I have been calculatin'

[Mark1066]

1 hour ago, amykat said:

Your comment about foreigner's seeing their savings erode back home, is also just a moment in time, and in terms of baht.  That can change in a relative instant back to being good again.  There were foreigners here during the Asian financial crisis who were "all in" and lost everything.  I know a few.  And there were some who were not and benefited. 

 

This thinking of yours is called "recency bias".  You think your recent experience is what will keep happening.  It might be true, but it is not necessarily true.

You seem to be choosing to only read half my posts and then misunderstanding them. This is the salient point I am trying to make:

 

Quote

I'm not saying investing in this country is easy or foolproof, I am just questioning what seems to be something of a consensus on this forum regarding opinions on where to keep your liquid and other assets.

Nowhere did I say the current trend would continue or the movements of the last decade would repeat themselves in the future but for people to base future investment decisions on the hope that whilst the majority opinion may have been wrong for the last ten years it might not be wrong for the next would seem to be even more myopic than you are accusing me of being. I do not focus my investment decisions entirely on exchange rates; exchange rates are the topic of this thread, hence my focus here and now (well, I do focus on exchange rates when making short-term investments but that is because of the nature of those investments and is not relevant to this discusssion).

 

In summary, I am saying that telling people who emigrate to Thailand to bring as few of their assets as possible is not always good advice and I illustrated that point with an example of a UK citizen, much like myself, who moved here in the last 10-15 years. I am not saying one should transfer all their assets, I am questioning the expertise and reasoning of those who recommend bringing none of them.

 

EDIT: So really we are both saying that one cannot forecast future exchange rates but we are coming at it from different angles.

Edited February 23, 2018 by Mark1066

[amykat]

6 hours ago, Mark1066 said:

How is that the moral of the story? Most foreigners who have lived here for more than a decade would be considerably better off in terms of their home currencies if they had transferred all their money and assets into Thailand when they first arrived.

 Mark,

 

I was responding to this with the majority of my thoughts.  Where you say "ALL their money and assets to Thailand when they first arrived."

 

I wasn't maybe specific enough, but you sound like you have been here long enough to know, that the warnings against bringing everything here have more to do with other things, and not currency risk.  Those many faceted things are especially not apparent to newcomers here and  might take years to learn about.  Some things are not apparent to people who are not very good with investing in general or understanding the law.  Some people are very talented in certain areas in life and very capable but just tend to suck in this area and do stupid things and this is not a good place to do that. 

 

I think it has also been shown that most expats don't last long here. Less than 2 years or 5 years or something is quite common.  You have to give advice that is more comprehensive.  I believe that is what most people are trying to do. Saving 10% on currency exchange for a year is nothing in comparison to losing your ass!!  Maybe you haven't met any of those people and that is the problem??

 

There are many things to be considered before bringing all your assets to Thailand, if you do indeed have a lot of assets, even if you are very astute. There are many limitations to doing that and you better understand what they are and why you are doing it and if you are being compensated for that risk, in your opinion.  I would not do it in a million years!!  I am of the opinion that no amount of currency gains could pay me for that.   But I am sure it works out for some people.

[Skeptic7]

On 2/21/2018 at 9:18 PM, theguyfromanotherforum said:

I guess I'm the only one. Yay!

Nope, not just you. The $1 USD was getting ฿36.00 on 12/28/2016...฿31.45 now.. Down 12% in 14 just months.

Most of us are taking a "bath" on the baht. 

[mogandave]

And a NASDAQ index fund is up 30% over the same period.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[watcharacters]

1 hour ago, Skeptic7 said:

Nope, not just you. The $1 USD was getting ฿36.00 on 12/28/2016...฿31.45 now.. Down 12% in 14 just months.

Most of us are taking a "bath" on the baht. 

 

 

Correct for about a few minutes...

 

Edit:    For posters and TVF  members, I'd suggest using the London police approach with the  "nothing to see here,   just move on" ..

 

Edited February 23, 2018 by watcharacters

[EVENKEEL]

Some of us buy homes and property not for thoughts of making money for ourselves but for the future of wife and children. Some parts of Thailand have booming property prices and as overpriced as they seem, they will only increase.

[mogandave]

In my opinion, real property (a and equities to a certain degree) is the only true long term hedge against currency and inflation.

 

[DUNROAMIN]

21 hours ago, Mark1066 said:

How is that the moral of the story? Most foreigners who have lived here for more than a decade would be considerably better off in terms of their home currencies if they had transferred all their money and assets into Thailand when they first arrived.

If you can enlighten me to where you would be better of by transferring all your money to Thailand. I personally have not seen any sound investments in Thailand, not unless you have the right connections with under the table dealings with Thailand's biggest infrastructure. "MR CORRUPTION."

[Mark1066]

1 hour ago, DUNROAMIN said:

If you can enlighten me to where you would be better of by transferring all your money to Thailand. I personally have not seen any sound investments in Thailand, not unless you have the right connections with under the table dealings with Thailand's biggest infrastructure. "MR CORRUPTION."

I think enlightening you may be beyond me. Sorry.

[denby45]

On 2/23/2018 at 5:18 PM, britishrepublican said:

Those percentages you're using are way off. There is no cheaper way to move money than using crypto.

I can assure you I am not way off at all. Have you actually done it? And if so I will repeat my request for enlightenment. I have done the changing exercise and I know what it costs. There are 2 exchanges involved. The first the exchange e.g. your GBP to bitcoin and the second to change it again to THB. Including exchange fees it is close to 4% each. If your wallets are with the exchanges then there is also a fee to move from one wallet to another which fair enough is not expensive at all. Perhaps this is the “cheapest way to move money” you are talking about. However to get from GBP to THB using this method is not recommended. Now you may ask why I used this method if it is so expensive. I actually didn’t use it to move money from UK to Thailand but I did buy and sell bitcoin in both countries so I know the costs. And I did transfer at one time bitcoin across wallets to test the mechanism.

Please be assured there is no single body I hate more than the grabbing banks but unfortunately they are still far cheaper than the example above.

Perhaps you are looking at trading platforms which have small spreads which is another thing altogether. You never take possession.

 

Hope this helps

 

Den

[theguyfromanotherforum]

The Canadian dog is taking more and more beating falling to record lows since.... let's see

 

Wow.... that looks very nasty.

 

Will real estate crash next?

 

 

[Delight]

On 22/02/2018 at 5:30 PM, CanuckThai said:

I agree with keeping funds in Canada, and keeping a minimum Baht float.   The best solution I've found for myself, has been opening a Thai and Canadian  "E currency" trading account.  You can fund your "E currency" account when you want, online from your Canadian bank, then send yourself an amount of "Ecoin",  sell it, deposit funds into your Thai bank account.  At this point, you actually make money transferring CDN bought Ecoin, to Thai.Bx.  Example: buy $1000 worth of bitcoin, send it to your "ewallet" here, sell it, deposit approx 26500 Baht into your thai bank account.  The whole process is very quick (usually less than an hour to have funds in your thai account, from time of purchase of ecoin in Canada).

From what you state is it impossible to lose money using the Bit coin process ?

[EnlightenedAtheist]

https://jugglingdynamite.com/

 

It is going to be ugly. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

18 hours ago, EnlightenedAtheist said:

https://jugglingdynamite.com/

 

It is going to be ugly. 

Why?

 

What article is indicating so?

[zaZa9]

IMO , theres a lot more to it than just the ratios.

I came to Phuket for a holiday in 1980 , and the rate was 20:1 US !

So when I moved to Phuket in 2008 , 28:1 aud  seemed great value...

However , you couldnt get a beach bungalow for a buck US ( 30 baht then ) at Kata anymore.... bummer ...555

 

So there is inflation to consider , of course.

My first 5 years saw an average of 29.3 on the aud , but it also saw the  Mookata ( all you can eat bbq )  on Nanai rd.,  rise from 109 baht to 169 baht. Today they are more like 229 baht.

In my tgs city they still cost around 110 baht , so Location therefore  is also a factor.

As is the inflation factor going on - both Nationally , plus ( in LOS ) peculiar somewhat to your location.

 

Then there are interest rates .

On my 800k  tb a year in a Thai bank I get NO interest. ( My deposit   has now been upped to 1 mill annually btw  ) 

But the aud IN aus has always attracted good secure  interest rate returns , and my first 5 years here  returned me 6%  pa ... so where you keep your money is also another  factor.

 

There was a time ( oh , so briefly ! 55 ) that the aud hit 31.5 , and as I had cash in the bank , and the aud was slipping ,  so  I sat down with some friends to discuss cashing in on that rate , and bringing in $200k aud and banking it here in LOS .

They didnt like the idea , and sighted : the wobbly political situation of the time ( and it was ) , and potential problems transporting the money 'out' again ,  the lack of accountability of many a Thai bank should money  go missing ,  and the lack of interest return. ALSO  what would happen to my cash , should I die .... and I'd been very unwell at the time. ( So now the factors of  National security ,  transportability  , banking security , and  a personal reason were at play .) 

 

I heeded them , and left my aud in aus  , but later  transferred a lot ( for me ! 55 )  into my  long forgotten superannuation account  , which has consequently  done extremely well -  not that I 'predicted ' that  - tho its historical return was way, way  better than the 1.8% my bank was now offerring  when I really looked in to it   .

But sometimes , especially last time (  I only import cash once a year ) ,  when I got 25.1 tb on my aud , I quietly curse myself for asking anyone ! 555

 

Anyone who could have put all these factors together and planned a better result - well , I take my hat off to them... I certainly couldnt have seen which way the wind was to blow...

 

So it goes ... Im of the feeling that there are so many factors that can change in a couple of months that I will  never be able to predict anything  ( including other things like relationships , health etc ) very well. 

 

I do feel that "our " currencies wont do too well in the long term simply because our , well MY government anyway , says they dont want that to happen.

So then  I will do what I did when my money or income wasnt doing so good back when I worked , and hunker down , and watch it a bit more carefully.

That may have to happen ..

And I certainly wont be buying 'feel good' stuff like a new truck , golf membership etc .. 

 

And I wont be buying property. In my name or anyone elses. I need that capital to return me an  income wherein I could rent two of the nice house I rent now and all would still be ok. And considering  how jammed Phuket has been these last 3 months , I need to be able to move if things keep going in that direction .. so 'fluidity' is  yet another factor for me.

 

Its all different for all of us , tho one thing I learnt always rings true.

 

My Dad said , "Live to your means , but dont ever be mean ( ie selfish or a tightwad ) !"  and so far Ive had a very good life on that advice...

I  realized  I dont "need"  as much as I ever needed back home , since  living here , and the older I get , the less I  have 'need' of anything as well  ... and I think many a TV member is probably  much the same.

 

 

[mogandave]

My Dad said , "Live to your means , but dont ever be mean...

Good advice that...