British expats in Thailand feeling the misery as the UK pound drops to record low levels.

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, Craig krup said:

Ask Neil about Provident Financial. 

Neil would probably explain that it's about 5% of his fund, so an 80% permanent loss of value would hit the fund by 4% ... whilst not great, is hardly the disaster it's being portrayed as. Provident may well recover ground over time. He might also mention that his fund is up 26% since inception, around three years, despite being hit by a series of horrors at Privident, Allied, Imperial, and Astra. Again, not a great result, but if you're investing in his fund you really have to be in for 5-10 years. I suspect Woodford may well recover. 

 

I've just been reading about J M Keynes and his performance with the Kings College Chest Fund during the 1930's and 1940's ... his overall performance over that period was very impressive and Market beating ... but in some years he had falls of 25-40%. A fund manager today would be fired and/or lose assets under management if that happened.

[Retiredandhappyhere]

49 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

You mean not sharing your narrowed tunnel vision. just saying hello to the Romanian male carers who turn up 4 times a day for my Father who don't need work permits. the UK has suffered remarkably little from the vote lol One PM government in minority inflation import prices and not one single thing agreed of how we are going to leave pound in junk territory have I missed any more of the benefits   

You may not have missed any more of the benefits, but you certainly missed out a few commas and full stops.  

[sammieuk1]

4 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

Fun's really important. Old people lying in their own filth is just no fun. People being stabbed and raped because of the want of sufficient police officers is no fun at all. Kids dying needlessly of cancer when expensive - but readily available - drugs would save them is a situation devoid of fun. This is why people like me worry about spending hundreds of billions of pounds compensating Slovakia's Roma for centuries of shoddy treatment. In and of itself I take pleasure in their pleasure.

 

I'll tell you something else that isn't fun. Adulthood. Recognizing the evil that you do when you refuse to think. That's no fun. Seeing that you've spent decades sneering at other folk, and then suddenly realizing that maybe they're right. Again, no fun. Better than the alternative, though. Better than spending twenty more years acting badly and believing twelve impossible things before breakfast. 

I'm sure all this guff makes perfect sense but unfortunately only to you .

[Craig krup]

7 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

I'm sure all this guff makes perfect sense but unfortunately only to you .

Again, that's my point. It makes perfect sense to lots of folk. Perhaps you can't imagine what that's like, but it does. 

 

"...just saying hello to the Romanian male carers.."

 

You see that word "just"? As I always say to my fellow Glaswegians, you can't make something sensible, and you can't exonerate yourself from all responsibility, by adding "just" to the start of a description of what you did, and "..at that stage o' ma life" at the end. 

 

"A just thought that taking drugs would help at that stage o' ma life"

 

"Just" is one of those weasel words. It means, "I'm with the people who think university seminars are full of logic-chopping <deleted> who know nothing about the real world", and who then demand the help of the said <deleted> when they've been unlawfully arrested, sacked, denied access to their kids and need surgery and treatment for the lump they've found on their goolies. 

 

"Just" doesn't butter any parsnips. 

Edited August 28, 2017 by Craig krup

[sammieuk1]

3 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

Again, that's my point. It makes perfect sense to lots of folk. Perhaps you can't imagine what that's like, but it does. 

Names and address's of the lot of folk .. answers on a pin head.

[Craig krup]

1 minute ago, sammieuk1 said:

Names and address's of the lot of folk .. answers on a pin head.

Addresses. You don't need the apostrophe. The addresses don't "own" anything. 

 

You could start with the set of graduates of all British universities. You could restrict it to "graduating before 2000", if you think the system has gone to pot, or "with a 2.1 or above", but - trust me - lots of people use words to communicate complex ideas. It came after the stone axes and before the web. 

[sammieuk1]

1 minute ago, Craig krup said:

Addresses. You don't need the apostrophe. The addresses don't "own" anything. 

 

You could start with the set of graduates of all British universities. You could restrict it to "graduating before 2000", if you think the system has gone to pot, or "with a 2.1 or above", but - trust me - lots of people use words to communicate complex ideas. It came after the stone axes and before the web. 

When you start quoting grammatical errors you surely lost the argument >>>......''''''...;;   ****

[mstevens]

3 hours ago, billd766 said:

Kudos to anyone who plans 20 or more years into the future.

If you are retiring to a foreign country and not planning on working ever again you need to plan until the day you die, and that might be much more than 20 years!

[Craig krup]

2 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

When you start quoting grammatical errors you surely lost the argument >>>......''''''...;;   ****

Email the German economist below and argue with him. 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/844983/Brexit-news-German-economist-bright-future-UK-trouble-ahead-EU

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

21 hours ago, cyberfarang said:

My guess is, considering the £ is at is weakest level since many years and the bank interest rates are also at their lowest since for may years, that there will be a mass exodus of Brits leaving Thailand. I won`t be one of them as I was one of those who planned well, but many Brits were still living on shoestring budgets even when the exchange rates were reasonable enough to get by on.

If enough old Brits go home and front up at the social welfare office demanding their council flat, free travel card, winter fuel allowance, free hospital care for all their ailments, and say that they will be applying to bring their family over, the British government might find a convenient reason to allow pension increases for pensioners living overseas, or even increase the pension for such. Enough oldies go home it's going to cost the taxpayer billions more than already. 

[thaibeachlovers]

12 minutes ago, mstevens said:

If you are retiring to a foreign country and not planning on working ever again you need to plan until the day you die, and that might be much more than 20 years!

My plan was to die about the same time as I ran out of money. Who wants to go home and live in one of those disgusting rest homes being forced to watch daytime tv ( torture ) and fed slop?

[MadMuhammad]

18 hours ago, Craig krup said:

I've said it for decades, there's no future in cash deposits. I've been whacking more and more into shares with every major downturn for twenty years. NASDAQ crash - move a load into high yielding investment trusts. 2003 ructions - more in. Calamity of 2007-8 - do your tank, chuck it all into the pot, eat your losses, stress, reinvest the dividends, keep throwing more in. 

 

Every time the pound falls my foreign shares and FTSE100 companies do well: all those foreign earnings buy more pounds. 

 

If you've got a load of cash - and this is not financial advice!!!! - I'd get it all set up in dealing accounts, and when hell happens - the Donald nukes Pyongyang, whatever - start pulling the trigger. The best bit of advice I've heard from a hedge fund manager is just set price points and buy at that level, because it's too difficult to pull the trigger. So if the FTSE goes through 6800 chuck in (say) 10% of what you've got. 6500 another 20%. 6000 another 20%. Anything below 5,500 - do your tank, go all in. Sit as it (perhaps) hits 4,400. Cry. Blame everyone but yourself. Try to find out who I am to have me killed. Spend two months in despair. See the market gain 800 points one day, for no reason apparent. Feel slightly better. See another 650 added the next day. Realize you're well above break even. 

 

Relax. See the quarterly dividends roll in. See the dividends increase every time the pound falls. Have a big and (almost certainly) rising income for life. 

This comment is one of the most intelligent and truthful I've seen in all my time on TV.

 

This is a blueprint for never worrying about where your next dollar will come from. All markets rise and fall and some bottom out that low you'll be seriously considering access to the nearest condo rooftop.

 

But everything that falls rises again. Doesn't matter if it's the GFC, mass recession, war breaks out, whatever, it'll come back. You just gotta have the knowledge of what's a healthy investment (nothing's ever perfect but you can avoid the dogs with a little bit of planning), the balls to put something on the line and the guts to ride out the lows.

 

I've got a nicely diversified portfolio that has 3/4's of my liquid funds that's taken a little bit of a pounding this month (gotta love EOFY reporting season), the rest in cash and and a healthy property earning 15-17% capital growth year on year for the last 4.

 

I've had a major health scare, a relationship breakdown, been ripped off by my closest friends (for a decent amount I may add) and I have no income anymore but I can always rely on my capital growth and dividends from my portfolio. 

 

Cant recommend it enough.

[sammieuk1]

7 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

Email the German economist below and argue with him. 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/844983/Brexit-news-German-economist-bright-future-UK-trouble-ahead-EU

 

 

I just did he said don't believe a word Boris , Gove or Farage says they will take you up the garden path to la la land.

[MadMuhammad]

16 minutes ago, mstevens said:

If you are retiring to a foreign country and not planning on working ever again you need to plan until the day you die, and that might be much more than 20 years!

I wish it was 20 years, I could do that of cash alone lol. I've got at 35-40 ahead. 

Mans you're absolutely right, the day you stop planning ahead financially is the day you go broke.

[Craig krup]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

If enough old Brits go home and front up at the social welfare office demanding their council flat, free travel card, winter fuel allowance, free hospital care for all their ailments, and say that they will be applying to bring their family over, the British government might find a convenient reason to allow pension increases for pensioners living overseas, or even increase the pension for such. Enough oldies go home it's going to cost the taxpayer billions more than already. 

The irritating thing is that the original decision as to which countries to include in the list where there would be up-rating was just based on civil service whim: they speculated about where retirees might go. So the Philippines was included but Thailand wasn't, but there's no big rhyme, reason or rationale behind it. 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Craig krup said:

You mean, "You're high..." 

 

The things I worry about are the things the adults have to worry about. Taking stances is fine. "Thinking" with the frontal lobes is fine. Posing is fine. Conforming to bien pensant (ooooo, missus!!) opinion is fine. But there comes a point when the thinking folk come to the fore and try to reduce the total sum of human misery. The average person thinks that the Quality Adjusted Life Year and the system of triage are "barbaric", "disgusting" and involve "putting a price on human life". Their attitude, of course - if we were ever daft enough to allow them to run anything - would kill a lot more people. 

 

We have to use reason. There's nothing groovy, right-on or nice about not using reason. That, incidentally, is one of the things I like most about Remain voters. There's an old saying - "Nobody can imagine doing anything for a reason they themselves couldn't hold". So if a Remain voter has simplistic reasons for their position then it has to be the case that Leave voters have similarly simplistic reasons. Well, some might. I don't. 

While I think you are on the right track, I disagree with some of your thoughts, eg

 

when the thinking folk come to the fore and try to reduce the total sum of human misery

 

Good hearted scientists ( thinking folk ) decided to stop people dying of easily cured disease, and were successful. Unfortunately they didn't convince such saved people not to breed at the level needed with a high mortality rate and the resultant extra 4 billion humans are now destroying everything on the planet. Sometimes thinking folk need to think about consequences.

[CGW]

1 hour ago, Craig krup said:

Jesus. Imagine every single price right now being halved. 

I was living in Bangkok (paid in USD) in 97 when this happened, it was actually quite surreal, like - this cant be really happening? Certainly didn't take as much advantage of the situation as I could have!

[Craig krup]

8 minutes ago, MadMuhammad said:

I've had a major health scare, a relationship breakdown, been ripped off by my closest friends (for a decent amount I may add) and I have no income anymore but I can always rely on my capital growth and dividends from my portfolio. 

 

Cant recommend it enough.

 

Yes, but you've got to buy at the right price. I've always been too early - catching a falling knife. That said, the only things that picks bottoms are monkeys. You've got to buy when there's blood all over the streets and accept that probably some of your is going to end up on the pavement as well. If markets fall more than 40% I'll be no worse off than I would have been if I'd stayed in cash since 2007. The compounding effect of quarterly dividends is pretty awesome. 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

The irritating thing is that the original decision as to which countries to include in the list where there would be up-rating was just based on civil service whim: they speculated about where retirees might go. So the Philippines was included but Thailand wasn't, but there's no big rhyme, reason or rationale behind it. 

Disagree. PC British people hate Thailand ( read any British newspaper article about Thailand ) and British bureaucrats are right up there with the PC people.

I had an unfortunate experience with a nasty customs wonk that assumed that as a single man arriving from Thailand I was automatically a sex criminal.

I can only assume that they are too stupid to know that the Phillipines also has a huge P4P industry.

[cmsally]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

While I think you are on the right track, I disagree with some of your thoughts, eg

 

when the thinking folk come to the fore and try to reduce the total sum of human misery

 

Good hearted scientists ( thinking folk ) decided to stop people dying of easily cured disease, and were successful. Unfortunately they didn't convince such saved people not to breed at the level needed with a high mortality rate and the resultant extra 4 billion humans are now destroying everything on the planet. Sometimes thinking folk need to think about consequences.

Not many economic theories (well not the ones pushed by the media) that refer to overpopulation. It is becoming more and more evident especially if you return to a place after 10/20 yrs. I suppose because big business is relying on purchase numbers to keep them afloat and in profit.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 minutes ago, MadMuhammad said:

This comment is one of the most intelligent and truthful I've seen in all my time on TV.

 

This is a blueprint for never worrying about where your next dollar will come from. All markets rise and fall and some bottom out that low you'll be seriously considering access to the nearest condo rooftop.

 

But everything that falls rises again. Doesn't matter if it's the GFC, mass recession, war breaks out, whatever, it'll come back. You just gotta have the knowledge of what's a healthy investment (nothing's ever perfect but you can avoid the dogs with a little bit of planning), the balls to put something on the line and the guts to ride out the lows.

 

I've got a nicely diversified portfolio that has 3/4's of my liquid funds that's taken a little bit of a pounding this month (gotta love EOFY reporting season), the rest in cash and and a healthy property earning 15-17% capital growth year on year for the last 4.

 

I've had a major health scare, a relationship breakdown, been ripped off by my closest friends (for a decent amount I may add) and I have no income anymore but I can always rely on my capital growth and dividends from my portfolio. 

 

Cant recommend it enough.

Well, bully for you, but some of us don't want to gamble with our money in a fixed game. For everyone like you that makes money, millions don't. The 2007 crash destroyed millions of lives, destroyed pension funds and bankrupted countries.

All because of criminal bankers, none of which have received the jail sentences they so richly deserve.

Hardly deserving of gloating, is it?

[thaibeachlovers]

15 minutes ago, cmsally said:

Not many economic theories (well not the ones pushed by the media) that refer to overpopulation. It is becoming more and more evident especially if you return to a place after 10/20 yrs. I suppose because big business is relying on purchase numbers to keep them afloat and in profit.

There was a very interesting piece on Al Jazira a while back today that exposed the fact that most media is now owned by big business, and they focus on financial aspects favourable to big business.

 

While it is obvious to a blind man in a coalmine that overpopulation is destroying the environment that sustains us, ZERO is coming from our lords and masters about it. I have a theory, but TVF rules means I can't discuss it.

 

I suppose because big business is relying on purchase numbers to keep them afloat and in profit.

True. If one ever wondered why there are so many billionaires in the US and China, and so few ( if any ) in a country like New Zealand, just look at the populations. In China or the US someone only has to sell 10 million items at a $ each to become very rich, and that is a fraction of their population. NZ has only 4 million people so they are never going to get rich selling things to people at low prices. Even in poor countries with large populations, it is easy to get wealthy by selling high volumes of cheap items. Ever wonder how much money companies that's sell toothbrushes make- that's a potential market of 7 billion sold every couple of years or less.

Edited August 28, 2017 by thaibeachlovers

[OJAS]

5 hours ago, baansgr said:

Once Mark Carney goes and interest rates are increased even by a quarter point, Sterling will increase. Everytime Sterling gains ground, Carney spouts off something negative to bring it back down. hes been doing it since he was in office and will continue to do so. Sterling was 70-THB costs equate to 70% loss, anyone with a pension/income in 2009 of £1000 now needs £1,700 and that's without any domestic increases which in the same period have increased dramatically for everyday foodstuffs. Cut your clothe accordingly but even that's hard with a 70% downturn.

Unfortunately it appears to be a standard requirement of their job descriptions these days for BOE governors to blab their big mouths off every so often with comments aimed at keeping the value of sterling low, since Carney's predecessor, Mervyn King, was also prone to doing this. I therefore do not share your confidence that Carney's eventual successor will prove any different in this regard.

Edited August 28, 2017 by OJAS

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, OJAS said:

Unfortunately it appears to be a standard requirement of their job descriptions these days for BOE governors to blab their big mouths off every so often with comments aimed at keeping the value of sterling low, since Carney's predecessor, Mervyn King, was also prone to doing this.

Of course they want a low value currency. It makes it easier to sell stuff overseas. That it also hurts expats overseas does not, IMO, impact them an iota, sitting in their big offices and earning a huge salary.

[jeab1980]

2 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

30% of the 52% expected the immigrant's to be gone the next day based on the rubbish Boris 'Gove and Faranatang told them

Yeh and can you post a link to substantiate this claim please.

[Craig krup]

37 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Disagree. PC British people hate Thailand ( read any British newspaper article about Thailand ) and British bureaucrats are right up there with the PC people.

I had an unfortunate experience with a nasty customs wonk that assumed that as a single man arriving from Thailand I was automatically a sex criminal.

I can only assume that they are too stupid to know that the Phillipines also has a huge P4P industry.

 

I'm talking about way back in the late 50s early 60s. They interviewed (IIRC) one of the civil servants involved on Radio 4's "Moneybox". He admitted that they just guessed which countries to pick. 

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, Craig krup said:

 

I'm talking about way back in the late 50s early 60s. They interviewed (IIRC) one of the civil servants involved on Radio 4's "Moneybox". He admitted that they just guessed which countries to pick. 

Fair enough. I didn't know that. Apologies.

[Craig krup]

36 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Well, bully for you, but some of us don't want to gamble with our money in a fixed game. For everyone like you that makes money, millions don't. The 2007 crash destroyed millions of lives, destroyed pension funds and bankrupted countries.

All because of criminal bankers, none of which have received the jail sentences they so richly deserve.

Hardly deserving of gloating, is it?

And no matter what anyone says you won't slow down. 

 

1) Relying on crooked financial advisers, buying things you don't understand, trading, buying opaque nonsense, buying into trends...

 

2) Waiting until the sh1t hits the fan and City of London investment trust goes to a discount, with the FTSE way below 6,000, and buying steadily on near 5% yields, holding forever....

 

For you "1" and "2" are the same things, aren't they, and there's nothing to talk about? 

 

http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/city-of-london-investment-trust-ord-25p

 

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by Craig krup

[sammieuk1]

18 minutes ago, jeab1980 said:

Yeh and can you post a link to substantiate this claim please.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/robin-lustig/theresa-may-nasty-party-conservatives_b_12383338.html

[bobbin]

Craig krup...

 

I'm not a Brit, but I have just started reading this thread, as I have some British friends who unfortunately are being affected by the current situation.

 

I just wanted to post to say that I am enjoying the way you write, and what you are writing is tickling my remaining brain cells.

 

I have a reasonable amount of assets here in Thailand. A nice condo, a car, motorcycle, the big screen 4K television, blah blah. I've been here 15 years. But at least half of my money is in cash, in my home country, earning nothing or next to it. It makes me feel comfortable though, as I always have access to cash. It's not that I don't know anything about investing, as I have researched. BTW, what I came away with from that research was...buy ETFs. Low fees, spread the risk. But...

 

It scares me. I'm afraid that I'll screw it up somehow and lose most of my cash money. It's not particularly rational, as I know about inflation eating cash holdings. Add in FX fluctuations...

 

How does a guy like me pull the trigger? Whack in 20% like you say, and watch what happens? Get used to the sensation, and add on downturns?

 

Don't worry, I won't come looking for you if my fears are realized! 

 

Sorry, I just realized this might be going off topic.

Edited August 28, 2017 by bobbin