cannot accept that someone has a different opinion to them so they must be wrong. Why?

 

 

i have a degree from a good uni in the UK ( when our unis were good) so I am not one of the so called illiterati who voted for BREXIT but I was so fed up with those idiotic politicians who are elected and paid for by the people to represent the people but who believe they know better than those who they are supposed to represent.

 

thay is why I voted out to get some answerability back into the slime pit of politics.

 

just accept it you bad loosers you lost the popular votet so suck it up.

 

democratic polling is not one where you keep on having a vote until you get the answer you want,  it is accepting that those who had a responsibility to ensure everyone was fully informed of what the vote entailed did their job properly and people placed their vote based on that. 

 

These pathetic tic so called millenniums who have been pampered by never being told they lost at anything ( sports day everyone gets a medal so no one feels left out etc) are experiencing a new feeling. It is called losing or not getting your way.

 

 

[Grouse]

14 minutes ago, The Dark Lord said:

Then may God preserve democracy and the will of the people.

 

i am becoming thoroughly ashamed of those clowns who cannot accept that someone has a different opinion to them so they must be wrong. Why?

 

 

i have a degree from a good uni in the UK ( when our unis were good) so I am not one of the so called illiterati who voted for BREXIT but I was so fed up with those idiotic politicians who are elected and paid for by the people to represent the people but who believe they know better than those who they are supposed to represent.

 

thay is why I voted out to get some answerability back into the slime pit of politics.

 

just accept it you bad loosers you lost the popular votet so suck it up.

 

democratic polling is not one where you keep on having a vote until you get the answer you want,  it is accepting that those who had a responsibility to ensure everyone was fully informed of what the vote entailed did their job properly and people placed their vote based on that. 

 

These pathetic tic so called millenniums who have been pampered by never being told they lost at anything ( sports day everyone gets a medal so no one feels left out etc) are experiencing a new feeling. It is called losing or not getting your way.

 

 

 

Why, exactly, do you want us to leave?

[dunroaming]

5 minutes ago, The Dark Lord said:

i have a degree from a good uni in the UK ( when our unis were good) so I am not one of the so called illiterati who voted for BREXIT but I was so fed up with those idiotic politicians who are elected and paid for by the people to represent the people but who believe they know better than those who they are supposed to represent.

 

thay is why I voted out to get some answerability back into the slime pit of politics.

 

I can understand how you would want to give Cameron and the gang a kicking by voting leave but that doesn't solve the problem with the political scene one bit.  The politicians we have in the UK will be no improvement on what we have now and it is unlikely that will change anytime soon.

 

I am sure the losers would feel much better if only someone could tell them where we are heading.  At the moment nobody seems to have a clue!

 

Oh and for the record I have a degree from a pretty good university too, not that that makes me anymore qualified than anyone else to give an opinion.  We are all equal in that and more

[The Dark Lord]

Just now, dunroaming said:

 

I can understand how you would want to give Cameron and the gang a kicking by voting leave but that doesn't solve the problem with the political scene one bit.  The politicians we have in the UK will be no improvement on what we have now and it is unlikely that will change anytime soon.

 

I am sure the losers would feel much better if only someone could tell them where we are heading.  At the moment nobody seems to have a clue!

 

Oh and for the record I have a degree from a pretty good university too, not that that makes me anymore qualified than anyone else to give an opinion.  We are all equal in that and more

I fully agree with you I was only making the point about the degree so as to counter any thoughts s about being one of the " illiterati"

 

you are right as well well when you say we could do with some info on what the f is happening. 

I have a sinking feeling that the ones making the most noise may we'll end up getting their own way by default as inaction and an apparent lack of interest in making anything happen seems to adding to the malaise.

[dunroaming]

I think that there is inaction because there is no clear direction. There was no action plan because none of the parties thought that more people would vote to leave rather than remain.  It hadn't been thought through and the whole campaign was based on propaganda.  When it became reality then they had no idea how to progress from there.

 

The politicians have once again shown themselves to be a complete bunch of no-hopers. 

[AllanB]

51 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Why, exactly, do you want us to leave?

The EU is totally corrupt.

The EU is totally undemocratic.

The EU is designed to serve multinationals and not it's people.

The EU has bankrupted half it's countries..and counting.

The EU is totally useless at negotiating any trade deals with anyone.

The EU is nothing but a "gravy train".

The EU costs the UK a fortune, for nothing back.

The EU has robbed us of around 80% of our considerable and lucrative fishing waters.

The EU doesn't listen to anything we have to say, so we are an irreverence in this club.

The EU forced us to dump our valuable friends in the Commonwealth.

The EU are forcing us to accept a load of economic migrants who have little or no value to us.

The EU migrants are a real security risk to us.

The EU spends a fortune shipping MEPs and all their crap to Strasbourg, every month for absolutely no reason whatsoever. 

The EU is a complete waste of space and money.

The EU as bad as it is, is getting worse by the minute.

We can negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of the world.

We can begin trading with the Commonwealth again.

We can invite migrants into the UK who are useful to us.

We can vet the migrants who enter the UK.

Many of these other countries use English in their negotiations.

Many of these other countries operate and English style trade systems

..........and many other reasons.

 

And the reason for staying in the cesspit is what? 

 

Edited November 28, 2016 by AllanB

[Grouse]

50 minutes ago, AllanB said:

The EU is totally corrupt.

The EU is totally undemocratic.

The EU is designed to serve multinationals and not it's people.

The EU has bankrupted half it's countries..and counting.

The EU is totally useless at negotiating any trade deals with anyone.

The EU is nothing but a "gravy train".

The EU costs the UK a fortune, for nothing back.

The EU has robbed us of around 80% of our considerable and lucrative fishing waters.

The EU doesn't listen to anything we have to say, so we are an irreverence in this club.

The EU forced us to dump our valuable friends in the Commonwealth.

The EU are forcing us to accept a load of economic migrants who have little or no value to us.

The EU migrants are a real security risk to us.

The EU spends a fortune shipping MEPs and all their crap to Strasbourg, every month for absolutely no reason whatsoever. 

The EU is a complete waste of space and money.

The EU as bad as it is, is getting worse by the minute.

We can negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of the world.

We can begin trading with the Commonwealth again.

We can invite migrants into the UK who are useful to us.

We can vet the migrants who enter the UK.

Many of these other countries use English in their negotiations.

Many of these other countries operate and English style trade systems

..........and many other reasons.

 

And the reason for staying in the cesspit is what? 

 

 

Actually, with so many Brits like you, I'm going to be pro Brexit and take up residency in another EU country. I was hoping for a useful discussion but you are obviously closed to that.

[dunroaming]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

 

Actually, with so many Brits like you, I'm going to be pro Brexit and take up residency in another EU country. I was hoping for a useful discussion but you are obviously closed to that.

 

The thing is that if you stand back from the front line of TV bickering then our lives haven't actually changed that much yet and probably won't much in the future.  My accountant is still an Indian lady, my solicitor is still Sri Lankan and my dentist is still Swiss.  My plumber is obviously Polish,  my postman is from Liverpool and my green grocer is Welsh.  My local pub landlord is Irish and his bar staff are Portuguese and Hungarian.  They are all good in their chosen professions.This is my Britain and long may it remain that way.  We all have our own friends and social circles and as they say.  "It's horses for courses"

[Stargeezr]

The countries still in the EU want Briton back as  they  all know  there will be  no  money  coming from  Italy,  Greece, or  other poor  countries of Europe.  Truth  said.

Geezer

[pitrevie]

Only a week ago an exuberant Nigel Farage told some gathering that if we thought 2016 was bad then 2017 was going to be a damn sight worse. I thought it was the remainers who were pushing that scenario.

[alant]

14 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

It's a world news subject, don't read it if you don't want to!!!

And that answers my question how?

Don't read it if you don't want to!!! Can say that for anything.

As for it being news, more like vested opinion

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, alant said:

And that answers my question how?

Don't read it if you don't want to!!! Can say that for anything.

As for it being news, more like vested opinion

 

The same way Post 31 answers it.

[Scott]

Off-topic post and replies removed.  

[RuamRudy]

2 hours ago, pitrevie said:

Only a week ago an exuberant Nigel Farage told some gathering that if we thought 2016 was bad then 2017 was going to be a damn sight worse. I thought it was the remainers who were pushing that scenario.

 

Maybe the reason he is planning on getting our while he can, and moving to the US?

[pitrevie]

42 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Maybe the reason he is planning on getting our while he can, and moving to the US?

 

Well at least that would be a positive development.