Trump ups US ante on Taiwan, but China has leverage too

[webfact]

Trump ups US ante on Taiwan, but China has leverage too

By MATTHEW PENNINGTON

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump sounds ready to use U.S. policy toward Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from China, but both of the world powers could play at that game.

 

China's rising economic and military clout means its communist leadership has leverage over Washington too. Beijing could erect more obstacles for U.S. companies working in China. It could ramp up tensions in the seas of East Asia. And if differences spike over Taiwan, the Trump administration could face tough choices on whether to send U.S. forces to defend the island that China regards as part of its territory.

 

There's been a delicate diplomatic balance since 1979 when the U.S. shifted formal recognition to China from Taiwan. Under the so-called "one China" policy, Washington acknowledges China's claim to Taiwan but retains close informal ties and supplies the self-governing island with weapons. Trump said Sunday that he didn't feel "bound by a one-China policy," drawing Chinese condemnation.

 

"This was the agreement that underpinned the normalization of U.S.-China relations. If you throw that out the window then China may very well see this as opening up every other issue," said Michael Fuchs, a former U.S. senior diplomat on East Asia.

 

A look at some of the areas in which China could make life difficult for the United States:

 

TAIWAN

If China saw its national interests were threatened by a Trump administration it could squeeze the U.S. ally economically, politically and militarily. China has far superior air and naval power to Taiwan and has hundreds of missiles arrayed against the island. China could ramp up military exercises in the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait to demonstrate its resolve to retake Taiwan by force if necessary.

 

The U.S. has no legal obligation to defend Taiwan but has previously flexed its muscles when the island was under threat. In 1996, the Bill Clinton administration permitted Taiwan's then-leader Lee Teng-hui, who was seen as challenging the one-China policy, to address his alma mater Cornell University. China reacted with missile tests in waters near Taiwan. The U.S. responded by sending two aircraft carrier battle groups and China backed down.

 

Twenty years on, and China is now much stronger and challenges American military pre-eminence. Patrick Cronin at the Center for a New American Security said it would seriously hurt U.S. credibility with its other allies if it failed to stand up for Taiwan after Trump encouraged its current leader Tsai Ing-wen to directly engage with him. It would also risk angering a strongly pro-Taiwan U.S. Congress.

 

TRADE AND INVESTMENT

U.S.-China trade in goods and services reached nearly $660 billion last year, heavily in China's favor. Trump has suggested imposing 45 percent tariffs on Chinese products to correct the imbalance. China, suffering a slowdown in its growth, could retaliate in kind, setting off a trade war that would also hurt the U.S. economy. The Chinese state has heavy involvement in the economy and has previously used trade to punish Japan and the Philippines over territorial disputes.

 

Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said China could choose to buy big-ticket products like airplanes from France-based Airbus instead of U.S.-based Boeing. It could also restrict imports of U.S. goods that it can obtain elsewhere and dial back growing Chinese investment in America.

 

MILITARIZATION IN EAST ASIA

Trump on Sunday accused China of building "a massive fortress" in the South China Sea — a reference to artificial islands Beijing has built in disputed waters there. China could expedite militarization of the islands over U.S. objections. Further north in the East China Sea, Beijing could step up operations by its boats and aircraft challenging Japan's control of other islands which are covered by a U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty.

 

COOPERATING ON NORTH KOREA

Trump also said China was "not helping us at all with North Korea." That's a familiar refrain in Washington. Pyongyang depends on its trade with China for its economic survival. While China has supported stiffer U.N. sanctions and won't endorse a nuclear North Korea, it remains reluctant to impose economic costs that could threaten the survival of Kim Jong Un's government.

 

Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute of Strategic Studies said Beijing still holds the key to applying the kind of pressure that might get Kim to scale back his nuclear and missile programs. "Persuading Beijing to cooperate will be all the more difficult if Trump causes problems over Taiwan," he said.

 

China won't necessarily change tack on other global issues like climate change because of a rift with Washington. But Glaser said there could be a deeper Chinese alignment with Russia in international affairs. She said that would depend upon the evolution of U.S.-Russia relations under Trump, who appears to want warmer ties with Moscow.

 

CYBERSECURITY

The U.S. has long complained that China steals U.S. corporate information to help its own companies. Fuchs said that's "another pressure point" with Washington. Tensions on this issue have ebbed since President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in September 2015 that neither government will support commercial cyber-theft, although U.S. officials have not conclusively determined that it has led to a decline in hacks against U.S. companies.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-12-13

[optad]

Trump cannot handle this.

[craigt3365]

This requires delicate negotiations.  Negotiations that are needed!  But what's not needed is a trade war.  That'd be a disaster for all parties.

[jpinx]

It's rubbish.  China has one aircraft carrier which doesn't work, Even Russia only has one and it needs a tug to go everywhere with it.  If China were to seriously threaten Taiwan, even the Obama administration would squash it in double quick time.  

[craigt3365]

5 minutes ago, jpinx said:

It's rubbish.  China has one aircraft carrier which doesn't work, Even Russia only has one and it needs a tug to go everywhere with it.  If China were to seriously threaten Taiwan, even the Obama administration would squash it in double quick time.  

Let's hope this never happens!  With the proper negotiations, hopefully, progress will be made.  Not sure Trump's the one to do this though!

[williamgeorgeallen]

1 hour ago, jpinx said:

It's rubbish.  China has one aircraft carrier which doesn't work, Even Russia only has one and it needs a tug to go everywhere with it.  If China were to seriously threaten Taiwan, even the Obama administration would squash it in double quick time.  

just what i was going to say. americas military might is massive. their spending is more than the 6 next biggest military spenders combined. as long as america can keep printing or borrowing money to pay for it all they dont have much to worry about.

[does]

1 hour ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

just what i was going to say. americas military might is massive. their spending is more than the 6 next biggest military spenders combined. as long as america can keep printing or borrowing money to pay for it all they dont have much to worry about.

True, as long as America can print money and borrow... But with some $20 trillion in debt, (of which China holds some $3 trillion), isn't there a limit to how much money the US can print/borrow? Could investers say at some point the risk to hold US debt or dollars is getting too big?

[impulse]

1 hour ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

just what i was going to say. americas military might is massive. their spending is more than the 6 next biggest military spenders combined. as long as america can keep printing or borrowing money to pay for it all they dont have much to worry about.

 

There's been millions of containers shipped back and forth over the last 30 or 40 years.  Chinese operatives working in the USA and US operatives with factories all over China.  You figure any of them may have contained cargo that would make an expensive delivery system unnecessary?  

 

Military might?  That's getting ready for the last war.

[chilli42]

2 hours ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

just what i was going to say. americas military might is massive. their spending is more than the 6 next biggest military spenders combined. as long as america can keep printing or borrowing money to pay for it all they dont have much to worry about.

 

Hmmm, it's a very long boat ride from the US to Taiwan and a very short flight across the Taiwan straights.

[geriatrickid]

3 hours ago, jpinx said:

It's rubbish.  China has one aircraft carrier which doesn't work, Even Russia only has one and it needs a tug to go everywhere with it.  If China were to seriously threaten Taiwan, even the Obama administration would squash it in double quick time.  

 

China doesn't need an aircraft carrier to invade and  destroy Taiwan. China has thousands of misisles that are easy to launch and can be in Taiwan in minutes. The USA under Trump will not rush to anyone's assistance. Bad for Trump's investments.

[elgordo38]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

U.S.-China trade in goods and services reached nearly $660 billion last year, heavily in China's favor.

Years ago my granddaddy used to call this selling the farm. 

[elgordo38]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Tensions on this issue have ebbed since President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in September 2015 that neither government will support commercial cyber-theft, although U.S. officials have not conclusively determined that it has led to a decline in hacks against U.S. companies.

If you believe Mr. Xi I have some swampland in Florida for sale no not Washington Florida. You can drain the swamp and build condo's.

[elgordo38]

5 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Let's hope this never happens!  With the proper negotiations, hopefully, progress will be made.  Not sure Trump's the one to do this though!

Are you saying he is like a bull in a china shop. He will never best Mr. Xi. When sitting down to negotiations with Mr. Xi leave your valuables at home. He will pick you clean. 

[55Jay]

I watched his full-interview with Chris Wallace on TrumpForce 1.  He's still shallow on all this annoying policy stuff, but it sure did resonate when he said he wouldn't be controlled and told what to say, or not to say, by China, or anyone else.  That's a significant shift in paradigm but we've seen already there's a gap between what Trump says and what he actually does.

 

 

Edited December 13, 2016 by 55Jay

[elgordo38]

9 minutes ago, 55Jay said:

I watched his full-interview with Chris Wallace on TrumpForce 1.  He's still shallow on all this annoying policy stuff, but it sure did resonate when he said he wouldn't be controlled and told what to say, or not to say, by China, or anyone else.  That's a significant shift in paradigm but we've seen already there's a gap between what Trump says and what he actually does.

 

 

He now admits all those threats of throwing Hillary in jail were nothing but campaign rhetoric. Makes one wonder how much of his other "Make America Great Again" were just rhetoric. Its like peeling back layers of an onion makes one cry. 

Edited December 13, 2016 by elgordo38

[jpinx]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

 

China doesn't need an aircraft carrier to invade and  destroy Taiwan. China has thousands of misisles that are easy to launch and can be in Taiwan in minutes. The USA under Trump will not rush to anyone's assistance. Bad for Trump's investments.

Indeed Trump has significant investments in property in China, which begs the question of why he (or his aide) stuck his neck out over Taiwan.  Trump is worth following - even if it's just out of curiosity about what he'll do next !!  :)  

 

You're totally right -- China could raze Taiwan to the ground before the first counter-strike missile arrived from USA (or anywhere else).  That's what makes Taiwan so vulnerable and nervous.  I'm not familiar with the details, but there must be some special trade deals between Taiwan and China to keep things from blowing up.  China prefers conquest by trading over conquest by invasion every time.

[jpinx]

9 minutes ago, 55Jay said:

I watched his full-interview with Chris Wallace on TrumpForce 1.  He's still shallow on all this annoying policy stuff, but it sure did resonate when he said he wouldn't be controlled and told what to say, or not to say, by China, or anyone else.  That's a significant shift in paradigm but we've seen already there's a gap between what Trump says and what he actually does.

 

 

No need to single out Donald -- all politicians are only as reliable as their last breath,,,,, 

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

The U.S. has no legal obligation to defend Taiwan

And unlikely to do so.

The US had a legal obligation to defend the Ukraine against Russian aggression and refused.

[Briggsy]

Trump's gonna build a wall.

His supporters go wild.

Oh, he's changed his mind.

His supporters are quickly distracted by..

 

Trump's gonna lock Hillary up.

His supporters go wild.

Oh, he's changed his mind.

His supporters are quickly distracted by..

 

Trump's gonna ban Muslims.

His supporters go wild.

Oh, he's changed his mind.

His supporters are quickly distracted by..

 

Trump's gonna show those Chinese who is boss.

His supporters go wild.

Oh, he's changed his mind.

His supporters are quickly distracted by..

 

Anyone see a pattern here.

[tonbridgebrit]

6 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

This requires delicate negotiations.  Negotiations that are needed!  But what's not needed is a trade war.  That'd be a disaster for all parties.

 

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

 

China doesn't need an aircraft carrier to invade and  destroy Taiwan. China has thousands of misisles that are easy to launch and can be in Taiwan in minutes. The USA under Trump will not rush to anyone's assistance. Bad for Trump's investments.

 

I do have a smirk on my face when those who hate China but supported Hillary Clinton, say their stuff. 

Let's get real here. It's Trump who is going to play tough with China. Trump is going to partially block the Chinese goods entering into America, and hurt China. This is something that Hillary would never do.

But Trump will do something that Obama was already preparing for, something Hillary was certain to do. Washington is going to do a "big bang" arms deal with Taiwan in the not so distant future.  This means a massive sale of modern weapons to Taiwan, generating billions of dollars. Actually, tens of billions of dollars worth. This actually angers the Hillary supporters who are anti-China.  Why ? Because it's Trump who is going to get the credit for this massive deal, a deal that generates a serious profit for America's defence contractors.

 

[55Jay]

17 minutes ago, jpinx said:

No need to single out Donald -- all politicians are only as reliable as their last breath,,,,, 

True.  Things are a lot different once you actually sit in the chair and get your feet under the desk.

 

 

Edited December 13, 2016 by 55Jay

[simple1]

18 minutes ago, jpinx said:

there must be some special trade deals between Taiwan and China to keep things from blowing up.

 

 

 

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/05/news/china-taiwan-trade-economy/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Framework_Agreement

[jpinx]

21 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

And unlikely to do so.

The US had a legal obligation to defend the Ukraine against Russian aggression and refused.

There's no oil in Crimea

[ilostmypassword]

11 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

 

 

I do have a smirk on my face when those who hate China but supported Hillary Clinton, say their stuff. 

Let's get real here. It's Trump who is going to play tough with China. Trump is going to partially block the Chinese goods entering into America, and hurt China. This is something that Hillary would never do.

But Trump will do something that Obama was already preparing for, something Hillary was certain to do. Washington is going to do a "big bang" arms deal with Taiwan in the not so distant future.  This means a massive sale of modern weapons to Taiwan, generating billions of dollars. Actually, tens of billions of dollars worth. This actually angers the Hillary supporters who are anti-China.  Why ? Because it's Trump who is going to get the credit for this massive deal, a deal that generates a serious profit for America's defence contractors.

 

I'm assuming you have some serious evidence for this and have taken into account that Taiwan already has a huge defense budget in relation to the size of its economy and buys most of its weapons from the USA. Please disclose your source of information about this impending sale.

[jpinx]

6 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

 

 

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/05/news/china-taiwan-trade-economy/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Framework_Agreement

Thanks  -- :)   ....and

"....... Taiwan is the United States’ ninth largest trading partner, and the United States is Taiwan’s second largest trading partner........."

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35855.htm

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, jpinx said:

There's no oil in Crimea

Crimea has Black Sea offshore oil & gas production facilities that became part of the Russia's annexation.

[dunroaming]

The initial thought would be "Bull in a China shop" but with Trump it is far more like "A three year old with a box of matches in a room full of petrol cans".

[jpinx]

3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Crimea has Black Sea offshore oil & gas production facilities that became part of the Russia's annexation.

 

I stand corrected   but this does not explain why USA didn't honour it's obligations to Ukraine/Crimea

 

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Eyes-Crimeas-Oil-and-Gas-Reserves.html

[craigt3365]

3 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

 

 

I do have a smirk on my face when those who hate China but supported Hillary Clinton, say their stuff. 

Let's get real here. It's Trump who is going to play tough with China. Trump is going to partially block the Chinese goods entering into America, and hurt China. This is something that Hillary would never do.

But Trump will do something that Obama was already preparing for, something Hillary was certain to do. Washington is going to do a "big bang" arms deal with Taiwan in the not so distant future.  This means a massive sale of modern weapons to Taiwan, generating billions of dollars. Actually, tens of billions of dollars worth. This actually angers the Hillary supporters who are anti-China.  Why ? Because it's Trump who is going to get the credit for this massive deal, a deal that generates a serious profit for America's defence contractors.

 

I hope you are not referring to me.  I didn't support Hillary.  Nor Trump.  And I don't hate China.  Just don't like some things they are doing.

 

The elections are over.  It's not longer "us versus them".  We're all in this together.  The entire world.  For better or worse! LOL

[elgordo38]

6 hours ago, 55Jay said:

That's a significant shift in paradigm but we've seen already there's a gap between what Trump says and what he actually does.

An ever widening gap and after January 20th will become a chasm. It should be one hellva ride starting January 21st, 2017