Govt Faces No-confidence

[sriracha john]

Seems like the coalition partners are also having difficulty with Noppadope's explanations....

Two ministers facing the axe

Noppadon, Mingkwan and others tipped to go in Cabinet shake-up

Key People Power Party figures agreed yesterday Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama and Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan, as well as five other Cabinet members, should be replaced to reduce mounting pressure on the government.

The conclusion was reached after a discussion between the ruling party's key men and former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party who are stripped of their electoral rights for five years, according to a PPP source.

The banned politicians have retained strong ties with their former colleagues, who are now key figures at the PPP, which is regarded as a reincarnation of the dissolved party.

It was agreed there should be a major Cabinet reshuffle after the censure debate in order to reduce pressure from the People's Alliance for Democracy, which is rallying outside Government House, and to prevent certain coalition parties from withdrawing, the source said.

The PPP had found smaller coalition parties appeared discontent with Noppadon's explanations over the Preah Vihear Temple controversy, according to the source. The Foreign Minister was accused by the opposition of putting Thailand in a risky position of losing more territory for his "active support" in Cambodia's bid to register the temple ruins as a World Heritage site.

Mingkwan, the source said, had become another target for replacement due to his "accumulative conflicts" with Deputy Commerce Minister Banyin Tangpaporn, who is from the coalition Matchima Thipataya Party.

"Noppadon and Mingkwan will be among the seven ministers expected to be replaced," said the source, who requested anonymity.

The source said the PPP leaders and former senior TRT members had urged former premier and TRT's ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra to ask Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej to reshuffle his Cabinet.

The goal was to allow the government to continue with its plan to amend the Constitution, which as a result would remove any legal obstacles to allow the TRT's 111 banned executives an early return to politics, according to the source.

Meanwhile, Chart Thai Party Leader Banharn Silpa-archa told MPs from his coalition party to vote in support of the Cabinet members targeted in the censure debate for the sake of government stability, a party source said.

"It is proper for Chart Thai as a coalition party. Whatever the consequences, we must offer support to allow the government to remain in office. We will look at the consequences later and what to do about it," Banharn was quoted as telling his party MPs at their meeting.

However, at least one Chart Thai MP yesterday expressed dissatisfaction at the Foreign Minister's explanations about the Preah Vihear controversy. Siripong Angkasakulkiat, who represents Si Sa Ket on the border with Cambodia, said Noppadon failed to answer some questions regarding his active support for Cambodia.

In a related development, government and opposition whips agreed yesterday to extend the censure debate another day, government chief whip Samart Kaewmeechai said. It was originally agreed the debate would continue until tonight with the voting held tomorrow, he said.

The House debate on the 2009 Budget Bill would be postponed to Saturday, scheduled to be the last day of the current extraordinary Parliamentary session, according to Samart.

- The Nation

[sriracha john]

Government is 'dead and buried'

As far as the media were concerned, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama were "defeated" in first day of the censure debate in the House of Representatives.

Headlines in almost all local newspapers backed the opposition Democrat Party saying Samak and Noppadon had lost the battle. The Democrat Party, like butchers, had chopped up the nominee government in Parliament, they said.

Evidence showed the government had lost national sovereignty to Cambodia in favour of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's business interests. Many columnists pointed out the controversial issue of the Preah Vihear temple was the killer point. Many newspapers devoted the majority of their space in yesterday's editions to the speeches and information provided by the speakers from the opposition.

It is widely know that Samak's government has no ability to communicate with the public, nor any ability to shape public opinion. Both Samak and his Foreign Minister Noppadon were seen in a negative light because of their connection to former Prime Minister Thaksin.

The public realised long ago they were doing everything to favour Thaksin. Foreign Minister Noppadon, who handled the Preah Vihear case, is a former legal advisor to Thaksin. His reputation as Thaksin's defender was locked into by the media.

Prime Minister Samak himself is a media unfriendly figure. He never offers sweet words. He was painted as a big-mouth politician. As usual, his behaviour in Parliament during the debate was aggressive and he never answered any questions.

He simply said: "I'm old, I know everything and nothing is wrong under my command."

Unlike Samak, Noppadon is media friendly and has made several attempts to get more coverage, but the media is unfriendly to him since he is too close to Thaksin. The Foreign Minister set up a war room at the ministry to help assemble data and information for his debate. Intellectually, the Oxford graduate has the background to cover the Preah Vihear issue in legal and diplomatic terms. Unfortunately, the minister failed to capture the headlines.

Tactically, the war room at the ministry is not aware of time management. Noppadon got a time slot for his clarification in Parliament that was too late to make the papers. He began his session at about 11pm on Tuesday. Very few newspapers were able to wait for his side of the story.

Of course, television viewers who saw the live show heard every word. But in this country, newspapers remain the opinion leaders. Television anchors pick up the headlines for their show every morning and lead public opinion along the lines of the newspapers.

- The Nation

[^_^]

It's kind of weird reading what I've seen and heard live regarding the No-Confidence debate on TV, and what the media reported

Frankly, just my personal preference, I would rather things turned out the way "The Nation" reported in which SJ posted

Anyway, it was kind of weird at the last 45mins before the debate ended tonight.

Usually, whichever a PPP's members got grilled by the Democrats, the PPP MPs would do their best to "Protest-Harass-Interrupt" the Democrat's speech. This has been the case since the debate started.

Weirdly, when it was Mingkwan's turn for grilling tonight at the last 45mins before the dabate ends, a more Senior Democrat MP grilled Mingkwan so badly and Mingkwan looked totally embarrased that he might have crawled under the table if he could...the expression on his face was...to me...at a loss, embarrassment or guilt(?). Surprisingly, NOT A SINGLE protest from his own PPP Party's MP protested!!! (maybe the rest of the PPP MPs has left becuase it's near ending time which was scheduled at 00.30?)

[Plus]

Merkat, I don't disagree with arguments you presented re. Phra Viharn, BUT, as Democrats had said - these arguments should be coming from Cambodia, not from Thai Foreign Minister.

Thailand has avoided publicly admitting defeat for nearly fifty years, Noppadon had singlehandedly abandoned this long held position.

This is not domestic politics, it's the whole country's face that is at stake. Thailand has always been firm on everything concerned with Phra Viharn, putting up strong resistance to any Cambodian moves regardless of their merits, Noppadon's capitulation is practically an act of treason, he capitulated without a fight, working behind the back of all other concerned parties.

Even now the military is prohibited from making comments on the issue, by Foreign Ministry.

To reitirate - it's not about reason, it's about abandoning long held stand.

[hammered]

)-->

QUOTE ( @ 2008-06-26 01:15:36) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's kind of weird reading what I've seen and heard live regarding the No-Confidence debate on TV, and what the media reported

Frankly, just my personal preference, I would rather things turned out the way "The Nation" reported in which SJ posted

Anyway, it was kind of weird at the last 45mins before the debate ended tonight.

Usually, whichever a PPP's members got grilled by the Democrats, the PPP MPs would do their best to "Protest-Harass-Interrupt" the Democrat's speech. This has been the case since the debate started.

Weirdly, when it was Mingkwan's turn for grilling tonight at the last 45mins before the dabate ends, a more Senior Democrat MP grilled Mingkwan so badly and Mingkwan looked totally embarrased that he might have crawled under the table if he could...the expression on his face was...to me...at a loss, embarrassment or guilt(?). Surprisingly, NOT A SINGLE protest from his own PPP Party's MP protested!!! (maybe the rest of the PPP MPs has left becuase it's near ending time which was scheduled at 00.30?)

Mingkwan has no support base in the PPP and he has upset powerful people in the party, so he will be left to suffer alone.

The Thai newspapers were quite frank in calling day one for the Dems.

[hammered]

)-->

QUOTE ( @ 2008-06-25 23:12:03) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the media is playing along with the tune of the PAD as I think none of the media likes the interference of the current government

Usually I used to turn on ASTV News 1 the whole day, and watch the evening News on other channel everyday so as to get a different point of view. Since the No-Confidence debate started yesterday, I've been following it throughout the whole session and currently still watching the debate on Economy stuff, and hasn't been following the News or ASTV News 1 since yesterday.

The Democrats started off really well for the first 8hrs straight yesterday regarding "Preah Vihear" which nearly made me started thinking of maybe declare war on Cambodia (just kidding!!!) BUT once Noppadol took the stand, the Democrat's 8hr's grilling went straight down the drain; what/how could you oppose against SOLID Legal Documents/Maps signed and approve by Thai Government Officials themselves?

Regardless what the press/media reported, having followed every seconds of the No-Confidence debate, I'll have to say...the Democrats really seems to have no "REAL" issue to debate at all!!! last of all...it was Abhisit whom requested to end the debate on the Preah Vihear issue because after Noppadol has shown/provide all the LEGAL Documents, Abhisit and his MPs doesn't really have anything else to debate on the issue!

As for today regarding No-Confidence debate against the Finance Minister, not a good start to have a not very experience young MP to make a nearly 3hrs speech with slightly more than 2hrs are all the old issue about how Taxsin and his family hide/sell their shares that was already reported on all medias which nobody in Thailand doesn't know of, and spent the last 30mins in closing his speech by reprimanding the current Finance Minister for not doing his job to look into such matters + not assigning the appropriate person to it's appropriate post related to handling the country Finance matters.

Well...ended up the Finance Minister took only 30-35mins to counter-debate which made him looks like Bill Gate 2 in the making

I have always supported the Democrats for their stance in not taking the bait to switch sides for their own benefits. Frankly speaking, I'm not too happy with their low-means way in the Debate against Samak and they should have been better prepared + finding better gound/issues for the debate.

Sadly, on the contrary, this debate has now become a stage for PPP to report/demonstrate/lie about how much "GOOD" they have done for the country

The Thai media reported day one as a day for the Dems. Day two is irrelevent in news terms as everything is overshadowed by the Thaksin lawyer jailing. Reading Thai newspapers it has been a bad two days for the PPP. How people did in a censure debate or any other debate is set by how it is reported. Most dont follow it fully in a highly informed way so as to be able to assess the real debate neutrally. Thailand is increasingly like the west where the control of the supply of information is paramount. TRT used to be very good at this but the current PPP lot are awful outside their control of the village headman network which shouldnt be overlooked when elections come around but which will have no influence at all on how local or internatioanl media interpret things.

The use of nationalism is a move to speak directly to the comon people by the opposition. Nationalism is a language understood by all Thais. Dangerous? Yes. Then again both PPP/TRT and PAD have also been using it in dangerous ways for some time now, so we cant expect anyone to politically disadvantage themselves by not indulging in the same.

[nomoretalksin]

ENGLISH POLITICAL PROGRAM tip:

after various requests on http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/ own "have your say", TOC agreed to rerun the very good program "HEADLINERS" (when do we get to hear good politicians speak in Thailand??) with the Democrats K. Korn (the should be Finance Minister).

I was since various times, quite impressed by him. If you want to hear some clever political opinions don't miss it TODAY:

Watch here online: http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/

25/06/08 : 18.00pm

26/06/08 : 02.00am:

Go Khun Korn and Khun Abhisit! Go! The main current political hope for Thailand's recovery.

PS/ I don't work with TOC

[Meerkat]

Merkat, I don't disagree with arguments you presented re. Phra Viharn, BUT, as Democrats had said - these arguments should be coming from Cambodia, not from Thai Foreign Minister.

How? It was Noppadom who has been put on the block to explain the issue, not the Cambodian government. You still seem to be of the mindset that Thailand has given something away; it hasn't.

Thailand has avoided publicly admitting defeat for nearly fifty years, Noppadon had singlehandedly abandoned this long held position.

So the fact that Thailand lost a case and kept the result hidden for 50 years is somehow someone's fault today? Thailand has always accepted (since the ICJ result) that the Temple itself is on Cambodian soil (if the claims I posted above are true that a Note was sent to the UN and that there was a Cabinet resolution in 1962 accepting the result). This is a completely separate issue from the continuing negotiations over the land border (which is, obviously, somewhere outside the Temple grounds). That issue is the contentious one. Even Abhisit himself has acknowledged that the ICJ has ruled that the Temple is in Cambodian territory. You also realise don't you that the joint communique (pdf) that seems to have stirred up so much trouble doesn't even mention the ICJ ruling, let alone admitting that Thailand lost it. So what did Noppadon abandon?

This is not domestic politics, it's the whole country's face that is at stake. Thailand has always been firm on everything concerned with Phra Viharn, putting up strong resistance to any Cambodian moves regardless of their merits, Noppadon's capitulation is practically an act of treason, he capitulated without a fight, working behind the back of all other concerned parties.

No. As I said in my last post, it was the Junta that said that Cambodia could seek appointment to the WH list alone and this year. They even went so far as to say that Thailand would offer assistance to Cambodia for their sole listing. Abhisit said that it was a mistake for this government to stray from previous governments on the issue, but it hasn't. It is only doing what the Junta set in motion (the negotiating team is virtually identical to the one the Junta put in place). I don't believe for one minute that Abhisit doesn't really know this (it's not as if the information is difficult to find) - if he really thinks Thailand has sold out, his ire would be directed at the Junta that set the whole ball rolling - where was his outrage then? But he's not of course; he's just fanning the flames of nationalism to try and turn the people against his opponents. That's the kind of irresponsible behaviour I'd expect from the leaders of the PAD, not the elected leader of the Opposition, but sadly it seems that all sides in politics here use this tool as they see fit.

Even now the military is prohibited from making comments on the issue, by Foreign Ministry.

I didn't know about that - could you provide a source please? I don't know if it's normal for the military to comment on government policy (except when they are the government of course), but the National Security Council has already OK'd the map, as has the Royal Thai Survey (which I think also comes under the military).

To reitirate - it's not about reason, it's about abandoning long held stand.

Agreed it's certainly not about reason (or treason), but if you want to blame anyone for abandoning a long held stand (which I still maintain they didn't), point your finger at the Junta.

[hammered]

Merkat, I don't disagree with arguments you presented re. Phra Viharn, BUT, as Democrats had said - these arguments should be coming from Cambodia, not from Thai Foreign Minister.

How? It was Noppadom who has been put on the block to explain the issue, not the Cambodian government. You still seem to be of the mindset that Thailand has given something away; it hasn't.

Thailand has avoided publicly admitting defeat for nearly fifty years, Noppadon had singlehandedly abandoned this long held position.

So the fact that Thailand lost a case and kept the result hidden for 50 years is somehow someone's fault today? Thailand has always accepted (since the ICJ result) that the Temple itself is on Cambodian soil (if the claims I posted above are true that a Note was sent to the UN and that there was a Cabinet resolution in 1962 accepting the result). This is a completely separate issue from the continuing negotiations over the land border (which is, obviously, somewhere outside the Temple grounds). That issue is the contentious one. Even Abhisit himself has acknowledged that the ICJ has ruled that the Temple is in Cambodian territory. You also realise don't you that the joint communique (pdf) that seems to have stirred up so much trouble doesn't even mention the ICJ ruling, let alone admitting that Thailand lost it. So what did Noppadon abandon?

This is not domestic politics, it's the whole country's face that is at stake. Thailand has always been firm on everything concerned with Phra Viharn, putting up strong resistance to any Cambodian moves regardless of their merits, Noppadon's capitulation is practically an act of treason, he capitulated without a fight, working behind the back of all other concerned parties.

No. As I said in my last post, it was the Junta that said that Cambodia could seek appointment to the WH list alone and this year. They even went so far as to say that Thailand would offer assistance to Cambodia for their sole listing. Abhisit said that it was a mistake for this government to stray from previous governments on the issue, but it hasn't. It is only doing what the Junta set in motion (the negotiating team is virtually identical to the one the Junta put in place). I don't believe for one minute that Abhisit doesn't really know this (it's not as if the information is difficult to find) - if he really thinks Thailand has sold out, his ire would be directed at the Junta that set the whole ball rolling - where was his outrage then? But he's not of course; he's just fanning the flames of nationalism to try and turn the people against his opponents. That's the kind of irresponsible behaviour I'd expect from the leaders of the PAD, not the elected leader of the Opposition, but sadly it seems that all sides in politics here use this tool as they see fit.

Even now the military is prohibited from making comments on the issue, by Foreign Ministry.

I didn't know about that - could you provide a source please? I don't know if it's normal for the military to comment on government policy (except when they are the government of course), but the National Security Council has already OK'd the map, as has the Royal Thai Survey (which I think also comes under the military).

To reitirate - it's not about reason, it's about abandoning long held stand.

Agreed it's certainly not about reason (or treason), but if you want to blame anyone for abandoning a long held stand (which I still maintain they didn't), point your finger at the Junta.

This is about politcs. Its not about facts -whatever they are. Nationalism as the excelllent article in the Post today points out is the language of the people and hey politicians use it and it works. We can sit on TV and debate the "facts" all we want but the reality is people dont care what is on some map drawn up by some foreigners when they think it should be theirs, and dont expect polticians of any party to pass up an opportunity like this.

[younghusband]

I agree with general tenor of the above replies, and by the way thanks Meerkat for the excellent summary.Clearly on a substantive basis this is just banana republic nonsense which could easily be replicated for some Mayan ruins on the border by a couple of flea blown South American countries.If you want a European example think of Greece objecting to another country using the term "Macedonia".Anyway having said that, I think it's perfectly acceptable for the Dems to have a bit of knockabout fun at Noppadol's expense in parliament.But if this is the substance of the censure procedure it makes the PAD leadership look even more ridiculous than they already are.Incidentally I see from the Bangkok Post that the old criminal General Sonthi -remember him- is sidling up to his chums Chamlong and Sondhi.Gives some credibility to the international reports that PAD is really just a cover for the reactionary interests that launched a coup but botched the subsequent election.Perhaps the PAD agenda is more sinister than I had thought, not really counting the slightly dim mass supporters (akin to Lenin's useful fools).Having failed to provoke violence or some other coup excuse (don't think the military are interested now anyway) one wonders what this unsavoury baseball bat wielding mob will do now as the rainy season approaches.

[Meerkat]

This is about politcs. Its not about facts -whatever they are. Nationalism as the excelllent article in the Post today points out is the language of the people and hey politicians use it and it works. We can sit on TV and debate the "facts" all we want but the reality is people dont care what is on some map drawn up by some foreigners when they think it should be theirs, and dont expect polticians of any party to pass up an opportunity like this.

I agree of course (and yes it was an excellent article - I wonder if one of the mass circulation Thai language dailies would have the balls to print something so damning of society here; I'd hope so but would fear not).

In the meantime though I'll continue to try and debate the "facts" here until I'm blue in the face!

[Meerkat]

I agree with general tenor of the above replies, and by the way thanks Meerkat for the excellent summary.Clearly on a substantive basis this is just banana republic nonsense which could easily be replicated for some Mayan ruins on the border by a couple of flea blown South American countries.If you want a European example think of Greece objecting to another country using the term "Macedonia".Anyway having said that, I think it's perfectly acceptable for the Dems to have a bit of knockabout fun at Noppadol's expense in parliament.But if this is the substance of the censure procedure it makes the PAD leadership look even more ridiculous than they already are.Incidentally I see from the Bangkok Post that the old criminal General Sonthi -remember him- is sidling up to his chums Chamlong and Sondhi.Gives some credibility to the international reports that PAD is really just a cover for the reactionary interests that launched a coup but botched the subsequent election.Perhaps the PAD agenda is more sinister than I had thought, not really counting the slightly dim mass supporters (akin to Lenin's useful fools).Having failed to provoke violence or some other coup excuse (don't think the military are interested now anyway) one wonders what this unsavoury baseball bat wielding mob will do now as the rainy season approaches.

Thank you, but as I stated in an earlier post on the subject, much of the original research came from Pundit's blog, so he deserves most of the credit for trying to clarify the issue.

Interestingly, seeing as you mention the PAD, he recently also pointed out this article in Thai Rath by one of the PAD leaders, Suriyasai Katasila, in which he proposes that Thai governments should be only 30% elected, and 70% selected. I wonder who he thinks should do the selecting.

No doubt the PAD will soon be changing it's name to the People's Alliance for Meritocracy...or Oligarchy.

[hammered]

This is about politcs. Its not about facts -whatever they are. Nationalism as the excelllent article in the Post today points out is the language of the people and hey politicians use it and it works. We can sit on TV and debate the "facts" all we want but the reality is people dont care what is on some map drawn up by some foreigners when they think it should be theirs, and dont expect polticians of any party to pass up an opportunity like this.

I agree of course (and yes it was an excellent article - I wonder if one of the mass circulation Thai language dailies would have the balls to print something so damning of society here; I'd hope so but would fear not).

In the meantime though I'll continue to try and debate the "facts" here until I'm blue in the face!

Not disputing anyone right to debate the facts;)

It is a bit exasperrating that Nationalism goes so far but .....

[Plus]

Thailand didn't need to cooperate with Cambodia on the listing bid. If Cambodians wanted it, they should have come begging and Thais could have set any number of conditions. Thailand had an upper hand and Noppadon gave it up.

He, btw, replaced Thail chief negotiator for no reason whatsoever, so it's absolutely not true that the team was "virtually identical".

Thais could have expressed their support in public but kept stalling the issue until they got something substantial in return, something I suspect the previous team tried to do. Noppadon had other ideas, he wanted to assist Thaksin with investment in Koh Kong's casino, so he came to a mutual agreement with Cambodians.

So here's the result - Cambodians win, Thaksin wins, Thailand loses. There was an example of a headline in Cambodian newspaper stating something similar, I saw it mentioned about a week or two ago.

Now, I admit that linking the temple listing to casino is a bit of a stretch, legally, but it looks like the most likely trade off at the moment. Noppadon hasn't presented any other benefits from his support for the listing anyway.

>>>

Comment about military is from a paper Nation from a couple of days ago, I'll check it when I get home.

>>>

Again, it's not about facts or maps, it's about the ability to control the situation and manipulate your partner. Cambodians did it brilliantly, Thais have screwed, again. They can't get any leverage over Burma and now Cambodians are taking them for a ride.

[Meerkat]

Thailand didn't need to cooperate with Cambodia on the listing bid. If Cambodians wanted it, they should have come begging and Thais could have set any number of conditions. Thailand had an upper hand and Noppadon gave it up.

No I still don't think you understand the basic premise. The Temple is in Cambodia. That's it. That fact wasn't in dispute during the Junta's talks with Cambodia. That fact isn't in dispute now. [OK well maybe it is at a mom and pop level, and everyone else who doesn't understand the principle of final without leave of appeal]

Cambodia, by virtue of the ICJ ruling (which, again, is past appeal) gives the right to Cambodia to list the Temple as a WHS unilaterally, whether Thailand likes it or not. When they originally tried to do so, Thailand rightfully protested as the map back then included certain areas which were still in dispute (and still are). Cambodia went back to the drawing board and revised the map so that the boundaries no longer included that disputed land and only covered the Temple itself. So in effect you've got it backwards - Cambodia didn't need Thailand to cooperate on the listing bid. The fact that there is cooperation on such a delicate issue is a good thing, and is thanks to the skills of our negotiating team (yes, I mean the Junta's first and foremost)

Cambodia could now quite happily go ahead and list the site on its own, however talks between the two nations were held so as (to paraphrase the Junta's Foreign Minister), make the listing a win-win situation for both sides. Thailand had tried to get Cambodia to make the listing a dual one (ie they tried to de facto claim dual-sovereignty of the site in spite of the ICJ ruling), but Cambodia, hardly surprisingly, refused.

You still seem to believe that Cambodia could not have listed the site without Thailand's support. That is simply not true. So quite what you expected Thailand to be able to squeeze out of Cambodia I don't know.

He, btw, replaced Thail chief negotiator for no reason whatsoever, so it's absolutely not true that the team was "virtually identical".

Correct (although I don't know if he had reason or not to take charge), but I believe that apart from Noppadom the team is unchanged. That's why I said "virtually". "Unchanged apart from the Foreign Minister taking over in charge" is probably a better phraseology I'll grant you - I hope you'll understand I'm not trying to spin this any way, just trying to provide the facts as I see them.

Thais could have expressed their support in public but kept stalling the issue until they got something substantial in return, something I suspect the previous team tried to do. Noppadon had other ideas, he wanted to assist Thaksin with investment in Koh Kong's casino, so he came to a mutual agreement with Cambodians.

So here's the result - Cambodians win, Thaksin wins, Thailand loses. There was an example of a headline in Cambodian newspaper stating something similar, I saw it mentioned about a week or two ago.

Now, I admit that linking the temple listing to casino is a bit of a stretch, legally, but it looks like the most likely trade off at the moment. Noppadon hasn't presented any other benefits from his support for the listing anyway.

>>>

Comment about military is from a paper Nation from a couple of days ago, I'll check it when I get home.

>>>

Again, it's not about facts or maps, it's about the ability to control the situation and manipulate your partner. Cambodians did it brilliantly, Thais have screwed, again. They can't get any leverage over Burma and now Cambodians are taking them for a ride.

You know what? There may well be a link between the communique and Thaksin. None of us here knows (although naturally those who truly detest the man will immediately link it even in the absence of any evidence). But as I've already said, it was the Junta who in their joint UNESCO declaration I linked to earlier, stated that the unilateral Cambodian nomination for the site should go ahead, with active Thai support, for this year's WH meeting. That means before July 2nd - little over a week away. The claims that it was rushed through solely to benefit Thaksin and Hun Sen are specious. Unless you think the Junta was in cahoots with Thaksin of course... I'll go further and say that it is my opinion that had the Dems won the election, we'd also be seeing the exact same application by Cambodia, also with Thai help. Oh, and the PPP would be up in arms over Thailand selling out...

Oddly enough (again linked to in an earlier post of mine here), it looks like a lot of Cambodians reckon they got the wrong end of the deal at the expense of Thailand. Sadly that's what often happens in situations like this.

To say that Thailand got screwed though, when it didn't even have a legal leg to stand on with regards to the site, is IMO just mistaken, but further propagated in some areas of the press.

As far as I can make out, the only possible thing the Dems have against the PPP on the issue is whether the communique should have gone through parliament first. The Constitution states that if it resulted in a change of the Thai boundaries it should. Strictly on that basis I don't believe there's a case, but there are other situations in the Constitution that merit parliamentary procedure too, the minutiae of which more able men than me can fathom. I certainly think that Abhisit's decision to appeal to the Constitutional Court over the matter is fit and proper.

[samran]

Meerkat, a couple of points:

- Great summary. You seem to be on top of it. Though from a raw politics angle, the Dems have struck a blow in the public conciousness about the temple and the possibility that Thaksin may have benefited from it. True or not, they've managed to discredit the PPP in a way which will be hard for them to change. Is it fatal for them? We shall see.

- One question. What do you make of Abhisits claim during his speech about disputed sea boundries. At one point he said that PTT, at the behest of the government, made an application to the Cambo government for a concession to explore a certain portion of the seabed in disputed territory. If I understood it correctly, Abhisits point was that given Thailand disputes the area in question, by ordering PTT to make an application for the concession, the government has de-facto recognised Cambodias claim over the portion of disputed seabed.

[Meerkat]

Meerkat, a couple of points:

- Great summary. You seem to be on top of it. Though from a raw politics angle, the Dems have struck a blow in the public conciousness about the temple and the possibility that Thaksin may have benefited from it. True or not, they've managed to discredit the PPP in a way which will be hard for them to change. Is it fatal for them? We shall see.

Thank you. Yes undeniably it's done damage to the PPP. I also think that Noppadom could have tried to win over the public better about the whole issue. I recognize that international diplomacy everywhere largely happens behind closed doors and out of the public eye (and there are good reasons for that), but he has completely failed to put Thailand's case across effectively to his own people. I'd allow him some leeway because the censure motion happened so quickly that he was pretty-much always on the defensive, but only so much. Assuming he gets through the censure motion, cabinet reshuffle, Constitutional Court ruling and potential subsequent impeachment intact (phew), that's what he should do (for Thai-Cambodian relations, not his own or the PPP's backside).

- One question. What do you make of Abhisits claim during his speech about disputed sea boundries. At one point he said that PTT, at the behest of the government, made an application to the Cambo government for a concession to explore a certain portion of the seabed in disputed territory. If I understood it correctly, Abhisits point was that given Thailand disputes the area in question, by ordering PTT to make an application for the concession, the government has de-facto recognised Cambodias claim over the portion of disputed seabed.

That's the absolute first I've heard of it. Was it today, as I've not read anything in the English language press on the matter? I'm not an international lawyer (or any lawyer for that matter), so my posts are, as I said earlier on, only my interpretation of the "facts" as I see them.

That being said, yes I'd think that in theory it's quite possible that these kind of deals are what the ICJ look at when forming a territorial dispute judgement. Of course I see no reason though why for instance it would not be possible to add a rider to such an application to the end that, "Whilst we consider the area our own, we also recognize that you lot think the same way, but in the spirit of being good neighbours, our application in no way compromises our claim etc..." As long as both sides signed it, that might negate such a concession in the ICJ's eyes. See? I've just taken 50 words to say "I don't know"!

Wouldn't it be ironic though if, instead of a land dispute that whips up the nation's national sentiment (wrongly), it turns out that the government actually has compromised Thai sovereignty over something completely different...

[Plus]

Meerkat, yet again you argue facts, not positions. In diplomacy they have positions to defend, not facts, it's not a discussion board where we try to be objective.

Thailand's long standing position was quiet disagreement with ICJ ruling. Any proposals from Cambodia on the matter were to be stonewalled. Thais would stall and disagree just as a matter of principle.

I've read somewhere that there was no way Cambodia could have listed the temple on its own, Thailand's objections would have effectively buried it.

So, from Thailand's point of view there is no rush to accomodate them in return for nothing. Thais can play their "wounded pride" hand indefinitely, and, as you rightly pointed out, joint listing bid would somehow recognise Thai's claims to the temple, if only phsychologically.

I believe that was what the previous negotiator was doing, before being replaced by Noppadon to speed up things. I can dig up his name and the name of a preson Noppadon put as his replacement, it was a big news at the time. There was definitely a worry that Phra Viharn negotiations would suffer as that guy was believed to be the most capable on the Thai team.

Now we see that this is exactly how it played out - with a big controversy that might cost Noppadon his post.

[sriracha john]

The Leaders defense only confirms the doctor's diagnosis....

PM denies he's mentally sick

PM Samak fiercely defended his mental and physical health yesterday, insisting he is fit and capable of leading the government. His assertion came after Democrat MP Malinee Sukvejworakij, who is a doctor of medicine, told the House Samak showed symptoms of a mental deficiency and behaviour disorder. He should take leave and get treatment for the sake of the country, she said. She held aloft a book, Phu Puay Pok Krong Loke (Sick People who Ruled the World), as the Democrats attacked Samak for his "aggressive behaviour and bad temper." Samak fought back with, "You can ask the Cabinet whether I am fit to administer the country. Would you like to compete with me in a brain game, like a memory test?" he said. *given Samak's recall of the 1976 protest deaths, perhaps memory is not his strong suit* Dr Malinee said there was medical evidence to confirm that his glaring at reporters and ordering cake and red cordial drinks like a child reflected a low IQ and low emotional quotient. She referred to Samak's moody look prior to a luncheon with coalition partners early this month. "A leader needs both mental and physical strength. Samak should take a break to seek medical help," she said. Samak maintained he had quarterly health examinations, adding that his surname means "good doctor." *there you go, that's a universally-accepted proof positive of someone's mental state..... their last name* "If I am crazy because I glare at reporters, then all actors in soap operas will have gone mad, they glare at each other all the time. And there's no point worrying about my liking red drinks." :D Later, Democrat MP Theptai Senpong said Samak was immature, impolite and rude to both Thai and foreign reporters. *eg. the various video links posted * He broke false news such as a coup in the making and a bank going under, and apologised afterward for the damage. A court gave him a 2-year jail term (suspended) for falsely accusing former Science and Technology Minister Damrong Latthapipat of involvement with drugs. He also is appealing a conviction for defaming Bangkok Deputy Governor Samart Ratchapolsitte.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/260608_News/26Jun2008_news07.php

Edited June 27, 2008 by sriracha john

[samran]

Meerkat, a couple of points:

- Great summary. You seem to be on top of it. Though from a raw politics angle, the Dems have struck a blow in the public conciousness about the temple and the possibility that Thaksin may have benefited from it. True or not, they've managed to discredit the PPP in a way which will be hard for them to change. Is it fatal for them? We shall see.

Thank you. Yes undeniably it's done damage to the PPP. I also think that Noppadom could have tried to win over the public better about the whole issue. I recognize that international diplomacy everywhere largely happens behind closed doors and out of the public eye (and there are good reasons for that), but he has completely failed to put Thailand's case across effectively to his own people. I'd allow him some leeway because the censure motion happened so quickly that he was pretty-much always on the defensive, but only so much. Assuming he gets through the censure motion, cabinet reshuffle, Constitutional Court ruling and potential subsequent impeachment intact (phew), that's what he should do (for Thai-Cambodian relations, not his own or the PPP's backside).

- One question. What do you make of Abhisits claim during his speech about disputed sea boundries. At one point he said that PTT, at the behest of the government, made an application to the Cambo government for a concession to explore a certain portion of the seabed in disputed territory. If I understood it correctly, Abhisits point was that given Thailand disputes the area in question, by ordering PTT to make an application for the concession, the government has de-facto recognised Cambodias claim over the portion of disputed seabed.

That's the absolute first I've heard of it. Was it today, as I've not read anything in the English language press on the matter? I'm not an international lawyer (or any lawyer for that matter), so my posts are, as I said earlier on, only my interpretation of the "facts" as I see them.

That being said, yes I'd think that in theory it's quite possible that these kind of deals are what the ICJ look at when forming a territorial dispute judgement. Of course I see no reason though why for instance it would not be possible to add a rider to such an application to the end that, "Whilst we consider the area our own, we also recognize that you lot think the same way, but in the spirit of being good neighbours, our application in no way compromises our claim etc..." As long as both sides signed it, that might negate such a concession in the ICJ's eyes. See? I've just taken 50 words to say "I don't know"!

Wouldn't it be ironic though if, instead of a land dispute that whips up the nation's national sentiment (wrongly), it turns out that the government actually has compromised Thai sovereignty over something completely different...

It was in the first days play. Abhisit mentioned it, but was more intent on hammering the temple issue for all its political worth (and rightly so).

As for irony, the sale of Shincorp was what led to the beginning of the end last time for Thaksin. The sale was totally legit in my eyes, but not in the Thai peoples.

[Meerkat]

Meerkat, yet again you argue facts, not positions. In diplomacy they have positions to defend, not facts, it's not a discussion board where we try to be objective.

Confused by this. Surely diplomatic positions in a case like this have to be based upon the underlying facts.

Thailand's long standing position was quiet disagreement with ICJ ruling. Any proposals from Cambodia on the matter were to be stonewalled. Thais would stall and disagree just as a matter of principle.

Disagreement, but grudging acceptance is probably more accurate. Remember the government accepted the ruling to the UN in 1962 (according to the MFA anyway).

I've read somewhere that there was no way Cambodia could have listed the temple on its own, Thailand's objections would have effectively buried it.

Find me a link then that Thailand could have done that based upon the revised map then (non op-ed if possible please; the English language press here has been pathetic in trying to explain the issues)! It was the Junta, not the PPP, that got this WH nomination started (for Cambodia alone), and the Junta who advised "active help".

So, from Thailand's point of view there is no rush to accomodate them in return for nothing. Thais can play their "wounded pride" hand indefinitely, and, as you rightly pointed out, joint listing bid would somehow recognise Thai's claims to the temple, if only phsychologically.

Which is why Cambodia rightfully refused a joint listing when asked by Thailand. As far as "no rush" - again, it was the Junta that recommended that Cambodia's sole listing be finalised by next week.

I believe that was what the previous negotiator was doing, before being replaced by Noppadon to speed up things. I can dig up his name and the name of a preson Noppadon put as his replacement, it was a big news at the time. There was definitely a worry that Phra Viharn negotiations would suffer as that guy was believed to be the most capable on the Thai team.

No. The previous negotiator was the one who was in charge at the time that Cambodia refused Thailand's request for a joint listing. And again, for the nth time, it was the Junta who determined that the listing go ahead in Cambodia's name only (not that they had any choice in the matter). Linked yet again (large pdf - pages 153/154).

Now we see that this is exactly how it played out - with a big controversy that might cost Noppadon his post.

I'm sorry Plus but I can't help but think that you've made up your mind based solely upon your prejudice against the PPP, even in spite of the mountain of evidence to the contrary. Fair enough, that's your prerogative. I only hope the government do a better job of explaining the issue to the public than I've obviously managed here (and than the job they've already done).

[sriracha john]

Thai Commerce Minister blasted for not solving rice, fertiliser pricing

Commerce and Deputy Prime Minister Mingkwan Saengsuwan has been heavily criticised by the opposition Democrat Party in the third day of the parliamentary censure debate for his failure to solve Thailand's rice and fertiliser pricing challenges.

Democrat MP Trairong Suwanakhiri took the stage to blame Mingkwan for causing confusion among farmers in his attempted intervention in rice prices.

He said that while the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand rushed to cope with rising inflation, the Commerce Minister had attempted to solve the problem of the poor prices realised by the nation's rice farmers by intervening in the market mechanism.

The minister-initiated scheme to bring packed rice for sale at discount prices in department stores and his repeated projections for the upward trend of rice prices had made farmers feel confused and affected market prices.

"The distribution of rice at discount prices in the market has satisfied a handful of people, but it made foreign clients slow their purchase orders because they misinterpreted that the Thai government had a substantial stock of rice and was trying to keep the rice price lower.

"When rice millers received few purchase orders, they refused to buy rice from some farmers. It resulted in a sharp drop in the rice prices," he said.

"Additionally, his warning for farmers to slow selling their rice because its price would reach 30,000 baht per tonne quickly made some millers reluctant to sell rice to exporters. It caused damage because the exporters missed overseas sales."

The opposition lawmaker warned the minister of the chaos to be seen at the end of this year if he failed to sell out 2.1 million tonnes of rice in stock.

He said existing government warehouses are insufficient to store the huge amount of rice to be harvested in this second crop season.

Unless the government rushes to sell out the rice in stock, it would definitely lead to chaos later this year, he said.

Mr. Trairong also attributed the sharp rise in fertiliser prices to the minister's mismanagement and ignorance of how to deal with the problem.

Commerce Minister Mingkwan had never come to supervise and control fertiliser prices in a definite and effective way, he said.

However, Mingkwan refuted all the accusations levelled against him, saying all that economic policies have been implemented honest manner in an attempt to help alleviate hardships for both consumers and farmers.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Chai Chidchob said he expected the vote on the no-confidence motion would likely take place at 9.30 am on Friday. (TNA)

[Farma]

Thai PM survives no-confidence vote

June 27, 2008 02:19pm

THAI Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and seven cabinet colleagues won a vote of no-confidence in parliament today.

Samak, who took over from a military-run administration four months ago, gained a simple majority of MPs in an electronic ballot.

"There are 442 MPs attending today's meeting. One hundred and sixty-two voted against Samak and 280 voted to support Prime Minister Samak,'' House Speaker Chai Chidchob told parliament.

"Therefore Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej can continue his premiership.''

Seven cabinet ministers comfortably won separate votes of no-confidence against them.

"The censure debate is now complete and all cabinet members retain their posts,'' Chai said.

Cont http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...5003402,00.html

[ThaiAdventure]

Cabinate re-shuffle next to quell the pleas to resign?

[nomoretalksin]

Cabinate re-shuffle next to quell the pleas to resign?

Look at the voting numbers in the breaking news of "The Nation" (don't even understand why they care to list them each individual?) now.

All nearly same numbers. This cleary shows us that this isn't democracy (or individual parlament opinions) here at work; rather what the top guy says will be followed by the party leaders and PM himself. No chance currently to change anything in Thailand, until the recently awoken court systems continue to do their job (see/read HRM speach just a couple of days ago).

Good luck my beloved Thailand, you deserve justice.

Edited June 27, 2008 by nomoretalksin

[Jefferson]

All nearly same numbers. This cleary shows us that this isn't democracy (or individual parlament opinions) here at work; rather what the top guy says will be followed by the party leaders and PM himself.

And this is different from anywhere else in the world, how?

You expect PPP MP's to vote away their own government? Dream on, no matter what country in the world it is you're commenting on........ Thought that'd be a no brainer.

[hammered]

Now there will probably be a cabinet reshuffle. Wouldnt be happening on July 2 by any chance would it? The PPP do need to try to recapture a bit of lost public faith to ensure they can continue their agenda with less opposition even if it is only in the short term.

I would guess the PPP will now be looking to ways to get their constitution ammendment through. The courts have not exactly signified they are going to go light on Thaksin this week. They will want the ammendments before the next election. I would also guess the bureaucracy are happy that Samak is still in position so he can oversee the military reshuffle thereby probably keeping Thaksin control at a distance from the army. It will however be interesting to see if the court cases come before the constitution ammendment or the other way round, and of course if the constitution is ammended the courts will also probably end up deciding on whether the court cases that were made before the ammendment fall or not over is law retroactive or not in case.

The interesting bit of the debate for me was how the PPP and Dems swopped tradional roles with this time the PPP arguing the technical case that the middle classes usually listen to and the Dems using raw common talk - this time nationalism - that the masses usually listen to. How this impacts in the future remains to be seen.

We also see with a split in the old anti-Thaksin movement - beauracracy working with Samak, PAD minus lots of old support, and the middle classes, southerners and easterners lying relatively low. This may embolden the PPP right now but one mistep and the old alliance could easily come together again. The PPP have to take seriously the economy now as this could really cause them problems. The Dems have come through the debate probably slightly strengthened but will need to maintain their position in the limelight as defenders of the nations territory, in at least some eyes of those who dont usually back the party, if they dont want to see this to be a short lived phenomenon. No doubt the descent into nationalistic rhetoric will only grow bigger as the PPP wont want to be outnationalismed for long.

Times are still interesting and although the government have survived they are still not in total control of things and neither are their divided opponents, so we can probably expect a lenghtened impasse with afew unexpecteds along the way. In short the censure debate hasnt changed anything much just some slight damage to PPP that may only be temporary.

[hammered]

Quotemeister Thitinan has a piece up at the Bangkok Post:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=128564

Well worth a read in full but it concludes with:

Even if he manages a significant cabinet reshuffle and more responsive policy measures, Mr Samak will still be pressed by the PAD and its anti-government allies in parliament. His endgame will be drawn out but its denouement is likely weeks away. The key now is not whether he will be forced out well before his term ends, but how Mr Samak intends to leave the stage.

Foremost in his mind should be a transition that is within parliamentary and constitutional boundaries, not the detour and short cut that the PAD is demanding in the name of a warped paradigm called Thailand's so-called "new politics" of less representation and more nomination and appointment.

[Plus]

Meerkat, yet again you argue facts, not positions. In diplomacy they have positions to defend, not facts, it's not a discussion board where we try to be objective.

Confused by this. Surely diplomatic positions in a case like this have to be based upon the underlying facts.

Not at all. Facts can be twisted this way and that and argued until cows come home, especially in Thai or broader South Asian context. It's a show of will and strength and face and what not and facts are routinely ignored.

I have a PM in my inbox that argues the facts in the opposite way with buch of links and references, I'm not posting them only because facts don't really matter here.

Which is why Cambodia rightfully refused a joint listing when asked by Thailand. As far as "no rush" - again, it was the Junta that recommended that Cambodia's sole listing be finalised by next week.

At that time it was "next year", as in "we promise.. really" - a perfect excuse for a delay, and they could have stalled it even further without any problem - just refuse to agree on a map or something else. It was Cambodia's rush, not Thailand's.

The previous negotiator was the one who was in charge at the time that Cambodia refused Thailand's request for a joint listing. And again, for the nth time, it was the Junta who determined that the listing go ahead in Cambodia's name only

Yes, sure - they just sent Cambodians to do some more homework to win time. There are millions of territorial disputes around the world, they usual MO is to stall and not budge an inch, no matter what.

I'm sorry Plus but I can't help but think that you've made up your mind based solely upon your prejudice against the PPP..

This is a perfect example of how one can defend his position even if all the facts are going against you. Something Thailand should have done with Phra Viharn. They don't need to be objective, it's not their goal. Their goal is to make Cambodian court victory as painful for them as possible, and keep Thailand in a pole barganing position.

[ham]

HE11 I don't know anybody who has any confidence in any of these clowns.

Bunch of idiots.

kinda like everywhere else when looking over the own garden a bit, I mean globally! Somebody really wondering? I'm not at all! Just watching it.