'Limited time' for daring rescue mission to free Thailand's trapped boys

[smutcakes]

1 minute ago, JAZZDOG said:

There is little doubt the oxygen issue can be dealt with. The problem IMHO and not bashing the Thais is this entire deal has been rather less than proactive, kinda knee-jerk. Right now there is no excuse but to have unlimited pumping capacity. I am not talking RIB but rather a round or square survival raft. They can be compressed to fit into a large suit case size container or if need be taken out, lashed like a snake and feed thru. You use whatever size that fits thru and maybe just increase the quantity.

I have faith if Elon Musk gets involved many of these issues will become non- issues. 

 

Each to their own. Personally i think you are massively oversimplifying the issues and are understating the complexity and difficulty of the terrain they have to go through to get there. 

 

Your Elon Musk comment is quite frankly ridiculous.

[JAZZDOG]

14 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I totally agree the dive in these conditions is super dangerous but I don't share your total confidence yet that staying in place is really a survivable option. Above my pay grade, sorry.

Me too. My optimism comes from the worldwide support from guys like Musk who have nobody above their pay scale. This might sound cruel but I'm not ready to start  putting X's over the faces of those little boys in that picture. That's not an option and I fear that will happen if they undertake this plan.

I surfed and dove my entire life and I know with no uncertainty I would stay put.  

At this point lets keep them ALL alive one day at a time until we reach a better option.

[TonyClifton]

2 minutes ago, JAZZDOG said:

Me too. My optimism comes from the worldwide support from guys like Musk who have nobody above their pay scale. This might sound cruel but I'm not ready to start  putting X's over the faces of those little boys in that picture. That's not an option and I fear that will happen if they undertake this plan.

I surfed and dove my entire life and I know with no uncertainty I would stay put.  

At this point lets keep them ALL alive one day at a time until we reach a better option.

That's right, let's not succumb to the human doings.

[digger70]

Why not make a capsule with oxygen on board put the person to sleep and push/pull the capsule from one flooded area to an other ,one doesn't have to go All the way at ones,,,, Just a thought,,,,

[JAZZDOG]

9 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

 

Each to their own. Personally i think you are massively oversimplifying the issues and are understating the complexity and difficulty of the terrain they have to go through to get there. 

 

Your Elon Musk comment is quite frankly ridiculous.

I could not have stated my position better!

You must then be massively oversimplifying the issues and are failing to understanding the complexity and difficulty of the terrain they will have to go thru to get OUT WITH AN 11 YEAR OLD KID WHO CANT FREAKING SWIM. Musk is incredibly talented and has unlimited resources with great organizational skills to make things happen. Who better to volunteer their services? Waiting for your answer.

[JTXR]

Wow.  A lot of non-experts who are not on the ground, seeing the real situation, second-guessing experts (including world-class international experts) who are on the ground.

 

A very good thing no one in a decision-making capacity pays any attention to online forums.

[smutcakes]

1 minute ago, JAZZDOG said:

I could not have stated my position better!

You must then be massively oversimplifying the issues and are failing to understanding the complexity and difficulty of the terrain they will have to go thru to get OUT WITH AN 11 YEAR OLD KID WHO CANT FREAKING SWIM. Musk is incredibly talented and has unlimited resources with great organizational skills to make things happen. Who better to volunteer their services? Waiting for your answer.

Elon Musk is a businessman, why not Warren Buffet, Donald Trump, George Sorros, Bill Gates etc etc etc-- what experience does Elon Musk or any of those people have complex cave evacuations or any situation like this? Why not the head of JCB, they have diggers? Anyway leave this, we are derailing the conversation. 

[JAZZDOG]

1 minute ago, smutcakes said:

Elon Musk is a businessman, why not Warren Buffet, Donald Trump, George Sorros, Bill Gates etc etc etc-- what experience does Elon Musk or any of those people have complex cave evacuations or any situation like this? Why not the head of JCB, they have diggers? Anyway leave this, we are derailing the conversation. 

Read, investigate, you maybe surprised what you learn. I pick Musk, Buffet and Gates, I'll give you those other two for your team. Nice talkin' to ya.

[balo]

I want to support the idea of drilling through the lime stone from top of the cave , we are talking about 600 meters down , on the left of this image , to reach Pattaya beach . .

 

With the right equipment this should not take weeks but a few days.  

 

[maximillian]

 

 

If it was me trapped in that cave I'd take any risk to swim/dive out now,

rather than staying there for another four month.

 

 

[chama]

Blocking holes sounds good but what will it do to the already dropping oxygen levels? And trying to find all of the holes has proven impossible. Apparently a local that collects birds nest has found a hole that has extraction possibilities and no one had found that until the last several hours. They have limited time to get all of this done....hope they pick the things to do that are the most effective. 

[JAZZDOG]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Possibly a place that isn't flooded and oxygen. 

Thought you might find this interesting. Surely a positive development

 

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

[JAZZDOG]

Any news about how the current rain storm is effecting operations?

[Mitker]

2 hours ago, digger70 said:

Why not make a capsule with oxygen on board put the person to sleep and push/pull the capsule from one flooded area to an other ,one doesn't have to go All the way at ones,,,, Just a thought,,,,

Given the very narrow and curved sections they have to go through, the size and rigidity of such a capsule would make it simply impossible to maneuver.

And if we're talking about a flexible one, then we get close to the full mask + some protective gears (head, elbow, knees...)

But getting them drugged and slowly escorted to the exit with the help of the flow seems a realistic option, even if not risk-free

 

Hearing about the first infections and thinking about the mental trauma, the 4 months confinement looks like last option (without the other risks mentioned above)

[Jack100]

1 hour ago, balo said:

I want to support the idea of drilling through the lime stone from top of the cave , we are talking about 600 meters down , on the left of this image , to reach Pattaya beach . .

 

With the right equipment this should not take weeks but a few days.  

 

Seems drilling a hole seems the safest option to me . To drill a  reasonable width hole , say 20" would

require a big size  water well type drilling  rig .? Is it  possible to drag  such a rig up over their location?

Anyone have any ideas  on this ?

[Eligius]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

That would be the main good reason to do the dives. But sadly it's even more complex than that. They might have a theory and plan that they could stay there in place for months but that theory and plan might prove wrong, and then it could be too late. 

Imagine the weight of responsibility on the people making these decisions. 

Yes, Jingthing: I (and I am sure all of us) would hate to be the one who made the final decision on how to rescue the boys. It seems that no option is without considerable risks. It's a terrible, awful, utterly unfair position to be placed in - and I sympathise greatly with whomever has the courage to take the final decision. Presumably, though, it will be a team decision - not just one individual. There needs to be a consensus regarding the method of extracting the boys from this cave - and I think that is what will happen: the experts in the different fields will come to an assessment as to which option offers the best chances. I don't envy them their weighty responsibility. This whole thing - most of all for the trapped boys, of course - is a living nightmare.

[RC8]

6 hours ago, JAZZDOG said:

Very hard to believe as it has already rained twice today. Odds are they never put those kids through that. Getting a 3/4" inch airline to those kids is not rocket science but none the less should have been a top priority already completed. You cited no source so I assume BS. They would have not delayed if the plan was still an option. Presently there is a large line of showers just a few miles to the south stretching from coastal china all the way to the coast of Myanmar. I can pretty much assure you with that much rain just a few miles south no 6 hour operation is going to begin. Last thing we need is to have a flash flood during an extraction. Have you ever thought about the degree of confidence in pulling off that insane plan? 60%, 90% What do you think because you will be flipping a coin 13 times hoping to come up heads every time. Good luck with that but that's the reality.  Keep the kids in place and multi-task the issues involved is the best way forward. Splitting up those kids and taking a shot one at a time is a statistical nightmare.

www.news.com.au/world/asia/frantic-rescuers-battle-against-time-to-free-thai-schoolboys-from-from-cave/news-story/1ff527c95f877abc0f73f8907f0a4eea

 

You assume B.S.?

You assumed wrong.

I'll just wait for my apology......... ?

Edited July 7, 2018 by RC8
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[Tug]

What a crappy position to be in whatever the call those kids are tough the rescuers are tough the worldwide good will and prayers are there hoping praying tug

[Ulic]

8 hours ago, JAZZDOG said:

Statistically if you gave a 95% chance of one child surviving rescue then the chance of surviving two separate rescues would be 90%, three 86% etc. The probability all 13 would survive separate similar rescue attempts would be 51%. If the initial probability were estimated at 90% then the success of 13 rescues would be 25%. If the level of confidence fell to 50/50 then the chance of 13 successful separate rescues would be 1/10,000 same as flipping a coin and getting heads 13 times in a row. That is why staying in place as a group with a higher probability of confidence is much better than 13 separate rescue attempts. Key is to have a contingency to mitigate any problems that should arise before mid-October when the boys walk home. 

What is the probability the whole cave floods out during the rainy season? The first minor monsoon rain of the season was described as turning the cave water flow into a Colorado river like rapid that was impossible to move through. Unless they are certain that there is an area in the cave that remains dry and it will have breathable air they should probably attempt to swim out before the next rain.

[InfinityandBeyond]

1 hour ago, Eligius said:

Yes, Jingthing: I (and I am sure all of us) would hate to be the one who made the final decision on how to rescue the boys. It seems that no option is without considerable risks. It's a terrible, awful, utterly unfair position to be placed in - and I sympathise greatly with whomever has the courage to take the final decision. Presumably, though, it will be a team decision - not just one individual. There needs to be a consensus regarding the method of extracting the boys from this cave - and I think that is what will happen: the experts in the different fields will come to an assessment as to which option offers the best chances. I don't envy them their weighty responsibility. This whole thing - most of all for the trapped boys, of course - is a living nightmare.

Time and weather are the enemies in this situation. Time ticks on regardless bringing more uncertainty and risk (physical and mental) to the team. Mother Nature has been kind this week, but it is inevitable that the rain will come. It is all timing. 

From what I see, the rescue team is making hay while weather conditions are favourable: training the kids and getting them fit enough for extraction. 

But at some point soon, the sky will open up and it will be time to take a calculated risk. 

This operation needs someone with giant cajones at the helm that is focused on getting the kids out and laying out the truth to the public and families rather than worrying about their political future. 

The kids need to get out ASAP before a tragedy turns into a catastrophe. 

[Eligius]

26 minutes ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

Time and weather are the enemies in this situation. Time ticks on regardless bringing more uncertainty and risk (physical and mental) to the team. Mother Nature has been kind this week, but it is inevitable that the rain will come. It is all timing. 

From what I see, the rescue team is making hay while weather conditions are favourable: training the kids and getting them fit enough for extraction. 

But at some point soon, the sky will open up and it will be time to take a calculated risk. 

This operation needs someone with giant cajones at the helm that is focused on getting the kids out and laying out the truth to the public and families rather than worrying about their political future. 

The kids need to get out ASAP before a tragedy turns into a catastrophe. 

There is an unconfirmed report that things are moving now. Let's hope for the very, very best.

[Sheryl]

RT @RichardBarrow 9:28PM

Media on site are reporting that soldiers have put up a green sheet that blocks the view of the cave entrance. This goes all the way up to the field hospital. Speculation is that the rescue will now take place within 48 hours.

 

Of course there was similiar strong rumor on the site of that last night.

 

I have the impression that the key expert divers and the Seals working directly with the boys have already been given authority to commence extraction as soon as they think any of the boys are ready...this notion that a committee will sit and review first, given the time pressure, is absurd.  Nor are they going to make the people at the site first come out to talk to them and get permission, that alone would delay matters 12 hours or more. The technique has already been worked out and practiced (that much has been announced) so it is just a question of when and which boys, and that rests on onsite assessments of the boys and water levels in the cave.

 

If I am right it would explain what went on last night, with the expected major announcement repeatedly delayed and then announced not yet ready to come out - they thought one or more boys might already be  en route and were waiting for the divers to come out and inform, but when the divers did the message then was "not ready yet".

 

They say it is now raining hard there, will add to the pressure.

 

 

 

 

[InfinityandBeyond]

7 minutes ago, Eligius said:

There is an unconfirmed report that things are moving now. Let's hope for the very, very best.

If true, that is good news. 

My assessment is this: waiting until Dec or Jan is a death sentence for the team (and possibly a number of rescuers). 

Striking while the iron is hot (when all available resources are at hand, the kids are in good spirits, and the weather is cooperating) may not see everyone egress from the cave alive, but even one survivor is better than none. 

That being said, the reality is that families should prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. 

[Eligius]

5 minutes ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

If true, that is good news. 

My assessment is this: waiting until Dec or Jan is a death sentence for the team (and possibly a number of rescuers). 

Striking while the iron is hot (when all available resources are at hand, the kids are in good spirits, and the weather is cooperating) may not see everyone egress from the cave alive, but even one survivor is better than none. 

That being said, the reality is that families should prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. 

Unfortunately, it seems that the weather has turned: rain is apparently falling quite hard now. That is just what is NOT needed.

Let's hope for the best. Some of the world's top rescuers are on site - so if anyone can pull this off, they can.

[bprinceuk]

11 hours ago, nausea said:

Very true, but, at the end of the day, it will be judged on the outcome not the pros and cons of any particular course of action. As Hummin said above, someone has to "roll the dice". If it works they'll be lauded, if it fails no doubt there'll be plenty of naysayers criticising their judgement.

 

I was wondering if there was some drug they could give them that might instill confidence and calmness without making them unduly reckless or soporific.

My son learnt to scuba dive one week after his 12th birthday. The instructor told me that young persons were easier to train as they tend to have less fear, whereas adults understand the risks more and this makes the adult to take on the fear factor.

 

R.I.P to the diver who lost his life, a true hero who has paid the ultimate price, giving his life attempting to safe another life.

[InfinityandBeyond]

2 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Unfortunately, it seems that the weather has turned: rain is apparently falling quite hard now. That is just what is NOT needed.

Let's hope for the best. Some of the world's top rescuers are on site - so if anyone can pull this off, they can.

 

3 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Unfortunately, it seems that the weather has turned: rain is apparently falling quite hard now. That is just what is NOT needed.

Let's hope for the best. Some of the world's top rescuers are on site - so if anyone can pull this off, they can.

Fingers crossed. The best of the best are at site risking life and limb against all odds. All heroes. 

[Sheryl]

A vehicle involved in  the rescue effort just went off a cliff. 4 injured and taken to hospital. Sounds like at least one is serious. (From twitter feed site reports)

[holy cow cm]

If there is any addional death or deaths,  then then nincompoop who was too afraid to     go ahead when conditions were not raining and right should be ostracized from service. You don’t let a guy fly an airplane if he is not a trained pilot.  

[Sheryl]

5 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

If there is any addional death or deaths,  then then nincompoop who was too afraid to     go ahead when conditions were not raining and right should be ostracized from service. You don’t let a guy fly an airplane if he is not a trained pilot.  

The decision not to go ahead to date was based on the assessment of expert cave divers and onsite SEAL team (including doctor) that the boys were not ready yet to have a reasonable chance of making it. You really think the Command Post  should have overruled that assessment from a distance? I certainly wouldn't.

[Nigeone]

Don't think truthfully that they weren't going to try and get them out over the next few days and think they were just hanging on as long as possible to get as much water out as possible . Once the expected rains arrived that was the key to go for it.. Sadly a really tough decision as no right or wrong but so many unknowns. The best of the best are there though and the additional five British experts arriving was a giveaway that they were going to attempt the extraction . God bless all you guys and the trapped team. Next hours are critical and times that nobody really knows how's it will end up. 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Nigeone