In what ways would Thailand be affected economically if World War 3 starts?

[midas]

I keep wondering about this question as the war drums beat louder every day.

One immediate effect I could foresee early in a war would be a dramatic shortage of fuel particularly  if Iran becomes involved and carries out its long-standing threat to close the Strait of Hormuz through which on average, 14 crude oil tankers pass through each day carrying an estimated 17 million barrels which is more than a third of the world’s seaborne oil. 

 

Quote

Former hedge fund manager Martin Armstrong, who is an expert on economic and political cycles, says, “You have to understand what makes war even take place? It does not unfold when everybody is fat and happy. Simple as that. You turn the economy down, and that’s when you get war. It’s the way politics works.”

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/is-world-war-the-twisted-cure-for-a-doomed-economy-signals-for-war-are-fiscal_04192017

[Rob13]

Judging from WW2 and VN, my guess is they'd give aid and rights of port and air strips etc, to the country with the most influence on them.

 

Japan has built alot of public works projects in throughtout Thailand, the US still helps out militarily. My guess is the US  and it's asian allies will take care of LOS. 

 

The big question is how will the Chinese figure into it all.

Edited April 20, 2017 by Rob13

[midas]

31 minutes ago, Rob13 said:

Judging from WW2 and VN, my guess is they'd give aid and rights of port and air strips etc, to the country with the most influence on them.

 

Japan has built alot of public works projects in throughtout Thailand, the US still helps out militarily. My guess is the US  and it's asian allies will take care of LOS. 

 

The big question is how will the Chinese figure into it all.

Interesting question indeed!

I can't see them cosying up to America this time because geopolitics has changed so much since WW2 and VN and Thailand's relationship with USA today involves millions of visitors coming from China and infrastructure projects like high-speed rail.

Just because China has turned its back on North Korea doesn't mean it's turned its back on its relations with Russia and what's left of the decimated ambitions of BRICS so I don't think they will upset China by supporting USA.

In fact the Wall Street Journal wrote about when this shift started to happen in 2015

 

Thailand Tilts Away From the U.S.

The military snubs its longtime ally to buy Chinese subs.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thailand-tilts-away-from-the-u-s-1435678360

Edited April 20, 2017 by midas

[Rob13]

Yeah, i think alot of small east asian countries may be thinking these days that China's not so bad. They're good trsding partners and they're predictable. If a war were to break out today, going with China might be a better looking option than relying on the US.

 

I think Japan would drop their self defense policy and be a big player in the region. Hard to imagine in peace time,but if the PRC was involved SK might align themselves with Japan( and the US)against the NK and Beijing. It'd be a scary war whatever happens.

 

The way trump is though you gotta wonder how many allied countries would turn their back on.the US.

[reenatinnakor]

A better question would be how do we defend ourselves from a zombie outbreak? Or an alien invasion? Both of these are more likely than ww3 breaking out.

Sent from my LG-H990 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Ace of Pop]

It would have to print the flags or the protagonists ,like it did during WW2.Oh ,we were on your side realy.[emoji572]️


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[midas]

1 hour ago, reenatinnakor said:

A better question would be how do we defend ourselves from a zombie outbreak? Or an alien invasion? Both of these are more likely than ww3 breaking out.

Sent from my LG-H990 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

nope...........definitely haven’t seen any evidence of zombies or aliens but have definitely seen unwarranted and blatant aggression based on lies and propaganda by a country looking to start a fight - now with Russia / Iran  / North Korea all at the same time!

But  maybe you’re just not very good at joining the dots

[DUS]

If WW III were to break out I certainly wouldn't give a to$$ about the economic impact on Thailand, tbh. 

[DGS1244]

22 hours ago, reenatinnakor said:

A better question would be how do we defend ourselves from a zombie outbreak? Or an alien invasion? Both of these are more likely than ww3 breaking out.

Sent from my LG-H990 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Agreed, WWlll will be total and nothing left.

[Blackheart1916]

19 hours ago, DUS said:

If WW III were to break out I certainly wouldn't give a to$$ about the economic impact on Thailand, tbh. 

Yes I would be concerned less about the economic fallout and more about the radioactive fallout.

[Suradit69]

Quote

In what ways would Thailand be affected economically if World War 3 starts?

If it involves nuclear weapons being used, I would think the economic and population impact would bear little resemblance to WW2 or the American war in Vietnam. It's unlikely to depend that much on "boots on the ground" at least initially. Some people above are thinking in terms of armies of men shooting at each other from ditches. Even in "minor" skirmishes or attempts to defeat terrorists ... missiles into Syria or bombs dropped on Afghanistan ... it's hardly comparable to the style of warfare in WW2 and the O/P asked about a "World War."

 

With Comrades Kim Jong Donald and Kim Jong Un calling the shots, thinking in terms of battles fought  50 or 70 years ago is unrealistic ... old men fighting the last war.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Blackheart1916]

17 minutes ago, Suradit69 said:

If it involves nuclear weapons being used, I would think the economic and population impact would bear little resemblance to WW2 or the American war in Vietnam. It's unlikely to depend that much on "boots on the ground" at least initially. Some people above are thinking in terms of armies of men shooting at each other from ditches. Even in "minor" skirmishes or attempts to defeat terrorists ... missiles into Syria or bombs dropped on Afghanistan ... it's hardly comparable to the style of warfare in WW2 and the O/P asked about a "World War."

 

With Comrades Kim Jong Donald and Kim Jong Un calling the shots, thinking in terms of battles fought  50 or 70 years ago is unrealistic ... old men fighting the last war.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Realistically north Korea's attempt would be over before it has begun. All depends on what big brother China's reaction is.

[SpeakeasyThai]

The question itself is redundant as we all will be nuked.

[F4UCorsair]

23 hours ago, Rob13 said:

Yeah, i think alot of small east asian countries may be thinking these days that China's not so bad. They're good trsding partners and they're predictable. If a war were to break out today, going with China might be a better looking option than relying on the US.

 

I think Japan would drop their self defense policy and be a big player in the region. Hard to imagine in peace 

 

The way trump is though you gotta wonder how many allied countries would turn their back on.the US.

None would.

 

Some leaders may not agree entirely, but they're not stupid.

[F4UCorsair]

22 minutes ago, Blackheart1916 said:

Realistically north Korea's attempt would be over before it has begun. All depends on what big brother China's reaction is.

China no more wants North Korea to have a greater nuclear capability than the US does.

My view is that if NK doesn't fall in line, they'll be hit hard (killing Kim Jong Idiot), preventing any retaliation, and China will 'colonize' NK, with the US's blessing.

[midas]

21 minutes ago, Blackheart1916 said:

Realistically north Korea's attempt would be over before it has begun. All depends on what big brother China's reaction is.

 

On the contrary USA should be worried that North Korea could do something to it that I don't think China would

 

Quote

 

 What is not being discussed is a much bigger and more imminent threat that makes action imperative, an existential one for the United States. 

The nightmare scenario of an America sent back centuries in time before electricity, refrigeration, and smart phones has grown unnervingly closer with the presence of two North Korean satellites with orbits over a blissfully unaware American populace and an Obama administration that was indifferent to the apocalyptic threat of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.

On Feb. 7, 2016, North Korea launched a second satellite, the KMS-4, to join their KMS-3 satellite launched in December of 2012. In an article in the Washington Times on April 24, 2016, R. James Woolsey,  former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Peter Vincent Fry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security as well as director of the Nuclear Strategy Forum, both congressional advisory boards, warned of the dangers of an apocalyptic EMP attack that these and similar satellites pose:

Both satellites now are in south polar orbits, evading many U.S. missile defense radars and flying over the United States from the south, where our defenses are limited. Both satellites -- if nuclear armed -- could make an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that could blackout the U.S. electric grid for months or years, thereby killing millions.

 

 

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/04/could_north_korea_destroy_the_us.html

 

[midas]

 

According to this computer simulation while fires would be raging in some parts of the world Thailand would have about 5 days of “ normal “ living before it starts to become affected.

 

http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/hundredfiftytonessmoke/

[little mary sunshine]

Nice being old,sometimes.  Really don't 

give a sh**...all speculation, anyway!!!

[alant]

I think Thailand would be viewed as the closest US territory to Korea by the North, sitting duck 

[midas]

10 minutes ago, little mary sunshine said:

Nice being old,sometimes.  Really don't 

give a sh**...all speculation, anyway!!!

It's only a case of hope for the best but prepare for the worst

[cruisemonkey]

Pattaya will become a den of iniquity and the economy will boom boom as soldiers on leave seek to satisfy their carnal desires.

 

Wait a sec ??? ... Oh, nevermind.

Edited April 21, 2017 by cruisemonkey

[hansnl]

23 hours ago, reenatinnakor said:

A better question would be how do we defend ourselves from a zombie outbreak? Or an alien invasion? Both of these are more likely than ww3 breaking out.

Sent from my LG-H990 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Exactly the thought pattern before WW1 and WW2.

Difference now there a few states like NK and Iran that have no compunction with others and their own, and are blinded by power and/or religion.

[funandsuninbangkok]

China vs US

 

we hit them high via Japan 

 

they come low through Thailand

 

lots dead, Manchuko resurrects, 

 

Vietnam back into Kampuchia

 

Sino Civil War

 

Taiwan / N Korea graveyards

 

besides that, not much

[fletchsmile]

Economic impact would be low down on my list of priorities.

 

What could be highly amusing though is nuclear fallout rendering people's stashes of gold radioactive so that no-one wants to take it off you LOL

 

Similarly tin foil hats and cans of baked beans may not be all they're cracked up to be

 

 

[Berkshire]

It really depends if it's a conventional war or a nuclear one, and between whom.  Wars have been going on in the Middle East for some time and most of us are unaffected.  Even the price of oil hasn't been affected. 

 

The only wars that would impact Thailand to a large degree would be a regional one.  Which means N. Korea.  Kim Jong Fatboy will make a lot of noise, but won't do anything.  He just wants to stay in power.  I would think he knows that any sort of nuclear engagement would mean the end of his regime.  He'll be incinerated.  

 

But if he's provoked...who knows.  This is where having a competent, level-headed, and even-tempered President in the US is so important.  Unfortunately, we don't have that right now.    

 

[cyberfarang]

There would be lots of repercussions on foreigners living in Thailand.

 

If Thailand decided to back China and Russia against the west, it would make life very uncomfortable for westerners here. There would be worldwide economic chaos, share and investments would drop to rock bottom, many banking institutions could collapse, plus as some posters have mentioned, the threat of radio active fallout within the SE Asian regions.

 

Put it this way; no one will benefit if this dispute escalates and pray hope it doesn`t happen.

[PeCeDe]

Interesting question, and one most of us shy away from, if only because of the horrifying scenes that cross through all our minds... That is why it's often referred to  as "the Apocalypse". I know from a practical point of view my income would come to a complete and immediate stop, and I don't believe any amount of current assets, even if held here in LOS would be of value for very long due to human nature, massive hyperinflation, gouging, shortages, public mayhem etc. etc. There's an interesting book written back in 1957, envisioning just such a collapse, it's called "On the Beach" and takes place in Australia immediately after just such a conflagration in the Northern Hemisphere. (WWIII), I remember being terrified reading the book when I was 10 or 11 years old, nothings changed.

 

If you're interested  here's the Wiki on it,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)  

[blazes]

58 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

China vs US

 

we hit them high via Japan 

 

they come low through Thailand

 

lots dead, Manchuko resurrects, 

 

Vietnam back into Kampuchia

 

Sino Civil War

 

Taiwan / N Korea graveyards

 

besides that, not much

 

As Basil Fawlty said to the Public Health inspector:  "apart from that, everything ok, then?"

[cyberfarang]

7 minutes ago, PeCeDe said:

Interesting question, and one most of us shy away from, if only because of the horrifying scenes that cross through all our minds... That is why it's often referred to  as "the Apocalypse". I know from a practical point of view my income would come to a complete and immediate stop, and I don't believe any amount of current assets, even if held here in LOS would be of value for very long due to human nature, massive hyperinflation, gouging, shortages, public mayhem etc. etc. There's an interesting book written back in 1957, envisioning just such a collapse, it's called "On the Beach" and takes place in Australia immediately after just such a conflagration in the Northern Hemisphere. (WWIII), I remember being terrified reading the book when I was 10 or 11 years old, nothings changed.

 

If you're interested  here's the Wiki on it,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)  

On The Beach, was also made into a film that starred Gregory Peck. Remember watching that. In the event of a full scale war, no one will benefit.

 

 

[midas]

6 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

As Basil Fawlty said to the Public Health inspector:  "apart from that, everything ok, then?"

and based on some replies i was thinking " don.t mention the war " !!