jas007

Sooner or later, both Xi and Trump are going to come to the conclusion that the tariff nonsense is not good and has to stop. Will they admit that publicly? Probably not, but you can be sure a pathway to a deal will be found. My guess: Trump is all bravado at times, but no one really knows what he's thinking. That's a good thing and works to his advantage. But. he needs for this to end. As for Xi? He probably needs to make a deal even more than Trump does, and a way will be found for that to happen. My guess: China will agree to a set of terms that seems to satisfy Trump. After that, they'll go back to China and continue business as usual, as they always do. They have a recent history of doing just that, right? They'll agree to anything, and then return more or less to business as usual. Bottom line: a way will be found to end the standoff, as a cessation of trade between the US and China is in no one's interest.

Agreed. Maybe he's been so informed and has moved on at this point.

I don't pay Bloomberg a cent and I can look it up, click on that link, and read it just fine. And if you don't want to try that, here's the headline: China Warns Nations Not to Cut US Trade Deals at Its Expense Or, try this: https://www.reuters.com/world/china-opposes-any-deals-between-us-other-nations-its-expense-2025-04-21/

What do you call this, if not a threat to the Western nations? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/china-warns-countries-not-to-cut-deals-with-us-at-its-expense?sref=eo0IIyEe&embedded-checkout=true

The fact is, they're talking to the Trump administration and they want to make a deal. Whether they actually sign one doesn't seem all that important. The intent is there. As for China's threats to the West? Sure, they can threaten all they want, but that's all they are. Threats. They can't possibly believe that they'll be taken seriously. Like I say, the threats are an act of desperation and suggest that China is at the end of its rope if idle threats is all they can come up with.

Yes another act of desperation by the Chinese. Do they seriously think they can threaten the entire Western World? Western leaders are already in talks with the Trump administration. They want to make a deal, and they'll get a deal. And slowly, China will be forced to negotiate. That's coming sooner than many people seem to think

You're right. It's called Sky Beach, I think. Anyway, it's near Wongamat Beach.

That's hardly the point, though. The discussion is about Signal and his use of it.

Supposedly, both Signal chats occurred around the same time. So, maybe he has now moved on to more secure forms of communication?

Those were two different days.

There's a new restaurant the recently opened up sort of across from the Star Beach Condo. On Soi Saranchol. Anyway, it looked interesting, so I thought I'd try it. So far, I've been there a few times. Not too bad for anyone looking for something new and different. The menu is hard to describe. Thai food, Western Food, and Fusion? food. Anyway, it's different. You can sit outside and watch the world go by, or if it's too hot, the inside is air conditioned. Hawaiian pizza. Not too. bad. And Tom Yum Goong spaghetti with shrimp. Nit noi spicy.

Supposedly, the JD Vance "meeting" with the Pope was just a photo op. Before that, the Pope sent someone else to lecture Vance on compassion. Anyway, and for what it's worth, the Jesuits have a long history of meddling in politics. And for a while, they were more or less banned from most of Europe for that reason. For anyone who's interested, there's a halfway decent movie about the Jesuits in New France when they were first building what later became Quebec. 1634. The movie is called Black Robe, and you can watch it all for free on YouTube. If nothing else, it has some beautiful scenery.

RIP. Strange timing, I guess. Easter weekend. The first Jesuit Pope. I had a Jesuit education back when most of the teachers at the school were actually Jesuits in black robes. At the time, it didn't seem like much fun, but in retrospect, I got an education few people today will ever receive. The number of Jesuits has dwindled, and most of the teachers at Jesuit schools are lay teachers. There was no such thing as a study hall at my school. Every hour was filled with a class of some sort. Non-stop education. Latin was mandatory, plus one other language. Math in all four years, through Calculus II. Sciences: chemistry, physics, biology. Public speaking. Religion, English literature. History. It was non-stop work. You weren't even allowed to talk in the hall between classes. By the time I got to college, it seemed like everything they were teaching I already knew. Or a lot of it.

Did I ever say that? Of course not. But the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 really did establish the US dollar as the world reserve currency by establishing the dollar as central currency, pegged to gold at specific price, freely convertible between nations, and so on. The treaty really did mean something and really was signed by Britain and finally ratified by Britain in 1945 after an agreement was reached with the US concerning post war aid for their economy. Was the Pound Sterling still widely used at the time? Of course. You've quoted the numbers. And from 1944 forward, its use diminished until it eventually slipped into oblivion. What percentage of the world's reserves are today held as pounds? 4%? 5%?? The slow erosion was to be expected. Long term financing contracts were in place around the world and would continue for some time, and because of various political factors, not every country moved away from the pound at the same time. So it happened slowly. Anyway, if it makes you happy to pretend the Bretton Woods treaty didn't really establish what it established, I guess that's your prerogative. Just don't pretend that because the aggregate foreign reserves were still held in pounds in 1944 means anything other than that.

If you step back and look at the bigger picture, you can't argue the fact that the stock market is up hugely over the past decade or so. Much of that was because of money flowing into the US markets from abroad, and from all the money the Fed poured into the banking system during that same period, some of which made its way into the stock and bond markets. As a result, stock are massively overvalued and will at some point revert to a more normal level consistent with all the usual factors: Interest rates, investments from abroad, geopolitical considerations, and so on. A correction would be entirely normal and should be expected. And so far, that's what we've seen. A correction. Can things deteriorate from here? Absolutely, but even if stocks were cut in half, they would still be up massively over the last decade or so. It's all normal market behavior and can hardly be blamed entirely on Trump. Unless some of you think current valuations are justified? Maybe they are, considering there Fed put and the massive inflation and corresponding interest rate cuts we'll be seeing soon. These levels may someday seem cheap. Of course, some day a Big Mac may cost $299.95 s the dollar is destroyed.

DHL is a private company and can do whatever it wants. My guess is that this is more of a political temper tantrum than anything else. They're based in Germany, right? What about FedEx? UPS? The postal service? Unless all modes of shipment to the USA are cancelled, what's the bug deal? And most people don't have orders that big, in any event.

I don't think anyone will argue with the fact that, over the years, tax cuts have contributed to the current debt problem. After all, Reagan made no secret of what he wanted to do when he initially took office. He got some questionable advice, perhaps, but the initial intention was to "starve the beast." Lower taxes so much that congress would have no choice but to cut spending. You can ask David Stockman all about that. After a short period, Reagan saw that his plan wasn't working as advertised, and he reversed course, but the tax cuts were politically popular and, over the years, multiple presidents have campaigned on a promise to cut taxes. The voters love it. To his credit, George H.W. Bush finally agreed to raise taxes in a compromise budget deal, despite campaigning on a "no new taxes" platform. And for agreeing to tax increases, he was politically punished and lost his reelection bid, in part, because of the tax increases. In any event, the point you seem to forget is that, over the years, the Fed has enabled all this nonsense. The government spends much more money than it takes in, much of that money flows into Walls Street and the banking system, even more money is created by way of the banking system, and it's the top 1% of the people who ultimately profit. And this is possible for one reason and one reason only: the US Federal Reserve and their penchant for bailing out Wall Street and the banks every time there's trouble. Those people can't lose. When they win, they keep all the money. When they lose, the Fed rides to the rescue, bails them out, and the rest of America pays the price with higher inflation, particularly the middle class. Take away the Fed and their games and none of this would have been possible.

Too much bickering here about who did what and when. Anyone around back in 1987 must surely remember when Greenspan bailed out Wall Street following the crash. Over time, the "Greenspan Put" became a foregone conclusion and is now the "Fed Put." After the 1987 bailout, next came a bailout of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 after a bunch of supposed bond market "geniuses" couldn't even manage a bond portfolio without failing to account for multiple extraneous forces. That's a long story. Fast forward to the worry about the year 2000 computer meltdown and, again, the Fed flooded the world with money, just in case. All that money printing and then the dot.com crash/. Once again, the Fed lowered rates. Fast forward to the Great financial crisis of 2008. Another massive Fed bailout. Anyone notice a pattern here? The Fed Put. Whether the Fed admits if or not, they often have no choice. Rescue the markets or you have a credit freeze, and nobody wants that. So, since at least 1987, The Feds loose money combined with negative nominal interest rates have taken their toll. Today? Once again, the bond market is on life support and many of the traditional Fed backstops have been weakened. Bank reserves are probably near zero. The reverse repo facility is about gone. And, while the Fed has been reducing their balance sheet, it's still much higher than the 800 billion that was on it in 2000. How high can they go before they really screw things up? So, what's next? Another Fed Put, no doubt, whether Jerome Powell likes it or not. Perhaps there's an alternative? A massive depression with millions out of work. A collapse of many banks under the weight of non-performing real estate loans, especially commercial loans. Political chaos in the USA. It's a mess. Staglation like the late 70s, but with no easy fix.

One day I was wondering how far AI has advanced and whether it has advanced to the point where you could somehow turn yourself into cartoon character to narrate whatever crazy kinds of videos you want to make. So real shots out and about, overlayed with a cartoon character. Maybe it's possible, maybe it's not. I see some people mow make videos using a visual person entirely, and that seems to work for them, but I'm thinking of something that mixes fantasy and reality. For all I know, that's entirely possible, altho I haven't seen anything like that in a Youtube video. In the movie world, there was "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" years ago.

I'm a bit behind on my movie watching, and I own movies I haven't even watched yet. Dune II, some of the more recent Yellowstone spinoffs, Westworld, and more. A while back, I watched the Mosquito Coast series. I'm also watching Severance, Slow Horses, and a few others.

I think I've seen reports on here somewhere about a service that some company has. Something maybe you can purchase on EBay? Anyway, they have a way to facilitate the acquiring of a US phone number that will work of Google Voice. I forget the particulars.

I'm not thinking, I guess. As for the guy in El Salvador? He's never coming home. The president of El Salvador has said as much. They won't release him. So, despite a US court order, he's probably there to stay, and I can't see Trump sending in the 82nd Airborne to break him out.

I think you have to originally open it up in the USA with a phone assigned to a USA carrier. Once you do that, you're good to go.

I pay for a bundle of services, one of which is Apple TV+. It's called Apple One, and it's a package deal that includes Apple Music, Apple TV+. Games, and 20GB of iCloud storage. I'm lazy and have better things to do than to fool around trying to find free movies. It was easy enough to sign up and I thought the cost was reasonable. No big deal.

Can you post me to a settlement agreement on the AP case? From what I see, the case is ongoing and the potential for further litigation remains. I don't see a "settlement" anywhere. As for the guy in prison in Guatemala? The people holding hime there are acting in a way that suggests they have no intention of releasing him. He faces charges outside the USA and that case is ongoing. Keep in mind, Trump cannot simply step in and order his release. In short, I think you're twisting the facts a bit.