Trump disputes Puerto Rico storm death toll, draws outcry

[heybruce]

9 minutes ago, Srinivas said:

house hold surveys are as good as election polling like we saw in 2016

i think nyt had hrc winning at 92% morning of voting day ?

People who don't understand polls, probability and statistics shouldn't comment on them.

 

The Presidential polls gave an accurate prediction of the popular vote.  And death tolls don't go by an electoral college.

[Srinivas]

3 minutes ago, heybruce said:

"i love the dailyfoaming at the mouth of trump haters defenders and this may or may not help in alleviating rabies like symptoms"

 

 

Your sources describe some of the many ways to count death tolls following a hurricane.  It doesn't support Trump's claim that the death toll is 6 to 18; no credible source uses such ridiculously now numbers now.  Only Trump.

 

I think Wapo had an article blaming Trump for the current hurricane.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/another-hurricane-is-about-to-batter-our-coast-trump-is-complicit/2018/09/11/ccaed766-b5fb-11e8-a7b5-adaaa5b2a57f_story.html

 

i guess they'll blame Trump for some 3000 deaths in 2020, revised of course

 

 

 

[ChouDoufu]

15 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

At least 1800 died because of Katrina

 

Different hurricane. 

 

Different president. 

 

Different death toll. 

 

https://www.britannica.com/event/Hurricane-Katrina

the linked article states NHC attributes 1200 deaths directly to katrina.  that statistic does not include indirect deaths as in this study.

 

different method.  using the same method for katrina would greatly increase the deaths from that event, maybe into the tens of thousands.  using the same method as katrina for maria would likely show the response under trump was appropriate and effective. 

[Bluespunk]

15 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

the linked article states NHC attributes 1200 deaths directly to katrina.  that statistic does not include indirect deaths as in this study.

 

different method.  using the same method for katrina would greatly increase the deaths from that event, maybe into the tens of thousands.  using the same method as katrina for maria would likely show the response under trump was appropriate and effective. 

The article I posted says 1800 died because of Katrina. I’ll go with that number.

 

trump’s response to Maria was wholly inadequate and definitely not effective. 

 

His desire to deny the truth more so. 

Edited September 14, 2018 by Bluespunk

[RawboneFunksta]

Trump has a point

 

The death toll from Maria, the most powerful storm to hit there in almost a century, was raised last month from 64, a number widely discounted as far too low, to 2,975.

 

That sounds (non) scientific LMAO

 

It would not matter what the President did, he would be criticised and lies/omissions would be widespread. 

 

He's an outsider and it's not in the interests of Republicans or Democrats to support him as most of them have their noses to deeply embedded in the swill bin. The arms trade has no more loyal supporters . . . 

 

MAGA!

[DM07]

What is this?

The @#$%^&! Olympics of hurricanes?

 

I think, we can be very certain about a few things:

- for sure, more people then just 8 (or 16 or 30) died from the hurricane in Puerto Rico

- the measures to help Puerto Rico were insuficiant, to put it cautiously

- of course, more people die in the wake of a hurricane, especially when there is not enough (clean) drinking water, no real electricity supply, no medical supply etc.

 - I want to know the guy(s) who gave Trump "a 10 out of 10" or "A plusses" on ANYTHING in any disaster area! Names, please! 

- I have no idea, why we are even discussing this bloated, brainless, egomaniacal looser of a sad excuse for a human on this! Even the die hard- Trumpsters will have to twist themselves into pretzels, to get out of this, if they are honest with themselves...but ...of course...therein lies the problem!

[metisdead]

An off topic trolling post about the 2016 election has been removed as well as the replies.

 

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed as well as the reply:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

[Jingthing]

"trump"'s worst tweet?

That's a really high bar! 

 

 

[johnnybangkok]

11 minutes ago, RawboneFunksta said:

Trump has a point

 

The death toll from Maria, the most powerful storm to hit there in almost a century, was raised last month from 64, a number widely discounted as far too low, to 2,975.

 

That sounds (non) scientific LMAO

 

It would not matter what the President did, he would be criticised and lies/omissions would be widespread. 

 

He's an outsider and it's not in the interests of Republicans or Democrats to support him as most of them have their noses to deeply embedded in the swill bin. The arms trade has no more loyal supporters . . . 

 

MAGA!

'It would not matter what the President did, he would be criticised and lies/omissions would be widespread' 

He could have:

Not waited 6 days after the hurricane to hold a meeting about it.

Put out his first Tweet (and we know how he loves a good Tweet) long before the 5 days that he actually took

Not blamed the Major and the people of Puerto Rico for all the problems.

Insisted that more than the 10,000  federal personnel got on the ground immediately as all other previous hurricanes (Harvey, Irma) had required 30-40,000.

Got more troops on the ground. 

Got food and water there quicker.

Visited it personally before the 13 days it actually took him.

Not Insisted the death toll was just 16 or 17 at the time when EVERYONE knew it was way higher.

 

So yeah, a few things.

 

 

 

[heybruce]

49 minutes ago, Srinivas said:

 

I think Wapo had an article blaming Trump for the current hurricane.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/another-hurricane-is-about-to-batter-our-coast-trump-is-complicit/2018/09/11/ccaed766-b5fb-11e8-a7b5-adaaa5b2a57f_story.html

 

i guess they'll blame Trump for some 3000 deaths in 2020, revised of course

Do you understand the difference between opinion (editorial) and news articles?

[heybruce]

27 minutes ago, RawboneFunksta said:

Trump has a point

 

The death toll from Maria, the most powerful storm to hit there in almost a century, was raised last month from 64, a number widely discounted as far too low, to 2,975.

 

That sounds (non) scientific LMAO

 

It would not matter what the President did, he would be criticised and lies/omissions would be widespread. 

 

He's an outsider and it's not in the interests of Republicans or Democrats to support him as most of them have their noses to deeply embedded in the swill bin. The arms trade has no more loyal supporters . . . 

 

MAGA!

The new number is the scientific number, and Trump is notorious for his lies and admissions.  But that doesn't matter to Trumpies, doe it?

[Berkshire]

Trump is such a moron.  He hears some ridiculous conspiracy theory from some nutty source and without even verifying, puts out a Presidential tweet for all to see.  But that's his MO.  Anything that supports his narrative and/or agenda, he will treat as the gospel.  And anything that doesn't is fake news invented by the Democrats.  What an embarrassment to the country this idiot is.  Trump needs to be impeached like yesterday.  And indicted sooner rather than later. 

[bristolboy]

9 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

Left wing ideologues created false statistical analysis.

The power of ideology and propaganda to shape the thinking of social scientists, in particular, never ceases to amaze me.

 

Thank you for your well reasoned contribution to the discussion, Professor.

[Becker]

12 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

Left wing ideologues created false statistical analysis.

The power of ideology and propaganda to shape the thinking of social scientists, in particular, never ceases to amaze me.

 

There are other things that amaze me and your post is an example of that. Unfortunately, pointing them out would be against forum rules.

[FritsSikkink]

57 minutes ago, RawboneFunksta said:

Trump has a point

 

The death toll from Maria, the most powerful storm to hit there in almost a century, was raised last month from 64, a number widely discounted as far too low, to 2,975.

 

That sounds (non) scientific LMAO

 

It would not matter what the President did, he would be criticised and lies/omissions would be widespread. 

 

He's an outsider and it's not in the interests of Republicans or Democrats to support him as most of them have their noses to deeply embedded in the swill bin. The arms trade has no more loyal supporters . . . 

 

MAGA!

My Attorney Got Arrested

[Becker]

1 hour ago, RawboneFunksta said:

 

He's an outsider and it's not in the interests of Republicans or Democrats to support him as most of them have their noses to deeply embedded in the swill bin. The arms trade has no more loyal supporters . . . 

 

MAGA!

I'm pretty sure Putin's rear exit doesn't smell like roses either, not even for the man-child's nose that's been immersed in swill from an early age.

MAWA!!

 

 

 

PS. His nose is so far up there you can't even see his tiny orange feet sticking out.

Edited September 14, 2018 by Becker

[oldrunner]

Puerto Rico is rife with crooked politicians. The distribution of FEMA support was stolen as fast as the bums could get their hands on it. No trucks or drivers available to distribute what goods there was. This is a sad country and the last thing we need is for these crooks to become a US STATE. Might find FBI cleaning the Island and that would not do well for the crooked politicians and mafia clans. Good luck to the poor citizens who have no control over the crooks.

[heybruce]

40 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

Left wing ideologues created false statistical analysis.

The power of ideology and propaganda to shape the thinking of social scientists, in particular, never ceases to amaze me.

 

In other words, you reject science, statistics, evidence and anything else that leads to a conclusion that you do not like.  You only believe what you want to believe.

 

Reminds me of the beginning of a Rush Limbaugh rant on climate change I heard while channel surfing on the car radio.  I changed channels immediately after he stated "I don't know science, but I know liberals....".  He admitted he didn't understand the science behind what he was about to discuss, so I didn't care what he had to say.

[heybruce]

11 minutes ago, oldrunner said:

Puerto Rico is rife with crooked politicians. The distribution of FEMA support was stolen as fast as the bums could get their hands on it. No trucks or drivers available to distribute what goods there was. This is a sad country and the last thing we need is for these crooks to become a US STATE. Might find FBI cleaning the Island and that would not do well for the crooked politicians and mafia clans. Good luck to the poor citizens who have no control over the crooks.

I do recall that drivers and trucks could not learn where they were needed (communications were down all over the island) and often found roads impassable even if they knew where they were needed.

 

Do you have sources to support your claim that FEMA support was stolen by crooked politicians?

[spidermike007]

It is obvious to many that this man is his own worst enemy. Just when a controversy is nearly forgotten, he tweets about it and reawakens the issue and creates another crisis. I beleive it is pathological and he just cannot help himself. Some of us were hoping a guy like Kelly would have enough strenght and influence to stop the self destructive behavior. Guess that was not possible. He has only himself to blame for his declining popularity and low approval numbers. 

[Berkshire]

25 minutes ago, oldrunner said:

Puerto Rico is rife with crooked politicians. The distribution of FEMA support was stolen as fast as the bums could get their hands on it. No trucks or drivers available to distribute what goods there was. This is a sad country and the last thing we need is for these crooks to become a US STATE. Might find FBI cleaning the Island and that would not do well for the crooked politicians and mafia clans. Good luck to the poor citizens who have no control over the crooks.

Whether this is true or not, what does it have to do with Trump disputing that 3,000 people died as a result of the storm? 

[heybruce]

13 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

Show us your supporting data.

Do you know what scientific method is?

You don't seem to know what argumentum ad-hominem is, yet you appear to use it freely.

With degrees in mathematics and engineering and a background in aerospace system test, I think I have some grasp of rational, evidence based analysis.  And you?

 

"ad hominem

An ad hominem, short for argumentum ad hominem, is an attack on an argument made by attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, rather than attacking the argument directly."  http://ad hominem An ad hominem, short for argumentum ad hominem, is an attack on an argument made by attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, rather than attacking the argument directly.

 

A poster questioned the people who conduct scientific analysis with an argumentum ad hominem, I replied with another argumentum ad hominem, and now you've replied with the same.  Do you have a point?

 

Since this topic is not about elevating an idea from hypothesis to theory through testing and attempting to disprove the hypothesis, I'm not sure why you think the scientific method is pertinent.

 

 

Edited September 14, 2018 by heybruce

[bristolboy]

12 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

Show us your supporting data.

Do you know what scientific method is?

You don't seem to know what argumentum ad-hominem is, yet you appear to use it freely.

So your idea of the scientic method is to assert this?:

"Left wing ideologues created false statistical analysis"

Where's your supporting data?

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

Harvard study.

https://www.npr.org/2018/08/03/635449562/harvard-research-fellow-estimates-puerto-rico-s-death-toll-following-hurricane-m

 

Milken study.

https://publichealth.gwu.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/projects/PRstudy/Acertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.pdf

Because the Milliken study was the most rigorous one done to date:

"The research represents the most rigorous study of excess mortality due to the hurricane done to date. The GW-led team analyzed death certificates and other mortality data for six months from September 2017 through February 2018. Using a sophisticated mathematical model, the team compared the total number of deaths during that time to the expected number based on historical patterns."

• https://publichealth.gwu.edu/content/gw-report-delivers-recommendations-aimed-preparing-puerto-rico-hurricane-season
• And if you want to read the entire study, here's a link:
• https://publichealth.gwu.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/projects/PRstudy/Acertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.pdf

And you still haven't offered any evidence to back up your this claim:

"Left wing ideologues created false statistical analysis."

What makes it especially comical it the kind of ad hominem attack you profess to deplore. Doublethink much?

[duanebigsby]

9 hours ago, dcutman said:

Does not the official death toll from this hurricane come from the Puerto Rica Govt.? 

Whats Trump got to do with it? Right or wrong the local government reports the official death toll. A hundred different sources can do studies and it still does not change the local govt official death toll.

Puerto Rico's gov't commissioned the independent review from George Washington University, accepted the results and and issued them as the official death toll.

[DM07]

1 hour ago, oldrunner said:

Puerto Rico is rife with crooked politicians. The distribution of FEMA support was stolen as fast as the bums could get their hands on it. No trucks or drivers available to distribute what goods there was. This is a sad country and the last thing we need is for these crooks to become a US STATE. Might find FBI cleaning the Island and that would not do well for the crooked politicians and mafia clans. Good luck to the poor citizens who have no control over the crooks.

...and I assume, you have hard evidence, to prove your Bull...your substantiated allegations?!

[bristolboy]

12 minutes ago, hyku1147 said:

I posted the link that you re-posted. How do you explain the death toll discrepancies between the two studies? Flawed method? Author bias?

The GW study had a lot more people on it and a lot more sophisticated analysis. In addition, it covers a longer period of time after the hurricane.

[55Jay]

1 hour ago, oldrunner said:

Puerto Rico is rife with crooked politicians. The distribution of FEMA support was stolen as fast as the bums could get their hands on it. No trucks or drivers available to distribute what goods there was. This is a sad country and the last thing we need is for these crooks to become a US STATE. Might find FBI cleaning the Island and that would not do well for the crooked politicians and mafia clans. Good luck to the poor citizens who have no control over the crooks.

My best mate for many decades is PR.  He would say the same thing and did, many times.  It's not a secret. 

 

Same kind of thing on Guam - another Bongo Bongo Banana territory, nicked named "The Island of Thieves".  Being a perpetual "developing" country is lucrative when you've got a generous Sugar Daddy with low expectations.  

 

Then again, can't look down my nose too much.  In the US State I was born in, there are people defecating in the streets now. ?

[xylophone]

4 hours ago, thaiguzzi said:

I have more class in my little toenail.

This man is utter classless.

Just shows that wealth cannot buy class.

Nor is wealth any measure of intelligence as is clearly obvious in the case of this orange clown.!

Edited September 14, 2018 by xylophone

[xylophone]

3 hours ago, DM07 said:

I have no idea, why we are even discussing this bloated, brainless, egomaniacal looser of a sad excuse for a human on this! Even the die hard- Trumpsters will have to twist themselves into pretzels, to get out of this, if they are honest with themselves...but ...of course...therein lies the problem!

Well said, couldn't agree more!