webfact Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Thailand's record current-account surplus adds muscle to baht Currency shrugs off prospects for tighter US money as exporters fret HIROSHI KOTANI, Nikkei staff writer BANGKOK -- The baht is at its highest point against the dollar in about two and half years, as Thailand's policymakers and exporters worry that the strong currency could hurt industry. The baht, unlike other Asian currencies, also appears immune to speculation that tighter U.S. monetary policy will weaken it. Thailand's large current-account surplus, which is running in excess of $40 billion annually, is contributing to the currency's might. The baht has been rising steadily against the dollar and now trades at around 33 to the greenback, up about 7% from the beginning of the year, outperforming the New Taiwan dollar and Singapore dollar, both of which have risen by more than 6%. Full story: https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Currencies/Thailand-s-record-current-account-surplus-adds-muscle-to-baht -- NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW 2017-10-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrules Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 They seem pleased at this, considering Thailand is a producer and exporter of goods this is far from good news for every sector of industry in Thailand. This article talks about it like it's time to celebrate. If this keeps up exports will be decimated within a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAZZPA Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 hour ago, ukrules said: They seem pleased at this, considering Thailand is a producer and exporter of goods this is far from good news for every sector of industry in Thailand. This article talks about it like it's time to celebrate. If this keeps up exports will be decimated within a few years. I agree. I also heard somewhere that the Thai Government had empty coffers, not a surplus, hence the sharp tax rises in alcohol and cigarettes (Cigarettes have increased by around 80% in the past couple of years, 15% ish in the last few weeks). Anway, whatever the scenario if it is not controlled soon your prediction I believe is entirely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yimlitnoy Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 3 hours ago, ukrules said: They seem pleased at this, considering Thailand is a producer and exporter of goods this is far from good news for every sector of industry in Thailand. This article talks about it like it's time to celebrate. If this keeps up exports will be decimated within a few years. It's been working for Germany for a long long time. Of course they've got the devalued Euro to fuel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfd101 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 hours ago, GAZZPA said: also heard somewhere that the Thai Government had empty coffers, not a surplus, hence the sharp tax rises in alcohol and cigarettes (Cigarettes have increased by around 80% in the past couple of years, 15% ish in the last few weeks). The Government's budget deficit and the trade surplus & current account balance are entirely different and unrelated matters. The budget deficit comes from extravagant spending by the government combined with antiquated (and no doubt corrupt) tax collection. The trade and current account surpluses come from real-world exchanges between Thailand and all other countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curmudgeon1 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 hour ago, mfd101 said: The Government's budget deficit and the trade surplus & current account balance are entirely different and unrelated matters. The budget deficit comes from extravagant spending by the government combined with antiquated (and no doubt corrupt) tax collection. The trade and current account surpluses come from real-world exchanges between Thailand and all other countries. Agreed... the author of this article must of had a point hi liting an interim surplus but has little you do with b$ strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricardo Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 1 hour ago, mfd101 said: The Government's budget deficit and the trade surplus & current account balance are entirely different and unrelated matters. The budget deficit comes from extravagant spending by the government combined with antiquated (and no doubt corrupt) tax collection. The trade and current account surpluses come from real-world exchanges between Thailand and all other countries. Exactly ! The country is trading strongly which explains the strong Baht, also perhaps held up slightly by local interest-rates (?) but successive governments have been running a budget-deficit for the past decade or more, spending more than they take-in in tax. Every year they threaten to raise VAT, and every year this increase is deferred, once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 5 hours ago, webfact said: The baht, unlike other Asian currencies, also appears immune to speculation that tighter U.S. monetary policy will weaken it. Sub immune for ignorant. It is not going to end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ricardo said: The country is trading strongly which explains the strong Baht, also perhaps held up slightly by local interest-rates (? The strong Baht is due to the low oil price. Thailand is a big oil importer importing 80% of its oil consumption. Trade has been drag for last 3 years and only improve this year as world demands improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srikcir Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 30 minutes ago, Eric Loh said: The strong Baht is due to the low oil price. One of Thailand's main exports are petroleum-based products made from crude oil imports. Low oil prices also means low cost of product production and higher net revenues. Higher oil prices will have a double impact on GDP growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconut007 Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Strong baht makes sense... stable democratic government, no corruption, excellent security for foreign investors, skilled labor, etc And with stronger baht it also makes sense how imported groceries and other stuff is becoming more expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grumpy Duck Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Coconut007 said: Strong baht makes sense... stable democratic government, no corruption, excellent security for foreign investors, skilled labor, etc And with stronger baht it also makes sense how imported groceries and other stuff is becoming more expensive. Must be joking, a military junta that overthrew a democratically elected government is not considered democratic at all. But yes I also have noticed higher prices for groceries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 4 hours ago, Srikcir said: One of Thailand's main exports are petroleum-based products made from crude oil imports. Low oil prices also means low cost of product production and higher net revenues. Higher oil prices will have a double impact on GDP growth. Sweet spot Thailand is in. Low oil price help to achieve current account surplus and better trading and profits for the refineries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 9:07 AM, yimlitnoy said: In the years leading up to the Nikkei 225 collapse in December 29th 1989, the Yen was also getting stronger. Similar or just a coincident, I am not sure? The Yuan has also gained in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kieran00001 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 16/10/2017 at 9:10 AM, lannarebirth said: It's been working for Germany for a long long time. Of course they've got the devalued Euro to fuel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said: What are we looking at here? Average daily rainfall in Nakhonnowhere in inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said: You don't think the Euro trades lower than where the Deutsch Mark would if they had retained that currency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said: What are we looking at here? Average daily rainfall in Nakhonnowhere in inches? I think he's trying to show that contrary to my post the Euro is not devalued as it is up 17% in a year. I was speaking of Germany specifically and I think the Euro is trading well below where the DM would be trading if it had remained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kieran00001 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Just now, ExpatOilWorker said: What are we looking at here? Average daily rainfall in Nakhonnowhere in inches? It was in reply to... "Of course they've got the devalued Euro to fuel it." Do the maths. And Nakhon nowhere? Nakhon Ratchasima is the second largest city in Thailand, repeating that tired nonsense can only make you sound ignorant, perhaps that was the plan of the person who started it, to see who would blindly repeat it, which would only be those who had been nowhere in this county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kieran00001 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, lannarebirth said: You don't think the Euro trades lower than where the Deutsch Mark would if they had retained that currency? You can still trade marks in and even many shops accept them today, there are over 13 billion still in circulation, they are trading at 1.96 marks to the Euro, but is a little different anyway. You shouldn't worry yourself about such speculations, Germany has chosen to be a charitable nation with an agenda to ending European wealth disparity, there is no reason to assume that they would not have done something similar without the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSiamHand Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/16/2017 at 11:30 AM, Curmudgeon1 said: Agreed... the author of this article must of had a point hi liting an interim surplus but has little you do with b$ strength. interim surplus? the current account has been in surplus for a long time now, and has a lot to do with the strength of the baht. this board really hits new lows whenever basic economics becomes a topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overherebc Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said: It was in reply to... "Of course they've got the devalued Euro to fuel it." Do the maths. And Nakhon nowhere? Nakhon Ratchasima is the second largest city in Thailand, repeating that tired nonsense can only make you sound ignorant, perhaps that was the plan of the person who started it, to see who would blindly repeat it, which would only be those who had been nowhere in this county. You can blame a guy called Roger Crutchley. He had a 'weekly comedy bit' in a well known newspaper and always wrote about his maid as Miss Yasothin from Nakon-nowhere. It doesn't refer to anywhere in particular, just the north-east in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said: You can still trade marks in and even many shops accept them today, there are over 13 billion still in circulation, they are trading at 1.96 marks to the Euro, but is a little different anyway. You shouldn't worry yourself about such speculations, Germany has chosen to be a charitable nation with an agenda to ending European wealth disparity, there is no reason to assume that they would not have done something similar without the Euro. You may be the only person who believes that. Most think, and I agree, the Euro was adopted to keep their currency weak enough and to create a common currency with European trading partners whose curriencies fluctuated tremendously. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kieran00001 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Just now, overherebc said: You can blame a guy called Roger Crutchley. He had a 'weekly comedy bit' in a well known newspaper and always wrote about his maid as Miss Yasothin from Nakon-nowhere. It doesn't refer to anywhere in particular, just the north-east in general. Thanks, I didn't know where it originated, but how do you know it refers to the North East and not to Nakhon Si Thamarat, Nakhon Sri Ayuthaya, Nakhon Sawan or any of the other Nakhons not in the North East? Seeing as Nakhon means capital it seems a little ridiculous to use it with nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyFriend You Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 18 hours ago, Grumpy Duck said: Must be joking, a military junta that overthrew a democratically elected government is not considered democratic at all. But yes I also have noticed higher prices for groceries " takes a hint like a hunk of wood" comes to mind here, I am sure he was being sarcastic, thats why so many are laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kieran00001 Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, lannarebirth said: You may be the only person who believes that. Most think, and I agree, the Euro was adopted to keep their currency weak enough and to create a common currency with European trading partners whose curriencies fluctuated tremendously. . Seeing as I mentioned no reason for the adoption of the currency I find your argument a little one sided, keep at it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theguyfromanotherforum Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Oh look....pages and pages of whine coming up. I don't understand one thing, though. Since everyone has given up on their "nanny state" the logical thing to do would have been to exchange all your currencies to baht. Why the hesitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said: Thanks, I didn't know where it originated, but how do you know it refers to the North East and not to Nakhon Si Thamarat, Nakhon Sri Ayuthaya, Nakhon Sawan or any of the other Nakhons not in the North East? Seeing as Nakhon means capital it seems a little ridiculous to use it with nowhere. I would have thought a guy with a handle that translate to "running stool" would have a bit more humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overherebc Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said: Thanks, I didn't know where it originated, but how do you know it refers to the North East and not to Nakhon Si Thamarat, Nakhon Sri Ayuthaya, Nakhon Sawan or any of the other Nakhons not in the North East? Seeing as Nakhon means capital it seems a little ridiculous to use it with nowhere. Probably many times in the beginning was 'up in Nakon Nowhere', I've also heard Udon-Nakon Nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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