What is going on with the Thai baht ?

[metisdead]

A post using foreign language has been removed. 

[Naam]

21 minutes ago, EricTh said:

The real problem is the huge inflow of funds from the European/American countries. 

 

That's what driving the Baht up, no matter how expensive Baht is, these investors still want to invest their money in Thailand.

can you provide some sources for this "huge" inflow of funds?

 

here's a graph showing FDI which is rather stable and showing an average increase from $20bb to $25bb p.a. (see black trendline) over a period of 20 years. nothing about "huge"and especially nothing extraordinary which could be used as an argument for the Bath's strength.

 

[lovelomsak]

Everyone talks about Thai baht  and how it affects trade and tourism. When I first came to Thailand I got 18 baht to the dollar.and the rest of the world did not even know they were there. It jumps to 30 baht and hey they are a player the world took notice.. Their exports were dismal at 18,but at 30 baht the exports became the highest in the region.Can some one explain to me how that works?

[Naam]

3 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

Everyone talks about Thai baht  and how it affects trade and tourism. When I first came to Thailand I got 18 baht to the dollar.and the rest of the world did not even know they were there. It jumps to 30 baht and hey they are a player the world took notice.. Their exports were dismal at 18,but at 30 baht the exports became the highest in the region.Can some one explain to me how that works?

the explanation is that one can't compare pineapples with strawberries. when your Dollar bought 18 Baht i paid 60 Baht for 6 nice sized rock lobsters with side dishes and dips in an airconditioned restaurant in Bangkok. today the 60 Baht pays for two bowls of noodle soup with some chicken pieces from a street vendor.

[observer90210]

11 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

Everyone talks about Thai baht  and how it affects trade and tourism. When I first came to Thailand I got 18 baht to the dollar.and the rest of the world did not even know they were there. It jumps to 30 baht and hey they are a player the world took notice.. Their exports were dismal at 18,but at 30 baht the exports became the highest in the region.Can some one explain to me how that works?

Perhaps through the years the quality and choice of exports improved which may explain why exports did rise to some extent despite the monetary fluctuation. Maybe that globalisation also made the prices soar elsewhere and that also helped. But on the other hand tourists don't give a shit for such economic variables and want to get a long run for their bucks. If one was to speculate that tourism drains in as much currency as exports, if not more, it may be a wrong turn to take in strenghtening the THB and lowering the purchasing power of farangs?  I am no financial guru, just was informally sharing a few thoughts. Have a nice evening.

Edited June 13, 2017 by observer90210

[Naam]

1 minute ago, observer90210 said:

12 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

Everyone talks about Thai baht  and how it affects trade and tourism. When I first came to Thailand I got 18 baht to the dollar.and the rest of the world did not even know they were there. It jumps to 30 baht and hey they are a player the world took notice.. Their exports were dismal at 18,but at 30 baht the exports became the highest in the region.Can some one explain to me how that works?

Perhaps through the years the quality and choice of exports improved which may explain why exports did rise to some extent despite the THB getting stronger?

the Thai Baht didn't get stronger during the afore-mentioned period but weakened considerably. presently you nearly get double the amount of Baht for one Dollar.

[observer90210]

3 minutes ago, Naam said:

the Thai Baht didn't get stronger during the afore-mentioned period but weakened considerably. presently you nearly get double the amount of Baht for one Dollar.

you are right, and corrected my lexic in the cited post, thanks for reading.

[Naam]

13 minutes ago, observer90210 said:

you are right, and corrected my lexic in the cited post, thanks for reading.

relax mate! you are not the only one who gets sometimes confused when currency pairs are concerned

[observer90210]

1 minute ago, Naam said:

relax mate! you are not the only one who gets sometimes confused when currency pairs are concerned

cushty

[Berkshire]

3 hours ago, observer90210 said:

Greed in the sense that despite a product costing less on import dut to a strong THB, you continue to increase the retail costs. This has nothing to do in controling or not the value of the THB but with the greed policies of retail moghouls. Now if this seems to lack logic or make you feel looney, sorry I cannot be more explicit.  Have a nice evening!

I get all that, but that's not what you said.  You're arguing that somehow, someone is keeping the baht stronger and you think it should be 40-45 to the dollar.  So what are you talking about, the strong baht or retail prices? 

[t8769]

>On the subject of 'significant details' you did say "in the world".

 

I said it was one of the best performing in the world, which it is. 

 

And I said it has the highest growth in G7, which it does. 

 

Accuracy is so important when quoting. 

 

[observer90210]

37 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I get all that, but that's not what you said.  You're arguing that somehow, someone is keeping the baht stronger and you think it should be 40-45 to the dollar.  So what are you talking about, the strong baht or retail prices? 

both, as are they are connected but retail costs do not catch up on the low when the THB goes high...as for keeping any currency strong or low, anybody would be aware that a country can manipulate the exchange rate of their currencies on international markets to some extent.  hope this enlightened things a bit...

[EricTh]

3 hours ago, Naam said:

can you provide some sources for this "huge" inflow of funds?

 

 

 

 

There are recent articles in Bangkok Post that explains why the Baht is appreciating.

 

Forum rules state I can't link the articles so you have to find it yourself.

 

[Naam]

57 minutes ago, EricTh said:

There are recent articles in Bangkok Post that explains why the Baht is appreciating.

Forum rules state I can't link the articles so you have to find it yourself.

 

thank you but i do my own research based on hard facts and don't rely on obvious rubbish published by journalists (assuming these journalists were talking about "huge" FDI inflows as you claim).

[EricTh]

On 6/13/2017 at 11:35 PM, Naam said:

thank you but i do my own research based on hard facts and don't rely on obvious rubbish published by journalists (assuming these journalists were talking about "huge" FDI inflows as you claim).

I hate to burst your bubble but there is a article on Bangkok Post posted on 16 June detailing two huge funds coming in to invest in Thailand. Company names and transaction details were published.

[Naam]

1 hour ago, EricTh said:

I hate to burst your bubble but there is a article on Bangkok Post posted on 16 June detailing two huge funds coming in to invest in Thailand. Company names and transaction details were published.

your bubble is beating around the bush and mentioning Bangkok Post but refrain from quantifying what a Post journalist (or you) consider "huge".

 

i have checked all headlines of the business section june 16th edition and could not find anything remotely connected to your claim. 

 

and this is what the Bank of Thailand had to say several months (referring to 2016 and the last decade):

 

Quote

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand in the first half of the year fell by more than 90% in value to the lowest mark in over a decade at US$347 million, reports the Bank of Thailand (BOT).

The BOT report said FDI declined from $4.2 billion in the same period last year to the lowest value since 2005.

 

Edited June 17, 2017 by Naam

[EricTh]

2 hours ago, Naam said:

 

 

i have checked all headlines of the business section june 16th edition and could not find anything remotely connected to your claim. 

 

 

 

 

The headline is called 'dealers spy B40bn in fund inflows'.

 

 

[metisdead]

A post containing a link to Bangkok Post has been removed:

 

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[jeab1980]

1 minute ago, metisdead said:

A post containing a link to Bangkok Post has been removed:

 

26) The Bangkok Post and Phuketwan do not allow quotes from their news articles or other material to appear on Thaivisa.com. Neither do they allow links to their publications. Posts from members containing quotes from or links to Bangkok Post or Phuketwan publications will be deleted from the forum.

Sorry

[Beechboy]

A bit off topic but:

If the Thai baht is being kept artificially high as some suspect then those responsible should perhaps ponder this headline from today's Mail online.

"Record number of tourists flock to Britain to make the most of the weak pound with the amount travellers spending up nearly 20%" 

 

This is as a result of the Brexit vote which hit the value of the pound sterling by over 10%

 

With tourism being more important to the Thai economy than it is to that of the UK ????

[jeab1980]

52 minutes ago, Beechboy said:

A bit off topic but:

If the Thai baht is being kept artificially high as some suspect then those responsible should perhaps ponder this headline from today's Mail online.

"Record number of tourists flock to Britain to make the most of the weak pound with the amount travellers spending up nearly 20%" 

 

This is as a result of the Brexit vote which hit the value of the pound sterling by over 10%

 

With tourism being more important to the Thai economy than it is to that of the UK ????

I would like some proof if there is any on the baht being kept artificially high. Its high beacuse the others are floundering.

PS: tourism is a big part of the UK's economy by the way

2015 tourists in UK 34.4 million 10% of GDP

2015 tourists  in Thailand 29.9 million 19.9% of GDP

Edited June 17, 2017 by jeab1980

[Naam]

2 hours ago, EricTh said:

The headline is called 'dealers spy B40bn in fund inflows'.

thanks, that's something to work with especially as the currency dealer's assumption is quoted by a dozen other sources too.

 

-average FDI inflows are approximately USD 2 billion/month.

-THB 40 billion = USD 1.2 billion = in line with average except that this inflow was during 1 or 2 days only causing indeed the Baht to react (see graph which shows Dollar/Baht, EURo/Baht and Pound/Baht this week). but the overall strength of the Baht since one year is not explained by inflow of foreign funds only because as mentioned before FDIs have declined.

 

 

[Beechboy]

 

"I would like some proof if there is any on the baht being kept artificially high. Its high beacuse the others are floundering.

PS: tourism is a big part of the UK's economy by the way

2015 tourists in UK 34.4 million 10% of GDP

2015 tourists  in Thailand 29.9 million 19.9% of GDP"

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never said that tourism was not a big part of the UK economy, just that it was not as bigger part as it is of Thailand's ... as your own figures point out.

 

Those who think that the baht is being kept artificially high, and I do not count myself amongst them rather amongst the sceptic, question as to how it has maintained it's levels despite continuous political unrest in the country followed by a military coup, the death of the King and some not particularly healthy growth and trading figures. 

Edited June 17, 2017 by Beechboy

[Acharn]

On 6/13/2017 at 4:18 AM, Skeptic7 said:

Yes and remenber it well and fondly. Can't wait for history to repeat itself!

 

That event has been discussed and explained ad nauseam, which leads me to the question...what does that event have to do with my post? Nothing in my post can be disputed and never even slightly hinted that the THB held up during the Asian Financial Crisis. Every event that was mentioned was post 1997-1998 by a LONG shot. So asking again...what does 1997 have to do with my post? 

I don't remember. I think I intended to point out that it might have been some time ago, but there was a time when the baht wasn't strong and stable, whether you call it a long time ago or not. However, it's not particularly important, and I've been expecting the U.S. dollar to drop like a rock for many years now. That's the currency I think is hugely overvalued, and there's nothing I can do about it.

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, Beechboy said:

 

"I would like some proof if there is any on the baht being kept artificially high.

I would like to go to the ATM and draw 500 baht sometimes from UK but it costs me about 450 bht + the 500 baht.  

[jeab1980]

51 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

I would like to go to the ATM and draw 500 baht sometimes from UK but it costs me about 450 bht + the 500 baht.  

Sod all to do with the baht is called bank charges and a crap bank exchange rate?

Plus the crap £.

Edited June 17, 2017 by jeab1980

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, jeab1980 said:

Sod all to do with the baht is called bank charges and a crap bank exchange rate?

Plus the crap £.

Well keep your hair on, disagree bank charges do add devalue to the baht.

Got my £'s over from Uk when there were no charges so it made it worth more, no.

[jeab1980]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

Well keep your hair on, disagree bank charges do add devalue to the baht.

Got my £'s over from Uk when there were no charges so it made it worth more, no.

So why say you want to use a ATM then if your already sorted ! One more chang youll be fine

[Kwasaki]

3 minutes ago, jeab1980 said:

So why say you want to use a ATM then if your already sorted ! One more chang youll be fine

Still got money in England.

Just relaxing with a Chang as it happens. 

[EricTh]

I am waiting for the Baht to go down in value but it seems it is going the other way for the past few months.