High-speed railway project: China's loan terms rejected

[inThailand]

Maybe the Chinese would not give envelope money until this project actually starts or gets finished. The Chinese are not stupid!

[Dave67]

17 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

I think construction was to begin this October.

There will be no feasibility study. That was cancelled by Prayut's Order to expedite the project through Article 44.

Yeah, I recall it was October. With no feasibility study, they are building blind, Will be night mare for any contractors who come in

[trainman34014]

2 hours ago, inThailand said:

Yup! Did the German road construction company ever get paid? In full?

Yes, because they would not let the Plane go until they had payment in full.....Result !

[worgeordie]

So what are the rates China wants to charge ?, the Hi speed train is going to benefit

China more than Thailand I think.

regards worgeordie

[Ricardo]

Reuters say 2-4%, a pretty vague indication,  IIRC I've seen the number 2.9% somewhere recently ?

[Dave67]

Massive waste of money what ever the interest is going to be. Thailand should follow Malaysia and end up with decent reliable narrow gauge railway from Penang Basar to KL and now taken down to Johore in the south, 180kph. They turned a shit railway with long delays common for people to wait 4 to 5 hours for a train and weekly derailments. Malaysia now has a modern, reliable, safe railway. if you build something like that people will use it

 

A High-speed railway in the middle of a shit railway will not improve matters much. 179 Billion baht for a railway that will cover only an insignificant distance of the network.

[Ricardo]

35 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

Massive waste of money what ever the interest is going to be. Thailand should follow Malaysia and end up with decent reliable narrow gauge railway from Penang Basar to KL and now taken down to Johore in the south, 180kph. They turned a shit railway with long delays common for people to wait 4 to 5 hours for a train and weekly derailments. Malaysia now has a modern, reliable, safe railway. if you build something like that people will use it

 

A High-speed railway in the middle of a shit railway will not improve matters much. 179 Billion baht for a railway that will cover only an insignificant distance of the network.

 

The SRT are indeed pursuing track-doubling of the existing metre-guage line, on the Bangkok to Padang Besar route, I believe that the contract for Hua-Hin to Prachuap was just awarded to Ital-Thai recently ?  So they are getting there, slowly.

 

And the standard-gauge medium-speed heavy-freight Chinese-Thai line, which the Thai politicians like to call a high-speed passenger-route to Isaan, is mainly intended to move Chinese containerised-freight to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut Ports & industrial-areas, with a branch to the new SRT-terminal North of central-Bangkok.

 

The latter is the one to which the OP refers.

[coulson]

They could give back the subs as repayment if all fails. Sorted!

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, Ricardo said:

Reuters say 2-4%, a pretty vague indication,  IIRC I've seen the number 2.9% somewhere recently ?

There's this:

China has set an interest rate on loans to finance the project at 2.5 percent, but Thailand considered the rate too high and wanted below 2 percent. (2015-12-19)

http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/thailand-and-china-start-historic-railway-cooperation/

 

 

[Dave67]

3 hours ago, Ricardo said:

 

The SRT are indeed pursuing track-doubling of the existing metre-guage line, on the Bangkok to Padang Besar route, I believe that the contract for Hua-Hin to Prachuap was just awarded to Ital-Thai recently ?  So they are getting there, slowly.

 

And the standard-gauge medium-speed heavy-freight Chinese-Thai line, which the Thai politicians like to call a high-speed passenger-route to Isaan, is mainly intended to move Chinese containerised-freight to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut Ports & industrial-areas, with a branch to the new SRT-terminal North of central-Bangkok.

 

The latter is the one to which the OP refers.

Good I hope they succeed

 

Agree they should stop calling it "High Speed" and talk about freight as well. The two are not compatable. I won't go into great detail but it's to do with wheel profiles and axel loads amongst other things.

 

IMO I've worked both and double track is far more difficult to build than high speed because you have to build as well as running passenger and freight traffic.Which Means using many temporary diversions and temporary signalling

 

High speed after about a month of getting a site into a good routine, building the day, casting at night it turns into a production line and you can sit back and just do trouble shooting when necessary. Hard work getting a good routine but after that, the job can run itself.

 

 

[Justgrazing]

Wow Thailand's certainly going for broke in the ridicule category with this .. Standard practice in projects of this size is usually that there is more than one bidder to try and encourage some cost efficiency , quality , timescale and other such considerations into the process .. But I only hear speak of China's involvement even if to give it an air of competitiveness proxy companies have been used the end result is the same .. if that is the case is Thailand getting the deal vetted by a independent 3rd party with experience in these things to see if they are getting a good deal .. If not ( as you would have to suspect to be the case as that might mean having to deal with those bloody Westerners ) then the whole deal is skewed in favour of China from the start .. Look further at how they are hoping to finance the thing and it makes even less sense .. Thailand will attempt to finance 25% on the back of the self held belief that they have a good credit rating but they're limiting of options to go anywhere other than China will almost ensure that the Chinese version of " Can't pay well take it way " will be involved somewhere down the line .. Factor in the inevitable inflation in cost's that projects like this suffer and the potential for unmitigated financial and reputational disaster is almost guaranteed .. But it looks likely to be pushed through by the Gen ' exercising his all consuming powers despite the Ministers tough talk about reputation and the Kingdom not being cowed etc .. ( best not be quoting journey times , ticket prices and other figures on projects like this  before you've even got the money to pay for it unless you want some personal ridicule when it all goes t*ts up ) 

 

And even if the administration know what they want and this is it do the Thai people know what they are letting thereselves in for .. Fencing long sections of track either side of places of inhabitation is required to prevent animals , people get too close .. These trains  ( not that the Bangkok > Nk Ratch' section will be a true high speed train as the journey time of 90 mins to cover approx 250 km is an ave of a little over 100 mph .. the Flying Scotsman was doing that nearly 80 years ago )  by definition have to run on flat straight trajectories as they don't do bends .. Is there much landscaping , land-draining to be done .?  Who is supplying the electricity that these trains consume .. If it is Thailand are they going to build further generation capacity in to their cost calc's as at full chat fully loaded these trains consume considerable amounts of electricity  .. The hallmark of getting stitched up is stamped all over this and while H S T's are the future of mass transport for many countries the way Thailand is going at is not .. 

[Dave67]

4 hours ago, Justgrazing said:

Wow Thailand's certainly going for broke in the ridicule category with this .. Standard practice in projects of this size is usually that there is more than one bidder to try and encourage some cost efficiency , quality , timescale and other such considerations into the process .. But I only hear speak of China's involvement even if to give it an air of competitiveness proxy companies have been used the end result is the same .. if that is the case is Thailand getting the deal vetted by a independent 3rd party with experience in these things to see if they are getting a good deal .. If not ( as you would have to suspect to be the case as that might mean having to deal with those bloody Westerners ) then the whole deal is skewed in favour of China from the start .. Look further at how they are hoping to finance the thing and it makes even less sense .. Thailand will attempt to finance 25% on the back of the self held belief that they have a good credit rating but they're limiting of options to go anywhere other than China will almost ensure that the Chinese version of " Can't pay well take it way " will be involved somewhere down the line .. Factor in the inevitable inflation in cost's that projects like this suffer and the potential for unmitigated financial and reputational disaster is almost guaranteed .. But it looks likely to be pushed through by the Gen ' exercising his all consuming powers despite the Ministers tough talk about reputation and the Kingdom not being cowed etc .. ( best not be quoting journey times , ticket prices and other figures on projects like this  before you've even got the money to pay for it unless you want some personal ridicule when it all goes t*ts up ) 

 

And even if the administration know what they want and this is it do the Thai people know what they are letting thereselves in for .. Fencing long sections of track either side of places of inhabitation is required to prevent animals , people get too close .. These trains  ( not that the Bangkok > Nk Ratch' section will be a true high speed train as the journey time of 90 mins to cover approx 250 km is an ave of a little over 100 mph .. the Flying Scotsman was doing that nearly 80 years ago )  by definition have to run on flat straight trajectories as they don't do bends .. Is there much landscaping , land-draining to be done .?  Who is supplying the electricity that these trains consume .. If it is Thailand are they going to build further generation capacity in to their cost calc's as at full chat fully loaded these trains consume considerable amounts of electricity  .. The hallmark of getting stitched up is stamped all over this and while H S T's are the future of mass transport for many countries the way Thailand is going at is not .. 

17

Nice one justrazing ,  Agree with that 100%

 

",,,,,,, by definition have to run on flat straight trajectories as they don't do bends....." Exactly that's why the are called curves

[ChouDoufu]

On 8/15/2017 at 5:07 PM, Dave67 said:

Massive waste of money what ever the interest is going to be. Thailand should follow Malaysia and end up with decent reliable narrow gauge railway from Penang Basar to KL and now taken down to Johore in the south, 180kph. They turned a shit railway with long delays common for people to wait 4 to 5 hours for a train and weekly derailments. Malaysia now has a modern, reliable, safe railway. if you build something like that people will use it

 

A High-speed railway in the middle of a shit railway will not improve matters much. 179 Billion baht for a railway that will cover only an insignificant distance of the network.

other consideration is the cost of tickets.

china high speed rail is super expensive,

so often is much cheaper to fly.

[Ricardo]

8 hours ago, ChouDoufu said:

other consideration is the cost of tickets.

china high speed rail is super expensive,

so often is much cheaper to fly.

And with the recent (and ongoing) rapid-growth in charter-flights and Low-Cost-Carriers, bringing Chinese tourists to Thailand, they can go to several other major tourist-destinations which the new railway will not be reaching. 

 

One key reason why air-transport is currently growing so fast is the flexibility it has, to switch capacity from lower-demand destinations to higher-demand or newly-emerging destinations, as the demand from travellers evolves.  Narrow-bodied jet-aircraft can deliver point-to-point services, between China & Thailand, for groups of 150-200 passengers efficiently and economically.

 

For example Chiang Mai & Chiang Rai in the North, Phuket & Krabi & Surat Thani (for Samui) in the South, are seeing more of these visitors. IMO this trend will continue.

 

While Thai politicians sometimes (especially election-time) talk about a different high-speed passenger-only network, hubbed on Bangkok, this is metre-guage and only covers (eventually) one of the places I've just listed.  Perhaps we might see higher-speed passenger-services on the SRT's expanding double-track network, but yesterday's announcement of a 20% fare-increase on those routes shows, that the new improved rolling-stock comes at-a-price.

 

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/997461-fares-on-new-trains-set-to-rise-20-from-august-21st/

 

[Redline]

Let Japan do it.  I certainly trust their equipment and expertise more

[Dave67]

47 minutes ago, Redline said:

Let Japan do it.  I certainly trust their equipment and expertise more

The problem with Japanese system is only one system is used J-slab normally installed by MHI Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, We used that Mainly on Taiwan high-speed rail Project, they did not have a proven system for Turnouts (Crossings) on Viduact we used the German Rheeda 2000 system for Turnouts and 5k Transitions each way. I don't if MHI has a proven system now.

 

I also think term "High Speed" is inappropriate if the line being built if is for freight as well the as the 2 are not compatible

Edited August 18, 2017 by Dave67

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

[Redline]

1 hour ago, Dave67 said:

The problem with Japanese system is only one system is used J-slab normally installed by MHI Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, We used that Mainly on Taiwan high-speed rail Project, they did not have a proven system for Turnouts (Crossings) on Viduact we used the German Rheeda 2000 system for Turnouts and 5k Transitions each way. I don't if MHI has a proven system now.

 

I also think term "High Speed" is inappropriate if the line being built if is for freight as well the as the 2 are not compatible

I would like to see German, but I know they wouldn't pay the price, and it seems the Japanese give better financing terms

[Dave67]

8 minutes ago, Redline said:

I would like to see German, but I know they wouldn't pay the price, and it seems the Japanese give better financing terms

I'm still not sure what the are going to build something around 180 KPH and freight would be ok but High speed

[Redline]

1 minute ago, Dave67 said:

I'm still not sure what the are going to build something around 180 KPH and freight would be ok but High speed

I think the term high speed is being used to make it sound like Thailand is entering the 4.0 zone, but it can't be with freight right?

[Dave67]

"The route is divided into four sections, with construction on the first 3.5 kilometres planned to start in October. After the first contract is signed, the two sides will start to work on a construction plan for the second phase, the 355-kilometre section from Nakhon Ratchasima to Nong Khai province, Akhom said. 

 

The high-speed rail service between Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima would start around 2021 or 2022, he added. Then the service between Nakhon Ratchasima to Nong Khai province will open in 2022 or 2023, the same year as the route from southern China to Laos starts service."

 

The 3.5km is a test track I would assume that's in October. So 355km from Korat to Nong Khai and I think I read about 260km Korat to Bangkok. Roughly 600km or 1200+km of track. So being that the ground has not been surveyed completely and a feasibility study was overridden by a swift 44 from P-Man. How can a finish date be estimated when you no idea of what lays in front of you. Charge of the light brigade springs to mind

 

[Dave67]

7 minutes ago, Redline said:

I think the term high speed is being used to make it sound like Thailand is entering the 4.0 zone, but it can't be with freight right?

No, it can't, The definition of high speed is 250kph+ You don't want to build a high speed railway and have something loaded with endless freight wagons with a 40-tonne axle load.  Also, wheel profile is totally different on freight and high speed which create problems with rail wear. The Chinese High speed lines are called PDL, Passenger dedicated line.Thye put the freight on broad gauge track. Knowing the Thai mai pen rai attitude they may well try it but high speed and worn rail are not a good mix and they'll probably think they are proving everybody wrong until a train falls off at 250kph

[gandalf12]

On 8/14/2017 at 7:39 AM, Ricardo said:

 

That's actually the first time I've seen any mention, that the Chinese-Thailand medium-speed heavy-freight railway might also carry  international-passengers, if indeed that's what the Minister intended to convey ? Rather than just domestic-passengers to/from Isaan.

 

Won't this be competing with a rapidly-growing charter-airline industry, which can transfer smaller groups (150-200 pax at-a-time) from many points in China, to several points within Thailand ?  Not sure whether that would work ?

 

One can only hope that Immigration will find enough officers to process the arriving Chinese tourists, given several years' warning, of the first arrivals !

 

 

 

And that's the whole point, the reason why the project cannot afford to be burdened with too-high financing-costs, and why Thailand has to continue to be firm on this point.

 

Too-high an interest-rate would mean that the whole thing becomes unjustifiable from the Thai point-of-view.

 

China however is now commmited to the line being built all-the-way down to the ports, the section through Laos is underway, but the main benefit to them will be from adding a new export-route across Thailand.  It might be that splitting the Thai-section of the project into three/four sections, is actually a negotiating-ploy by Thailand to keep the pressure up on China, who knows ?

 

I do believe that the project will get built, and I do think it will have a very-long-term benefit to the Thai economy, mainly from the increased opportunities to export agricultural-products & cheaper manufactured-goods back up the line, as the containerised-exports are shuttled down to Laem Chabang.

 

There will also be all sorts of profits to be made, from land-speculation & industrial-estate development, along the line.  But those benefits, while real, are more-likely to go to private-capital than to the project itself.  Unless someone has a clever 'fix' to transfer those gains from private to public-hands ?

The channel Tunnel between the UK and France has been operational for a number of years and is still way off the break even point

[Justgrazing]

2 hours ago, Redline said:

Let Japan do it.  I certainly trust their equipment and expertise more

Yes sure Japan have great experience and the kit you need for these things .. But the jobs going to China for reasons more than to do with quality and expertise .. take a long look at it and you'll see why .. 

[Justgrazing]

11 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

No, it can't, The definition of high speed is 250kph+ You don't want to build a high speed railway and have something loaded with endless freight wagons with a 40-tonne axle load.  Also, wheel profile is totally different on freight and high speed which create problems with rail wear. The Chinese High speed lines are called PDL, Passenger dedicated line.Thye put the freight on broad gauge track. Knowing the Thai mai pen rai attitude they may well try it but high speed and worn rail are not a good mix and they'll probably think they are proving everybody wrong until a train falls off at 250kph

Hahaha .. Nice one Dave .. Expect to see loads of good luckee charms draped off the keep out fencing then .. 

[ChouDoufu]

i'm not sure where the talk about freight is coming from. 

chinese high-speed rail (250+ kmh), as this line is, and

will supposedly connect with the chinese high speed

rail system which does not carry freight.

 

in fact, there are no baggage cars at all.   passengers

are limited to carry-on type baggage.  boxes and

suitcases up to about 130cm total dimensions.

 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china-trains/baggage-allowance.htm

 

as to the 600km missing, no hurry.  lots to build still

in laos, and the chinese rail system essentially ends

at kunming.

 

high-speed rail was just brought to kunming jan 2017.

there is no rail at all south, unless you count the

recently re-activated narrow guage line built by

the french to hekou at the viet border.

 

and the price?  the cheapest 2nd class seats from

shanghai to kunming are 880 rmb, or about

4500 baht.  1st class 7000 baht, and business

class about 14000 baht.  one way.

 

a quick search on ctrip shows one way shanghai

to kunming on lucky air economy class can be

had as low as 740 rmb (incl tax and fees).

 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china-trains/display.aspx?tp=9&fs=Shanghai+Hongqiao&ts=Kunming+South&depDate=09%2F07%2F2017

Edited August 18, 2017 by ChouDoufu
the voices told me to

[Dave67]

16 minutes ago, Justgrazing said:

Hahaha .. Nice one Dave .. Expect to see loads of good luckee charms draped off the keep out fencing then .. 

yes they'll probably blame it on Slippery track of fail-safe brake failure and bung investigation team a 100bt

[wakeupplease]

On 8/17/2017 at 1:43 AM, Ricardo said:

And with the recent (and ongoing) rapid-growth in charter-flights and Low-Cost-Carriers, bringing Chinese tourists to Thailand, they can go to several other major tourist-destinations which the new railway will not be reaching. 

 

One key reason why air-transport is currently growing so fast is the flexibility it has, to switch capacity from lower-demand destinations to higher-demand or newly-emerging destinations, as the demand from travellers evolves.  Narrow-bodied jet-aircraft can deliver point-to-point services, between China & Thailand, for groups of 150-200 passengers efficiently and economically.

 

For example Chiang Mai & Chiang Rai in the North, Phuket & Krabi & Surat Thani (for Samui) in the South, are seeing more of these visitors. IMO this trend will continue.

 

While Thai politicians sometimes (especially election-time) talk about a different high-speed passenger-only network, hubbed on Bangkok, this is metre-guage and only covers (eventually) one of the places I've just listed.  Perhaps we might see higher-speed passenger-services on the SRT's expanding double-track network, but yesterday's announcement of a 20% fare-increase on those routes shows, that the new improved rolling-stock comes at-a-price.

 

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/997461-fares-on-new-trains-set-to-rise-20-from-august-21st/

 

Knowing this lot they will ban cheap flights and insist you use the railway

[ChouDoufu]

34 minutes ago, Justgrazing said:

Yes sure Japan have great experience and the kit you need for these things .. But the jobs going to China for reasons more than to do with quality and expertise .. take a long look at it and you'll see why .. 

didn't the japanese recently sign a contract to build

the new line from kanchaniburi to myanmar?

[Ricardo]

33 minutes ago, gandalf12 said:

The channel Tunnel between the UK and France has been operational for a number of years and is still way off the break even point

Yes, it's an operational-success, but was a disaster for the original shareholders.

 

12 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

i'm not sure where the talk about freight is coming from. 

chinese high-speed rail (250+ kmh), as this line is, and

will supposedly connect with the chinese high speed

rail system which does not carry freight.

 

in fact, there are no baggage cars at all.   passengers

are limited to carry-on type baggage.  boxes and

suitcases up to about 130cm total dimensions.

 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china-trains/baggage-allowance.htm

I really don't think China wants to run passenger-trains, to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut Ports, no its clearly for container-freight.

 

 This is important because it gives Chinese exports another route to the sea, and the project was promoted back when the main Chinese ports were struggling to cope with the rapidly-growing volume of exports, so this made good sense.