How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power

[rooster59]

How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power

By SOMROUTHAI SABSOMBOON 
THE SUNDAY NATION

 

 

THERE ARE several likely scenarios under which General Prayut Chan-o-cha may come back as prime minister following the next general election, which is expected to be held late this year.

 

The country’s political outlook has become clearer after the New Year celebrations as Prayut, who led the 2014 military coup, said he is now a “politician”, signalling his interest in returning to power after the next polls.

 

Under the current charter, drafted by veteran lawmaker Meechai Ruchupan and other experts, Prayut would have to be nominated and endorsed by Parliament to be prime minister again.

 

To do so, he would have to contest the general election as an MP candidate and leader of a political party. Afterwards, if he were elected and had support from the majority of MPs in Parliament, he could be the next elected premier. This is the best and most prestigious way to return to power in a democratic path.

 

However, that scenario is now not possible because the charter states that members of National Legislative Assembly, Cabinet or National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), of which Prayut is the leader, have to resign from their posts within 90 days after the new charter becomes effective.

 

Since the charter has been effective for over nine months, it is too late for Prayut to apply and stand in the next polls as an MP candidate.

 

Another scenario is to be the next premier as leader of a political party under Article 88 of the charter, which states each political party is required to name a maximum of three persons as their candidates for prime minister prior to the election.

 

Under this scenario, Prayut could be nominated by a single party contesting in the next polls. One of the pluses of this scenario is that he would be praised for transparency and that could be a rallying point for the party to win votes.

 

However, as soon as Prayut revealed his political party affiliation, he would be attacked by other parties and that would diminish his probability of winning at the polls.

 

In this scenario, he would also have the support of about 250 senators handpicked by the NCPO who have the right to vote for the next premier in Parliament under a provisional clause of the charter.

 

As a result, Prayut needs the support of only 126 MPs to win the premiership in Parliament, as he could count on the support of the 250 senators to get the required majority. The biggest weakness in this scenario is that Prayut would be heading a minority government which may be short-lived due to the lack of majority support in the House of Representatives.

 

In this scenario, Prayut would also face criticisms of partiality since he would remain the caretaker premier and leader of NCPO while organising the national polls.

 

In addition, the party chosen by Prayut may not win the most votes, so it would be difficult for him to get a nomination and endorsement in Parliament.

 

Another possible scenario is to return to power as a PM candidate outside of the political parties’ list. The charter states that political parties may resort to naming an outsider to be prime minister if they could not win enough support for candidates on their list announced before the election takes place.

 

Under this scenario, Prayut could be seen as “impartial” in the upcoming polls, since he would not be affiliated to any party but he would be nominated by the parties that have the majority of votes.

 

However, Prayut would need more support in Parliament than any in other scenario, since at least 500 members of both lower and upper houses have to vote for him. In other words, he needs at least 250 MPs and 250 senators to return to power.

 

This means at least one of the major parties must support Prayut as their choice of prime minister. The Democrat party has been touted as a potential major party to back him. However, it remains unclear whether such a plan would work or Prayut would have to resort to winning enough parliamentary support to form a national coalition government with no opposition party. 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30335584

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-07

[Get Real]

This is really much easier explained. Why does news always have to make it so hard.

If there is only 1 witness in a trial, and the witness mysteriously disappear. What is the result? The accused win, right? That if there is no hard forensic evidence stacked up against him.

In this case. All the competition has been eliminated since a long time. They have also had their rights taken away so that they have been unable to do their work. They are still banned from political activities regarding most important things. The new constitution also have a clause that a non elected outsider can be appointed as PM. For everything else we use Section 44.

Result: When there is no competition or anybody at all the can or are allowed to work against you. Yeah, right! They you are bound to win!

[baboon]

It will be straightforward enough for him to ensure he gets the gig as civilian Prime Minister, but then what? How will he cope without Article 44? How will a man who does not know the meaning of the word 'debate' fare in an open(ish) parliament? How will this thin skinned individual handle the jeers and catcalls from the media, public and fellow politicians without the recourse to make threats? 

 

In a way I hope he does carry on. The resulting trainwreck of his kakistocracy once he discovers he is well out of his depth will be fun to watch...

[ballpoint]

Surely a democratic political party wouldn't place someone at number one on their party list at the orders of another?  If that were to happen, and the party won the election, that person would be totally out of their depth, and would try to avoid actually attending parliament whenever possible, and throw a fit or break into tears whenever challenged, while all the time pursuing the agenda of whoever put them in that position.  What a warped sense of democracy that party would have.

[Samui Bodoh]

I think that for Prayut to stay in power there would need to be some kind of endorsement by both the 'Reds' and 'Yellows' that there was a fair process. It follows the old playground games logic of "your guy said it was okay/wrong". If Prayut's opponents say that it was a fair contest, he will have legitimacy and all will be fine for him.

 

However, regardless of the outcome of any rules, laws, shenanigans and/or convulsions in getting to power, if the 'Reds' and 'Yellows' don't give him legitimacy, then it is likely 1992 again.

 

I don't see the 'Reds' and/or 'Yellows' giving legitimacy to Prayut under the current system.

 

It is a matter of time before people are back in the streets. And if they are unable to do so/not allowed to do so, then the pressure will build and build and build and build. 

 

Interesting times...

[YetAnother]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Another possible scenario is to return to power as a PM candidate outside of the political parties’ list. The charter states that political parties may resort to naming an outsider to be prime minister if they could not win enough support for candidates on their list announced before the election takes place.

 

Under this scenario, Prayut could be seen as “impartial” in the upcoming polls, since he would not be affiliated to any party but he would be nominated by the parties that have the majority of votes.

a lot of people sensed this was a major goal of the current military constitution;

couple troubling points:

1) can anyone see PT nominating this guy or even throwing much support his way ?

2) what happens if this path is taken But not enough support to close that deal ?

[Ossy]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power

To do so, he would have to contest the general election as an MP candidate and leader of a political party. Afterwards, if he were elected and had support from the majority of MPs in Parliament, he could be the next elected premier. This is the best and most prestigious way to return to power in a democratic path.

Oops, guess who was too busy sorting through his wardrobe and jewellery box to read the small print of the Junta's own new legislation.

However, that scenario is now not possible because the charter states that members of National Legislative Assembly, Cabinet or National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), of which Prayut is the leader, have to resign from their posts within 90 days after the new charter becomes effective. Since the charter has been effective for over nine months, it is too late for Prayut to apply and stand in the next polls as an MP candidate.

 

And, now, the 'I'm not a soldier' Prayut would probably sell his mother in order to get people to like him enough to want him as PM. The next few weeks and months are going to be hilarious with his every utterance being to do with 'me-me-me', at the expense of giving Thainess back to the people. And the hole he digs for himself will, hopefully, get too deep for him to clamber out of . . . let's hope so, but it's largely in the hands of the Thai nation and how strong and united they can be in their kicking out the Prayut pretender.

[Dave67]

You could come back with dozens of scenarios that won't happen. Not really worth considering at the moment.

[SABloke]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

However, that scenario is now not possible because the charter states that members of National Legislative Assembly, Cabinet or National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), of which Prayut is the leader, have to resign from their posts within 90 days after the new charter becomes effective.

 

Since the charter has been effective for over nine months, it is too late for Prayut to apply and stand in the next polls as an MP candidate.

Well, I don't see why the scenario is "not possible" because 9 months is way longer than 90 days and I haven't seen any members resign. They choose which parts of the charter they follow 

[Ossy]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

In a way I hope he does carry on. The resulting trainwreck of his kakistocracy once he discovers he is well out of his depth will be fun to watch...

In a twisted, masochistic sort of way, I want to watch the train-wreck, too. To see Prayut grabbing his balls and go storming out of the playground, "I don't wanna play this silly game no more, with no good guys wanting to be on my side!" . . . a brilliant fantasy for about 60M people, at a guess.

But there's just that nagging suspicion that 'the other people' might just be sufficiently focused and resourceful and single-minded to get a government together that could make a REAL DIFFERENCE, that would be seen and felt to be doing a better job than if the 'Generals playing at being Ministers' scenario was allowed to continue. I'd hate for the electorate to dismiss this democratic dream as impossible, without even giving it a chance to come into being.

[Curmudgeon1]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

It will be straightforward enough for him to ensure he gets the gig as civilian Prime Minister, but then what? How will he cope without Article 44? How will a man who does not know the meaning of the word 'debate' fare in an open(ish) parliament? How will this thin skinned individual handle the jeers and catcalls from the media, public and fellow politicians without the recourse to make threats? 

 

In a way I hope he does carry on. The resulting trainwreck of his kakistocracy once he discovers he is well out of his depth will be fun to watch...

You've not enough entertainment with the likes of trudeau and trump?

[peperobi]

He has the power to control the next election....

[canuckamuck]

3 hours ago, YetAnother said:

a lot of people sensed this was a major goal of the current military constitution;

couple troubling points:

1) can anyone see PT nominating this guy or even throwing much support his way ?

2) what happens if this path is taken But not enough support to close that deal ?

1. Nothing surprises me here.

2. Disaster averted 

[Somtamnication]

"How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power".... I thought it was an article on male masturbation! 

[boomerangutang]

Prayut gets zero respect from me.

[candide]

6 hours ago, YetAnother said:

 

2) what happens if this path is taken But not enough support to close that deal ?

That's an interesting question. What would happen if there is no majority for an elected PM, and then not enough votes for an unelected PM?

I am curious to know what the constitution or organic laws say about it.

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

However, that scenario is now not possible because the charter states that members of National Legislative Assembly, Cabinet or National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), of which Prayut is the leader, have to resign from their posts within 90 days after the new charter becomes effective.

Untrue.

Prayut simply invokes Article 44 to allow him to resign no later that 90 days prior to the election date. He will meanwhile remain as "caretaker" PM and Chief of NCPO.

Then Prayut requests the NLA pass the "The Good Politician Act" which parallels restrictions on freedom of expression similar to the Referendum Act such as no public debate, no live campaign broadcasts, no criticism of any competing politicians in any medium, no political rallies including nonparty members, etc.

Meanwhile Prayut will use his office to educate the public on his government's accomplishments and future plans, in accordance with the 20-year plan of course memorialized in the Charter.

[brucec64]

Untrue.
Prayut simply invokes Article 44 to allow him to resign no later that 90 days prior to the election date. He will meanwhile remain as "caretaker" PM and Chief of NCPO.
Then Prayut requests the NLA pass the "The Good Politician Act" which parallels restrictions on freedom of expression similar to the Referendum Act such as no public debate, no live campaign broadcasts, no criticism of any competing politicians in any medium, no political rallies including nonparty members, etc.
Meanwhile Prayut will use his office to educate the public on his government's accomplishments and future plans, in accordance with the 20-year plan of course memorialized in the Charter.

And you forgot will use army personnel to go door to door to "urge" citizens to make the right choice, as was done in the farcical referendum.

Sent from my SM-N950U1 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[greenchair]

Another possible scenario is Prayuth could use the fixer 44 and declare no elections in 2019. 

In this case scenario ( likely)Prayut need not worry about above scenarios. ?