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Poll: Yingluck case may affect Pheu Thai popularity


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Poll: Yingluck case may affect Pheu Thai popularity

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Former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s failure to show up for a court ruling on the rice-pledging case in which she is the defendant may prompt the Pheu Thai Party to look for a new leader and affect its popularity, according the result of an opinion survey by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, or Suan Dusit Poll.

 

The poll was carried out between Aug 26 – Sept 1 on 1,271 people throughout the country to compile their opinions after Ms Yingluck did not show up on Aug 25, when the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions was scheduled to deliver its ruling on the case.

 

It was believed she has fled abroad.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/poll-yingluck-case-may-affect-pheu-thai-popularity/

 

 

 
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-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2017-09-03
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46 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I am curious...

 

Does anyone believe that this is an accurate and fair poll?

 

Anyone?

 

Personally I don't believe anything that comes out of Thailand from official 'sources'. Having lived here a decade any illusion that this is the LOS has been dispelled. I have also found Thais, generally, have no respect for truth, ethics or integrity and that's not because they are 'bad people' but it's just not been taught as important. What they care about is 'face' number 1, 2 and 3 and if they have to lie that is completely acceptable.

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Personally I don't believe anything that comes out of Thailand from official 'sources'. Having lived here a decade any illusion that this is the LOS has been dispelled. I have also found Thais, generally, have no respect for truth, ethics or integrity and that's not because they are 'bad people' but it's just not been taught as important. What they care about is 'face' number 1, 2 and 3 and if they have to lie that is completely acceptable.

Exactly.....!


Sent from my BLL-L22 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

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I am curious...
 
Does anyone believe that this is an accurate and fair poll?
 
Anyone?

Don't worry, the "usual suspects" will be along as soon as they finish breakfast, to remind you that Thaksin/Yingluck weren't actually removed by the military, and to accuse you of "comprehension difficulties"...
[emoji3]
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23 minutes ago, LannaGuy said:

 

Personally I don't believe anything that comes out of Thailand from official 'sources'. Having lived here a decade any illusion that this is the LOS has been dispelled. I have also found Thais, generally, have no respect for truth, ethics or integrity and that's not because they are 'bad people' but it's just not been taught as important. What they care about is 'face' number 1, 2 and 3 and if they have to lie that is completely acceptable.

LOS was just a marketing gimmick by TAT; your other points speak to major components of thainess; which , after learning as much as one needs to know, is Very disappointing

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33 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

LOS was just a marketing gimmick by TAT; your other points speak to major components of thainess; which , after learning as much as one needs to know, is Very disappointing

Not to belabor any members points or take the thread off topic, but is there any difference between 'Thainess' as practiced by a Thai person and 'Thainess' as it is observed by a non-Thai person? Please note that this question is not about 'Thainess' either practiced or observed being practiced by a non-Thai.

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1 hour ago, JAG said:


Don't worry, the "usual suspects" will be along as soon as they finish breakfast, to remind you that Thaksin/Yingluck weren't actually removed by the military, and to accuse you of "comprehension difficulties"...
emoji3.png

These polls are as believeable as those that were sprouted during YL her reign. With the right questions you can make anything pop up. 

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Most polls are unreliable, the sample-size is too small, although they do perhaps give some indication ?

 

The best poll is of course an election, where TRT/PPP/PTP got 49.6% in 2011, how much & which way subsequent-events may have changed that is an interesting topic for debate.

 

Over the years the party has absorbed several minor-parties, this is IMO a major change from pre-2001 politics, and one which the Dems have failed to copy so far ...  they seem stuck in the old-model where the coalition was formed  post-election.

 

Whether this faction-based grouping represents a genuine change from regional power-brokers to national-politics remains to be seen, but so long as they can garner the largest single group of politicians/votes, they will be hard to challenge.

 

It will be interesting to see who is chosen next to be the public-face of PTP, especially whether or not it will be yet-another member of the family, and how much the failure of the rice-scheme (and their other lesser-policies) will hit them.  PTP had recently said that Yingluck had hardly-anything to do with running the party nowadays.

 

It may also be significant, whether Abhisit continues to front the Dems, or they can find a new leader ?

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2 hours ago, LannaGuy said:

 

Personally I don't believe anything that comes out of Thailand from official 'sources'. Having lived here a decade any illusion that this is the LOS has been dispelled. I have also found Thais, generally, have no respect for truth, ethics or integrity and that's not because they are 'bad people' but it's just not been taught as important. What they care about is 'face' number 1, 2 and 3 and if they have to lie that is completely acceptable.

 

There might be some truth to that. On occasion, I have even gone as far as thinking that some Thais in the tourism industry, in really jaded places like Samui and Phuket, think there might actually be "Buddhavistic" merit, in getting over on a foreigner. Who knows? But, I agree about official sources here. I do not believe any of it for a nanosecond. 

 

However, having said that, I think the party may be losing some of the little bit of momentum and popularity it once had. I think alot of supporters were very turned off by the actions of her brother, while the recent demonstrations were going on. They seemed extremely self serving, and it did appear he had no love for his nation, nor it's people, and only his self interests were of concern. The fabulously inept leadership of his sister did not help either.

 

My question is, where is the next group of leaders going to come from? Does Thailand have anything to look forward to, in this regard? The countries political future does appear to be rather bleak at the moment.

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3 hours ago, chainarong said:

Hardly a case for changing parties or allegiance..........................:coffee1:

 

I thought about commenting but then I remembered JAG's post a few minutes earlier "Don't worry, the "usual suspects" will be along as soon as they finish breakfast, to remind you that Thaksin/Yingluck ..... .

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1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

There might be some truth to that. On occasion, I have even gone as far as thinking that some Thais in the tourism industry, in really jaded places like Samui and Phuket, think there might actually be "Buddhavistic" merit, in getting over on a foreigner. Who knows? But, I agree about official sources here. I do not believe any of it for a nanosecond. 

 

However, having said that, I think the party may be losing some of the little bit of momentum and popularity it once had. I think alot of supporters were very turned off by the actions of her brother, while the recent demonstrations were going on. They seemed extremely self serving, and it did appear he had no love for his nation, nor it's people, and only his self interests were of concern. The fabulously inept leadership of his sister did not help either.

 

My question is, where is the next group of leaders going to come from? Does Thailand have anything to look forward to, in this regard? The countries political future does appear to be rather bleak at the moment.

 

You make some good points regarding the loss of momentum of the PTP/Reds. However, I disagree a bit as a matter of emphasis; the behaviour of the Shins has not helped, but I think it is more a case of they have been in the public eye too long. It is extremely difficult for any party or movement to remain 'fresh' for more than ten years unless there is an efficient system to nurture and promote young talent, something the PTP has not done. In short, it is hard to see where the Shins end and the party begins.

 

Where is the next group of leaders going to come from? Great question. The current first and second tier of the leadership has been embroiled in legal mires (some earned, some not so much) as, in my opinion, a deliberate strategy to "lop off the head of the snake'. And I don't think they currently have the power or means to resist the attack.

 

I am coming around to the idea that it might be good to adopt a "rope-a-dope" strategy for the next few years.  The issues that brought them to prominence aren't going away (lack of serious participation in national affairs, lack of economic opportunity, disrespect, etc.) and will, I think, be exacerbated. The current leadership in Bangkok does not seem to understand the reasons for the discontentment or, if they do, do not seem to take them seriously.

 

Perhaps the best thing to do is either sit out the next election (if it ever comes) or, as a matter of policy, explain that they will not even try to form a government. Given the current political situation, they wouldn't be able to do anything, and if they tried, it would certainly violate the "20 year strategy" or run afoul of the 'independent' agencies. 

 

Perhaps it is better to wait and rebuild their networks across the North and North East and wait for the current regime to self-destruct?

 

Thoughts anyone?

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1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

You make some good points regarding the loss of momentum of the PTP/Reds. However, I disagree a bit as a matter of emphasis; the behaviour of the Shins has not helped, but I think it is more a case of they have been in the public eye too long. It is extremely difficult for any party or movement to remain 'fresh' for more than ten years unless there is an efficient system to nurture and promote young talent, something the PTP has not done. In short, it is hard to see where the Shins end and the party begins.

 

Where is the next group of leaders going to come from? Great question. The current first and second tier of the leadership has been embroiled in legal mires (some earned, some not so much) as, in my opinion, a deliberate strategy to "lop off the head of the snake'. And I don't think they currently have the power or means to resist the attack.

 

I am coming around to the idea that it might be good to adopt a "rope-a-dope" strategy for the next few years.  The issues that brought them to prominence aren't going away (lack of serious participation in national affairs, lack of economic opportunity, disrespect, etc.) and will, I think, be exacerbated. The current leadership in Bangkok does not seem to understand the reasons for the discontentment or, if they do, do not seem to take them seriously.

 

Perhaps the best thing to do is either sit out the next election (if it ever comes) or, as a matter of policy, explain that they will not even try to form a government. Given the current political situation, they wouldn't be able to do anything, and if they tried, it would certainly violate the "20 year strategy" or run afoul of the 'independent' agencies. 

 

Perhaps it is better to wait and rebuild their networks across the North and North East and wait for the current regime to self-destruct?

 

Thoughts anyone?

Thought provoking.

 

If they do not enter the lists in the next election, will they perhaps fall foul of the principal that if a party does not compete in an election it disbars itself from the next one?

I know that clause was not enforced in the case of the Democratic Party (well surprise surprise), and I don't know if the same rule exists in the new constitution. If it does it will surely be gleefully enforced, if it doesn't it will probably be retrospectively introduced.

 

If they do take part, win a majority of elected seats and form a government you can as you suggest expect them to be overruled constantly be the "independent agencies", Suthep and his goons will probably hit the streets again, there will be manufactured "chaos" and thy will be removed at some stage, to be replaced by a junta.

 

Taking part, but not attempting to form a government? Well that may be a better way. Their presence in the lower house, especially if they have a majority of seats, will be a permanent reminder, domestically and internationally of the gerrymandered nature of the new system. The case for doing so will need to be well-made, and constantly re-presented to the public.  There may well be a reluctance to form a government, even if it is theoretically possible given the "casualty rate" - jailed and missing of those who did last time round! Their presence in the elected house may serve as a Siamese  equivalent of the slave who rode in the Roman Emperors chariot on grand occasions, whispering "remember you too are mortal" in the imperial ear....

 

When the current regime, or it's gerrymandered successor self destructs, they will be better placed to succeed.

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5 hours ago, JAG said:


Don't worry, the "usual suspects" will be along as soon as they finish breakfast, to remind you that Thaksin/Yingluck weren't actually removed by the military, and to accuse you of "comprehension difficulties"...
emoji3.png

 

If you can't change facts to something more convenient, then try and make fun of the messengers, as a last desperate diversion! :stoner:

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4 hours ago, robblok said:

These polls are as believeable as those that were sprouted during YL her reign. With the right questions you can make anything pop up. 

No. Polls published under authoritarian regime are more likely to be biased.

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1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

You make some good points regarding the loss of momentum of the PTP/Reds. However, I disagree a bit as a matter of emphasis; the behaviour of the Shins has not helped, but I think it is more a case of they have been in the public eye too long. It is extremely difficult for any party or movement to remain 'fresh' for more than ten years unless there is an efficient system to nurture and promote young talent, something the PTP has not done. In short, it is hard to see where the Shins end and the party begins.

 

Where is the next group of leaders going to come from? Great question. The current first and second tier of the leadership has been embroiled in legal mires (some earned, some not so much) as, in my opinion, a deliberate strategy to "lop off the head of the snake'. And I don't think they currently have the power or means to resist the attack.

 

I am coming around to the idea that it might be good to adopt a "rope-a-dope" strategy for the next few years.  The issues that brought them to prominence aren't going away (lack of serious participation in national affairs, lack of economic opportunity, disrespect, etc.) and will, I think, be exacerbated. The current leadership in Bangkok does not seem to understand the reasons for the discontentment or, if they do, do not seem to take them seriously.

 

Perhaps the best thing to do is either sit out the next election (if it ever comes) or, as a matter of policy, explain that they will not even try to form a government. Given the current political situation, they wouldn't be able to do anything, and if they tried, it would certainly violate the "20 year strategy" or run afoul of the 'independent' agencies. 

 

Perhaps it is better to wait and rebuild their networks across the North and North East and wait for the current regime to self-destruct?

 

Thoughts anyone?

 

Interesting thoughts.

 

We speculate with our Western constructs, cultures and often things that seem motivational or logical to us are not to Thais and indeed other Asians. The Thai ego and importance attached to "face" doesn't suggest anyone would be happy waiting in the wings; or controlling things behind the scenes. It will be interesting to see what they do but I'm guessing Thaksin will prefer a family member, be that blood relative or in-law, as the nominated head. Let's not forget it's his party, he pays MP's a salary, and he still makes the calls. If anyone doesn't like that, or wants to go in a different direction then they'll have to go and form their own party. PTP isn't a democratically controlled public organization, it's a private organization. In the same way as the Democrats (there's a misnomer!) aren't either. That needs to change. But those owning and controlling the "political parties" aren't gonna let that change easily.

As for PTP, I believe their networks are still there. But maybe creaking with some breaks. All these networks rely on slush money flowing as their life blood. Maybe the flows not so strong and maybe some blockages. And, as we seen in many scenarios, everything here revolves around the money!

 

Hopefully, some new politicians will emerge. Ones who have fallen under the old patronage systems and have been dragged into the corruption. Where they will come from, and when, is a good question though. As nothing much has changed to precipitate that so far.

 

Thaksin will have his plans, which are aimed at his benefit. The elites will have their plans to thwart him, and keep the status quo that favors them. But who will have plans and policies to drive the country forward in a way that benefits the whole nation? Not seen any party offering that so far!

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24 minutes ago, JAG said:

Thought provoking.

 

If they do not enter the lists in the next election, will they perhaps fall foul of the principal that if a party does not compete in an election it disbars itself from the next one?

I know that clause was not enforced in the case of the Democratic Party (well surprise surprise), and I don't know if the same rule exists in the new constitution. If it does it will surely be gleefully enforced, if it doesn't it will probably be retrospectively introduced.

 

If they do take part, win a majority of elected seats and form a government you can as you suggest expect them to be overruled constantly be the "independent agencies", Suthep and his goons will probably hit the streets again, there will be manufactured "chaos" and thy will be removed at some stage, to be replaced by a junta.

 

Taking part, but not attempting to form a government? Well that may be a better way. Their presence in the lower house, especially if they have a majority of seats, will be a permanent reminder, domestically and internationally of the gerrymandered nature of the new system. The case for doing so will need to be well-made, and constantly re-presented to the public.  There may well be a reluctance to form a government, even if it is theoretically possible given the "casualty rate" - jailed and missing of those who did last time round! Their presence in the elected house may serve as a Siamese  equivalent of the slave who rode in the Roman Emperors chariot on grand occasions, whispering "remember you too are mortal" in the imperial ear....

 

When the current regime, or it's gerrymandered successor self destructs, they will be better placed to succeed.

Good post.

 

As a matter of curiosity, is there actually a provision to ban a party or candidate who boycotts an election from running in the next (anyone?)? I agree that, for some unknown reason, it might not apply to the Dems, but I am curious if such a thing exists.

 

While it is theoretically possible that they will win a majority in the next parliament, given the new set up I think it is very unlikely. It has been essentially designed to make sure that does not occur. And yes, given the current state of affairs in Thai politics, I agree that they would be forced out of office, somehow.

 

My ideas aren't exactly rocket science; I am suggesting that they adopt an element from Parliamentary systems elsewhere and become the "Loyal Opposition". From a purely political point of view, they can't accomplish much at the moment, better to become the "Critic-in Chief" and gain their political points that way. Further, with the voice, but without the responsibility of governing, they can remain in the public eye. At the same time, they will be able to build and re-build their base and perhaps expand it a bit. Finally, they could use this time to develop new ideas and policies for the time when they are in power again (sooner or later, it will happen). And that would be a good and popular thing; it would be healthy to move away from identity politics and\or regional politics to a more national platform.

 

Given what we have seen over the last three years, especially on the economic front, I believe that the current regime will wear out its welcome sooner rather than later. It may be able to hang on a while through coercion, but that will not allow for popularity.

 

Time spent in preparation is rarely wasted.

 

 

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Some thoughtful posts

When the decision to pull Yingluck out became the case, the thinking may be, not only risk management, but a considered period of stepping back and letting 'things unfold' under the current government, carrying total responsibility.

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27 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Interesting thoughts.

 

We speculate with our Western constructs, cultures and often things that seem motivational or logical to us are not to Thais and indeed other Asians. The Thai ego and importance attached to "face" doesn't suggest anyone would be happy waiting in the wings; or controlling things behind the scenes. It will be interesting to see what they do but I'm guessing Thaksin will prefer a family member, be that blood relative or in-law, as the nominated head. Let's not forget it's his party, he pays MP's a salary, and he still makes the calls. If anyone doesn't like that, or wants to go in a different direction then they'll have to go and form their own party. PTP isn't a democratically controlled public organization, it's a private organization. In the same way as the Democrats (there's a misnomer!) aren't either. That needs to change. But those owning and controlling the "political parties" aren't gonna let that change easily.

As for PTP, I believe their networks are still there. But maybe creaking with some breaks. All these networks rely on slush money flowing as their life blood. Maybe the flows not so strong and maybe some blockages. And, as we seen in many scenarios, everything here revolves around the money!

 

Hopefully, some new politicians will emerge. Ones who have fallen under the old patronage systems and have been dragged into the corruption. Where they will come from, and when, is a good question though. As nothing much has changed to precipitate that so far.

 

Thaksin will have his plans, which are aimed at his benefit. The elites will have their plans to thwart him, and keep the status quo that favors them. But who will have plans and policies to drive the country forward in a way that benefits the whole nation? Not seen any party offering that so far!

 

I have to disagree with the idea that being in opposition is a 'Western' construct. Yes, it has its roots in the West, but it has been prevalent in Asia for a while now; Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, etc. It doesn't work the same way in Asia, but that is to be expected. And while the concept of "Face" might be a bit stronger here in Thailand, it does exist elsewhere and they have managed to adapt. There is no reason to believe that it cannot happen here.

 

Forgive me, but in my view your argument goes downhill after that. The picture that you paint of the PTP/Red side as being purely a construct of Thaksin for his own benefit doesn't really fly. I forget the exact numbers, but in the last election, the PTP got roughly 15 million votes. Yes, the money provided by the Shins and the other families does help a great deal in getting elected, but I think you are missing the forest for the trees.

 

It is logical for the people in the North and North East to vote for a party that they think represents them, and it seems clear to me that they do not believe any of the other parties do so. And, the idea that all those votes were "bought" is nonsense; If I were a Thai and lived in Issan, I sure as hell wouldn't be voting for anyone else. The 'secret' of Thaksin and the Reds' success is that they listened to the people in the North and North East; it is that simple. You mention "Face" in your post; for a very long time people in Bangkok have not been giving 'face' to the voters, rather they have been disparaging them as "Red Buffaloes". Why would they vote for people who do that? 

 

If any other party wants to be competitive up north, they are going to have to treat the people there with respect. And, I don't see that happening. Thus, they will continue to support the Reds/PTP/whatever the next version is.

 

Best to get prepared for when the will govern again.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

I have to disagree with the idea that being in opposition is a 'Western' construct. Yes, it has its roots in the West, but it has been prevalent in Asia for a while now; Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, etc. It doesn't work the same way in Asia, but that is to be expected. And while the concept of "Face" might be a bit stronger here in Thailand, it does exist elsewhere and they have managed to adapt. There is no reason to believe that it cannot happen here.

 

Forgive me, but in my view your argument goes downhill after that. The picture that you paint of the PTP/Red side as being purely a construct of Thaksin for his own benefit doesn't really fly. I forget the exact numbers, but in the last election, the PTP got roughly 15 million votes. Yes, the money provided by the Shins and the other families does help a great deal in getting elected, but I think you are missing the forest for the trees.

 

It is logical for the people in the North and North East to vote for a party that they think represents them, and it seems clear to me that they do not believe any of the other parties do so. And, the idea that all those votes were "bought" is nonsense; If I were a Thai and lived in Issan, I sure as hell wouldn't be voting for anyone else. The 'secret' of Thaksin and the Reds' success is that they listened to the people in the North and North East; it is that simple. You mention "Face" in your post; for a very long time people in Bangkok have not been giving 'face' to the voters, rather they have been disparaging them as "Red Buffaloes". Why would they vote for people who do that? 

 

If any other party wants to be competitive up north, they are going to have to treat the people there with respect. And, I don't see that happening. Thus, they will continue to support the Reds/PTP/whatever the next version is.

 

Best to get prepared for when the will govern again.

 

 

 

You seem to miss the point, deliberately or by accident, I don't know. I never mentioned "vote buying", you introduced that. What I mentioned was that the Shiniwattra family, via it's Patriarch, actually paid a monthly salary, in addition to the parliamentary salary to PTP MP's. The degree to which this family controls PTP, and I'd suggest the same previously with TRT, can be demonstrated by the Thaksin reshuffling PTP's cabinet several times, even when Yingluck was denying another shuffle was on the cards. Thaksin making one shuffle so he could bring back several of his TRT mates into cabinet once their 5 year corruption bans had expired; and by the constant offshore meetings with Thaksin attended by existing and aspiring PTP ministers, police and others.

 

Whilst it could be said that Western political parties are financed by institutions, businesses, unions, media moguls and others, and have to represent their views, the situation here, especially with PTP is much narrower. Add to that the fact that the UDD seems similarly owned and one family's dominance in those two organizations seems somewhat total. So it's unlikely any changes would or could be made without their sanction. PTP, just as TRT was, are a political vehicle for the Shiniwattra family, and their friends.

 

Political parties, such as they are here, do rely on the feudal and patronage elements within Thai culture, which are still very strong especially in provincial and rural areas which explains the geographic power bases of politicians and their family run parties. All parties also have strong support networks in their areas to help enforce loyalty. Changes to this may be happening in Bangkok and adjoining areas but will take some time to filter outwards. 

 

Perhaps you believe the Amnesty Bill wasn't just for one's person's benefit but was a genuine attempt at reconciliation? 

 

People in the third world, Asia, Africa, South America, vote for who they think might look after them, but modified by patronage, tribal, ethnic, peer pressure, feudal, traditional, or religious pressures. That mix may vary from region to region, country to country. But those factors help corrupt politicians to get re-elected. It's almost "better a devil you know than don't know" symptom coupled with a nurtured unquestioning loyalty.

 

In just the same way that Suthep and the Dems do down South, the Shins do up North. 

 

Family run political parties, aren't anything knew in the West. If you are interested check and see how many of the current British parliament come from old political families and have ancestors who were active in politics before them (not just the Lords). Names are sometimes changed, and not just through marriage! But you might be surprises as many were / are Labor politicians. But that family, class domination was  British thing, that's slowly working itself out.

 

Politicians in the West now, in the main, have to rely on a good manifesto, which is challenged prior to an election, and used to judge their results. Here, and in other third world countries, no. Still very much about the local important family, peer pressure, who you traditionally vote for and who you never would. In such scenarios, manipulations are much easier.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, pornprong said:

The Junta fears elections for the same reason it always has.....PTP will romp home again and again and again.

 

So says a another new poster, joined last Friday - welcome! 53 posts to-date, all on political discussions and all supporting Yingluck and PTP!

 

Always nice to see a new unbiased poster who doesn't have an agenda! :sleep:

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7 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

So says a another new poster, joined last Friday - welcome! 53 posts to-date, all on political discussions and all supporting Yingluck and PTP!

 

Always nice to see a new unbiased poster who doesn't have an agenda! :sleep:

Are you aware of the results of every Thai election held this century?

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