$AU down to 18 Baht by end 2019 - What's your break-even point?

[dallen52]

4 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

Yes, I moved to Thailand at 30 Baht. I admit that I didn't foresee that, 5 years later, it would be down to 23 Baht and dropping.

 

It's a shame to loose 25% income through falling exchange rates. Obviously many expats share the same problem. Other expats have plenty of money, other fall back options or have been here long enough to see the highs and lows.

 

I can still 'afford' Thailand, even at 18 Baht. I'm just wondering if there is a point where the typical Aussie might do his sums and decide he can't ''afford' Thailand. I reckon that break even point is about 15 Baht per Australian dollar.

 

Many Brits I know are already bleeding,  or bleating.. 

55 down to 41 / 42.

Aussies down to 23, and I started here just on 33.

I do sympathise with the people who have been here long term, but just the last few years has had mega impacts on some expats.

[4MyEgo]

On 9/5/2018 at 7:58 PM, Stevemercer said:

I get it that currency predictions are just that, and there's no point worrying about something you can't control. I also agree that, nevertheless, one can try and plan to minimise impacts and risks from a lowering income.

 

There are many predictions out there. I admit I looked at the most pessimistic (this was a simple trend line based on the dollar/baht over the last 18 months and extending the same trend over the next 18 months). Most predictions were closer to 20 Baht by the end of 2019. None forecast a weakening Baht, or strengthening Australian dollar, over the next 3 years.

 

I guess I am wondering whether there comes a point when it might be worthwhile looking at living in Australia purely based on economics. Of course, rent would still be the killer cost back in Australia.

I don't know how long you've been living here, or where you are living here, but moving back to Australia, r u serious, that's like going from the pan into the fire.

 

I left Sydney 3 years ago because it was so expensive, it was a plan in the making since 2007 and I departed in 2015, so a lot of planning got me here with enough to keep me going till I'm 101 without investing my funds, and I will admit, I was shocked to find out on the grog vine of local water holes just how many Xpats live here on a shoestring, Jesus, what has everybody been doing all their lives ?

 

Yeh ok, I busted my guts, had a heart attack in the process, invested in property in Sydney and watched what I spent my money on, as I do here, but you cannot just sit idol even in retirement, you still need to make your money work for you, i.e. I have a policy that I need to make 2,000 baht per day to survive over a month, i.e. 60,000 baht per month, I could sit on my a$$ and just withdrawal, but why, that would mean my money would be in negative each month, whereas I find ways to invest it and make 2,000 baht a day minimum so I am at least keeping my money from being in the negative.

 

Enough of me, I feel for you mate, but going back to Oz is going to be a real eye opener for you, rents are crazy in Sydney and Melbourne, have you thought of relocating here, I mean, if your in BKK or Phuket or Pattaya rents might be expensive, I don't know, but I know a bloke who moved about 90km further south of Hua Hin on the river and he pays like 5,000 baht a month, he eats as Thai's do and he copes just fine, personally I couldn't do it, need my meat and imports.

 

I think just cut back on things for a while, watch your money, the Aussie $ will come back up in time, maybe 2019/2020, also look at some opportunities of trying to make some money as opposed to going back.

 

Good luck

[Lacessit]

9 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I don't know how long you've been living here, or where you are living here, but moving back to Australia, r u serious, that's like going from the pan into the fire.

 

I left Sydney 3 years ago because it was so expensive, it was a plan in the making since 2007 and I departed in 2015, so a lot of planning got me here with enough to keep me going till I'm 101 without investing my funds, and I will admit, I was shocked to find out on the grog vine of local water holes just how many Xpats live here on a shoestring, Jesus, what has everybody been doing all their lives ?

 

Yeh ok, I busted my guts, had a heart attack in the process, invested in property in Sydney and watched what I spent my money on, as I do here, but you cannot just sit idol even in retirement, you still need to make your money work for you, i.e. I have a policy that I need to make 2,000 baht per day to survive over a month, i.e. 60,000 baht per month, I could sit on my a$$ and just withdrawal, but why, that would mean my money would be in negative each month, whereas I find ways to invest it and make 2,000 baht a day minimum so I am at least keeping my money from being in the negative.

 

 

 

 

What has everybody been doing all their lives? Pissing it up against a wall, or trying to keep up with the Jones's.

My target is similar to yours - earn about 1 million baht a year, and spend about 800,000 baht of it. That gives me a progressive buffer for things like medical expenses or a car. Been doing that since I first came here in 2009.

The fall in the AUD is a bit of a pest, but it's not a deal-breaker.

[4MyEgo]

16 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

What has everybody been doing all their lives? Pissing it up against a wall, or trying to keep up with the Jones's.

My target is similar to yours - earn about 1 million baht a year, and spend about 800,000 baht of it. That gives me a progressive buffer for things like medical expenses or a car. Been doing that since I first came here in 2009.

The fall in the AUD is a bit of a pest, but it's not a deal-breaker.

You hit the nail on the head mate.

 

Going out and pissing it up is easy, I personally have had a great life, not one to sit there and count my pennies, been overseas to Europe twice in my younger years, purchased nice cars, motorbikes, had nice places to live in too.

 

The thing is, most think that getting wages is enough to survive on and wait for the pension, fact of the matter is, if you don't put some aside to work for you, e.g. property or stock market, or at the very least superannuation, the end result is bismal.

 

Not rich by any means, especially if I moved back to Sydney, didn't inherit anything, but working 2 jobs, overtime when I could get it and paying that mortgage for 30 years, collecting some super and making the move here has me a pretty a well off fella, even after a divorce in 1999 where the x got half a mil, gotta get up off the ground when the horse throws you off and dust it off and re-coupe the losses.

 

I have friends that are multi millionaires, I am talking 10's of millions, one is worth at least 50 mil, great blokes, have everything because they worked their a$$e$ off, but they don't have the quality of life we have here because they are working 6 7th's of their lives, and their kids will eventually end up getting it all.

 

I tell them to slow down, take a break, but the businesses have given them the poison, i.e. the $'s and they can't stop, suffice to say, I hope they can one day and hope that their health remains in intact for them to be able to enjoy the labour of their fruits in life.

Edited September 6, 2018 by 4MyEgo

[dbrenn]

Nobody knows what value any currency will have at the end of 2019 - there are too many variables at play, so I wouldn't be taking too much notice of the prophets of doom.

[ExpatOilWorker]

15 hours ago, MikeN said:

One thing wrong with extrapolating anything from that chart is that anything before the Asian financial crisis in 1997 is irrelevant....the Thai baht was manipulated before it was floated then, and the AU $ was fixed up until Keating floated it in the early eighties. It’s only since then that the FX rate reflects a “true” value.

I have included future values in ur chart, so you guys can better plan ahead.

Edited September 7, 2018 by ExpatOilWorker

[gearbox]

17 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

 

Enough of me, I feel for you mate, but going back to Oz is going to be a real eye opener for you, rents are crazy in Sydney and Melbourne, have you thought of relocating here, I mean, if your in BKK or Phuket or Pattaya rents might be expensive, I don't know, but I know a bloke who moved about 90km further south of Hua Hin on the river and he pays like 5,000 baht a month, he eats as Thai's do and he copes just fine, personally I couldn't do it, need my meat and imports.

 

 

I'm planning to move to Thailand next month and writing this from Sydney now...the rent for oldish 2 bedroom apartment on the lower North Shore is 650-750 AUD per week. I'm  paying 12.5k baht per month for 2 bedroom resort style bungalow in Samui which has 15 meters swimming pool in the complex - that's more than 4 times cheaper for better quality accommodation.

I can't see anyone surviving only on OAP in Sydney unless they have their own place to live, and even then it would be quite a struggle..

The Aussie economy is built on houses and holes, and the houses are not doing well right now. The outlook for the AUD/THB in short term doesn't look promising unless something goes wrong on the Thailand side.

  

 

[4MyEgo]

18 minutes ago, gearbox said:

 

I'm planning to move to Thailand next month and writing this from Sydney now...the rent for oldish 2 bedroom apartment on the lower North Shore is 650-750 AUD per week. I'm  paying 12.5k baht per month for 2 bedroom resort style bungalow in Samui which has 15 meters swimming pool in the complex - that's more than 4 times cheaper for better quality accommodation.

I can't see anyone surviving only on OAP in Sydney unless they have their own place to live, and even then it would be quite a struggle..

The Aussie economy is built on houses and holes, and the houses are not doing well right now. The outlook for the AUD/THB in short term doesn't look promising unless something goes wrong on the Thailand side.

  

 

Yep, averaged out, that's about 16,500 baht per week compared to 12,500 baht per month what your paying for in Samui, laughable really.

 

Watch that Sydney property market take a dive of between 20%-30% over the next 3 years, yep about 10% per annum, its over inflated, the Chinese kept it going until the government finally acted and brought in all the heavy taxes for foreigners, Xpats coping it in the crossfire, with a lot of them forced to sell their principal place of residents come 1 July 2019 or pay the new hefty capital gains taxes, (subject to legislation being passed), interest rates are slowly going up and the reserve bank is going to have to act sooner than later in raising the offical rates or watch that dollar slide even further, we won't talk about the mortgage stress out there at the moment, some 1-3 mil I hear ?

 

Thailand is the new Lucky Country for me now, warts and all, because I can actually live and spend without crying over the price of food, accommodation, building costs, labour costs, car costs etc etc, and I really feel for anyone trying to live off the pension back in Oz, even as you say, if they have property paid off, they would be lucky, but would be better off downsizing, or renting and living off the money, but then Centrelink would be cutting their pension, damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Edited September 7, 2018 by 4MyEgo

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

interest rates are slowly going up and the reserve bank is going to have to act sooner than later in raising the offical rates or watch that dollar slide even further, we won't talk about the mortgage stress out there at the moment, some 1-3 mil I hear ?

 

Yes, there is a lot of accumulated debt and with the dollar going down the interest rates would go up as many things are imported and the inflation would be on the way up...

 

To live OK in Sydney ans save a bit of money a couple IMO needs at least 150K gross. In my opinion there is no reason for someone not working to stay in Sydney, except for medical reasons or staying close to their children.

 

Everyone is different, but for me Thailand have a lots of ticks for the things important to me. The OP may have different things in mind. Money wise I can do quite OK even here in Sydney, but will be bored to death. 

 

 

[suzannegoh]

22 hours ago, Lacessit said:

You haven't been here very long, have you? If you can explain to me how one gets to be financially savvy on a rice field wage of 200 baht a day, I'm all ears. it's a question of opportunity.

You are contradicting yourself.  You were the one who thought that Thais buying gold meant something, now you're agreeing that they lack financial savvy and cite a reason for it.  So which is it, should we emulated their financial moves or should we be mindful that most of them never had the opportunity to learn how to handle money?

Edited September 7, 2018 by suzannegoh

[Lacessit]

5 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

You are arguing in circles.  You were the one who thought that Thais buying gold meant something, now you're agreeing that they lack financial saavy and cite a reason for it.  So which is it, should we emulated their fiancial moves or should we be mindful that most of them never had the opportunity to learn how to handle money?

There are wealthy Thais and poor Thais. The wealthy ones are buying gold. Bullion, not jewellery. You should be able to work out for yourself if you should emulate their strategy. Assuming you can afford it.

I do get a little tired of the Thai-bashing and stereotyping, because my experience says otherwise.

Maybe I am arguing in circles. Or maybe I'm looking at both sides of the coin.

[AboutThaim]

On 9/5/2018 at 2:25 PM, Lacessit said:

Naam is right. Over the past ten years, the AUD against the baht has NEVER been below 20 baht. Currencies fluctuate all the time. ( Source: xe.com )

Once we get rid of the current cabal of clowns in Canberra, and develop a sensible energy policy, the Aussie dollar will rise again.

You mean when another cabal of clowns replaces the current cabal of clowns in Canberra.  I won't be holding my breath expecting anything from our Aussie politicians bar the usual BS blame game, name calling, infighting and general lack of interest in running the country. Even the one poly who tried to do something useful by deporting scumbags, that shouldn't have been let into Australia in the first place, was overuled by some bleeding heart  government appointed organisation and they were allowed to stay.

[AboutThaim]

On 9/5/2018 at 4:30 PM, Lacessit said:

has more sunlight and wind than anywhere else in the world. 

Yep, more sunlight than most countries and definitely more hot air coming out of Canberra all year round.  Even when there's snow on the hills around the city.

[Lacessit]

10 minutes ago, AboutThaim said:

Yep, more sunlight than most countries and definitely more hot air coming out of Canberra all year round.  Even when there's snow on the hills around the city.

You're taking pessimism to a new level.

[CharlieH]

A crude inflammatory post and subsequent response have been removed.

 

Off topic also removed.

[AsiaHand]

On 9/5/2018 at 2:07 PM, Guderian said:

Maybe .... there'll be a coup or something in Thailand.

 

We already had one in 2014 in case you missed it, and it didn't hurt the Baht at all. Nor did the one back in 2006 as far as I can recall.

We have had a great many coups over the years and that is not what effects the baht to most currencies.The status of The Australian GNP and other national policies with Thailand are the reasons that the baht to The Aussie dollar changes.With the Thailand people making more money their cost of living goes up as does ours along with it.Since a lot of Farangs are on a fixed income we have to cut back.I can no longer afford to play golf as often as I used to and have to cut down my Pattaya trips from BKK .And like most Farangs I truly do not want to go to what was my home .After all these years my friends are here not there.I could not enjoy the conversations that I have there as I do here with all the different nationalities while meeting new ones everyday.No I will just tightened my belt and stay here.

[mfd101]

To be clear, it is the quite separate changes in the relationship of the $A to the $US and the relationship of the ฿ to the $US that produces - as INDIRECT or collateral damage - changes in the xrate between Thailand & Oz. There is scarcely any direct relationship between the Oz & Thai currencies (mostly because the trade relationship between the two economies is relatively small).

[Bluetongue]

14 hours ago, mfd101 said:

To be clear, it is the quite separate changes in the relationship of the $A to the $US and the relationship of the ฿ to the $US that produces - as INDIRECT or collateral damage - changes in the xrate between Thailand & Oz. There is scarcely any direct relationship between the Oz & Thai currencies (mostly because the trade relationship between the two economies is relatively small).

Thailand is, I am pretty sure, in the top 5 of Australia's trading partners. The DFAT preamble to the TAFTA (Thailand Australia Free Trade Agreement) says 20 billion pa. Hardly relatively small. Australia imports a lot more from here than it exports. By far the largest chunk is motor vehicles. Perhaps a lot of these imports are denominated in other currencies though which would support your claim. Given that many of these motor vehicles would be Japanese or American (brands).

Edited September 13, 2018 by Bluetongue

[mfd101]

1 hour ago, Bluetongue said:

Thailand is, I am pretty sure, in the top 5 of Australia's trading partners. The DFAT preamble to the TAFTA (Thailand Australia Free Trade Agreement) says 20 billion pa. Hardly relatively small. Australia imports a lot more from here than it exports. By far the largest chunk is motor vehicles. Perhaps a lot of these imports are denominated in other currencies though which would support your claim. Given that many of these motor vehicles would be Japanese or American (brands).

RELATIVELY small means just that (ie not absolutely small though by what criterion?).

 

Relative to Oz 2-way trade with China [$A174B], Japan [$A68B], US [$A66B] & Korea [$A38B], Thailand shows up well down the graph in 9th place [$A21B - just below UK, NZ, India & Singapore].

 

In any case, as you suggest, just about ALL international trade is done in $US so it is the respective relativities to the $US that count since it is they that dictate the xrate between any other 2 currencies, in this case $A & ฿. What changes the $A relative to the $US is (1) respective interest rates - currently higher in US than in Oz, and (2) Oz economic performance hugely influenced - as suggested by the figures above - by its China trade, currently feeling threatened because of US trade sanctions against China. What influences the Baht is (1) its loose ties to the $US and (2) Thai economic performance, currently quite strong with tourism & other investment inflows & a very healthy current account & trade balance.