UK watchdog and EU tell banks to prepare for hard Brexit

[CG1 Blue]

55 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

That's the Telegraph quote not mine - however, your post makes sense profit wise - maybe it's an opportunity cost loss in not being able to do whatever they do. Whatever, it's a significant amount that justifies planning for alternative locations.

But is it worth it if it means they lose huge defence contracts in retaliation?  I'm pretty sure that would drive them into administration.

Yes by all means lobby the government and push for the right deal to protect profits, but publicly threatening job losses is a dirty trick.

Edited August 1, 2018 by CG1 Blue

[CG1 Blue]

20 minutes ago, aright said:

I agree , I think we have left Project Fear and we are now in Project Superfear.

 

What are the practicalities of moving.

They would need a new factory in any one of 27 countries at significant cost. This would be highly desirable to all member states and I imagine the infighting would be horrendous although I would have thought Germany or France would get it.

They would need to find and train 13000 employees in carbon fibre composite wing technology, Airbus UK have 20 years experience under their belt

Production lines would need to be moved overseas.

Airbus would need to make redundancy payments up to 13000 employees.

Time frame? 3-5 years and that's a total guess on my part.

This move takes place when Airbus still need to produce wings and while some current employees will resign immediately and the rest of the work force have a  dormant, passive attitude as a result of them loosing their jobs.

 

I can't see it being practical.

 

 

 

 

 

Spot on.  It's never going to happen and they know it.

[whatsupdoc]

Spot on.  It's never going to happen and they know it.

Never? Wouldn’t be so sure. It might take a while but in the meantime any new investment will not be in the UK.


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[CG1 Blue]

25 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

Never? Wouldn’t be so sure. It might take a while but in the meantime any new investment will not be in the UK.


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If so they will lose out to Boeing. I don't think they want that.

[aright]

26 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

Never? Wouldn’t be so sure. It might take a while but in the meantime any new investment will not be in the UK.
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History isn't on your side. Twenty years ago Nissan and other car companies said if we didn't join the euro they would have to consider leaving the UK.

Businesses like politicians don't always do what they say.

Airbus are just lobbying for their interests ……...I understand that.

As for investment, carbon fibre technology was invented in the UK in 1963 we are a world leader. If they don't invest in Broughton, money invested elsewhere will be an attempt at catch up technology...…...Where's the profitability in that ?

 

 

[candide]

22 minutes ago, aright said:

History isn't on your side. Twenty years ago Nissan and other car companies said if we didn't join the euro they would have to consider leaving the UK.

Businesses like politicians don't always do what they say.

Airbus are just lobbying for their interests ……...I understand that.

As for investment, carbon fibre technology was invented in the UK in 1963 we are a world leader. If they don't invest in Broughton, money invested elsewhere will be an attempt at catch up technology...…...Where's the profitability in that ?

 

 

Ahem...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/380543/production-capacity-of-top-carbon-fiber-manufacturers/

 

[Orac]

History isn't on your side. Twenty years ago Nissan and other car companies said if we didn't join the euro they would have to consider leaving the UK.
Businesses like politicians don't always do what they say.
Airbus are just lobbying for their interests ……...I understand that.
As for investment, carbon fibre technology was invented in the UK in 1963 we are a world leader. If they don't invest in Broughton, money invested elsewhere will be an attempt at catch up technology...…...Where's the profitability in that ?
 
 

Ironically one of the companies that did move the rest of its manufacturing overseas is now one of Brexits biggest cheerleaders.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/nov/05/theobserver.observerbusiness4


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[whatsupdoc]

35 minutes ago, aright said:

History isn't on your side. Twenty years ago Nissan and other car companies said if we didn't join the euro they would have to consider leaving the UK.

Businesses like politicians don't always do what they say.

Airbus are just lobbying for their interests ……...I understand that.

As for investment, carbon fibre technology was invented in the UK in 1963 we are a world leader. If they don't invest in Broughton, money invested elsewhere will be an attempt at catch up technology...…...Where's the profitability in that ?

 

 

It will depend on the margins. If the product is no longer competitive when produced in the UK, why would those factories stay open? Nissan is not going to produce cars in the UK if they cannot sell them at a reasonable profit.

 

Technology and machinery can be moved to another country, so can staff (for the right incentive).

[aright]

22 minutes ago, candide said:

Ahem...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/380543/production-capacity-of-top-carbon-fiber-manufacturers/

 

I can't read your link..I don't have an account. From your link however it seems to refer to cf manufacturers. I don't think Airbus make cf composites they buy them in and use them using their own in house technology. Their success is as a result of using the material in a specialist way to produce a flexible light weight wing. 

[candide]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

I can't read your link..I don't have an account. From your link however it seems to refer to cf manufacturers. I don't think Airbus make cf composites they buy them in and use them using their own in house technology. Their success is as a result of using the material in a specialist way to produce a flexible light weight wing. 

You are probably right. I was just being nasty.

[aright]

36 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Ironically one of the companies that did move the rest of its manufacturing overseas is now one of Brexits biggest cheerleaders.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/nov/05/theobserver.observerbusiness4


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Good point

[aright]

Just now, candide said:

You are probably right. I was just being nasty.

Thanks. I have marked your card?

[aright]

11 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

It will depend on the margins. If the product is no longer competitive when produced in the UK, why would those factories stay open? Nissan is not going to produce cars in the UK if they cannot sell them at a reasonable profit.

 

Technology and machinery can be moved to another country, so can staff (for the right incentive).

"If the product is no longer competitive"

That's the whole point can you name a European wing manufacturer who is more competitive. How long do you think it would take and at what cost, would Airbus need to find a more competitive wing manufacturer.

 

Technology and machinery can be moved to another country, so can staff (for the right incentive).

And what guarantees would they have at the outset they would be more competitive; the experience and technology is exclusive to Broughton.  

 

[tomacht8]

3 minutes ago, aright said:

"If the product is no longer competitive"

That's the whole point can you name a European wing manufacturer who is more competitive. How long do you think it would take and at what cost, would Airbus need to find a more competitive wing manufacturer.

 

Technology and machinery can be moved to another country, so can staff (for the right incentive).

And what guarantees would they have at the outset they would be more competitive; the experience and technology is exclusive to Broughton.  

 

The Airbus Operations GmbH in Stade (Germany) is a specialist in the production of components made of carbon fiber reinforced plastics, CFRP. The Stade plant, with more than 1,800 employees within the Airbus Group, specializes in the manufacture and further development of CFRP technology in the aerospace industry.
Stade produces vertical stabilizers for the entire Airbus fleet, for the A320 and A330 family including the NEO versions up to the A380. On the A350 XWB, Stade will be installing the vertical stabilizer, producing upper wing shells, upper and lower hull shells of section 18/19.

If Airbus wants to relocate productions, they can do it.
The whole thing will take years, is just a strategic decision.
In Stade they could initially build up first the production for one wing type in parallel.
Then, over time, they could shift production numbers.

And, of course, at the old location, they could melt off the workforce through early retirement offers, normal retirement and moving offers.
 

[whatsupdoc]

5 minutes ago, aright said:

"If the product is no longer competitive"

That's the whole point can you name a European wing manufacturer who is more competitive. How long do you think it would take and at what cost, would Airbus need to find a more competitive wing manufacturer.

 

Technology and machinery can be moved to another country, so can staff (for the right incentive).

And what guarantees would they have at the outset they would be more competitive; the experience and technology is exclusive to Broughton.  

 

To my understanding this factory is owned by Airbus so if they want to they can relocate or set up an alternative location and slowly move production there. Sure it would be costly but in the longer run it could still make sense.

 

 

[aright]

 

18 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

If Airbus wants to relocate productions, they can do it.
The whole thing will take years, is just a strategic decision.
In Stade they could initially build up first the production for one wing type in parallel.
Then, over time, they could shift production numbers.

And, of course, at the old location, they could melt off the workforce through early retirement offers, normal retirement and moving offers.
 

 

15 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

To my understanding this factory is owned by Airbus so if they want to they can relocate or set up an alternative location and slowly move production there. Sure it would be costly but in the longer run it could still make sense.

 

 

 

The business plan would require demonstration that a move would have financial advantage over the cost and aggravation of a move. I agree Airbus can make a change if they want to but they are accountable to shareholders What solid ( not conjecture) financial pluses, and what are Broughton doing wrong right now that makes you feel it would make sense in the longer run to make a move.?   

[bristolboy]

 

4 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

But is it worth it if it means they lose huge defence contracts in retaliation?  I'm pretty sure that would drive them into administration.

Yes by all means lobby the government and push for the right deal to protect profits, but publicly threatening job losses is a dirty trick.

"I'm pretty sure that would drive them into administration."

I'm pretty sure your analysis, such as it is, takes no account of what percentage of Airbus' business is defense related, and of that share, what percentage of its sales go to the UK.

Edited August 1, 2018 by bristolboy

[CG1 Blue]

36 minutes ago, aright said:

 

 

 

The business plan would require demonstration that a move would have financial advantage over the cost and aggravation of a move. I agree Airbus can make a change if they want to but they are accountable to shareholders What solid ( not conjecture) financial pluses, and what are Broughton doing wrong right now that makes you feel it would make sense in the longer run to make a move.?   

But if Airbus say they're going to move production from Broughton, they might scare a few hundred more people into wanting to remain in the EU. That's the real end game here.

[CG1 Blue]

4 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

 

"I'm pretty sure that would drive them into administration."

I'm pretty sure your analysis, such as it is, takes no account of what percentage of Airbus' business is defense related, and of that share, what percentage of it's sales go to the UK.

I read that without British support the company wouldn't have been able to cover their budget overruns on the A400m transporter aircraft. Maybe my comment was a bit OTT, but it is a material threat to them.

[tomacht8]

48 minutes ago, aright said:

 

 

 

The business plan would require demonstration that a move would have financial advantage over the cost and aggravation of a move. I agree Airbus can make a change if they want to but they are accountable to shareholders What solid ( not conjecture) financial pluses, and what are Broughton doing wrong right now that makes you feel it would make sense in the longer run to make a move.?   

BREXIT – Risk Assessment 
Here is the risk analysis of Airbus regarding Brexit.
It's clear that huge losses can be made on the company, at 100% just in time production in many networked locations.
The penalties for late delivery are huge.

 

https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/channel-specific/website-/company/global-presence/uk/Brexit-Risk-Assessment-21-Jun-FINAL.pdf

 

[Grouse]

7 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Airbus are sounding off in the hope we'll change our minds and stay in the EU.  Boeing are just cracking on and looking forward.

Thankfully we already called Airbus' bluff when ministers warned them they could lose massive defence contracts if they pull out of the UK.

 

And we still give huge contracts to the Americans for their aircraft. Doesn't matter what Delta Tango does, we still buy their kit. We should continue to build superior equipment in Europe. Boeing is way behind Airbus.

[welovesundaysatspace]

17 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

 scare a few hundred more people into wanting to remain in the EU. That's the real end game here.

Sure, “the real end game” of a multi-billion listed multinational is to scare a few hundred people. That’s so obvious nonsense, it’s amazing you still post it. 

[CG1 Blue]

2 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

24 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

scare a few hundred more people into wanting to remain in the EU. That's the real end game here.

Sure, “the real end game” of a multi-billion listed multinational is to scare a few hundred people. That’s so obvious nonsense, it’s amazing you still post it. 

No, the end game is to keep the UK in the EU.  Read slower and you might understand things better.

[nontabury]

4 hours ago, aright said:

I agree , I think we have left Project Fear and we are now in Project Superfear.

 

What are the practicalities of moving.

They would need a new factory in any one of 27 countries at significant cost. This would be highly desirable to all member states and I imagine the infighting would be horrendous although I would have thought Germany or France would get it.

They would need to find and train 13000 employees in carbon fibre composite wing technology, Airbus UK have 20 years experience under their belt

Production lines would need to be moved overseas.

Airbus would need to make redundancy payments up to 13000 employees.

Time frame? 3-5 years and that's a total guess on my part.

This move takes place when Airbus still need to produce wings and while some current employees will resign immediately and the rest of the work force have a  dormant, passive attitude as a result of them loosing their jobs.

 

I can't see it being practical.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 All these remainers, afraid of what will occur next March. Do they not remember

—-

 

[welovesundaysatspace]

7 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

No, the end game is to keep the UK in the EU.  Read slower and you might understand things better.

Doesn’t make any more sense. 

[aright]

8 minutes ago, Grouse said:

And we still give huge contracts to the Americans for their aircraft. Doesn't matter what Delta Tango does, we still buy their kit. We should continue to build superior equipment in Europe. Boeing is way behind Airbus.

There are so many categories of comparison when asked the question who makes the better plane I don't think you could ever reach a conclusion. I think both manufacturers are worthy of long term share purchase. You would have the same problem if asked the question who makes the better car Mercedes or BMW?

Both plane manufacturers however have the same ups and downs...………...boom boom  ?

[Grouse]

Many of the contributors here have been involved with business at least at some point in their career. I think we can all agree that being successful in business is hard. Hard for all stakeholders. Business is NOT easy. Yet we are going out of our way to make things more difficult. That is just asinine.

 

There are many competitors who are just waiting to eat our lunch. Why make it even 1% easier for them?

 

I suspect that many here just don't get it. They've been salaried or at least paid but don't REALLY understand where the money comes from.

 

We should drop this Brexit nonsense immediately. To hell with the consequences.

[stephenterry]

12 hours ago, Grouse said:

Many of the contributors here have been involved with business at least at some point in their career. I think we can all agree that being successful in business is hard. Hard for all stakeholders. Business is NOT easy. Yet we are going out of our way to make things more difficult. That is just asinine.

 

There are many competitors who are just waiting to eat our lunch. Why make it even 1% easier for them?

 

I suspect that many here just don't get it. They've been salaried or at least paid but don't REALLY understand where the money comes from.

 

We should drop this Brexit nonsense immediately. To hell with the consequences.

I agree. However, I am bloody-minded enough let the Brexiteers reap what they voted for, and for which May is determined to achieve even if a no-deal withdrawal bankrupts the UK economy, plunges the pound, and renegades on Ireland.

 

And now she's seeking a face-saving 'blind Brexit' with Germany and France in which most of the key issues are not resolved before 29 March 2019, but are held over in a transition period.

 

Even worse news is that Boris has been installed as favourite to become the next leader of the conservative party. 

With him and Corbyn to choose from, God help us all.

 

 

[aright]

10 hours ago, stephenterry said:

I agree. However, I am bloody-minded enough let the Brexiteers reap what they voted for, and for which May is determined to achieve even if a no-deal withdrawal bankrupts the UK economy, plunges the pound, and renegades on Ireland.

 

And now she's seeking a face-saving 'blind Brexit' with Germany and France in which most of the key issues are not resolved before 29 March 2019, but are held over in a transition period.

 

Even worse news is that Boris has been installed as favourite to become the next leader of the conservative party. 

With him and Corbyn to choose from, God help us all.

 

 

I am bloody-minded enough let the Brexiteers reap what they voted for, and for which May is determined to achieve even if a no-deal withdrawal bankrupts the UK economy, plunges the pound, and renegades on Ireland.

 

Translation:  I hope Brexit bankrupts the UK economy, decimates sterling and renegades reneges on Ireland because that what you morons who voted for it deserve. I know best.

Some Remainers and endorsers of this feeling have morphed into "Gloating, Spiteful, Remainers" with no respect for the UK or the 48% who voted remain.

It's all about point scoring. 

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, aright said:

I am bloody-minded enough let the Brexiteers reap what they voted for, and for which May is determined to achieve even if a no-deal withdrawal bankrupts the UK economy, plunges the pound, and renegades on Ireland.

 

Translation:  I hope Brexit bankrupts the UK economy, decimates sterling and renegades reneges on Ireland because that what you morons who voted for it deserve. I know best.

Some Remainers and endorsers of this feeling have morphed into "Gloating, Spiteful, Remainers" with no respect for the UK or the 48% who voted remain.

It's all about point scoring. 

Congratulations on your mind reading act.

Here''s mine reading yours:

If a hard Brexit happens, I can point at and blame those who hoped for disaster for bringing it about. And hope know one notices that what I'm really invoking is a negative Tinkerbell effect.