tgw

Scenario #1 must not happen, it threatens global security. And scenario #2 is not similar to Iraq. It just leaves a beaten Russia where most people are unhappy with their leaders, so it would probably mean a regime change in Russia, but one initiated by its own people. Nobody is going to invade Ruzzia. And I don't think it would be a disaster for Ruzzia. As for Ukraine, what could be more disastrous than what it already has to endure ? Russians need to lose the war and be pushed out of Ukrainian territory, and that's where it will end, because at that moment, Ukraine will get security guarantees.

the tanks are a good thing of course, but Ukrainians must remember that tanks are relatively fragile and exposed to ATGM. They need to make sure the Leopards with be used correctly. Also, I'm slightly worried about Ruzzians having been trained to kill MBTs, and equipped to kill MBTs as per Warsaw Pact tactics. In theory, killing MBTs, especially Western MBT, is something Ruzzian troops have been equipped and trained for. Let's not repeat the Turkish's poor tactics against ISIS that lost them at least 8 Leopard 2A4 tanks.

your scenarios are very biaised 1/ Russia wins in Ukraine - yes, but: China feels encouraged to attack Taiwan, North Korea feels that it can attack the south, etc. So it's more wars coming and more potentially nuclear confrontations. 2/ Russia loses and becomes chaos - maybe there will be a bit of chaos - or not too much. and anyway, just in Ruzzia. That's the best variant, as it would also free Belarus and Georgia and possibly some other territories that were widely autonomous with their own polls and duma, presidents, own currency and own tax systems before Putin coerced them into joining the Russian Federation without holding referendums. 3/ nuclear war ensues. I think it's still highly unlikely, as everything that Putin holds dear would disappear.

nope. experienced fighter jet pilots can convert to another plane in just about 6 weeks. training has started already.

You mean "Americans that are active members of the US military or US intelligence". Because AFAIK, some American volunteers fighting for Ukraine have already been killed by Russia.

Putin's grip on power, yes, but also grip on the table. https://www.indy100.com/politics/putin-gripping-table-health-video

wow no finger pointing ! what happened to this country ?

RIP Geroyam slava!

One thing you maybe aren't considering is that among the people you see as Russian there probably are other nationalities. I guess there must be a number of Ukrainians too.

M&Ms : *facepalm* right wing : ***double facepalm*** P.S. is there a word to describe right wing loonies that are Trumpists, Qanon, militia types, etc. ? because I consider myself to be a bit right wing myself, it's a bit embarrassing to be thrown into the same pot as these.

and it's the A6 version not the old A4 version ... ?

At the same time, the West is clearly pushing its chess pieces: EU on government reshuffle: ‘We welcome Ukrainian authorities taking corruption allegations seriously’ https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-on-government-reshuffle-we-welcome-ukrainian-authorities-taking-corruption-allegations-seriously it's pretty clear that in exchange for military and economic aid, Zelensky is replacing some government figures with "our guys".

In my previous post, I pulled the number 100 out of my @ss but look what just turned up in the news: ABC News: 12 countries ready to give about 100 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine once Germany approves https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/abc-news-12-countries-ready-to-give-about-100-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine-once-germany-approves

it's not impossible. the US could ship some export models to Ukraine and setup a maintenance and repair facility in Poland, or, since Poland bought 116 M1A1 tanks that are currently being delived, it could also give these to Ukraine, and progressively replace them with the 250 brand new Abrams M1A2 SEP Poland has bought from the US after transferring 200 T-72 to Ukraine. Delivery planned to be completed in 2025. Poland is Europe's tank hub. I think Poland doesn't plan holding on to the 116 second hand Abrams that the US used in the gulf wars 30 years ago. But they might come in handy for Ukraine. 116 Abrams + 100 Leopards might be just what Ukraine needs for an offensive after destroying the expected Ruzzian push in the coming Spring. Fun fact: Poland also has 48 aging F-16 C/D. And that's also exactly the number of KAI T-50 "Golden Eagle" they have on order from South Korea. the T-50 is a modernized derivative of the F-16, while Poland's current F-16 C/D version dates back to 1998. Time to renew the airforce's equipment too, and instead of scrapping, many carbon emissions can be saved by donating F-16 to Ukraine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAI_T-50_Golden_Eagle F-16 in the air, Leopards and Abrams on the ground, with Marders and Bradleys. I guess the main problem is how to proceed with the transfers without shocking the Ruzzians too much. Let's pretend Germany opposes the plan. This post should send some of the readers here into panic mode.

the word "racism" has had its meaning shifted. its official meaning today encompasses any hate and discrimination against a demographic group of people, based on religion, race, gender, sexual orientation, etc. I researched the matter because I'm not a fan of improper word use. To designate racism based on race, today one has no choice but to say "racial racism", which makes the person saying it appear dumb.

finally some good news: https://kyivindependent.com/national/german-minister-berlin-wont-oppose-delivery-of-polish-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine German minister: Berlin won't oppose delivery of Polish Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

in the linked article, some clauses of this bill are described, for example "The legislation also requires operators to seek a license"

you are very correct and I do hope that the economic restructuring doesn't stop there. our side has to ensure intra-bloc autonomy for a number of things, such as critical industries and technologies, energy, food production, etc. security, immigration, counter-terrorism, counter-intelligence and intelligence services also need to be beefed up massively, especially with the perspective of a showdown with China. production capacities for tanks, armored vehicles and especially ammunition are too weak. in 1995, the USA had only approx. 400.000 155mm shells in storage (which is ridiculously low) against a requirement of 800.000, which is also quite low. to put things in perspective, if the US were involved in a full scale war, they would probably fire between 50.000 and 100.000 shells per day, and I think we should have more in reserve than we need for 3 months of conflict AND have a good plan of how production can be rapidly ramped up, including securing the necessary strategic resources and extraction capacities to make the shells. this problem is present in all branches of military. a number of weapon use doctrines need also to be re-thought, so that our side are able to mobilize enough conventional forces against adversaries using large scale conventional forces and troop mass effects. cheap weapons are needed, so the 4-million a piece patriot missiles don't get used on 25.000 USD Iranian drones. cheap, very highly effective weapons are needed. and, maybe, alliances such as NATO should be able to overrule the export restrictions of one of its members.

which should not be a problem in a proper bank computer system with trading restrictions/authorizations applied to accounts and clients/persons.

I think there should be a law against terminating accounts in good standing of nationals just because they reside abroad. the due diligence involved - and that's the reason why banks want to close these accounts - is or should be normal business for any bank. they choose to be lazy and cut on costs.

I'd rather they keep threatening. But they know that Scholz is afraid and they play that chord.

Media: Hungary wants EU to lift sanctions from oligarchs close to Putin https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-hungary-wants-eu-to-lift-sanctions-from-oligarchs-close-to-putin Hungary's leadership must be so corrupt.

not high-ranking after all ????

I'll just throw the headline in here: Russian defense ministry confirms plan to expand army to 1.5 million troops https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-defense-ministry-confirms-plan-to-expand-army-to-1-5-million-troops

let's hope it's true