Ive decided to sell my shares on Nasdaq.

[yogavnture]

3 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

Last night I sold at 9.31am New York time (late last night thai time). Why are you being anal about this? Whats the point. 

 

Ive sold and my brokerage has issued me with a contract note. What is there not to believe about my thread. 

 

I dont have a crystal ball but I have doubled my money on these tech stocks. The wife and I have plans to set up a business this year. Life rolls on.

so u followed thru on 1.24. 2018 . at least you seem honest in your statements.  the Nasdaq closed down .61% yesterday so u picked a bad day to sell........closed at 7415,   lets see how these weeks go with these numbers . and we will see if your decision was a good one

[yogavnture]

Just now, yogavnture said:

so u followed thru on 1.24. 2018 . at least you seem honest in your statements.  the Nasdaq closed down .61% yesterday so u picked a bad day to sell........closed at 7415,   lets see how these weeks go with these numbers . and we will see if your decision was a good one

dont 50% of businesses fail

[yogavnture]

1 hour ago, kokesaat said:

I've been a mutual fund investor since the mid-80's.  I stuck with the advice of people like Peter Lynch and fastened my seat belt in 1987, 2000, 2001, 2008.  But a few weeks ago, I started to think, 'if I walked into a casino with $xxxx.......and found myself with $xxxxxxxx", would I walk out or keep betting?' 

Because I'm not a betting man, I'd walk out.  

So I sold off about 70% of my mutual fund holding, keeping another 30% split between a variety of equity funds and bond funds.

I'll consider myself a winner even if the market keeps going up.  Now, about the only thing I have to worry about is finding a mattress large enough to act as a safety deposit box.

 

since when is investing a casino? i dont go to casinos but i invest in good companies . i like paypal not bit coin. the Russians will hack bit coin

[punchjudy]

why not sell 20% of your stocks/mutuals?

[yogavnture]

look at jp morgan chase bank.. they have done well

[xylophone]

3 hours ago, hugh2121 said:

There are some great fund managers out there who beat the indices on a regular basis.

Research doesn't support this and those that do beat the market (around 15%) do not do it on a consistent basis.  

 

"For ordinary investors, Warren Buffett recommends they own an index fund.

It will do better on balance than what they will get if they go to professionals," Buffett told CNBC"  AND

 

"Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of large-cap funds lagged a simple S&P 500 index fund. The percentages of mid-cap and small-cap funds lagging their benchmarks were even higher: 95.4% and 93.2%, respectively"". 

 

"Most striking, the study shows that small cap, mid cap and large passive funds have drastically outperformed their active peers over 5, 10, and 15 year periods. The detailed report, chock full of hard data, deals a setback to active managers as a group, many of whom have argued that they do well when results are averaged out over a long period".

 

The stats we used in our Investment Advisory Division were that around 85% of active managers don't beat the market (index funds).

[DrPhibes]

Not to mention Warren Buffet's Birkshire Hathaway is sitting on over $100 Billion of cash (about a quarter of the worth of the entire company and he hates to be in cash) because he can't find a company to buy that is not way over priced.  I got out completely 6 months ago.

[yogavnture]

9 hours ago, davidst01 said:

strange comment. 

whats strange about it. he sold yesterday. the Nasdaq went down yesterday .6 percent.........so .......so far he is losing.  at this moment today its up .08 percent.  ..............so that means so far he has lost on two days out of two..........

[mpyre]

13 hours ago, kokesaat said:

I've been a mutual fund investor since the mid-80's.  I stuck with the advice of people like Peter Lynch and fastened my seat belt in 1987, 2000, 2001, 2008.  But a few weeks ago, I started to think, 'if I walked into a casino with $xxxx.......and found myself with $xxxxxxxx", would I walk out or keep betting?' 

Because I'm not a betting man, I'd walk out.  

So I sold off about 70% of my mutual fund holding, keeping another 30% split between a variety of equity funds and bond funds.

I'll consider myself a winner even if the market keeps going up.  Now, about the only thing I have to worry about is finding a mattress large enough to act as a safety deposit box.

 

The most important consideration when deciding to buy and sell, and how much, is your AGE...a 35 year old can ride out ups and downs, and even a major crash. But someone 20 or 30 years older had better think twice...the stock rollercoaster might not reach the top again in your lifetime. Prudent allocation between stocks and intermediate bonds relative to your AGE is one of the keys to investing success, and sleeping well at night.

[1FinickyOne]

48 minutes ago, mpyre said:

The most important consideration when deciding to buy and sell, and how much, is your AGE...a 35 year old can ride out ups and downs, and even a major crash. But someone 20 or 30 years older had better think twice...the stock rollercoaster might not reach the top again in your lifetime. Prudent allocation between stocks and intermediate bonds relative to your AGE is one of the keys to investing success, and sleeping well at night.

This is really sound advice - - especially the part about sleeping well at night. It is important to adjust your investments to your comfort level. I have had a good financial adviser who understands the importance of staying invested and she has reigned in my temptations to sell during every possible scare... I keep a slightly aggressive position on investments which is offset by keeping a larger cash position than needed. So. ultimately, I am conservatively invested and thankfully, have remained in the market. But being able to sleep well at night is important if not always the most lucrative path...

 

I have other friends who are out of the market, waiting for the big crash and losing out in the meantime... 

[xylophone]

4 hours ago, mpyre said:

The most important consideration when deciding to buy and sell, and how much, is your AGE...a 35 year old can ride out ups and downs, and even a major crash. But someone 20 or 30 years older had better think twice...the stock rollercoaster might not reach the top again in your lifetime. Prudent allocation between stocks and intermediate bonds relative to your AGE is one of the keys to investing success, and sleeping well at night.

You make a good point regarding age, as in general the older one gets the more conservative should be the portfolio, mainly for the reason you state, but also because usually at a certain age one's earning capacity ceases/declines and the chance of making up any lost funds becomes difficult if not impossible.

 

 

[ghworker2010]

10 hours ago, yogavnture said:

whats strange about it. he sold yesterday. the Nasdaq went down yesterday .6 percent.........so .......so far he is losing.  at this moment today its up .08 percent.  ..............so that means so far he has lost on two days out of two..........

You appear to have no idea what  your talking about. I sold at a high price and yes my shares went down. My shares are still less than what I sold them for. No Im not losing.... I can buy the quantity back today cheaper if I wanted to. Your comments highlight the fact that you are inexperienced in trading and have no idea what your talking about.

 

One of the main reasons I sold was bc of the exchange rate risk. I predict that the USD will be much stronger this yr due to the reversing of Q.Easing. This is confirmed by Trump himself today:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-says-dollar-to-get-stronger-and-stronger.html

 

I really think there will be high volatility and a correction this yr in the markets. 

 

I recommend that you be careful writing about things that you have no idea about. This advice is for free. 

 

 

[The Theory]

"The best advice someone ever gave me 25 years ago was "trade what you see is happening and not what you think will happen". 

???

 

what you see is what they want you to see. Smart guys make their own move. 

 

[advancebooking]

19 hours ago, yogavnture said:

so u followed thru on 1.24. 2018 . at least you seem honest in your statements.  the Nasdaq closed down .61% yesterday so u picked a bad day to sell........closed at 7415,   lets see how these weeks go with these numbers . and we will see if your decision was a good one

Its a fairly daft comment to make based on what OP has done. He has taken profits- he's out of the market. What does he care what happens in a few weeks time.

 

Its possible that the Fed will likely not succeed in its Q.E unwinding program. This  is because the markets might have to put up with a big correction before the Fed relents and reverses the program and goes back to printing money again pumping up liquidity. If rates start to rise and the shrinking of the balance sheets proceed then stock prices and property prices will go down but the Fed will change course and push them back up. There will be a lot of volatility and thus opportunties this yr...

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

You appear to have no idea what  your talking about. I sold at a high price and yes my shares went down. My shares are still less than what I sold them for. No Im not losing.... I can buy the quantity back today cheaper if I wanted to. Your comments highlight the fact that you are inexperienced in trading and have no idea what your talking about.

 

One of the main reasons I sold was bc of the exchange rate risk. I predict that the USD will be much stronger this yr due to the reversing of Q.Easing. This is confirmed by Trump himself today:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-says-dollar-to-get-stronger-and-stronger.html

 

I really think there will be high volatility and a correction this yr in the markets. 

 

I recommend that you be careful writing about things that you have no idea about. This advice is for free. 

 

 

I hope your prediction comes true but I'm not convinced it will, a good piece in Bloomberg today on this entitled the Doomsday Guide to the Dollar. The article ends with the idea that America wants a strong Dollar but is also secretly very happy that it's declining slowly because that's good for US exports. As for Trump's comments, I would ignore anything and everything the man says. 

Edited January 26, 2018 by simoh1490

[yogavnture]

2 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

You appear to have no idea what  your talking about. I sold at a high price and yes my shares went down. My shares are still less than what I sold them for. No Im not losing.... I can buy the quantity back today cheaper if I wanted to. Your comments highlight the fact that you are inexperienced in trading and have no idea what your talking about.

 

One of the main reasons I sold was bc of the exchange rate risk. I predict that the USD will be much stronger this yr due to the reversing of Q.Easing. This is confirmed by Trump himself today:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-says-dollar-to-get-stronger-and-stronger.html

 

I really think there will be high volatility and a correction this yr in the markets. 

 

I recommend that you be careful writing about things that you have no idea about. This advice is for free. 

 

 

your advise is free.?  what about the tax u just paid on your sale?  i dont know what im talking about?  my success rate is much more than yours so i guess that tells who knows what they are speaking about. its investors like you that help the rest of us else out.  thanks!

[yogavnture]

19 hours ago, yogavnture said:

since when is investing a casino? i dont go to casinos but i invest in good companies . i like paypal not bit coin. the Russians will hack bit coin

u are putting your money under a mattress?  

 

[yogavnture]

3 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

You appear to have no idea what  your talking about. I sold at a high price and yes my shares went down. My shares are still less than what I sold them for. No Im not losing.... I can buy the quantity back today cheaper if I wanted to. Your comments highlight the fact that you are inexperienced in trading and have no idea what your talking about.

 

One of the main reasons I sold was bc of the exchange rate risk. I predict that the USD will be much stronger this yr due to the reversing of Q.Easing. This is confirmed by Trump himself today:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-says-dollar-to-get-stronger-and-stronger.html

 

I really think there will be high volatility and a correction this yr in the markets. 

 

I recommend that you be careful writing about things that you have no idea about. This advice is for free. 

 

 

what about when your thai live in steals the money under your mattress. or you go on vacation and she has sold your business and runoff

 

[yogavnture]

3 hours ago, ghworker2010 said:

You appear to have no idea what  your talking about. I sold at a high price and yes my shares went down. My shares are still less than what I sold them for. No Im not losing.... I can buy the quantity back today cheaper if I wanted to. Your comments highlight the fact that you are inexperienced in trading and have no idea what your talking about.

 

One of the main reasons I sold was bc of the exchange rate risk. I predict that the USD will be much stronger this yr due to the reversing of Q.Easing. This is confirmed by Trump himself today:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-says-dollar-to-get-stronger-and-stronger.html

 

I really think there will be high volatility and a correction this yr in the markets. 

 

I recommend that you be careful writing about things that you have no idea about. This advice is for free. 

 

 

trump is not god.  i hope your business u are starting isnt a ladyboy bar . u know 50% of these go belly up.  more risk than the stock market

[yogavnture]

2 hours ago, The Theory said:

"The best advice someone ever gave me 25 years ago was "trade what you see is happening and not what you think will happen". 

???

 

what you see is what they want you to see. Smart guys make their own move. 

 

amen....guys like him actually help the rest of us out.

[hugh2121]

20 hours ago, xylophone said:

Research doesn't support this and those that do beat the market (around 15%) do not do it on a consistent basis.  

 

"For ordinary investors, Warren Buffett recommends they own an index fund.

It will do better on balance than what they will get if they go to professionals," Buffett told CNBC"  AND

 

"Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of large-cap funds lagged a simple S&P 500 index fund. The percentages of mid-cap and small-cap funds lagging their benchmarks were even higher: 95.4% and 93.2%, respectively"". 

 

"Most striking, the study shows that small cap, mid cap and large passive funds have drastically outperformed their active peers over 5, 10, and 15 year periods. The detailed report, chock full of hard data, deals a setback to active managers as a group, many of whom have argued that they do well when results are averaged out over a long period".

 

The stats we used in our Investment Advisory Division were that around 85% of active managers don't beat the market (index funds).

What you is say mostly true but it is not the complete picture. While past performance is no guarantee etc. You can easily get the measure of a manager from his previous performance which is easily available. I agree that somebody who doesn't know where to look or doesn't understand the figures is better off in a tracker. Personally, I would rather have a manager like Terry Smith than trust my dosh to a tracker any day. Trackers contain dogs as well as high fliers and the dogs tend to pull overall performance down. Smith is not the only manager to beat the index on a regular basis but you have to look for them.Just as important as picking the right manager and the right fund, you first have to pick the sector you think will perform. Trackers will not tell you that. S&P 500 contains many stocks from many sectors but for an investor outside the US the performance depends very much on FX which is another ball game entirely.

Right now the place to be, seems to be Asia and Japan. My Asia inc Japan fund has outperformed indices (expressed in GBP) from the time I bought it last year. 

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, hugh2121 said:

What you is say mostly true but it is not the complete picture. While past performance is no guarantee etc. You can easily get the measure of a manager from his previous performance which is easily available. I agree that somebody who doesn't know where to look or doesn't understand the figures is better off in a tracker. Personally, I would rather have a manager like Terry Smith than trust my dosh to a tracker any day. Trackers contain dogs as well as high fliers and the dogs tend to pull overall performance down. Smith is not the only manager to beat the index on a regular basis but you have to look for them.Just as important as picking the right manager and the right fund, you first have to pick the sector you think will perform. Trackers will not tell you that. S&P 500 contains many stocks from many sectors but for an investor outside the US the performance depends very much on FX which is another ball game entirely.

Right now the place to be, seems to be Asia and Japan. My Asia inc Japan fund has outperformed indices (expressed in GBP) from the time I bought it last year. 

Dollar weakness and comments appearing to favour it haven't helped Asian funds or Terry Smith these past two days, they've all fallen quite substantially as a result - Fundsmith, Lindsell Train Global and Bailie Gifford International are in the same boat as Fidelity Asia et al.

[hugh2121]

12 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Dollar weakness and comments appearing to favour it haven't helped Asian funds or Terry Smith these past two days, they've all fallen quite substantially as a result - Fundsmith, Lindsell Train Global and Bailie Gifford International are in the same boat as Fidelity Asia et al.

As you say, two days!!!

They are doing better than their respective indices Year to Date.

[simoh1490]

39 minutes ago, hugh2121 said:

As you say, two days!!!

They are doing better than their respective indices Year to Date.

To be honest I haven't checked, it's only in the last month that I've begun to consider the possibility of using trackers instead of managed funds and this for a number reasons:

 

A decent managed global fund is unlikely to span all the regions I want to cover hence I need to buy filler funds to obtain that coverage - decent managed funds can have an OCF of 1.5% which is not cheap. As a result I need to hold between six and ten funds to obtain the geographic spread I require.

 

I hold a number of five star rated funds that are led by fund managers who are in the top 5% of their game and have excellent track records. Despite those things, their funds still slip from first to 4th quartile from time to time but the OCF remains the same, naturally. So there I'm holding poor performing funds and paying top shelf prices.

 

Trying to piece together a portfolio that has the right mix of assets, allocated to the right sector, at the right level and keeping it there, AND, monitoring and adjusting that portfolio according to events and changes globally, takes expertise and time....it is not quick and it is not easy.

 

So whilst I don't want to get caught up in a tracker versus managed fund debate, I am absolutely certain that trackers are better suited to some types of people, for a variety of different reasons and frankly, I think performance is probably quite a way down the list.

 

 

 

 

[yogavnture]

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

To be honest I haven't checked, it's only in the last month that I've begun to consider the possibility of using trackers instead of managed funds and this for a number reasons:

 

A decent managed global fund is unlikely to span all the regions I want to cover hence I need to buy filler funds to obtain that coverage - decent managed funds can have an OCF of 1.5% which is not cheap. As a result I need to hold between six and ten funds to obtain the geographic spread I require.

 

I hold a number of five star rated funds that are led by fund managers who are in the top 5% of their game and have excellent track records. Despite those things, their funds still slip from first to 4th quartile from time to time but the OCF remains the same, naturally. So there I'm holding poor performing funds and paying top shelf prices.

 

Trying to piece together a portfolio that has the right mix of assets, allocated to the right sector, at the right level and keeping it there, AND, monitoring and adjusting that portfolio according to events and changes globally, takes expertise and time....it is not quick and it is not easy.

 

So whilst I don't want to get caught up in a tracker versus managed fund debate, I am absolutely certain that trackers are better suited to some types of people, for a variety of different reasons and frankly, I think performance is probably quite a way down the list.

 

 

 

 

im sure the guy who sold his Nasdaq shares to start a bar will like your post

[yogavnture]

5 hours ago, advancebooking said:

Its a fairly daft comment to make based on what OP has done. He has taken profits- he's out of the market. What does he care what happens in a few weeks time.

 

 

 

 

Its possible that the Fed will likely not succeed in its Q.E unwinding program. This  is because the markets might have to put up with a big correction before the Fed relents and reverses the program and goes back to printing money again pumping up liquidity. If rates start to rise and the shrinking of the balance sheets proceed then stock prices and property prices will go down but the Fed will change course and push them back up. There will be a lot of volatility and thus opportunties this yr...

 

trump tax cuts to corporations. alot of them report earnings jan 31. lets see. i see the market actually going up this year. due to trump tax cuts . corps making money hand over fist

[Pinot]

On 1/25/2018 at 9:46 AM, 12DrinkMore said:

 

I believe all those provide a high rate because they are returning not just the dividends but also capital to maintain the high yield. This will work fine in a bull market such as we have been experiencing for the last decade, but in a downturn they will not be able to keep up the high yield without depleting the capital base. They are not without risk.

 

I have never understood why people buy the "Fund of Funds" vehicles. You end up paying management charges upon management charges.

 

Then your beliefs are wrong. That's unsustainable and none of the funds I quoted do that. You don't understand CEFs. 

 

FOF, like some fund of funds (there are a few), sells at a discount to most of the funds it owns selling at a discount. It's compounding the discount of the funds it owns. It more than makes up for management fees. It's a CEF offering a nice return (8%) and was up 23% last year. That's why this person bought a fund of funds. 

[Pinot]

 

On 1/25/2018 at 2:18 PM, hugh2121 said:

Yes, index funds are low cost. But don't you think you get what you pay for, given a little research of your own? There are some great fund managers out there who beat the indices on a regular basis.

Nope, no manager consistasntly does it and in the long run...none of them do, not a single one. 

 

On 1/25/2018 at 4:29 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

I am surprised nobody have mentioned corporate bonds.

You can get 5-7% tax free without much risk.

Dividends from corporate bonds are taxed at short-term income rates and they're very volatile. They're down significantly in the last six months. 

[yogavnture]

earnings report jan 31. that will tell alot.  

[hugh2121]

19 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

To be honest I haven't checked, it's only in the last month that I've begun to consider the possibility of using trackers instead of managed funds and this for a number reasons:

 

A decent managed global fund is unlikely to span all the regions I want to cover hence I need to buy filler funds to obtain that coverage - decent managed funds can have an OCF of 1.5% which is not cheap. As a result I need to hold between six and ten funds to obtain the geographic spread I require.

 

I hold a number of five star rated funds that are led by fund managers who are in the top 5% of their game and have excellent track records. Despite those things, their funds still slip from first to 4th quartile from time to time but the OCF remains the same, naturally. So there I'm holding poor performing funds and paying top shelf prices.

 

Trying to piece together a portfolio that has the right mix of assets, allocated to the right sector, at the right level and keeping it there, AND, monitoring and adjusting that portfolio according to events and changes globally, takes expertise and time....it is not quick and it is not easy.

 

So whilst I don't want to get caught up in a tracker versus managed fund debate, I am absolutely certain that trackers are better suited to some types of people, for a variety of different reasons and frankly, I think performance is probably quite a way down the list.

 

 

 

 

Completely agree with your sentiment. However, today I've had a look at 3,347 funds, not individually of course and I've found something which has always put me off trackers.

In the last:

1 mth, highest performing tracker - position 66

3 mth highest performing tracker - position 140

6 mth highest performing tracker - position 222

1 yr highest performing tracker - position 230

2016 highest performing tracker - position 94

2015 highest performing tracker - position 105

 

Personally, I would not buy (or retain) a managed fund which was so far down the performance tables but tracker fanatics do and they think they're getting a good deal because of minimal charges. Also, bear in mind that the quoted returns are net of all management charges. I would prefer to pay a decent manager 1.5% a year if he returns to me 5, 10, 15 per cent more than a tracker.

 

Buffet's comment about a S&P tracker is aimed firstly at those whose currency is the USD and secondly at those who fancy a dabble in direct ownership of stocks and shares (as he does) but do not know enough about them. The US fund universe appears to be very different from that in the UK.