‘La Nina’ weather in 2018 increases likelihood of major flooding: experts

[rooster59]

‘La Nina’ weather in 2018 increases likelihood of major flooding: experts

By PRATCH RUJIVANAROM 
THE NATION

 

File photo: Songkha's Thepha district is under water in November last year.

 

Similar weather conditions to those that occurred during the nation’s second most severe flooding in 1995 is predicted for this year, according to weather experts. They are warning that an expected “La Nina” condition will bring more rain and storms than usual to Thailand, and that increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather should be expected as a result of climate change.

 

Prominent water and climate change experts interviewed by The Nation agreed that Thailand will receive larger amount of precipitation than usual due to the influence of the La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected during this year. They also agreed that this year’s water situation was expected to resemble that of 1995.

 

The year 1995 was one of the wettest years in recent Thai history. As a result of various storms during that year’s rainy season, Bangkok and other provinces in the Central Region suffered from heavy floods for more than two months. The severity of the 1995 flood was only eclipsed by the major flood of 2011.

 

Thailand Global Warming Academy president Thanawat Jarupongsakul, who is also a lecturer in the Department of Geology at Chulalongkorn University, said that this year would be overly wet due to La Nina. The rainy season is also expected to come sooner than usual and with more precipitation, he added.

 

“This year will be a La Nina year, which means our region will receive more rain. As of now, we still expect that this year’s La Nina will be a mild one, which is good news, because if the La Nina condition is strong, we may face a severe water situation similar to 1995 or even worse, like 2011,” Thanawat said.

 

According to the official long-term prediction of the Meteorological Department’s Climate Centre, the ENSO condition will be a mild La Nina during the first three months of this year but the condition is predicted to return to a neutral stage by the end of March.

 

He also expressed concern about storms that will approach Thailand during the course of this year, which may directly hit Bangkok and cause major floods.

 

“Bangkok is not safe from a major storm and it is possible for our capital to be hit with a big storm, so we should be prepared for such a worst-case scenario,” he said. “It was widely speculated that many major floods in Bangkok in the past were the result of storms that hit the area around Bangkok.”

 

He stressed that as a result of climate change, people around the world would face more extreme and unpredictable weather, with more severe droughts and floods both expected.

 

The Utokapat Foundation’s secretary-general, Royol Chitradon, also agreed that this year’s weather condition would resemble that of 1995 and warned that this year’s rainy season would come earlier and last longer than usual.

 

“The weather condition for this year will be wetter than last year due to La Nina, but I am confident of our improved water management system and believe that the new National Water Resources Management Office will be able to handle the water crisis effectively,” Royol said.

 

“We have more water management tools and better organised water management policy, so despite [expectations that] this year’s water situation may be serious, I am sure that everything will be under control.”

 

Paiboon Nuannin, a prominent seismologist from Prince of Songkhla University, weighed in regarding large earthquakes with a magnitude larger than 7 on the Richter scale. Judging by the experience of 2017, he said, more frequent large earthquakes are being predicted during 2018.

 

“From the records of big earthquakes last year, we can see that there were only seven big earthquakes occurring, which is only half of the average of 15 big earthquakes per year,” Paiboon said.

 

“From earthquake statistics, [we know that] the year with less frequent big earthquake will normally be followed by a year with more frequent big earthquakes, so it is possible that there will be more earthquakes this year.”

 

However, he urged Thai people not to get too concerned about this possibility, as Thailand is situated in relatively safe location from the perspective of experiencing big earthquakes, which normally occur in the subduction zone.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/national/30335576

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-01-07

[Get Real]

4 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Similar weather conditions to those that occurred during the nation’s second most severe flooding in 1995 is predicted for this year, according to weather experts. They are warning that an expected “La Nina” condition will bring more rain and storms than usual to Thailand, and that increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather should be expected as a result of climate change.

And what are we going to do about that, Mr Politician?

- Nah, It´s just ain´t that simple. By the way, I have an extradiction to look forward too.

Ok, that´s good. I wish you good luck with that.
But, what about theese floodings and weather conditions, that so many says are an effect of climate change?

- Oh, that! It´s just been like this for a long time. People just can´t understand that they have to build and live in the right places. If they can´t afford it now, they just have to start saving for the future. And, I mean, what can you really do about climate change. If the climate wish to change, that must be something that is much stronger than just a person or a government. I see nothing we can do about that. Nah, off course, we have to supply enough sandbags so they have a possibility to stop the water and lead the flooding the right way.

Ok, I understand. You can do nothing about the weather and climate when it´s to late and it´s already upon the people, but what about preparing and trying to prevent it from growing stronger and happening in the future?
I mean, allt this about pollution, environmental friendly systems and trying to cut down on the use of plastic bags as an example? What about teaching people to not throw their garbage everywhere? Good garbage collection so that people will not burn things they don´t know is dangerous? What do you think about that?

 

- Hey, take it easy now! Don´t you think that I have more important things on my table?

[Ricardo]

But will it increase, or decrease, the likelihood of a major earthquake in Thailand this coming year  ...  we need a Thai professor to tell us !

[Jack Mountain]

What's the point of warning Thai people, nobody will listen and will play surprised and blame the government when it happens.

[Ulic]

Personally, I love a big downpour. 

[Orac]

“It was widely speculated that many major floods in Bangkok in the past were the result of storms that hit the area around Bangkok.”

 

With this sort of insight I can rest easy knowing the the Thai authorities have made the connection between storms and flooding.

[soalbundy]

5 hours ago, Jack Mountain said:

What's the point of warning Thai people, nobody will listen and will play surprised and blame the government when it happens.

What are they supposed to do? Weather just 'is', if you have the money you can fly away to a nicer climate, I think a lot of farmers are taking this option instead of saving money for their retirement, it will end in tears.

[toofarnorth]

2 hours ago, Orac said:

“It was widely speculated that many major floods in Bangkok in the past were the result of storms that hit the area around Bangkok.”

 

With this sort of insight I can rest easy knowing the the Thai authorities have made the connection between storms and flooding.

I think I remember during the last set of floods the PM suggested the flooding was due to the large amount of rain we were having.

[Srikcir]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Thailand is situated in relatively safe location from the perspective of experiencing big earthquakes

"Relative" is a relative word.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Mae_Lao_earthquake

Thailand is ideally situated on the Ocean to experience tsunami's created by seafloor earthquakes. 

[fusion58]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

“The weather condition for this year will be wetter than last year due to La Nina, but I am confident of our improved water management system and believe that the new National Water Resources Management Office will be able to handle the water crisis effectively,” Royol said.

 

“We have more water management tools and better organised water management policy, so despite [expectations that] this year’s water situation may be serious, I am sure that everything will be under control.”

 

 

[seajae]

lets see if they have all the necessary preparation work done this time so we dont see wholesale flooding, somehow I doubt it very much, maybe though we might see some of the big dams  filled up. Can only hope that they are more prepared this time, highly unlikely going on past experiences, wonder who will be blamed this time

 

[PAIBKK]

Thai experts... 

[DavisH]

Might explain why the council in digging the roads in my area and putting in huge diameter drainage pipes. 

[DrTuner]

Rain and cold. The junta can't get me out, Somchai's ever enduring incompetence is barely tolerable, even the invasion of Russians and Chinese is something I can bite my teeth through, but damned if they screw the weather I'm outta here!

 

The last bloody thing Thailand has going for it. Ain't cold.

[djayz]

Ok, so now they have more than enough time to prepare... ?

Oops! I forgot where I am...

[soalbundy]

20 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Rain and cold. The junta can't get me out, Somchai's ever enduring incompetence is barely tolerable, even the invasion of Russians and Chinese is something I can bite my teeth through, but damned if they screw the weather I'm outta here!

 

The last bloody thing Thailand has going for it. Ain't cold.

Cold weather and a decent tropical rain storm, brilliant, my English genes love it.

[Stargeezr]

The weather patterns are changing!  Global warming is upon us, Climate change

is going to kill us all off. Oh wait, its only another La Nina year, Guess the sky

is not falling, just old space stations and a few satellites.

Geezer