Bullet train or chug-a-lug?: Thai PM orders the Japanese to slow down to save money

[smutcakes]

6 minutes ago, shady86 said:

29 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

 
Fair enough- i have worked here for 10 years and have some CM clients, but most of them are based in BKK, travel here regularly, or can use a telephone, conference facilities. I just struggle to see CM ever being such a place where meetings of such high importance need to be taking place face to face on the ground in CM for there to be a steady stream of passengers travelling on a HST. 
 
 

Most of my customers are Japanese companies located in Northern region industrial estate and Japanese have different way of doing business. That's why you can see many Japanese business traveller's using this route and why the Japanese are keen to build a high speed railway.

I think it is fair to say you are scraping the barrel a bit. If Japanese business in industrial estates was the precursor of a need for HSR, there would be on already to the Eastern Seaboard. How many occupiers of Industrial Estates are there in and around CM? Lamphun IE? Cannot be many. I have worked in an industry which relies heavily on Japanese manufacturing for 10 years and i have never ever had one Japanese client even mention CM.

 

Edit: A cursory glance indicates that Lamphun is the ONLY Industrial estate with about 50 occupiers. Say 60% Japanese, so 30 companies from Japan, i am not sure that justifies Japan investing in HSR.

Edited February 10, 2018 by smutcakes

[mtls2005]

 

There are 50-ish daily, non-stop flights between Bangkok and Chiang Mai. Flight time is 1:15. Average price might be 1,500 one-way.

 

With limited daily departures, travel time 3X +, and a price equal or greater, who will be taking this train?

 

Unless you’re going somewhere in between – this HSR line is projected to have between 12 and 17 stops, or transporting your emotional-support water buffalo, why would anyone take the train? 

 

The SRT is easily the worst-run state enterprise in the history of Thailand, and they are massively in debt (forgetting about their valuable land holdings).

 

I know Junta supremo Prayuth rode the Shinkansen and was suitably impressed, but much will be lost in the translation bringing such a thing to Thailand.

 

Just finish the double-tracking, maybe more locomotive and rolling-stock upgrades and try to turn a profit.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

I would also question how many people travel regularly between Chiang Mai and BKK, or indeed have any necessity or desire to do so. Aside from specific times of the year when CM is very popular with Thais, there does not seem to be any specific reason why people would suddenly increase their trips there.

Seriously? Several trains every day between Bkk and Chiang Mai. The railways wouldn't run so many without passengers.

Perhaps you have overlooked that the train actually stops along the way as well in towns other than Chiang Mai.

[thaibeachlovers]

36 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

There are 50-ish daily, non-stop flights between Bangkok and Chiang Mai. Flight time is 1:15. Average price might be 1,500 one-way.

 

With limited daily departures, travel time 3X +, and a price equal or greater, who will be taking this train?

 

Unless you’re going somewhere in between – this HSR line is projected to have between 12 and 17 stops, or transporting your emotional-support water buffalo, why would anyone take the train? 

 

The SRT is easily the worst-run state enterprise in the history of Thailand, and they are massively in debt (forgetting about their valuable land holdings).

 

I know Junta supremo Prayuth rode the Shinkansen and was suitably impressed, but much will be lost in the translation bringing such a thing to Thailand.

 

Just finish the double-tracking, maybe more locomotive and rolling-stock upgrades and try to turn a profit.

 

 

Seems to me that people are either complaining about Global warming/ climate change caused by people flying on too many planes, or wanting even more polluting planes in the air bringing the end of the world even sooner.

Personally, anything that removed as many planes as possible from the planet is a good thing. If nothing else, high speed trains in LOS and no planes would be a good deal, IMO.

[ChouDoufu]

concerning scheduling, you could compare to the chinese

line on hainan island.

 

distance from haikou city in the north to sanya in the south

is 285 km.  the train runs at speeds up to 250/kmh.

(bkk to chiang mai about 680 km)

 

there are 12 runs per day between 7am and 9pm.  trains

take 2 to 2-1/2 hours, depending on how many stops are

made, 6-10 stops along the route.  tickets cost about

500 baht 2nd class, 1000 baht 1st class.

 

so....medium speed 200/kmh trains from bkk to cm with

limited stops along the way would take about 5-6 hours.

 

the old-fangled low-speed train on the western side does

two runs taking 4-1/2 hours.  tickets cost 400 baht for a seat

or 800 baht for a berth in a 6-bunk sleeper compartment.

(trains then load onto ferries across the strait to the mainland,

to guangzhou or shanghai or beijing)

 

travel by bus between the two cities on the national highway

takes about 3 hours.  cost is 400 baht for a VIP bus, or

250 baht for an ordinary bus.  buses leave every 15 minutes.

 

[Bill Miller]

2 hours ago, jenny2017 said:

 

The PM therefore has said that the train should only go 180 to 200 kilometers an hour to keep costs down.

 

  A 180 to 200  km/h fast "bullet train?"   

Really. My BMW motorbike would go 200 kph... auf der Autobahn, not on Thai roads!

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, jenny2017 said:

Most Thais are aware that trains are "Seer Wellaa", or wasted time. Within a time period of only ten months, the locomotives of two trains broke down in the middle of nowhere and replacement took many hours. The country isn't ready for high speed trains, aeeh accidents and they know that. 

 

 

 

     

Shinkansen will only be well operated in Japan with better educated and trained personnel, good work ethics and responsible managers. It didn’t fair that well in Taiwan which is the only country outside Japan having Shinkansen. It is highly expensive. Thailand is not ready for such a sophiscated train system and better stick to making improvement of the current old trains.

[hansnl]

3 hours ago, shady86 said:

Might as well cancel it or give it to the Chinese.

Indeed, give it to China as a extension of their strategic railways.

GIVE!

Including land, including tracks, including stations, including everything.

[Classic Ray]

2 hours ago, ratcatcher said:

Prayut has finally shown a modicum of common sense and seems willing to "bite the bullet" in this regard..

Bullet trains for Thailand, a slowly developing country, are the sort of thing dreamed up by the power guys during a good night's drinking session.

Thailand has just over half the population of Japan,  and a fraction of the industrial base. Japan has over 10 major cities scattered across the country, all with populations over 1 million.

http://www.geonames.org/JP/largest-cities-in-japan.html

Thailand's major industrial area is located in the eastern seaboard provinces of Chonburi and Rayong.

Thailand has 1 major city, Bangkok, with a population in excess of 5 million. What is in Chiang Mai?

https://population.mongabay.com/population/thailand/

As many members of this forum have previously posted, what this country needs, are fast, comfortable, reliable, safe trains that are affordable for the average citizen and that are operated on a modern R.O.W. with centralized signalling and good management.

Countries like  France, Germany and to a lesser extent the U.K., have HST which is heavily used,and have large populations scattered around the country in large urban areas, necessitating a comprehensive rail system. Industries are a major user of railways in western countries.

Thailand needs to pull in its horns and face the fact that "bullet trains" are not realistic or affordable at this time.

Chug a lug------

What you need to factor in is the chance for Thailand to at last develop outside provincial Bangkok. This requires good fast road and rail infrastructure to allow factories and housing to be built throughout the country and agricultural produce, industrial products and passengers to be swiftly transported by rail.

 

The double tracking projects will help with this, and the bullet trains will allow people to live and do business outside Bangkok whilst retaining the ability to quickly travel to the capital.

 

Once the line is downgraded to lower speeds   It has no chance of being improved later at reasonable cost.

 

Thailand needs to bite the bullet now!

[hansnl]

3 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

I question the need for a bullet train service to be honest. 

 

Not that there’s going to be one if the pm gets his way...

Indeed, what is the need?

Two different systems between the same stations will mean that both will be unprofitable.

Better spend half the money to upgrade the existing network, for speeds up till the maximum (175 km/h), buy pendolino trains, or even hang wires for electric trains.

Cheaper in the long run.

[Bill Miller]

We are travelling to CM from Bkk (DM airport) within the week. 1 1/2 hours flight time, cost under 4000 baht for two people. Current train , 11 hours, second class tickets 1,800 baht for two.
What do you suppose the cost would be for the new non bullet bullet train?
The chug chug might be fun on the daytime run. I have travelled across North America this way a few times. Great way to see a country, IMO.
We are going to visit family, however, and my partner has limited holiday time from work.
If they could somehow improve the bureaucratic bottlenecks at the airports, that would perhaps be a better use of funds.

[Lupatria]

From bullet train to table fireworks 

[BEngBKK]

So bullet train in Thailand travel with same speed  as most standard trains in Europe 

[jenny2017]

41 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Shinkansen will only be well operated in Japan with better educated and trained personnel, good work ethics and responsible managers. It didn’t fair that well in Taiwan which is the only country outside Japan having Shinkansen. It is highly expensive. Thailand is not ready for such a sophiscated train system and better stick to making improvement of the current old trains.

Only another wet dream within a dream? The country couldn't even build its own elevated railways, let alone the service of high tech trains. i remember an accident with a Siemens train some years ago where they'd switched off the security system and a train collided with another. "Bangkok Post" was advertising jobs for German train drivers back then...

 

  Govt wants German train drivers, staff trainers for subway - Bangkok Post, January 22, 2005
Specialists from Germany are likely to be put in charge of subway operations when services are resumed to ensure safety, said Transport Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit... link removed by......??

 

   http://2bangkok.com/2bangkok-subway-crash.html

 

  Deutsche Bahn in Germany is unable to fill positions for high tech train drivers and a high school education is needed. But high schools in LOS are a bit different, ruffly speaking.  

 

  

http://www.dw.com/en/training-train-drivers/av-17408692

 

[eddie61]

Here is the obvious solution for moving people, which already exists.

 

Maybe there isn't enough money in it to feed the pigs....

 

For freight, 120 kmh is sufficient, and energy efficient.

 

The Chinese will already own access to Sattahip naval base and Utapao airport through their proposed railway from Laos.

 

Game over! Pearl necklace and a Chinese takeaway for Thailand....

Edited February 10, 2018 by eddie61

[YetAnother]

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The Japanese have also told ministerial counterparts in Thailand that their financial involvement is in providing loans and nothing else.

thailand tries to play with the big boys and gets knocked down

[Will E Vormer]

Amazing oxymoron, a slow bullet train.

What I find working with Thai's is how unrealistic they can be. They are never accountable and (try to)put all the responsibility on others.

Once I figured that out, I hired a thai go-between, which solved most problems.


Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[Eric Loh]

30 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

thailand tries to play with the big boys and gets knocked down

It was Prayut trying to play with the big boys after his first and only train ride and got his face smattered with eggs now. Shinkansen was his ide. Original Yingluck idea was a Chinese PPP arrangement. By the way, the Singapore and Malaysia HST to KL will be Chinese. 

[overherebc]

I have memories of when the route 7 was first open and in quite a few areas wooden steps were built over the wall borders so people could climb over them to cross both sides. When they started putting up the wire fences holes were cut to allow the wooden steps to be used again.

I can see if this goes ahead the same things going on on a fast railway.

[Cadbury]

4 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

Don't know what all the fuss is about as it will never be built anyway !

 

Construction on the first stage was supposed to commence this month. But it seems they have run out of money before they even start. Prayut is punting all his money on his 100billion baht populist "Thai Niyom"  programme. Being popular is far more important than a few semi .

[Lingba]

what a joke...bullet train=fast....might as well get a coal burning locomotive

[Justgrazing]

5 hours ago, ratcatcher said:

Prayut has finally shown a modicum of common sense and seems willing to "bite the bullet" in this regard..

Bullet trains for Thailand, a slowly developing country, are the sort of thing dreamed up by the power guys during a good night's drinking session.

Thailand has just over half the population of Japan,  and a fraction of the industrial base. Japan has over 10 major cities scattered across the country, all with populations over 1 million.

http://www.geonames.org/JP/largest-cities-in-japan.html

Thailand's major industrial area is located in the eastern seaboard provinces of Chonburi and Rayong.

Thailand has 1 major city, Bangkok, with a population in excess of 5 million. What is in Chiang Mai?

https://population.mongabay.com/population/thailand/

As many members of this forum have previously posted, what this country needs, are fast, comfortable, reliable, safe trains that are affordable for the average citizen and that are operated on a modern R.O.W. with centralized signalling and good management.

Countries like  France, Germany and to a lesser extent the U.K., have HST which is heavily used,and have large populations scattered around the country in large urban areas, necessitating a comprehensive rail system. Industries are a major user of railways in western countries.

Thailand needs to pull in its horns and face the fact that "bullet trains" are not realistic or affordable at this time.

Chug a lug------

Top post that Ratcatcher .. ?

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, smutcakes said:

will the heads of the NCPO be found personally liable for all the money wasted?

No.

As part of the Junta's Interim Charter, it and all its surrogates have immunity past, present and future. But with its absolute power it can indict and prosecute anyone else past, present and future.

[Cadbury]

5 hours ago, ratcatcher said:

Prayut has finally shown a modicum of common sense

I doubt from history that common sense has much to do with it. If he is preferring to reduce the speed to reduce the cost I believe it a good idea but I suggest the real reason is more to do with saving money that he can spend trying to making make himself popular in the country. Such as his "snouts in the trough "Thai Niyom" 100 billion baht populist scheme to buy adoration and acclaim in frog kissing territories. More a question of priorities for him personally and some sleight of hand with money shuffling.

[Cadbury]

6 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Maybe this is the solution to saving costs and lives.

I can hardly believe the Thais wouldn't steal a great idea like that from the Vietnamese? Or would they? 

Edited February 10, 2018 by Cadbury

[Will E Vormer]

Maybe a not that fast bullet train is a thai buddhist 'find the middle path' thing.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

If not Shinkansen, the Japanese will not build it. They will also not invest.

Not sure what you mean by these comments.

Japan is solely a lender. It is not an investor in the project.Thailand's failure to service its loan will be addressed by any default remedies in the loan agreement. I don't recall seeing any published specifics in the agreement covering that aspect to guess what those provisions are.

 

But certainly the Japanese can have many options outside the loan agreement to penalize Thailand if it breaches the loan agreement. Japanese investment in the EEC comes immediately to mind wherein it could retaliate by demanding a renegotiated EEC Development agreement or withdraw all its billions USD investments in EEC. And as we saw with China that feared Thailand's possible default on the dual rail project, it insisted on much higher interest rates for risk of loan default or an upfront substantial cash fee that basically equated to the incremental higher interest rate cost (the latter actually was agreed!).

 

Private Japanese firms have contracts with Thailand to build parts of the high speed project whose costs are based on specific project specifications. This in turn drives their profit margins. If Thailand unilaterally changes the specifications it essentially breaches these contracts and damages those firms. That will no doubt activate contract default provisions - no doubt that will be expensive.

 

The bottom line is that Prayut made a mistake with this project but Japan will not be damaged by that. Ultimately, Prayut loses face (he has immunity from losses) but the Thai taxpayer will pay in more taxes and/or in reduced social benefits.

 

 

[chainarong]

6 hours ago, sweatalot said:

I think the lower speed would fit better to Thai safety standards

It not only fits safety standards it also fits their treasury balance sheet, Thailands biggest mistake is not taking into account maintenance costs and training, they also run into Billions yearly.

[chainarong]

30 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

No.

As part of the Junta's Interim Charter, it and all its surrogates have immunity past, present and future. But with its absolute power it can indict and prosecute anyone else past, present and future.

Reminds me of a one headed coin in two up.

[mok199]

just build another mall