All major political players share one dilemma: Public distrust

[webfact]

OPINION

All major political players share one dilemma: Public distrust 

By Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

 

BANGKOK: -- Nobody can say when the next general election will take place, despite an official timeline that promises we should be able to cast our ballots once again before the end of next year. 

 

But one veteran politician, Tavorn Sanniam, is already predicting the likely outcome of the next poll: the Pheu Thai Party will win around 200 seats and the Democrats 150, with the rest going to the middle-sized and small parties.

 

But holding an election won’t necessarily mean we see a transfer of power. Tavorn, a former executive of the Democrat Party and an ex-leader of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), declared in an interview with the Thai Post over the weekend:

“I am 1,000 per cent [sic] confident that the existing powers-that-be will continue to be the government for the next five to eight years, no matter whether the current prime minister is an MP or an outsider.”

 

Doesn’t that sound a bit strange? What’s the point of having a post-coup election that changes nothing in the political ecosystem?

Tavorn’s analysis is likely based on a facts-based assessment of possible post-election scenarios.

 

For one thing, the new constitution provides for 250 senators to be virtually handpicked by the current Cabinet led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. This practically guarantees the formation of a coalition government based on whoever controls this chunk of parliamentary seats.

 

“I don’t know who the prime minister will be,” Tavorn said, “but I know that the current power-holders who have 250 votes in their hands could form the government just by pulling in MPs from various parties, which will then decide who the new prime minister should be.”

 

The fact that the new charter leaves the way open for a non-MP, or “outsider”, to head the new government has led political pundits to remark that “The more things change, the more things remain the same.” 

 

The magic number for anyone seeking to form the new government is 251 – the quantity of MPs in the House needed to obtain a simple majority in Parliament.

 

But what if that exercise fails? What if MPs from certain parties refuse to play ball? The veteran politician had a ready answer to that question: “They can just dissolve Parliament – and ask the people to cast their ballots again.”

 

If that sounds a “pragmatic” analysis of what lies in store for Thai politics in the near future, that’s probably because Tavorn’s direct boss, Suthep Thaugsuban, had just come out in support of PM Prayut continuing in office after the election.

 

Tavorn’s interpretation won’t jibe with those who want the military top brass firmly back in the barracks once the election produces a new government. 

 

Though Tavorn graded the three-year performance of the current government at just 55 per cent, PDRC leaders seem ready to accept the military’s presence in politics even after the next election.

 

The PDRC, whose leadership mostly comprises former Democrat Party executives, seems to have parted ways with the Democrat Party under Abhisit Vejjajiva for good. Rumours of an attempted PDRC coup against the current party leadership remain unconfirmed, but there is little doubt that there is no love lost between Suthep and Abhisit.

 

Meanwhile Pheu Thai Party executives have kept a low profile while they try to figure out a way to win big in the upcoming election, whenever it finally takes place. Their biggest priority is to find someone who can lead the party into a new and more challenging battle now that former premier Yingluck Shinawatra, sidelined by a series of court cases over the party’s controversial rice pledging scheme, has effectively been crippled as Pheu Thai’s figurehead.

 

In the wake of a pervasive public fatigue with politics, none of the major players in the political arena is capable of winning a clear mandate from voters.

 

The dilemma is clear: The military can’t continue in power for ever, but the politicians have yet to regain the trust that would spur the public to demand en masse a return to genuine democracy.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/opinion/suthichaiyoon/30316252

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-05-25

[trogers]

Need only to look at the mentality of electorate majority to conclude the kind of political system and characters would result...

 

Only an electorate with integrity gets politicians with integrity.

[yellowboat]

35 minutes ago, webfact said:

Doesn’t that sound a bit strange? What’s the point of having a post-coup election that changes nothing in the political ecosystem?

The down side of allowing the army to seize power.  As dissatisfying as things seemed before the coup, things might look a whole more dissatisfying in the future. 

[darksidedog]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The dilemma is clear: The military can’t continue in power for ever, but the politicians have yet to regain the trust that would spur the public to demand en masse a return to genuine democracy.

And therein lies the problem. Much as people dislike the Junta, the Political parties have all behaved so childishly and selfish in the past, that no one seems in a rush to have any of them back in power.

[Stargeezr]

I guess the politicians have only them selves and the former government leaders of the past to blame for the current situation.

  I hope that some where in the future Thailand can actually have a democratic government that can function without military

over site, but the Thaksin years showed what happens if you let a rich civilian get too much power.

[Classic Ray]

The only way to regain public trust would be to have a truly independent and powerful Anti-Corruption Commission backed by a similar police force, both ready to stop "politicians" both civilian and military/police, from using their positions of power simply to line their pockets.

 

But I have noticed a culture of acceptance among Thais where the rich, famous and powerful are accorded respect that would not be given in Western culture. Most people just wish they were in the club. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the justice system, where not only are you not allowed to name and shame even truthful bad behaviour, for fear of lésé-majesté or defamation prosecution, but the elite get a pass for punishment themselves, Red Bull, Mercedes, killer of nine in a van etc etc.

 

Payment of blood money to relatives to avoid or reduce punishment e.g. actress Anna, is another evil that needs eliminating. Civil compensation should be separated from criminal prosecution.

 

Until ordinary Thais make it clear that they are not just queueing up to take their own place at the corruption trough, but genuinely want true democracy with checks and balances, no progress will be made.

[hansnl]

4 hours ago, trogers said:

Need only to look at the mentality of electorate majority to conclude the kind of political system and characters would result...

 

Only an electorate with integrity gets politicians with integrity.

As long as any country will be hindered by a one party majority, the minority is worthless and powerless.

And not only in Parliament.

A government formed by a coalition will better represent all the people.

[yooyoo]

The Thais have an inherent cultural deficiency and need a General to control them.... when left up to themselves all try to steal more then neighbour.....they are, like many African countries, unfit for democracy!

[Lemonltr]

32 minutes ago, Classic Ray said:

The only way to regain public trust would be to have a truly independent and powerful Anti-Corruption Commission backed by a similar police force, both ready to stop "politicians" both civilian and military/police, from using their positions of power simply to line their pockets.

 

But I have noticed a culture of acceptance among Thais where the rich, famous and powerful are accorded respect that would not be given in Western culture. Most people just wish they were in the club. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the justice system, where not only are you not allowed to name and shame even truthful bad behaviour, for fear of lésé-majesté or defamation prosecution, but the elite get a pass for punishment themselves, Red Bull, Mercedes, killer of nine in a van etc etc.

 

Payment of blood money to relatives to avoid or reduce punishment e.g. actress Anna, is another evil that needs eliminating. Civil compensation should be separated from criminal prosecution.

 

Until ordinary Thais make it clear that they are not just queueing up to take their own place at the corruption trough, but genuinely want true democracy with checks and balances, no progress will be made.

Unfortunately it's ingrained to be subservient. Few, understandably,dare to be outspoken. Police reform would change the country but probably will never happen. 

What might give the people more power is to allow the formation of genuine Trade Unions as in the West instead of company Unions, but I suspect that this will never be allowed.

[worgeordie]

I am sure they will find public trust,when they start handing out

500 Thb notes,

regards worgeordie

[Eric Loh]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

But one veteran politician, Tavorn Sanniam, is already predicting the likely outcome of the next poll: the Pheu Thai Party will win around 200 seats and the Democrats 150, with the rest going to the middle-sized and small parties.

 

I am suprised that Tavorn who is a close to the politics in the Dem Party predict only 150 seats. The MMA system main beneficiary is the Dem Party and they should win more than their 2011 election of 159 seats by virtue of higher share of the party list proportionate representation vote. Maybe he know something will happen to the Dem Party which we don't know. Perhaps a mass defection to another party; likely Suthep's new party. Anyway, Chart Thai Pattana, BJT and Puea Pandin will be the king maker. 

[jerojero]

Need only to look at the mentality of electorate majority to conclude the kind of political system and characters would result...  

Only an electorate with integrity gets politicians with integrity.

 

Ummm...what does that imply about the USA? And can't say Thailand gets politicians they deserve when military forcibly takes power away from the politicians every decade!

 

 

 

[Bob12345]

1 hour ago, jerojero said:

And can't say Thailand gets politicians they deserve when military forcibly takes power away from the politicians every decade!

I think you can say that.

No matter which party you support (green, red, yellow), you can't say that previous governments were very trustworthy or showed integrity. No matter the color, there is always a criminal at the top.

 

And an army can't take power, forcibly or not, when the general population does not allow it.

Most western countries have a history of people rising against their surpressors and fighting for their freedom.

In Thailand people sit behind their teewee and don't care what happens, only when they can earn a few hundred baht they go out to vote or protest.

 

"Giving" the Thai people democracy will not work, they will have to get out of their chair and fight for it if they really want it.

And with enough casualties they will remember the sacrifices they and their ancestors made, and will stand up against anybody now and in the future trying to push them down.

 

They got exactly what they deserved!

[elgordo38]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

but the politicians have yet to regain the trust that would spur the public to demand en masse a return to genuine democracy.

I am turning different countries in the world over in my mind to come up with a genuine democracy but am coming up short. Give me another year or two. 

[elgordo38]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

“I am 1,000 per cent [sic] confident that the existing powers-that-be will continue to be the government for the next five to eight years, no matter whether the current prime minister is an MP or an outsider.”

 

Give this man a ceegar. 

[Eric Loh]

5 minutes ago, elgordo38 said:

I am turning different countries in the world over in my mind to come up with a genuine democracy but am coming up short. Give me another year or two. 

You never find a genuine or perfect democracy because there really no definition or a term of reference. As the saying goes, you will never find a better replacement than people freedom to chose who they want as leaders. 

[jesimps]

7 hours ago, trogers said:

Need only to look at the mentality of electorate majority to conclude the kind of political system and characters would result...

 

Only an electorate with integrity gets politicians with integrity.

Codswallop! In any democracy, the electorate gets politicians who receive the most votes. 

What are you proposing, an integrity test at the polling booths?

 

Typical junta fanboy post.

 

[trogers]

14 minutes ago, jesimps said:

Codswallop! In any democracy, the electorate gets politicians who receive the most votes. 

What are you proposing, an integrity test at the polling booths?

 

Typical junta fanboy post.

 

Don't call elections, Democracy.

 

Saddam Hussein got over 90% of the votes every time... Was that Democracy?

[elgordo38]

52 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

You never find a genuine or perfect democracy because there really no definition or a term of reference. As the saying goes, you will never find a better replacement than people freedom to chose who they want as leaders. 

Your right but governments are doing their best to choke that off as well.