Brexit never? Britain can still change its mind, says Article 50 author

[Khun Han]

4 hours ago, Stupooey said:

Where do I start? Detailed analysis of voting patterns is in the public domain, much of it done by universities (Loughborough, Kent and the LSE spring to mind). Whilst not naive enough to take treat any single source as gospel, when the same results are repeated it becomes a matter of using common sense to join up the dots. Pollster post mortems to explain why a 48-52 'poll of polls' prediction became 52-48 on the day generally centre on turnout. The mobilisation of the so-called "dormant" voters I mentioned (I have seen a figure of 3 million quoted, although this appears rather high) is one example. Flooding in generally pro-remain London, which caused a relatively low turnout there is another. The polling date - just after the end of the university term, meaning many students who had registered at their term-time address found themselves unable to vote - is a third. I was not trying to make any particular point - after all, many people do not bother to vote in general elections because the result in their constituency is a foregone conclusion - but was just trying to find some explanation as to why the polls got it so wrong.

 

So provide some evidence then. You're just wittering at the moment.

[Stupooey]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

So provide some evidence then. You're just wittering at the moment.

 

I've given you 3 sources - how many more do you want? - but you could always try googling something like 'Brexit results analysis' if you want more, although most reach the same conclusions. Perhaps you should provide evidence that I am wittering, which I believe means talking rubbish.

[nauseus]

28 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

 

I've given you 3 sources - how many more do you want? - but you could always try googling something like 'Brexit results analysis' if you want more, although most reach the same conclusions. Perhaps you should provide evidence that I am wittering, which I believe means talking rubbish.

He doesn't need evidence, he has plenty of witnesses!

[Khun Han]

54 minutes ago, Stupooey said:

 

I've given you 3 sources - how many more do you want? - but you could always try googling something like 'Brexit results analysis' if you want more, although most reach the same conclusions. Perhaps you should provide evidence that I am wittering, which I believe means talking rubbish.

 

You haven't given me any sources. You've named three universities. If you want to substantiate your claims about dormant voters and your other rather subjective analyses of voting patterns, you need to provide links to surveys which have detailed breakdowns of their samples. Otherwise, you should make clear it's just your opinion.

[Grouse]

37 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

You haven't given me any sources. You've named three universities. If you want to substantiate your claims about dormant voters and your other rather subjective analyses of voting patterns, you need to provide links to surveys which have detailed breakdowns of their samples. Otherwise, you should make clear it's just your opinion.

You're sounding increasingly worried Han. You should be, there won't be a happy ending

[Stupooey]

12 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You haven't given me any sources. You've named three universities. If you want to substantiate your claims about dormant voters and your other rather subjective analyses of voting patterns, you need to provide links to surveys which have detailed breakdowns of their samples. Otherwise, you should make clear it's just your opinion.

Sorry, I didn't realise we weren't allowed to air opinions. I'd better shut up then.

[Retiredandhappyhere]

  On 11/10/2017 at 8:54 PM, Grouse said:

Because you don't REALLY think things through. Does it not give you pause that ALL the bright people are anti Brexit? But we have a majority of low level munchkins who are going to get shafted yet won't see it coming!

 

 

Yet another example of Grouse exercising his normal condescending, arrogant and insulting manner, whereby anyone who does not agree with his "remain" point of view is a "low level munchkin".   In hundreds of post on the Brexit subject, he has displayed the "I am a genius and you are an idiot" manner often associated with  certain former students of Eton and it would come as no surprise to many were we to learn that he is in fact one of them.  A hint of modesty and humility in his posts would not only make him appear a slightly less disagreeable individual but would also make his posts more believable and less extremely biased.

[simoh1490]

Democracy - we voted for brexit so that's what we have to have, you have to give it to us because the people have spoken!

 

But is it not also democracy when the guilty man appeals, based on new evidence and is suddenly found to be innocent and as a result is spared a death sentence? Because surely, if there was a second vote today, based on what we all now know about Brexit, the majority would vote by saying, don't be stupid, of course we're not going to leave! After all, democracy doesn't also mean being stupid, does it!

[Kenegg]

On 16/11/2017 at 12:44 AM, simoh1490 said:

Democracy - we voted for brexit so that's what we have to have, you have to give it to us because the people have spoken!

 

But is it not also democracy when the guilty man appeals, based on new evidence and is suddenly found to be innocent and as a result is spared a death sentence? Because surely, if there was a second vote today, based on what we all now know about Brexit, the majority would vote by saying, don't be stupid, of course we're not going to leave! After all, democracy doesn't also mean being stupid, does it!

 I Think you would be surprised...the Brussels Mafia have shown their true colours... their "how dare you vote against us we will make you pay for this" attitude doesn't make it a nice place to want to be....

[taipeir]

 I Think you would be surprised...the Brussels Mafia have shown their true colours... their "how dare you vote against us we will make you pay for this" attitude doesn't make it a nice place to want to be....

Lol that was the attitude of British empire for hundreds of years.India, South Africa, Kenya, Ireland, United States. learn your own history.

 

 

The EU administration have no interest to particularly help a member benefit from leaving the union, why would they?

 

More whining as Tory govt is a complete shambles and Brexit spoofers have been found out already.

 

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[taipeir]

Please post a link to the EU signed off accounts.

The EU is not a corner shop.
Its a complicated economic and political union of 28 countries.

As Brexit Britain is rapidly finding out .

What accounts are you talking about ?
The commission?
Individual countries?
Which department or ministry ?

What exactly are you on about :)

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[taipeir]

Where do I start? Detailed analysis of voting patterns is in the public domain, much of it done by universities (Loughborough, Kent and the LSE spring to mind). Whilst not naive enough to take treat any single source as gospel, when the same results are repeated it becomes a matter of using common sense to join up the dots. Pollster post mortems to explain why a 48-52 'poll of polls' prediction became 52-48 on the day generally centre on turnout. The mobilisation of the so-called "dormant" voters I mentioned (I have seen a figure of 3 million quoted, although this appears rather high) is one example. Flooding in generally pro-remain London, which caused a relatively low turnout there is another. The polling date - just after the end of the university term, meaning many students who had registered at their term-time address found themselves unable to vote - is a third. I was not trying to make any particular point - after all, many people do not bother to vote in general elections because the result in their constituency is a foregone conclusion - but was just trying to find some explanation as to why the polls got it so wrong.

Reasoned analysis.

One could say the polls didn't necessarily get it wrong they may have been a snapshot of a rapidly moving target AND the margin was so tight that the polls could have been bang on one day and at the error limit the next of just a few percent !

 

This is the problem with using referendums for the big complex decisions or with only a tiny majority for a simple yes no vote which doesn't capture the nuances .

 

 

 

 

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[chrissables]

28 minutes ago, taipeir said:

The EU is not a corner shop.
Its a complicated economic and political union of 28 countries.

As Brexit Britain is rapidly finding out .

What accounts are you talking about ?
The commission?
Individual countries?
Which department or ministry ?

What exactly are you on about :)

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

As you know, i was replying to another quote.

 

The size and difficulty for them (EU) is not my concern. 

 

The fact is no international accountancy firm will sign off the EU accounts, due to errors.

 

If the errors are corruption or just basic stupidness i don't know.

 

But as the EU are demanding money for the cost of ongoing commitments from the UK, their accounts should be in order. If for no other reason, to enable them to quantify the amounts.

 

 

[taipeir]

As you know, i was replying to another quote.
 
The size and difficulty for them (EU) is not my concern. 
 
The fact is no international accountancy firm will sign off the EU accounts, due to errors.
 
If the errors are corruption or just basic stupidness i don't know.
 
But as the EU are demanding money for the cost of ongoing commitments from the UK, their accounts should be in order. If for no other reason, to enable them to quantify the amounts.
 
 

Still trying to figure out what are these mysterious accounts that have a problem?

Could you enlighten us with your insight ?

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[chrissables]

3 minutes ago, taipeir said:

Still trying to figure out what are these mysterious accounts that have a problem?

Could you enlighten us with your insight ?

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

What's the mystery.

 

Send me a link to independent audited accounts. The EU must have them, not the self audited accounts.

 

The issue, not necessarily a problem is they demanding money from the UK, to do so we (UK) have a right to see audited accounts quantifying the amounts demanded.

 

  

[Grouse]

This is all completely off topic

 

The point is that this Brexit foolishness can easily be halted.

 

Only extreme Brexiteers are still in favour. Certainly a case of the tail wagging the dog (the head knows the better option is to remain)

 

Let's check the current position with an online or postal referendum? What's to lose? It would cost peanuts.

Edited November 17, 2017 by Grouse
Missing apostrophe

[chrissables]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

This is all completely off topic

 

The point is that this Brexit foolishness can easily be halted.

 

Only extreme Brexiteers are still in favour. Certainly a case of the tail wagging the dog (the head knows the better option is to remain)

 

Let's check the current position with an online or postal referendum? What's to lose? It would cost peanuts.

Besides it would be undemocratic to hold another vote, the issue with postal fraud is also an issue.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11560017/Postal-voting-fraud-is-easy-electoral-commissioner-says.html

[baansgr]

2 hours ago, taipeir said:

Lol that was the attitude of British empire for hundreds of years.India, South Africa, Kenya, Ireland, United States. learn your own history.

 

 

The EU administration have no interest to particularly help a member benefit from leaving the union, why would they?

 

More whining as Tory govt is a complete shambles and Brexit spoofers have been found out already.

 

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

So when all those countries gained independence, they all paid a massive 'divorce' bill, cant remember that although history isnt my major subject 

[Grouse]

29 minutes ago, chrissables said:

Besides it would be undemocratic to hold another vote, the issue with postal fraud is also an issue.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11560017/Postal-voting-fraud-is-easy-electoral-commissioner-says.html

Straws and Clutching spring to mind ?

[simoh1490]

37 minutes ago, chrissables said:

Besides it would be undemocratic to hold another vote, the issue with postal fraud is also an issue.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11560017/Postal-voting-fraud-is-easy-electoral-commissioner-says.html

There's nothing undemocratic whatsoever about holding a second vote after new information has come to light, that's called common sense!

[chrissables]

7 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Straws and Clutching spring to mind ?

More from you than i.

 

You must have a lot to lose if we leave, hence changing your citizenship. What will you do when Denmark desides to leave the EU too?

[chrissables]

1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

There's nothing undemocratic whatsoever about holding a second vote after new information has come to light, that's called common sense!

What information would that be?

[simoh1490]

Just now, chrissables said:

What information would that be?

An understanding by the general population of what Brexit entails.

[craigt3365]

Seems the Russians went after this campaign also.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/world/europe/russia-brexit-twitter-facebook.html?emc=edit_th_20171116&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=80027960&_r=0

 

Quote

 

LONDON — More than 150,000 Russian-language Twitter accounts posted tens of thousands of messages in English urging Britain to leave the European Union in the days before last year’s referendum on the issue, a team of researchers disclosed on Wednesday.

More than 400 of the accounts that Twitter has already identified to congressional investigators as tools of the Kremlin, other researchers said, also posted divisive messages about Britain’s decision on withdrawing from the bloc, or Brexit, both before and after the vote.

Most of the messages sought to inflame fears about Muslims and immigrants to help drive the vote, suggesting parallels to the strategy that Russian propagandists employed in the United States in the 2016 election to try to intensify the polarization of the electorate.

 

 

[chrissables]

29 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

An understanding by the general population of what Brexit entails.

Again, what NEW information are you referring to?

[simoh1490]

9 minutes ago, chrissables said:

Again, what NEW information are you referring to?

All of the detailed information that has come out on a daily basis since the vote, much of it is what was previously known as data contained in Project Fear, the things that are now becoming a reality, much to the surprise of many. For example, that the Pound would fall in value significantly, that the UK economy would shrink further for longer, that Brexit wouldn't mean an extra £350 million per week for the NHS, that immigration into the UK would not fall substantially,  that hard Brexit may be a reality with all that entails, etc etc. Whilst elements of the UK voting population MAY have understood the realities of the above, much of it did not.

 

EDIT TO ADD: links below plus the addition of "baked in views about the EU".

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-leave-eu-immigration-main-reason-european-union-survey-a7811651.html

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_vote_in_favour_of_Brexit

 

https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21721358-book-makes-rare-attempt-use-survey-data-find-some-answers-explaining

Edited November 17, 2017 by simoh1490

[baansgr]

7 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

All of the detailed information that has come out on a daily basis since the vote, much of it is what was previously known as data contained in Project Fear, the things that are now becoming a reality, much to the surprise of many. For example, that the Pound would fall in value significantly, that the UK economy would shrink further for longer, that Brexit wouldn't mean an extra £350 million per week for the NHS, that immigration into the UK would not fall substantially,  that hard Brexit may be a reality with all that entails, etc etc. Whilst elements of the UK voting population MAY have understood the realities of the above, much of it did not.

 

EDIT TO ADD: links below plus the addition of "baked in views about the EU".

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-leave-eu-immigration-main-reason-european-union-survey-a7811651.html

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_vote_in_favour_of_Brexit

 

https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21721358-book-makes-rare-attempt-use-survey-data-find-some-answers-explaining

That old bus chestnut again...... It never said 350mil to NHS, but thats the problem with lefty graduates with an useless ology degree of some sort cant comphrehend basic English 

[baansgr]

Read carefully 

[mfd101]

Keynes: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"

[simoh1490]

9 minutes ago, baansgr said:

That old bus chestnut again...... It never said 350mil to NHS, but thats the problem with lefty graduates with an useless ology degree of some sort cant comphrehend basic English 

Let's be clear on a number of points here.

 

At 68 years of age I don't have an ology degree of some sort and my English comprehension is just fine. What is also just fine is that I'm not about to engage yet again in yet another of the same debates on Brexit, with posters who want us to produce evidence for this and that, and then claiming they don't like the source or that it's biased etc etc. Neither am I willing to engage such debates with posters who veer towards the abusive, right out of the gate so that puts you at a real disadvantage here!