UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[aright]

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

 

Apparently she has an internet obtained ordination from one of the odd strange churches in the US - so not what you or I would call a vicar. Maybe it was very hard to find CofE vicar who supported Brexit, but it does seem a very strange choice. BBC is saying she was there in her role as vicar rather than as an actress playing a vicar.

 

Does not inspire confidence.

 

That's the weirdest story I've read in a long time. I watched her along with a few other odd balls being interviewed about Brexit ... they were all a bit strange. But the dodgy vicar was the strangest of all ... I couldn't work out if it's a man or a woman or some hybrid? 

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, bomber said:

Yes they can,leave voters seem to think within a year or two thinks will start getting better,imo the damage wont hits its peak until about 4-6 years after as this will be when the big companies have sorted out their new locations and will of left,add on the damage from 4+ years of a weaker currency/lower GDP/lower house prices/inflation etc and it makes sense.This is a 6-10 year hit at least,be prepared and expect sub 38bt for the Great British pound for many years.

Like a slow puncture ... at first, but once Corbyn gets on board the deterioration will accelerate.

[vinny41]

The Bank of England’s Brexit forecasts aren’t just wrong. They’re absurd

https://capx.co/the-bank-of-englands-brexit-forecasts-arent-just-wrong-theyre-absurd/

[AlexRich]

4 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The Bank of England’s Brexit forecasts aren’t just wrong. They’re absurd

https://capx.co/the-bank-of-englands-brexit-forecasts-arent-just-wrong-theyre-absurd/

 

Andrew Lilico, a prominent Brexit supporter. They were not forecasts, merely scenarios. 

[vinny41]

14 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

Andrew Lilico, a prominent Brexit supporter. They were not forecasts, merely scenarios. 

Standard response from remainers on this forum  example @damascase would be Of course, if you don’t like the message, attack the messenger............ or Again and again: the messenger and not the message.......,,,

[bomber]

58 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

It does seem you main concern is the Sterling to Thai BHT as you have mentioned it a number of times

i rarely visit thailand these days compared to 8-15 years ago,so no the sterling to thai rate is not an issue,that has been well knackered for the last 5-6 years well before brexit,the ex rate will be of interest in 2-3 years when i retire but it will be to Portugal,luckily brexit affects me very little hence i didnt even vote but after seen the carnage i certainly would be if there is another. 

[bomber]

47 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

Like a slow puncture ... at first, but once Corbyn gets on board the deterioration will accelerate.

correct,the mother of all double whammys,businesses/markets etc are just starting fear his arrival before we have even left the EU,anyone who thinks he can repair brexit needs help,its the worst possible scenario and its as good as a done deal.

[melvinmelvin]

9 hours ago, AlexRich said:

Water and railways for sure, swiftly followed by electricity and gas supply. Then he’ll appropriate 10% of listed companies, ostensibly to give to employees, but not really. When the car companies leave he might also launch Corbynista, the new UK brand of car, using the disused factories. And relaunch Pravda UK, before signing a historic free trade deal with Venezuela.

when it comes to electricity,

I assume that it is a competitive market with several players today and not a private monopoly

 

and that retail prices vary throughout the UK?

[melvinmelvin]

 

just saw in Swedish MSM dn.se

 

that immigration from EU to the UK is going down quite a  lot,

it is now at its nadir over the past 6-7 years

 

however, overall immigration numbers are fairly stable, Asians making up for the loss in Europeans

 

Why?

* uncertainty about the status of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit

* ain't no fun being paid in pound sterling anymore

 

[bomber]

4 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

when it comes to electricity,

I assume that it is a competitive market with several players today and not a private monopoly

 

and that retail prices vary throughout the UK?

will he cut petrol prices to venezuela prices in honour of his fellow now deceased commie mate hugo chavez,now there's a good vote winner,iam sure many will believe him.

[melvinmelvin]

47 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Standard response from remainers on this forum  example @damascase would be Of course, if you don’t like the message, attack the messenger............ or Again and again: the messenger and not the message.......,,,

 

maybe there are too many messengers around and too few messages

 

 

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Standard response from remainers on this forum  example @damascase would be Of course, if you don’t like the message, attack the messenger............ or Again and again: the messenger and not the message.......,,,

Firstly, it's not a forecast, so the title is misleading. And the author is not unbiased, which is important to know. 

[AlexRich]

22 minutes ago, bomber said:

will he cut petrol prices to venezuela prices in honour of his fellow now deceased commie mate hugo chavez,now there's a good vote winner,iam sure many will believe him.

You'll need to buy a large wheelbarrow, to carry the notes you'll need to buy a pint of milk.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

It does seem you main concern is the Sterling to Thai BHT as you have mentioned it a number of times

....whereas the Brexiteers on a Thai expat forum would rather the issue go away. Or maybe they are wintering in Cleethorpes anyway.

[vinny41]

Economist Who Won Nobel Prize for Trade Theory Sceptical of ..carney's forecasts

 

Paul Krugman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on trade theory, seems the kind of person who might have a credible view on the various scenarios depicted by the very political Mark Carney’s report to the Treasury Committee. Krugman made some points on Twitter last night;

• The Bank of England just released some very dire scenarios.
• But their bad-case losses from a no-deal Brexit look extremely high. I mean, 8% of GDP was the kind of estimate we used to make for countries with 150 percent effective rates of protection.
• I don’t understand how you can get that kind of cost without making some big ad hoc assumptions about productivity or something. And I have worried in all this about motivated reasoning on the part of people who oppose Brexit for the best of reasons.
• As best I can tell, the big results depend on assumed relations between trade/FDI flows and productivity. It’s really important to understand that this channel does not follow from basic trade theory and comparative advantage; it’s a black-box story.
• What we have are correlations between trade and investment flows and productivity that don’t really follow from standard models. Are these causal? There is surely room for skepticism. Yet that seems to be the big driver of the whole thing. So I’m worried.
• Again, I’m anti-Brexit, and have no doubt that it will make Britain poorer. And the BoE could be right about the magnitude. But they’ve really gone pretty far out on a limb here.

.

[StreetCowboy]

5 hours ago, bomber said:

Yes they can,leave voters seem to think within a year or two thinks will start getting better,imo the damage wont hits its peak until about 4-6 years after as this will be when the big companies have sorted out their new locations and will of left,add on the damage from 4+ years of a weaker currency/lower GDP/lower house prices/inflation etc and it makes sense.This is a 6-10 year hit at least,be prepared and expect sub 38bt for the Great British pound for many years.

Exactly.  You and I might not live to see the benefits, but our children, or our children's children, might have brighter days to look forward to.  It will be better for our children's children, who will have never known prosperity and peace.

[SheungWan]

38 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Economist Who Won Nobel Prize for Trade Theory Sceptical of ..carney's forecasts

 

Krugman: "I'm anti-Brexit and have no doubt it will make Britain poorer". So the argument here is about the degree of the bad case scenario. 

[SheungWan]

20 minutes ago, StreetCowboy said:

Exactly.  You and I might not live to see the benefits, but our children, or our children's children, might have brighter days to look forward to.  It will be better for our children's children, who will have never known prosperity and peace.

Loose translation: Brexit is going to be rubbish for years, but pie in the sky somewhere down the road.

[vogie]

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

Loose translation: Brexit is going to be rubbish for years, but pie in the sky somewhere down the road.

Hard Translation: Keep the white flag flying.

[sandyf]

13 hours ago, vinny41 said:

And I don't know of anyone that has said those exports will be stopped after Brexit in the same way 82% of all cars in the UK are imported from the EU, now if the EU wants to slap on Tariffs for UK to EU imports the Uk will do the same, If the EU choose the option of tariff free cars from the UK to EU i am sure the UK will apply the same rules

 

It is not about vehicles as such, more about vehicle production, different scenario with different problems.

 

Vehicle assembly is highly dependent on parts being available at the right time, with a large number of parts coming from the EU this could be a major problem for assembly lines.

Once out of the EU, the source of parts and place of production raises various questions under the rules of origin. For example the CETA agreement only covers goods "produced" in the European Union. Does that mean that an EU exporter can no longer sell a vehicle assembled in the UK under that agreement?

With the falling pound profits being returned to Japanese shareholders are well below previous levels, something that they have been complaining about for some time. Only the mentally challenged would think that the shareholders have no say in the matter, like brexiteers they will think the grass is greener.

 

 

[Grouse]

17 hours ago, bomber said:

pound is a tad above a 20 year low,the day before brexit is was around 53.5 a no deal would of boosted it to probably 55-57 also GDP would of been higher and inflation lower so possibly it could of been nearer 60,instead its averaged 43 thats a 25% hit and its more or less across all currencies,the extra money spent by brits overseas since brexit must be into the billions and rising,money that could of been spent in the UK,of all the predictions the drop in sterling was the one that was spot on and will be the same again if/when we do leave for good,most of carneys other worst case predictions look to be OTT and my thinking is cut them in half and you wont be far away from reality,so basically were still donald ducked. 

I think Carney is good; far better than King

 

Brexiters always conveniently forget the actions taken by Carney immediately post Brexit referendum. Those actions saved the day but had other effects.

[malagateddy]

Remember this..Carney's previous earner was working for the establishment..ie..a massive banking concern, also all his previous project fear predictions failed to materialise. Also..he's far to chummy with mr eu hammond!!!

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Grouse]

17 hours ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

I didn't mean to sound too judgmental of you / overly scathing in my reply, if it comes off that way I apologise. I don't fully disagree with you that a fair number of people voted out of protest, either - and that their conditions/surroundings were what drove them to vote, in many cases for the first time in their lives.

Many of them were Tories and many of them Labour, and possibly even more were apolitical altogether, it was a mixed bag - the highest voter turnout ever recorded after all. Where we fundamentally differ in our opinion is that I do think their surroundings and their lives in general had suffered/worsened in very large part due to, either directly or indirectly, policies/directives and legislation emanating from the EU. Not solely from Brussels, but in large part. Immigration perhaps being the biggest contributing factor.

What tosh

 

Have you seen the latest immigration figures?

 

Here's what you need to know

 

EU immigration to U.K. Is falling away rapidly. Lowest for 6 years

 

Non EU immigration is rocketing! Highest for 14 years

 

Net immigration still 3x government stated maximum.

 

Well done Brexiters! 

 

Just what you asked for.

 

I don't say Brexiters are dumb; there's no need.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Grouse

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

What tosh

 

Have you seen the latest immigration figures?

 

Here's what you need to know

 

EU immigration to U.K. Is falling away rapidly. Lowest for 6 years

 

Non EU immigration is rocketing! Highest for 14 years

 

Net immigration still 3x government stated maximum.

 

Well done Brexiters! 

 

Just what you asked for.

 

I don't say Brexiters are dumb; there's no need.

Which part of it is 'tosh' then, Grouse. You're something of an expert in that area, so I think you're the authority here....please enlighten me.

 

So, it sounds like you're trying to deny that there's been a huge wave of immigration in the last 20 years. Are you? The majority of it coming from EU member states, especially between 2000 and 2010. I am well aware that 2018 represents the lowest (EU nationals) immigration level for 4 years, not 6. But what is your point? Are you even sure you have one?

The UK 'has lost it's allure' for many EU citizens, as the BBC put it. I wonder why????? In any case the gradual slow down of EU immigration from a mighty torrent to more of a river, is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't erase the previous decade and more and the damage done/rate of change in that time.

 

We simply need to change our immigration policy across the board, that much is clear, with a focus on skilled workers / introduction of a points based system for a number of years, perhaps. Medical staff/engineers, business people and specialists in a number of areas should be welcomed (with equal treatment for immigrants from within the EU and outside it),  unskilled labour and 'trade' en-masse should definitely not be, anymore. The government cannot and never could control immigration (with regard to EU citizens) whilst remaining part of the SM, this is a well known fact.

 

I'm all for controlled immigration, long may it continue, it's vital to most countries around the world. But that is NOT what has been happening in the UK in the last 15 years and you know it.

The UK has simply had too much of it for too long and hasn't been able to control a great deal of it, this is the problem and it's a perfectly legitimate grievance that many people, quite understandably, have. 

100,000s to 10,000s is still the government's promise, but still, it's nowhere near those figures. 2017 net migration (for both EU and non-EU migrants) was 282,000! This is a nonsense.

 

Edited November 30, 2018 by CanterbrigianBangkoker

[Orac]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

I think Carney is good; far better than King

 

Brexiters always conveniently forget the actions taken by Carney immediately post Brexit referendum. Those actions saved the day but had other effects.

 

What gets forgotten with all these official forecasts, be it BoE or OBR, is that their purpose is so that they can influence policy and guide decision making hence they rarely actually come true since actions are taken to mitigate these consequences based on the forecasts themselves - the actions taken by Carney after the referendum being a prime example.

 

There is a useful comparison here of a few forecasts that were done after the referendum and how a accurate they were two years on which was done by the FT last month.

 

 

[rixalex]

What tosh
 
Have you seen the latest immigration figures?
 
Here's what you need to know
 
EU immigration to U.K. Is falling away rapidly. Lowest for 6 years
 
Non EU immigration is rocketing! Highest for 14 years
 
Net immigration still 3x government stated maximum.
 
Well done Brexiters! 
 
Just what you asked for.
 
I don't say Brexiters are dumb; there's no need.

You're welcome. Britain needs immigrants. Brexit isn't about stopping immigrants coming to the country. It's about having a say in who comes in and how many. Non EU immigrants are subject to testing and have to apply for the relevant visa dependent on what they are coming to the country to do. Percentage wise, not so many of non EU immigrants go to Britain to work. If they do, they must obtain a work visa. Show they have a job. Show their relevant skills. This is how ALL immigrants should be treated. Thanks to the EU, that isn't the case. EU immigrants aren't subject to any testing whatsoever. Walk in and do entirely as they please. You say that type of immigration is falling rapidly. Brilliant. You can thank Brexit for that. Now let's keep going. Get it down to zero.

Let's have a say in EVERYONE who comes to the country, not just non EU citizens. Let's make immigration a level playing field. All treated equally.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Grouse]

29 minutes ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

Which part of it is 'tosh' then, Grouse. You're something of an expert in that area, so I think you're the authority here....please enlighten me.

 

So, it sounds like you're trying to deny that there's been a huge wave of immigration in the last 15 years. Are you? The majority of it coming from EU member states, especially between 2000 and 2010. I am well aware that 2018 represents the lowest (EU nationals) immigration level for 4 years, not 6. But what is your point? Are you even sure you have one?

The UK 'has lost it's allure' for many EU citizens, as the BBC put it. I wonder why????? In any case the gradual slow down of EU immigration from a mighty torrent to more of a river, is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't erase the previous decade and more and the damage done/rate of change in that time.

 

We simply need to change our immigration policy across the board, that much is clear, with a focus on skilled workers / a points based system for a number of years. Medical staff/engineers, business people and specialists in a number of areas should be welcomed (with equal treatment for immigrants from within the EU and outside it),  unskilled labour and 'trade' en-masse is definitely not, anymore. The government cannot and never could control immigration (with regard to EU citizens) whilst remaining part of the SM, this is a well known fact.

 

I'm all for controlled immigration, long may it continue, it's vital to most countries around the world. But that is NOT what has been happening in the UK in the last 15 years and you know it.

The UK has simply had too much of it for too long and hasn't been able to control a great deal of it, this is the problem and it's a perfectly legitimate grievance that many people, quite understandably, have. 

100,000s to 10,000s is still the government's promise, but still, it's nowhere near those figures. 2017 net migration (for both EU and non-EU migrants) was 282,000! This is a nonsense.

 

Is it impossible for you to make any point succinctly?

 

My point is that immigration from the EU is falling rapidly without compulsion. Probably because of English nastiness

 

The figures are still around 273,000 because of massive non EU migration. Highest in 14 years! You 

 

Just what the Brexiters wanted.

 

Personally I find Europeansmuch closer to our customs and social mores.

 

Happy now?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46384417

 

chapati anyone?

 

Edited November 30, 2018 by Grouse

[baboon]

4 minutes ago, Grouse said:

My point is that immigration from the EU is falling rapidly without compulsion. Probably because of English nastiness

 

The Pound going down the crapper probably has as much to do with it as English nastiness.... 

[Grouse]

31 minutes ago, CanterbrigianBangkoker said:

Which part of it is 'tosh' then, Grouse. You're something of an expert in that area, so I think you're the authority here....please enlighten me.

 

So, it sounds like you're trying to deny that there's been a huge wave of immigration in the last 20 years. Are you? The majority of it coming from EU member states, especially between 2000 and 2010. I am well aware that 2018 represents the lowest (EU nationals) immigration level for 4 years, not 6. But what is your point? Are you even sure you have one?

The UK 'has lost it's allure' for many EU citizens, as the BBC put it. I wonder why????? In any case the gradual slow down of EU immigration from a mighty torrent to more of a river, is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't erase the previous decade and more and the damage done/rate of change in that time.

 

We simply need to change our immigration policy across the board, that much is clear, with a focus on skilled workers / introduction of a points based system for a number of years, perhaps. Medical staff/engineers, business people and specialists in a number of areas should be welcomed (with equal treatment for immigrants from within the EU and outside it),  unskilled labour and 'trade' en-masse should definitely not be, anymore. The government cannot and never could control immigration (with regard to EU citizens) whilst remaining part of the SM, this is a well known fact.

 

I'm all for controlled immigration, long may it continue, it's vital to most countries around the world. But that is NOT what has been happening in the UK in the last 15 years and you know it.

The UK has simply had too much of it for too long and hasn't been able to control a great deal of it, this is the problem and it's a perfectly legitimate grievance that many people, quite understandably, have. 

100,000s to 10,000s is still the government's promise, but still, it's nowhere near those figures. 2017 net migration (for both EU and non-EU migrants) was 282,000! This is a nonsense.

 

So control immigration!  Why not? 3x more immigrants from non EU countries! Why? Because EU citizens know now the benefits of the EU