Thai rice exports fell by 17.5% in January 2026 compared with the same month last year, as a strong baht reduced the country’s price competitiveness. Export volume totalled 530,287 tonnes, down from 643,144 tonnes a year earlier. Export value dropped to THB9.707 billion, a 30.7% decrease.
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Pol Lt Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the appreciation of the Thai baht to around 31 THB per US dollar was the main cause. For every 1 THB the baht strengthens, Thai rice becomes US$12–15 more expensive per tonne. Compared with the same period in 2025, the stronger currency has pushed prices up by US$40 per tonne.
The association has set a 2026 export target of 7.03 million tonnes, an 11% reduction, with projected revenue of THB130 billion. This marks the lowest target in five years since 2021. The situation will be reviewed in the second half of the year to assess whether adjustments are necessary.
Global supply has also increased, intensifying price competition. India has reached a record production level of 152 million tonnes per year, surpassing China’s previous record of 145–146 million tonnes, strengthening its influence over global benchmark prices. Vietnam and Pakistan have also reported strong harvests, contributing to supply exceeding demand.
The association said a competitive exchange rate would be around 33–34 THB per US dollar. At the current level of approximately 31 THB, Thailand is considered uncompetitive against rivals. It called on the government to manage exchange rate stability to support exporters.
Other factors affecting exports include volatility of the baht, high global supply in both exporting and importing countries, US tax measures. and food security policies in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines aimed at reducing imports. The possible return of El Niño, bringing drought and dry spells, may also affect production.
The Nation reported that according to USDA (The US Department of Agriculture) forecasts, global rice production for the 2025/26 marketing year is projected at 541.28 million tonnes, slightly down 0.07% from 541.66 million tonnes in 2024/25. Global rice trade is expected to reach 62.76 million tonnes, a 5.1% increase from 59.7 million tonnes, with major exporters and importers forecast to expand trade volumes.
Key Takeaways
• Thai rice exports in January 2026 fell 17.5% in volume and 30.7% in baht value year-on-year.
• A strong baht at around 31 THB per US dollar has raised prices by US$12–15 per tonne for every 1 THB appreciation.
• The 2026 export target of 7.03 million tonnes is the lowest in five years and will be reviewed later this year
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Adapted by ASEAN Now Nation 26 Feb 2026
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