UK watchdog and EU tell banks to prepare for hard Brexit

[CG1 Blue]

37 minutes ago, tebee said:

Nobody but nobody,  has been able to come up with a plan for exiting the European Union that can satisfy both a majority in Parliament and the expectant public. Why? Because fulfilling the false promises peddled  during the campaign is impossible.

 

There is no easy, prosperous, productive Brexit that the voters are impatiently expecting, and instead we have the grim, complicated cost of disentangling economies that have been intertwined for decades. This  has poisoned and paralyzed British politics. No one knows what to do.

 

The Conservatives cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party and wrecking their electoral chances for decades.

The fact that it has proved so difficult to depart is not a good reason for staying in.

[bristolboy]

16 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

The fact that it has proved so difficult to depart is not a good reason for staying in.

But the reasons why are.

[melvinmelvin]

32 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I have no idea what you're on about. Are most of these countries contiguous or close to the EU? 

And what does "getting by" even mean in the context of economics? This seems like data free nonsense. 

 

enjoy your limited vision

cheers

 

[tebee]

7 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

The fact that it has proved so difficult to depart is not a good reason for staying in.

It's not difficult to depart, we are in the middle of doing it now.

 

It is however, difficult to find a plan which lets us depart without wrecking the economy and throwing many people out of work and causing many businesses to close.

 

It might have been better to have worked out what the plan should be to avoid those pitfalls  first, before starting a leaving process with a time limit?

 

If no plan can be found is leaving such a good idea?

[tebee]

8 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

 

Don't you think "the EU" should have had a blueprint for exit  ?

 

 

After all, Article 50 was of their construction....

 

Article 50

• 
• 

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

 

 

The EU has offered blueprints.

 

Canada model

 

Norway model

 

Ukraine model

 

We have rejected all of them, wanting the benefits of the better ones without the responsibilities

 

It's all down to the UK

. 

[bristolboy]

7 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

enjoy your limited vision

cheers

 

Enjoy your pub crawl. Let's talk about this again when you're sober.

[dick dasterdly]

11 hours ago, tebee said:

Nobody but nobody,  has been able to come up with a plan for exiting the European Union that can satisfy both a majority in Parliament and the expectant public. Why? Because fulfilling the false promises peddled  during the campaign is impossible.

 

There is no easy, prosperous, productive Brexit that the voters are impatiently expecting, and instead we have the grim, complicated cost of disentangling economies that have been intertwined for decades. This  has poisoned and paralyzed British politics. No one knows what to do.

 

The Conservatives cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party and wrecking their electoral chances for decades.

Of course it's impossible to "come up with a plan for exiting the European Union that can satisfy both a majority in Parliament and the expectant public."!  The majority of MPs support the remain cause and the majority of the populace voted leave.

 

Consequently, we have had the brit. govt. acceding to the eu's negotiating agenda and failing to prepare for the possibility of genuinely leaving the eu....

 

"The Conservatives cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party and wrecking their electoral chances for decades.".

 

Are you suggesting that the electorate were deceived by the tories - even though they (as a party) supported remain and only a tiny number of MPs supported leave?

 

Let's not forget that it was the tory, chancellor of the exchequer, osborne who promised a punishment budget if the electorate voted leave! 

 

One of the best possible examples of the govt. attempting to deceive the electorate in the remain cause.  The other (of course) is the govt. leaflet sent to every household 'explaining' why they should vote remain....

[dick dasterdly]

15 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

The recent revival of Project Fear is helping to shift public opinion. Food rations and army intervention are the latest gems.

Remainer May is playing a blinder in her attempts to scare people off leaving the EU.

Not living in the uk, I've no idea whether or not this is true - but hope that the intransigence of the eu and the increasing ferocity of obvious project fear stories, is only serving to seriously annoy the voters!

 

It seems unlikely that anyone would genuinely believe the rabid 'No flights in or out of the uk for 2 months/food rations/army intervention' etc. etc. stories - not even the remainers.

 

[tebee]

33 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Of course it's impossible to "come up with a plan for exiting the European Union that can satisfy both a majority in Parliament and the expectant public."!  The majority of MPs support the remain cause and the majority of the populace voted leave.

 

 

But as leavers keep reminding us remainers " a large majority of MP voted to invoke article 50" which started the action of leaving the EU - presumably that means they now support leave in some form or another - would it not have been better to have decided what that form is first ? - brexit means brexit is meaningless if no one can articulate a view  that  a majority can agree upon.

 

33 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

....

 

"The Conservatives cannot admit to the electorate that they were deceived without splitting the party and wrecking their electoral chances for decades.".

 

Are you suggesting that the electorate were deceived by the tories - even though they (as a party) supported remain and only a tiny number of MPs supported leave?

 

The Tories decided to support the leave cause en masse post the referendum, they need to take responsibility for the mess  we are now in - they have certainly being deceiving the electorate as a party post-referendum. 

 

Pre-referendum it was possible for leave to espouse the impossible - we will have all the benefits of the single market  without any of the responsibilities - as they themselves did not expect to win. 

 

Post-referendum to espouse such policies to appeal to the populous is both mendasious and dangerous - the public have been primed to expect a pain free simple brexit. We now have a choice between the Brexits that are available in reality  One that is very painful, if simple, the other that leaves us very much in the same position we were before, gaining nothing, but losing a little.

 

The  Conservatives need to admit to the electorate that they were deceived and that the brexit that was promised is just not deliverable. They won't - for the reasons I already outlined - and because it would cause them to lose face. 

 

I must admit I don't know where we go from here - no one is going to be satisfied whatever happens.     

 

 

18 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Let's not forget that it was the tory, chancellor of the exchequer, osborne who promised a punishment budget if the electorate voted leave! 

One of the best possible examples of the govt. attempting to deceive the electorate in the remain cause.  The other (of course) is the govt. leaflet sent to every household 'explaining' why they should vote remain....

 

Well you should have voted remain ! Then we would not be in the mess we are now. 

Osborne was a P*ck - it's his previous budgets that were part of the cause of the leave vote. 

[dick dasterdly]

58 minutes ago, tebee said:

But as leavers keep reminding us remainers " a large majority of MP voted to invoke article 50" which started the action of leaving the EU - presumably that means they now support leave in some form or another - would it not have been better to have decided what that form is first ? - brexit means brexit is meaningless if no one can articulate a view  that  a majority can agree upon.

 

The Tories decided to support the leave cause en masse post the referendum, they need to take responsibility for the mess  we are now in - they have certainly being deceiving the electorate as a party post-referendum. 

 

Pre-referendum it was possible for leave to espouse the impossible - we will have all the benefits of the single market  without any of the responsibilities - as they themselves did not expect to win. 

 

Post-referendum to espouse such policies to appeal to the populous is both mendasious and dangerous - the public have been primed to expect a pain free simple brexit. We now have a choice between the Brexits that are available in reality  One that is very painful, if simple, the other that leaves us very much in the same position we were before, gaining nothing, but losing a little.

 

The  Conservatives need to admit to the electorate that they were deceived and that the brexit that was promised is just not deliverable. They won't - for the reasons I already outlined - and because it would cause them to lose face. 

 

I must admit I don't know where we go from here - no one is going to be satisfied whatever happens.     

 

 

Well you should have voted remain ! Then we would not be in the mess we are now. 

Osborne was a P*ck - it's his previous budgets that were part of the cause of the leave vote. 

And this is a perfect example of why it is such hard work trying to respond to some posters - who prefer to 'answer' the points they would prefer to have been raised - rather than those actually raised.... ☹️

 

So you agree that the tories were pro-remain prior to the referendum?

 

You also agree that MPs had to change their attitude as a result of the referendum - as they had the sense to realise that not making any pretense at supporting the referendum result was likely to lead to their annihilation at the next GE?

 

You also agree that the tory govt. were responsible for the most deception - e.g. osborne's promised punishment budget?

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[tebee]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

And this is a perfect example of why it is such hard work trying to respond to some posters - who prefer to 'answer' the points they would prefer to have been raised - rather than those actually raised.... ☹️

 

So you agree that the tories were pro-remain prior to the referendum?

 

You also agree that MPs had to change their attitude as a result of the referendum - as they had the sense to realise that not making any pretense at supporting the referendum result was likely to lead to their annihilation at the next GE?

 

You also agree that the tory govt. were responsible for the most deception - e.g. osborne's promised punishment budget?

 

 

 

I can't help it if you keep asking the wrong questions ! ?

 

Pre-referendum the Tory party was split - a majority of MP were remain, a majority of party members were leave.  

 

I don't  agree that MPs had to change their attitude as a result of the referendum,  even from a political expediency standpoint, what about those MPs in majority remain constituencies? But post-referendum they did almost all support leave.

 

Yes indeed-  the tory govt. were responsible for the most deception - both before and after the ref. As for Osborne's promised punishment budget?  who knows - he might have delivered it if he had remained chancellor - it might even have been a suicide note to make him unviable in a leave supporting tory government. 

[stephenterry]

Dick D. The Brexiteers won the referendum. It's no good blaming the Remainers, or the EU, or the UK government  or parliamentary MPs if the withdrawal terms currently being negotiated are not to your liking.

 

You want to leave the EU, it would be on their terms, not yours. Live with it.

 

 

[CG1 Blue]

5 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

Not living in the uk, I've no idea whether or not this is true - but hope that the intransigence of the eu and the increasing ferocity of obvious project fear stories, is only serving to seriously annoy the voters!

 

It seems unlikely that anyone would genuinely believe the rabid 'No flights in or out of the uk for 2 months/food rations/army intervention' etc. etc. stories - not even the remainers.

 

Unfortunately the Remain propaganda machine's persistence seems to be paying off. Over the last couple of days I've heard two respectable radio presenters who are usually very balanced admit they are seriously starting to worry now, since the food rationing and army intervention has been put out there.

 

I heard a few members of the public calling in to LBC saying they voted Leave and now they wish they hadn’t, because they didn’t know we’d face a food shortage and run out of medicines.

The funniest caller was one who pretended he was a Leave voter who has now changed his mind. He made some quite intelligent remarks, and put forward a decent argument.

But when challenged on why he voted Leave he said “I voted leave because of what was on the big red bus”. Hilarious!?

 

Businesses will always work out a way to do business. On 29th March 2019 food will still be imported/exported, and planes will still fly. This fear mongering is Y2K all over again!

 

 

[whatsupdoc]

7 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Unfortunately the Remain propaganda machine's persistence seems to be paying off. Over the last couple of days I've heard two respectable radio presenters who are usually very balanced admit they are seriously starting to worry now, since the food rationing and army intervention has been put out there.

 

I heard a few members of the public calling in to LBC saying they voted Leave and now they wish they hadn’t, because they didn’t know we’d face a food shortage and run out of medicines.

The funniest caller was one who pretended he was a Leave voter who has now changed his mind. He made some quite intelligent remarks, and put forward a decent argument.

But when challenged on why he voted Leave he said “I voted leave because of what was on the big red bus”. Hilarious!?

 

Businesses will always work out a way to do business. On 29th March 2019 food will still be imported/exported, and planes will still fly. This fear mongering is Y2K all over again!

 

 

You are absolutely right: On 29th March 2019 food will still be imported/exported, and planes will still fly.

It is more a question what will be the situation on the 30th....

 

And I agree that it is unlikely, but in case the politicians do not make agreements in time, there is not much businesses can do....

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I heard a few members of the public calling in to LBC saying they voted Leave and now they wish they hadn’t, because they didn’t know we’d face a food shortage and run out of medicines.

If there will be food and medicine shortages after Brexit, those are just minuscule and solvable issue compared to the other problems, which have longer term effects. 

 

Companies from UK are unable to do business with the EU nation companies and vice versa. UK also does not have trade deal with the rest of the world, which will be a bit of a problem during global economies. 

 

Car manufacturing in UK will slow down as there is no parts coming to the factories. How will the banks and financial sector work after separation from EU systems? What are rules of traveling between UK and EU? .. jada jada jada...

 

All of these things were supposed to get done during this 2 year Brexit period. Has the work really even started in the UK?

 

The question is. Will UK Brexit ready by March 30th? 

 

If the Brexiters think it is going to be, then I guess everything is fine. Go ahead and separate yourselves from the EU. Best of luck as well. 

[CG1 Blue]

7 minutes ago, oilinki said:

If there will be food and medicine shortages after Brexit, those are just minuscule and solvable issue compared to the other problems, which have longer term effects. 

 

Companies from UK are unable to do business with the EU nation companies and vice versa. UK also does not have trade deal with the rest of the world, which will be a bit of a problem during global economies. 

 

Car manufacturing in UK will slow down as there is no parts coming to the factories. How will the banks and financial sector work after separation from EU systems? What are rules of traveling between UK and EU? .. jada jada jada...

 

All of these things were supposed to get done during this 2 year Brexit period. Has the work really even started in the UK?

 

The question is. Will UK Brexit ready by March 30th? 

 

If the Brexiters think it is going to be, then I guess everything is fine. Go ahead and separate yourselves from the EU. Best of luck as well. 

These things are all solvable, and will be solved. Even with a no deal outcome it won't take long to fix all these things.  Where there's a will there's a way, and businesses (UK + EU) won't want to stop trading.

My guess though is that a deadline extension will be sought.

 

My fear is that May is attempting to frighten the public into a 2nd vote to Remain.  To me that would be a real dirty trick. Even worse than the big red bus and the emergency budget / WWIII / back of the queue stuff.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

These things are all solvable, and will be solved. Even with a no deal outcome it won't take long to fix all these things.  Where there's a will there's a way, and businesses (UK + EU) won't want to stop trading.

My guess though is that a deadline extension will be sought.

All issues are solvable. UK has Commonwealth as a backup plan. Even if it might not have the similar power over the colonies, it used to have. 

 

If time runs out and UK is forced to do fast deals with countries around the world, without the backing of greater EU economy, there is a real possibility that those deals will not be as good as those could be. 

 

If UK asks for extension of the deadline, what EU will demand in return to agree to UK's wishes? 

 

It's not beneficial to either party to have UK as a hang around member without a clear direction where it wishes to go. 

 

Brexit has become a lot of talk, but no real action or even vision of the future. Reminds me a lot of one orangutang in a faraway country.

[CG1 Blue]

49 minutes ago, oilinki said:

All issues are solvable. UK has Commonwealth as a backup plan. Even if it might not have the similar power over the colonies, it used to have. 

 

If time runs out and UK is forced to do fast deals with countries around the world, without the backing of greater EU economy, there is a real possibility that those deals will not be as good as those could be. 

 

If UK asks for extension of the deadline, what EU will demand in return to agree to UK's wishes? 

 

It's not beneficial to either party to have UK as a hang around member without a clear direction where it wishes to go. 

 

Brexit has become a lot of talk, but no real action or even vision of the future. Reminds me a lot of one orangutang in a faraway country.

Let's not forget if there is no deal, the EU waves goodbye to at least £39bn of funding. 

 

They will find a way.

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Let's not forget if there is no deal, the EU waves goodbye to at least £39bn of funding. 

 

They will find a way.

I believe it's 39 billion over 45 years. I believe for the first 2 years it will be about 16 billion. After that the pace of payment slows up a lot. 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Let's not forget if there is no deal, the EU waves goodbye to at least £39bn of funding. 

 

They will find a way.

That's in a ballpark of €100 per EU citizen. I'm sure each of us has have nights, when we have spend more money than that. 

 

Then again. EU is not going to let UK to skip it's earlier agreed science etc. development costs.  So even if there is no deal, UK must have to pay it's agreed debts to the EU.

 

Otherwise. Well, I'm sure EU will have quite a few things to say, but let's start with Galileo, which is European GPS system. Even if UK becomes a Norway style member, who knows if EU will let UK to use the system anymore. Sorry, you are out when Brexit is Brexit.

[vogie]

8 minutes ago, oilinki said:

That's in a ballpark of €100 per EU citizen. I'm sure each of us has have nights, when we have spend more money than that. 

 

Then again. EU is not going to let UK to skip it's earlier agreed science etc. development costs.  So even if there is no deal, UK must have to pay it's agreed debts to the EU.

 

Otherwise. Well, I'm sure EU will have quite a few things to say, but let's start with Galileo, which is European GPS system. Even if UK becomes a Norway style member, who knows if EU will let UK to use the system anymore. Sorry, you are out when Brexit is Brexit.

It is extremely kind of you to continually keep giving us all this good advice, but honestly, we still want to leave, maybe we'll bump into to each other after we've left, you never know.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, vogie said:

It is extremely kind of you to continually keep giving us all this good advice, but honestly, we still want to leave, maybe we'll bump into to each other after we've left, you never know.

You are most welcome. 

 

However it's rather unlikely we would bump to each other after the Brexit, even after we would agree to meet somewhere. After all, you don't have the navigational tools anymore to find where you are supposed to go.

[whatsupdoc]

9 minutes ago, oilinki said:

That's in a ballpark of €100 per EU citizen. I'm sure each of us has have nights, when we have spend more money than that. 

 

Then again. EU is not going to let UK to skip it's earlier agreed science etc. development costs.  So even if there is no deal, UK must have to pay it's agreed debts to the EU.

 

Otherwise. Well, I'm sure EU will have quite a few things to say, but let's start with Galileo, which is European GPS system. Even if UK becomes a Norway style member, who knows if EU will let UK to use the system anymore. Sorry, you are out when Brexit is Brexit.

I think the EU will be more than willing to make agreements about Galileo and security cooperation, even in the absence of a trade deal.

However, failure to honor the obligations of the 'divorce bill' will have dire consequences. Not only towards the relationship with the EU but also for other potential trade deals, credit rating and maybe a lot more. Probably not a very wise move.

[CG1 Blue]

26 minutes ago, oilinki said:

That's in a ballpark of €100 per EU citizen. I'm sure each of us has have nights, when we have spend more money than that. 

 

Then again. EU is not going to let UK to skip it's earlier agreed science etc. development costs.  So even if there is no deal, UK must have to pay it's agreed debts to the EU.

 

Otherwise. Well, I'm sure EU will have quite a few things to say, but let's start with Galileo, which is European GPS system. Even if UK becomes a Norway style member, who knows if EU will let UK to use the system anymore. Sorry, you are out when Brexit is Brexit.

You think the EU doesn't need that funding?  They're not going to ask each EU citizen to cough up €100.

 

The EU owes the UK for all the infrastructure we have paid for. We have some minor obligations until the end of the current EU budget, but that's it. Net/net we are probably quits already.

 

And as for Galileo, it is a disgrace they talked about excluding the UK after all the work British scientists have contributed, and after more than €1bn of British tax payers money. Yet another reason to walk away from these unreasonable people.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2018 by CG1 Blue

[stephenterry]

2 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You think the EU doesn't need that funding?  They're not going to ask each EU citizen to cough up €100.

 

And as for Galileo, it is a disgrace they talk about excluding the UK after all the work British scientists have contributed, and after more than €1bn of British tax payers money.

 

 

You voted leave. Live with the consequences instead of complaining non-stop. 

[CG1 Blue]

9 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

I think the EU will be more than willing to make agreements about Galileo and security cooperation, even in the absence of a trade deal.

However, failure to honor the obligations of the 'divorce bill' will have dire consequences. Not only towards the relationship with the EU but also for other potential trade deals, credit rating and maybe a lot more. Probably not a very wise move.

The £39bn divorce bill is not our obligation.  That is supposed to be a deal sweetener.

 

We will meet our obligations of course (EU budget contribution for the current cycle, less what we are owed), but that will be a much smaller number.

[vogie]

15 minutes ago, oilinki said:

You are most welcome. 

 

However it's rather unlikely we would bump to each other after the Brexit, even after we would agree to meet somewhere. After all, you don't have the navigational tools anymore to find where you are supposed to go.

My military training will come in handy then, we didn't have GPS in the military, we had map and compass. And just to put the remainers minds at rest with the inevitable food shortages, there is nothing wrong with military composite rations, it even comes with its own tin opener and hexamine stove should the Russians turn our gas off, one word of warning though try to avoid the chicken supreme, it's rank.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

The £39bn divorce bill is not our obligation.  That is supposed to be a deal sweetener.

 

We will meet our obligations of course (EU budget contribution for the current cycle, less what we are owed), but that will be a much smaller number.

No the €50B your obligation, which has to be paid regardless what kind of deal UK is seeking with the EU.

 

That's part of the deal, in case UK really exists the EU. 

 

Now that we all are more aware of the real life consciousness, Brexit seems to be less and less likely to happen. 

 

If Brexit happens, I'm really sorry for the people of UK.  Even for the most stubborn ones who kept on yelling 'Freedom, Freedom'

 

 

 

 

[whatsupdoc]

9 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

You think the EU doesn't need that funding?  They're not going to ask each EU citizen to cough up €100.

 

The EU owes the UK for all the infrastructure we have paid for. We have some minor obligations until the end of the current EU budget, but that's it. Net/net we are probably quits already.

 

And as for Galileo, it is a disgrace they talked about excluding the UK after all the work British scientists have contributed, and after more than €1bn of British tax payers money. Yet another reason to walk away from these unreasonable people.

 

 

I could be wrong, but wasn't it the UK that insisted on strict rules that Galileo access was off-limits for third countries?? If so, not that unreasonable after all.... Choices & consequences.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, vogie said:

My military training will come in handy then, we didn't have GPS in the military, we had map and compass. And just to put the remainers minds at rest with the inevitable food shortages, there is nothing wrong with military composite rations, it even comes with its own tin opener and hexamine stove should the Russians turn our gas off, one word of warning though try to avoid the chicken supreme, it's rank.

During my military training, we neither had GPS to tell us where to go. We also learned how to adapt to the ambient situation, like we learned that the best tactics are not go head to head against the enemy or something we might irrationally fear to be the enemy. 

 

Then again, at that time, it was just a fun game and play for us young boys.