The Cipher

I read the linked article, and it sure sounds like it. Like the author, I don't think a more sustainable transition is likely either. I'll take the L on Axie here, I hadn't looked into it in depth and was probably wrong to bring it up. However this is, and will continue to be, what I continue to primarily keep an eye on. Broad macro news has tended to be positive over time. Mastercard is moving to broad crypto integration, for instance. It continues to make no sense to me to be at zero crypto exposure. The view I'm taking here is my own personal view as an investor. Let's assume three scenarios: Downside: In this extreme downside case, let's assume all crypto goes to zero at some uncertain time in the future. Do I believe that I will still benefit from exposure to this asset class in fiat terms before it heads down to nil value? Well, yes. I'm confident in my ability to realize some amount of profit before the eventual slide to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense to invest here, is if you believe that <your crypto's> all-time high watermark is behind us, and that your current buy-in price won't be meaningfully exceeded ever again. Boring: Nothing happens. Volatility becomes zero and market caps don't move from here to forever. In some ways this is worse than the eventual path to zero because you're guaranteed to make no money. Opportunity cost becomes a factor here, but zero exposure still makes no sense, since the future is unknowable at the time of investment it still makes sense to put some chips in. Upside: Successful crypto integration into broad finance and the real economy. Crypto's promise as a disruptor fulfilled. Don't need to explain this one. Rewards for early adoption likely to be significant and meaningfully in excess of TradFi returns over the same period. Questions I ask myself are, does it seem that we are moving in this direction in general and over time? However, the above framework only makes sense for people who are longer-horizon, relatively unconcerned with day to day volatility, and are plugged in enough to keep on top of the rapidly changing environment. Some familiarity with tech helps also. Long way of saying that basically it's not a great choice for many retirees. I've gotta keep repeating that these posts aren't enticements to invest and that I don't think crypto makes sense for much of this site's audience.

I never said that restrictions don't work. I absolutely do believe they work. I just think that broad lockdown level restrictions in particular are (i) unnecessary and (ii) actually not in the best long term interest of societies, because I'm starting with very different premises, and evaluating at a very different scale than many of you are.

This comment is going to go over everyone's head, but sure. I'll write it. Are you implying that I'll die? That's fine. I've got no fear of death. Very few of us get to choose the time and cause of our passing. Could be tomorrow, could be in 70 years (well, for me anyway heh), could be before I've hit send on this comment. Death is, in general, a certain but random exogenous event. You can take steps to alter the probabilities, but no methodology, at least as far as I'm aware, eliminates the event. That's the nature of the game we play. Part of what makes life so interesting and challenging, is the need to balance the tradeoffs that necessarily come along with death's uncertain timing. I can't keep writing because I've realized that this post would get absurdly long and philosophical (it actually did, and I cut it back to this point lol). Quick summary of what I would've written at length: Basically I chose to get vaccinated because it made sense to me to do so. But I don't feel the need to tell others what to do or not do, although I do recommend vaccination. But I don't believe that their lives (or my own) are particularly sacred or valuable in general - so really don't care what happens to any given individual, and I also respect individual agency enough not to feel the need to attempt to coerce or restrain others. Because of my view on the nature of life (subtly key to my entire worldview), the data strongly suggest that continued restrictions at this point are wildly disproportionate to the Covid threat.

Lol. 10/10. You know what it is tho, it's that throughout the pandemic, I never felt the need to tell a single person what to do. You want to go out? Ok. Want to stay at home? Cool. Want to travel? Go for it. Want to get vaccinated? No problem. Want to not get vaccinated? Sure. I don't feel that others owe me anything, and think they should be free to live their lives. I'll happily handle my own business. But a ton of people seem to have a desperate need to tell me what to do, and it's genuinely the most annoying thing.

I promised myself not to rile you guys up anymore, but just permit me this one. As the word inevitably opens back up, the fearful basically have to either self-exclude, or engage in routine day to day interactions while in abject terror. I don't wish ill on anyone in particular, but gotta say, the schadenfreude is pretty sweet.

It's a sign that you enjoy the lively and interesting community discussion here. Congrats on making it to 12,000 ????.

I work in institutional finance. Very worried about inflation. Most of my compatriots seem to be as well, and I feel quite sure that the consensus view on the Street generally differs from central bank and government messaging. It's highly likely that more money printing coming in the future, and you can already see the government desperately scrambling to fund their spending plans. Yellen's recent proposition of an unrealized gains tax is an example.

Unfortunately I don't have time to write a detailed response today. However, would argue that none of this dampens my bullishness on transition to web 3.0. Eth sidechains aren't not Ethereum and development of 3.0 applications is ongoing and growing. Never was going to be a lightswitch, I'd more look at it like - is the snowball growing as it rolls downhill? Unrelated to the above, I'm not sure how I feel about regulatory policy. Some days it's extremely frustrating for me, because it's obviously a speed bump to talent in essentially an attempt to slow things down for the less-capable (see: 19, Covid) to the net detriment of society. But other times it does seem that additional regulation would have broad benefits, for example regulations to ensure that the playing field remains somewhat more level (see: megacorp antitrust) in a way that would be to the net benefit of society.

Pandemic will fully end when people lose their fear of the virus. This is slowly happening, and more and more people are coming to terms with what Covid is, and what it isn't. More practically, restrictions the world over are gradually being eased. That is an excellent development. As life returns to normal, vaccine saturation occurs, and societies don't collapse from Covid (never even remotely a real risk), confidence will return and the reopening will accelerate even more. So yes. In every way that really matters, the pandemic will end.

I'd be open to contributing time to an initiative like this on a volunteer basis. Can teach personal finance, or really any kind of finance, although I suspect basic stuff like 'what is a budget and why should you use one' would be the most popular and immediately helpful.

I'm fully vaccinated. Can't speak for anyone else, but I could not care less about the vaccination status of anyone around me. Won't impact my decisions or comfort level at all.

Some context: Global Covid Deaths: 5,000,000 (poster quoted) Global Population: 2019 Snapshot: 7,700,000,000 (source) Global Population Current: 7,901,600,0001 Covid Deaths As % Population: 0.06% (based on poster quote) 2020-Present Monetary Stimulus In USD Terms: $15,000,000,000,000+ (Yes, that is what fifteen trillion dollars looks like written out) [source] Population Increase In 2021 YTD: 65,600,0002 Total Population Change % 2019-Present: +2.62% Total Population Change # 2019-Present: + 201,600,000 (Yes, in the midst of this terrifying pandemic, global population could have grown by more than two-hundred-million people. Source for 1 and 2here. You can hate the messenger, but numbers are what they are. No further comments at this time.

It isn't something you would've had to worry about so much in the past (unless you were in the market for assets) as much as you might have to in the future. But we just printed 40% of the money supply to save <1% of the population (seems proportionate lul). We're already seeing multi-decade high inflation and resource scarcity in many economies worldwide, and they're not even fully open yet. When velocity picks up, if supply chains haven't worked themselves out, we could quickly see a sustained inflationary spiral even higher. Thailand participates in a global market for many of these resources (for example semiconductors and copper). It's inevitable that higher cost of inputs on world markets will eventually affect Thailand to some extent. Adding to that, there is a major climate transition that needs to be funded. And we've barely started on all the funding that transition will entail (it's gonna be massive). And maybe we'll find some way to finance that transition besides more money printing, and maybe current inflation will be transitory, but...????

I see that you're catching some heat for this, but you're probably right. There are some strong reasons to believe that inflation will really erode purchasing power in the coming years. This will affect Thailand, as well as many of our home countries. There's no certainty on how much inflation we'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if some people on fixed non-inflation-linked pensions found themselves unexpectedly squeezed.

Gotta admit, it's a little amusing to see Brits lambasting Thais for complaining about the price of gas. Especially this year. I don't think too many people will understand this comment, but if you know, you know. ????

You are correct. I'm double vaccinated and generally encourage everyone to get vaccinated as well, but this hysteria has dragged on for waaaay too long with no defined end conditions. It is completely reasonable at thispoint to be skeptical of continued pandemic prevention measures given what we know about the disease, as well as the amount of progress that we have made against it - to say nothing of the amount of the foreseeable further progress on the horizon. At this point there's an exceedingly strong case to be made for the immediate and complete normalization of all aspects of life even as the vaccine rollout continues apace.

I mean, I guess the third time could be the charm. And if it isn't then maybe the fourth one will be? Or the fifth one, or the sixth one, or the seventh one....

This dude is hella butthurt and made this thread to cope, but it's not going as expected. ????

Darn, if money is the primary goal of the average person, they are really pretty bad at it. Don't know why I see this being debated. It's true. Gf and I are both 30yr old professionals who spend 50%+ of our time outside Thailand, and the association with prostitution is frequently annoying. It's not like, unbearable, but would I rather see the association broken? Yes. Zero chance that Thailand's elite in general feel differently about this than us. To clarify: I don't care if the industry exists or judge patrons. Transactions between consenting adults? Go for it. I'd just rather it not be associated with Thailand in the popular global consciousness. Also lol at this. I'd bet anyone who believes that this is true 10 Gs that we see a new high in airline annual passenger numbers within the next decade.

Yes, correct. Deep structural reform on both of these issues is needed. Hope to see these issues highlighted more in the popular discourse.

I'm not a beer guy and am probably gonna get flamed for this, but man, Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc is <deleted> great. Probably the only beer I'd ever drink alone. Never seen it in Thailand tho, unfortunately ????.

Oh whoops. I did Lasek (the one where they don't cut a flap) but I think it's based on a similar principle. Got it done at 23 or 24 so it's been about 6-7yrs at this point. Haven't noticed deterioration yet and hopefully won't see too much in the future. Still think it's the best money I've spent. Definitely recommend that everyone speak with a specialist before doing any kind of surgery tho.

Did Lasek when I lived in Seoul. Can confirm - best money I ever spent.

Don't know about that. My parents tried their very best to raise me and I turned out nothing like they expected. This lady might well be a bad parent, but there's not enough info in the article to say that for sure.

It does genuinely make me sad to see that Canada has never been mentioned in any of these deliberations. I can't help but feel like that says a lot about how the country's international status has deteriorated in the past decade, likely for reasons that will remain unmentioned.