Repeat of 2011 Thai flood disaster ruled out

[sujoop]

4 minutes ago, sujoop said:

58 minutes ago, sujoop said:

1 hour ago, leftorright said:

3 hours ago, sujoop said:

Unlike in 2011 at least the Govt isn't ordering the dams to NOT release water:
 

2011: I ordered a delay in the release of water from dam : Theera

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut yesterday acknowledged that the controversial decision to delay the release of water from the country's major dams had been made by the government.. “I admit ordering a delay in the release of water into the plains areas so that farmers could harvest their crops first,” he said.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/aec/30169695

 

Related: Thailand: Crisis in Thai Rice Pledging Scheme

The Thai government, led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, implemented the rice pledging scheme immediately after the 2011 election

http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/thailand-crisis-in-thai-rice-pledging-scheme/

 

Thankfully, there's no rice scheme/scam 'priority' this year either, thus no reason to purposely order dams NOT to do preventative controlled draining. Also thankfully, last week the current Govt announced they would be doing controlled release of dams in advance of this week's downpours. Thus, due to El Nino departing, a very heavy rainy season 'could' still cause floods but at least we know the current Govt is being pro-active, versus the criminally negligent / purposely non-active Govt in the past.

 

 

An interesting question is exactly when he issued that order. Theera (Chartthaipattana Party) was minister of Agriculture in both the Abhisit and the Yingluck cabinets. Yingluck’s cabinet was sworn in on August 10, 2011. The floods started to develop at the end of August, early September. The dams obviously were opened quite soon into Yingluck’s watch, but when was that – in hindsight – fatal order made for the dams to hold water: before August 10 still under Abhisit’s watch, or after August 10 under Yingluck’s?

Yingluck's 'thrown under the bus' Agri Minister clearly states he ordered dams NOT to release water in 2011. This was in effect from handover as they wanted the Rice scheme/scam to kick off more than they were interested about or thinking about floods (ie: as the Minister states, they did not want to release water which would wipe out the additional rice crop - which the Abhisit Govt had advised against planting). And yes the dams were rising rapidly due to previously unusually heavy rain storms so it was imperative that the dams release, NOT ordered shut. Unfortunately the dams kept rising of course and even more storms came and finally in Oct the Yingluck Govt had no choice but to order the dams to drain into already overflowing rivers or the dams themselves may have suffered structural collapse.

 

48 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

I thought the allegation was that the main beneficiary/person who ordered the delay in release of water was those seeking additional rice crops in an area controlled by Banharn the leader of the Charthaipattana party, the very same party who controlled the Agri Ministry who you claimed Minister was thrown under the bus by Yingluck?

As you wish however, only 1 of those Govt's had a TOP priority  of kicking off the rice scam/scheme and the reason given by Yingluck Govt  for ordering dams shut was to get that off-season crop (which Abihist advised against) in Sept/Oct to kick off the rice scheme.

The other TOP priority for the Yingluck Govt even in the midst of massive floods (or some might say 'under the radar' of massive floods) was getting amnesty for big bro:
 

16 NOVEMBER 2011
Thai cabinet 'endorses Thaksin amnesty plan'
"Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was not present at the meeting and all officials were asked to leave the room when the issue was deliberated"
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2011/11/2011111672939589176.html

Note Yingluck was always absent despite heading both the rice scheme and flood control committees and being PM when cabinet passed amnesty for big bro when much of Thailand was under water. So whether Yingluck & her Govt dropped the ball or were willfully distracted you decide.

 

1 minute ago, smutcakes said:

I thought the flood was in 2011 and the Coup in 2014? which amnesty was passed in 2011. Sorry i am very confused.

That was the FIRST of several attempts to get amnesty for Thaksin, that one under the cloak of floods in 2011.

16 NOVEMBER 2011 Thai cabinet 'endorses Thaksin amnesty plan'
"Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was not present at the meeting and all officials were asked to leave the room when the issue was deliberated"
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2011/11/2011111672939589176.html
 

So, to re-cap Yingluck's first Govt TOP priorities in 2011 :
 

1) Launch Rice Scheme (thus ordering dams shut to protect off-season crop harvest in Sept/Oct)
2) Amnesty for Thaksin

 

You may be forgiven for being confused as both these priorities were repeated throughout Yingluck's Govt causing massive damage from floods, to National coffers, to the very fabric of Thai civil society and ultimately, to the Yingluck Govt itself... Thaksin thinks, Yingluck does and we are still living the unfortunate results.

As for the OP, despite many short-comings, at least the current Govt isn't ordering the dams shut, rather the opposite. We may still see more floods this year as El Nino departs thus a heavy rainy season is likely, however, it will not be because of dams being ordered shut.

[simoh1490]

I only have two words to say on this subject, "monkey cheeks".

[mtls2005]

You may be forgiven for being confused as both these priorities were repeated throughout Yingluck's Govt causing massive damage from floods, to National coffers, to the very fabric of Thai civil society and ultimately, to the Yingluck Govt itself... Thaksin thinks, Yingluck does and we are still living the unfortunate results.

 

 

So you're saying the Junta has been in power for three years and "we are still living the unfortunate results"?

 

"... causing massive damage to the very fabric of Thai civil society"? Loosen your grip on that purse.

 

Geez, give it a rest. She's gone, they're done, The Junta will make sure they never rise again. Now it's time to stop looking back, and figure out how to govern, or rule.

 

(I do understand the need to have someone to blame.)

[bannork]

This is a good link for checking the level of water in reservoirs.

http://www.thaiwater.net/web/index.php/en.html

It's worth remembering the capacity of the reservoirs too. For example the reservoir supplying Bangkok, Pa Sak, is only 25% full,  but it's shallow, although very wide. Once the water from upcountry really starts flowing it quickly fills up. whilst the capacity of Bhumibol dam is ten times greater so it hardly ever reaches full capacity. Indeed, has it ever?

[sawadee1947]

Following the disaster in 2011 Yingluck wanted to build a ring system of canals round BKK. The "Yellows" were shouting "too expensive" and cancelled the plans. And what did our so intelligent PM do? NOTHING. Let it flood. His entourage got probably nice houses and never get wet feet.

[sawadee1947]

If you would use the money what you want to spend for the subs just to build some canals you would show that you love your people.....

Or you would like to try the subs next year in BKK??????????

[sujoop]

3 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

You may be forgiven for being confused as both these priorities were repeated throughout Yingluck's Govt causing massive damage from floods, to National coffers, to the very fabric of Thai civil society and ultimately, to the Yingluck Govt itself... Thaksin thinks, Yingluck does and we are still living the unfortunate results.

 

 

So you're saying the Junta has been in power for three years and "we are still living the unfortunate results"?

 

"... causing massive damage to the very fabric of Thai civil society"? Loosen your grip on that purse.

 

Geez, give it a rest. She's gone, they're done, The Junta will make sure they never rise again. Now it's time to stop looking back, and figure out how to govern, or rule.

 

(I do understand the need to have someone to blame.)

Sorry, in your oft-haste to defend Thaksin/Yingluck you're missing the point entirely here methinks, which is not about blame, rather stating fact and learning from it. The finer point being we likely would not have suffered such massive floods, losses, nor a coup if both Rice Scheme/scam and Amnesty for big bro weren't such blinkered priorities (which we are still living the unfortunate results, ie massive losses, fractured society and a coup).

[Eric Loh]

13 minutes ago, sujoop said:

Sorry, in your oft-haste to defend Thaksin/Yingluck you're missing the point entirely here methinks, which is not about blame, rather stating fact and learning from it. The finer point being we likely would not have suffered such massive floods, losses, nor a coup if both Rice Scheme/scam and Amnesty for big bro weren't such blinkered priorities (which we are still living the unfortunate results, ie massive losses, fractured society and a coup).

Don't see much learning rather more blaming. This junta still use subsidies and even extended to rubber and other crops. Flood still happen in the cities, agriculture land inundated and businesses affected. And there is only one amnesty legitimized by the junta. 

 

[sujoop]

38 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Don't see much learning rather more blaming. This junta still use subsidies and even extended to rubber and other crops. Flood still happen in the cities, agriculture land inundated and businesses affected. And there is only one amnesty legitimized by the junta. 

 

Yes, 'normal' subsidies (not designed so insiders can re-sell same subsidised x2 times normal price  4X over again back to Govt etc) and 'normal' floods still happen (no dams 'ordered' shut so Govt can launch subsidy scam) and no Amnesty for Thaksin, might add, also no children being murdered and cheered by Thaksin backed red-shirt leaders (which all unfortunately resulted in coup). So,  present day much calmer but far from perfect, much to learn from.

 

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by sujoop

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

9 hours ago, Crossy said:

 

Given the usual accuracy of government statements of this kind and the depth of water we had in 2011, I've ordered sandbags and a ton of sand.

 

In light of this news report, I'd agree!!!

 

Anyone know where rescue boats and hip waders will be available???

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 hours ago, Wilsonandson said:

Wait until next year. They'll be a flood if Pheu Thai wins the general election.

You mean, the election that's going to be postponed because of flooding??? 

[Eric Loh]

21 minutes ago, sujoop said:

Yes, 'normal' subsidies (not designed so insiders can re-sell same subsidised x2 times normal price  4X over again back to Govt etc) and 'normal' floods still happen (no dams 'ordered' shut so Govt can launch subsidy scam) and no Amnesty for Thaksin, might add, also no children being murdered and cheered by Thaksin backed red-shirt leaders (which all unfortunately resulted in coup). So,  present day much calmer but far from perfect, much to learn from.

 

 

Almost 40B in subsidies are not normal. Floods that kill 45 people affecting 1.6 m and an economic list of almost 35B in the south is not normal. Amnesty that protect the junta from extra judiciary deaths and corruptions are

not normal. Just junta kool aid you are consuming. 

[wvavin]

Not to worry. The Irrigation department will set up an altar and invite monks to recite prayers and the flood will subside. 

[sujoop]

 

15 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

40 minutes ago, sujoop said:

Yes, 'normal' subsidies (not designed so insiders can re-sell same subsidised x2 times normal price  4X over again back to Govt etc) and 'normal' floods still happen (no dams 'ordered' shut so Govt can launch subsidy scam) and no Amnesty for Thaksin, might add, also no children being murdered and cheered by Thaksin backed red-shirt leaders (which all unfortunately resulted in coup). So,  present day much calmer but far from perfect, much to learn from.

 

 

Almost 40B in subsidies are not normal. Floods that kill 45 people affecting 1.6 m and an economic list of almost 35B in the south is not normal. Amnesty that protect the junta from extra judiciary deaths and corruptions are

not normal. Just junta kool aid you are consuming. 

 

No my friend, not a fan of Military Govts, just an astute observer trying to learn from the past, unlike some. Nevermind, the 'good times' which some yearn for, of daily bombings, self-enrichment subsidies and family amnesty attempts during floods etc, may come around yet again, take heart!

 

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by sujoop

[Eric Loh]

31 minutes ago, sujoop said:

 

 

No my friend, not a fan of Military Govts, just an astute observer trying to learn from the past, unlike some. Nevermind, the 'good times' which some yearn for, of daily bombings, self-enrichment subsidies and family amnesty attempts during floods etc, may come around yet again, take heart!

 

 

Yes my astute friend; another coup and a new constitution will also be coming around yet again. That you can count on as the military never learn after repetitive times that borders on insanity. 

[Jonmarleesco]

Yes, well, we'll see.

[Baerboxer]

13 hours ago, darksidedog said:

To be able to categorically rule out any chance of flooding similar to 2011, I assume someone at the meteorological office has a direct hotline to God.

How else could they possibly know how much rain is or isn't going to fall over the next few months?

I wonder if anyone takes any of the stupid predictions from the Government seriously.

 

So you believe there is an entity called God that directly controls the weather on earth

 

Right oh then, 

[Michael Hare]

Meanwhile, the Royal Irrigation Department’s Sixth Regional Office in Khon Kaen was preparing for possible flooding in irrigation areas of five northeastern provinces – Khon Kaen, Roi Et, Maha Sarakham, Kalasin and Chaiyaphum, according to the office’s director, Preecha Janthong.

 

He said yesterday that due to heavy rains over the past month that came early this year, higher-than-expected amounts of water – 386 million cubic metres – have entered the Ubol Ratana Dam in Khon Kaen, a major reservoir in the Northeast.

 

 

Here in Ubon Ratchathani,  it is the above statement that I am worried about. The damaging floods in 1978, 1985, 2000, 2001 and 2002, here in Ubon, were caused by releasing water from the Ubol Ratana Dam 300 km away in Khon Kaen province. These floods occurred each time in September-October, as the released water travelled downstream along the Chi river, into the Mun river and finally into the Mekong river. For sure, if the Ubol Ratana dam continues to receive higher than expected amounts of water from June to September, water will be released in great volumes. Same story with the Lat Pao dam in Kalasin. Water released from this dam joins the Chi river and then into the Mun river.