Britain can end Brexit unilaterally, EU court advisor says

[bomber]

23 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Bet your glad you got rid of your bile...now you can turn your attention to the massive youth unemployment in some of your oh so wonderful eu member countries like Spain..Eire..Greece etc etc

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

youth unemployment has been high in those nations for many years but they dont go out and riot like they did in the UK in the early 80s,and those countries economies altho not performing great are still above the UK whose GDP dropped from top to 6th after the vote and will drop further and faster even with Mays deal,no deal and its a full on recession.

[nauseus]

38 minutes ago, oilinki said:

Let me conclude my rant. How freaking arrogant and stupid a well respected country like UK could have become?

 

For me, it was utter disbelief, what I learned during these two years I plunged into British politics. 

 

I actually thought British were rather smart and logical people. Now I know better. You are nothing more than colder climate Italians with sexual frustrations. 

Maybe you should have avoided the shallow end? Lots of childish chilly winkers there.

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, malagateddy said:

Bet your glad you got rid of your bile...now you can turn your attention to the massive youth unemployment in some of your oh so wonderful eu member countries like Spain..Eire..Greece etc etc

Perhaps. That's not a bad idea at all. 

[nauseus]

4 minutes ago, bomber said:

youth unemployment has been high in those nations for many years but they dont go out and riot like they did in the UK in the early 80s,and those countries economies altho not performing great are still above the UK whose GDP dropped from top to 6th after the vote and will drop further and faster even with Mays deal,no deal and its a full on recession.

economies altho not performing great are still above the UK. Now you are avin a larf! Good one.

[mommysboy]

36 minutes ago, bomber said:

i think this brexit idea will work after all,Cuba and Venezuela will be our saviour once comrade corbyn takes over and gets the old British Leyland factories up and and running again then he will strike the mother of all trade deals with them to buy millions of Morris Itals,them 1950s Chevy's have had their day time to move on.

Silly rant- as usual.  The key word lacking is 'Democratic'.  The nations mentioned above are not accountable.

 

But you have to ask why it is UK could not maintain even one British owned car company, when the Japanese have operated successfully in the UK for years.  Do you imagine they do not receive help from their government?

 

You are characterising Social Democracy based on the awful 70's, where the unions were running the agenda.  Perhaps you need to move on.  Besides a Labour Government is almost a hypothetical these days.

 

You now have to ask where Neo-Liberalism has got us.  Isn't Brexit really just a smokescreen to hide the fact that all major economies are falling short?

[mommysboy]

55 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

there sure is a huge trading world outside of eea

 

and yes, there does not seem to be what you could call a compromise exit here

 

I just reacted negatively to trade possibilities being coupled to brexit options, fairly separate issues

 

how about a NAFTA-Brexit?

rename the FTA from North America to North Atlantic - might be possible

 

In terms of Brexit options for the UK, the 'no deal' is a valid option, since it avoids having to negotiate with an intransigent partner.  Has the UK really been so unreasonable in its demands?  Cherry pick deals have been struck with Japan and Canada, I think.  And, UK has been more than willing to face up to it's responsibilities in Europe regarding defence, the treatment of EU workers, and the divorce deal, as well as its commitment to maintaining a border free Ireland.  Of course, It's the EU's right also to decline or accept as it sees fit.  Ultimately, UK offered a free trade deal that was declined early doors.  You agree the present deal is pretty bad?  Would you have your country sign up to it?

[My Thai Life]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

Leave voters have been let down.  They did win after all.  Yet, I think it's a step too far to assume that the win was a mandate for the so called 'no Deal Brexit'- that likelihood simply wasn't countenanced, indeed I think it was dismissed as project fear.

Hi MB, well there is a mandate to leave. There isn't a mandate to stay.

 

In the absence of a negotiated deal, that leaves WTO terms, which some people refer to as "no deal". Actually, in practice "WTO" would be more than that, it would be WTO plus specific mutually necessary agreements, let's say air transport as an example.

 

In my earlier post, which you're responding to here, I made a list of WTO benefits. I am happy to discuss any of those points, or any others, in more detail.

 

WTO in March 2019 is the quickest route to get to FTAs with other trading entities including the EU. And in the absence of other agreements it's the only thing that there is a mandate for. 

 

I'd really like to hear from you about what you see as the major problem(s) with WTO, but I'm not going to respond to the abusive uninformed trolls that plague these Brexit threads.

Edited December 7, 2018 by My Thai Life

[bomber]

20 minutes ago, nauseus said:

economies altho not performing great are still above the UK. Now you are avin a larf! Good one.

the UK is doing badly

List of European Union member states by GDP growth - Wikipedia.html

[melvinmelvin]

7 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

In terms of Brexit options for the UK, the 'no deal' is a valid option, since it avoids having to negotiate with an intransigent partner.  Has the UK really been so unreasonable in its demands?  Cherry pick deals have been struck with Japan and Canada, I think.  And, UK has been more than willing to face up to it's responsibilities in Europe regarding defence, the treatment of EU workers, and the divorce deal, as well as its commitment to maintaining a border free Ireland.  Of course, It's the EU's right also to decline or accept as it sees fit.  Ultimately, UK offered a free trade deal that was declined early doors.  You agree the present deal is pretty bad?  Would you have your country sign up to it?

 

NO, would not sign that deal! Nee way.

The deal is terrible - and in my view does NOT deliver on the referendum

 

UK has not been unreasonable but has not handled negotiations well.

 

Not sure hard Brexit is wise but I very seriously doubt it would be as bad as some say.

 

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

3 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Hi MB, well there is a mandate to leave. There isn't a mandate to stay.

 

In the absence of a negotiated deal, that leaves WTO terms, which some people refer to as "no deal". Actually, in practice "WTO" would be more than that, it would be WTO plus specific mutually necessary agreements, let's say air transport as an example.

 

In my earlier post, which you're responding to here, I made a list of WTO benefits. I am happy to discuss any of those points (or any others that people have) in more detail.

 

WTO in March 2019 is the quickest route to get to FTAs with other trading entities including the EU. And in the absence of other agreements it's the only thing that there is a mandate for. 

 

I'd really like to hear from you about what you see as the major problem(s) with WTO, but I'm not going to respond to the abusive uninformed trolls that plague these Brexit threads.

No major objections to the plan.  It's really about the electorate being on side, proper preparation, and implementation.  And this is where the Government has really screwed up again. Worst of all the WTO deal has become synonymous with 'no deal', which in turn seems to represent the end of global trade for the UK.  Leavers have been really let down here.  In fact all of us have been sorely misled in to believing UK can't stand on its own two feet.  In fact May has turned WTO deal in to a threat.

 

I do maintain there is no mandate for it.  I agree there is no mandate to stay, but at some point common sense rules have to apply.

 

Equally, there will come a time, I believe, that we as a nation will find our mojo- it most often occurs when backed against a wall.  I do not now believe the EU has been reasonable in its negotiations.

 

 

[nauseus]

25 minutes ago, bomber said:

the UK is doing badly

List of European Union member states by GDP growth - Wikipedia.html

Oh, GDP growth now? Southern European unemployment rates, which were being discussed, are doing a whole lot worse. 

[My Thai Life]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

It's really about the electorate being on side, proper preparation, and implementation.  And this is where the Government has really screwed up again. Worst of all the WTO deal has become synonymous with 'no deal', which in turn seems to represent the end of global trade for the UK.

Agreed, May screwed up. It would be too easy for me to say "it's because she's a treacherous remainer". I doubt anyone in the current political spectrum could have succeeded with the cards she was dealt, and none of the major politicians have acquitted themselves honourably. Nevertheless May has been especially duplicitous, unbelievably so, she makes Blair look like a beginner, a highly polished and more professional beginner.

 

Talking of Blair, he is probably the only political leader in my adult life-time that I could have supported. But he betrayed the working-class so profoundly, I have the deepest disgust for him and his ilk (as do many of the leave voters of course). My own background is not simple, as I'm sure you've gathered by now. 

 

McCluskey says there should not be a 2nd referendum. I agree with him on ethical grounds. And the reactionaries in Parliament and in the CBI who think they can subvert the referendum need to consider how the price of diesel has inflamed the law-abiding middle of the road Fench.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Agreed, May screwed up. It would be too easy for me to say "it's because she's a treacherous remainer". I doubt anyone in the current political spectrum could have succeeded with the cards she was dealt, and none of the major politicians have acquitted themselves honourably. Nevertheless May has been especially duplicitous, unbelievably so, she makes Blair look like a beginner, a highly polished and more professional beginner.

 

Talking of Blair, he is probably the only political leader in my adult life-time that I could have supported. But he betrayed the working-class so profoundly, I have the deepest disgust for him and his ilk (as do many of the leave voters of course). My own background is not simple, as I'm sure you've gathered by now. 

 

McCluskey says there should not be a 2nd referendum. I agree with him on ethical grounds. And the reactionaries in Parliament and in the CBI who think they can subvert the referendum need to consider how the price of diesel has inflamed the law-abiding middle of the road Fench.

My impression of the negotiations is, that neutral May was probably the best person to negotiate with the EU. 

 

Had the PM been one of these loud mouthed, substanceless freaks like Boris Johnson or his alikes, there had not been any deal whatsoever. Fake political faces are fast put aside by the EU. 

 

Blair probably could have managed to get a better deal, but that deal would have meant that UK would have been far more integrated with the EU after the Brexit. 

 

May really wanted to execute the will of the people, to exit EU. She managed to get the best deal possible what was available for UK. In fact she managed to get even better deal than was expected and should have been allowed to happen. 

 

When this deal is voted as a no-go at the British parliament and the deal is returned to the EU. What happens is that EU might offer some minor changes, which mean nothing. 

 

When that deal is voted down for the 2nd time in the UK parliament, that's pretty much it. 

 

Perhaps there is enough time for UK to vote to cancel Brexit. Perhaps there is not. 

 

I guess we'll find that in the next few months. 

 

 

[bristolboy]

3 hours ago, damascase said:

Just a couple of points. WTO rules enter into force, by default, when there is no agreement with the EU. Indeed it is only a starting point, a basis from which the UK can start negotiating trade agreements with other countries. Until such agreements are in force, all other WTO Members will treat the UK, tariff-wise, in a non-preferential way resulting in duties being due in situations where currently there are zero tariffs in place under the many agreements of the EU with third countries. Keep in mind that when the UK would choose to grant zero tariffs on some EU goods, the UK must apply these same zero tariffs on such goods from any other 163 (?) WTO Member country. And frictionless? Goods would still have to be declared to Customs, there will not be free circulation of goods as currently within the EU Customs Union. Under WTO, the ‘free-est of free trade’???? For ‘free trade’ you need to negotiate agreements - and how would the UK under WTO rules be in a much stronger negotiating position for future talks with the EU? After Brexit under WTO, the UK would be in the unique position of being the only developed country without so much as a single trade agreement. Isn’t that a rather weak starting position? ‘WTO doesn’t require a hard border in Ireland’: WTO doesn’t cover border arrangments at all, this will have to be settled between the EU and the UK, one cannot introduce a ‘soft border’ unilaterally. 

Actually, WTO rules don't just enter into force by default. I used to think that too, But as that article in the Financial Times pointed out, it could take years for the UK to get back into the WTO.

[melvinmelvin]

10 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Actually, WTO rules don't just enter into force by default. I used to think that too, But as that article in the Financial Times pointed out, it could take years for the UK to get back into the WTO.

right,

 

and now ask yourself why hasn't the UK government started to prepare for WTO long time ago?

 

 

[bomber]

8 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Actually, WTO rules don't just enter into force by default. I used to think that too, But as that article in the Financial Times pointed out, it could take years for the UK to get back into the WTO.

and what happens in the meantime,how about an extended easter bank holiday ???? the impact of 2 or 3 days of snow takes its toll on the UK economy,what hope is there if we have to wait 2 years to join the WTO bunch of losers,the first set of figure's after this scenario will be interesting and horrific

[bomber]

55 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Oh, GDP growth now? Southern European unemployment rates, which were being discussed, are doing a whole lot worse. 

spain and portugal are only 2 nations of the 27 or 7-8% of the EU,they were never industrial powers like the UK once WAS,my partner is portuguese and tells me there is work there despite what the figures say and there is a big black economy.

[elliss]

16 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

using your post as vehicle only, can't make a stand alone comment

 

David Graeber, LS of E claims that about 37% of the UK workforce

claims that they are doing meaningless jobs that could just as well be discontinued.

 

They spend most of the workday pretending to appear busy.

 

 

  One must say , a dam site better , than being  on the dole and claiming benefits , paid for by UK tax payers , not many of us left .

     FYI , UK  job market , has  created  new jobs  , for  our Graduates ,  making sandwiches , Work experience , my arse .. 

[elliss]

9 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

you are too negative

 

didna you mention altruism?

 

          Is one allowed to mention JC ,  Jeremy Corbyn on this forum,  What  ever happened to freedom of speech .

                  Maybe  that is much the same  as democracy .    I once  had a dream ...

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by elliss

[My Thai Life]

25 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

right,

 

and now ask yourself why hasn't the UK government started to prepare for WTO long time ago?

 

I'm not sure if you are being facetious or not. (1) the UK started preparations with the WTO for independent post-EU trading a year or two ago, these preparations are proceeding well (2) the UK can trade post-Brexit in the short to mid-term without WTO finalisation, and of course without interference from the EU (we all know May's "deal" will be defeated). 

 

The UK cannot finalise a new trade status with any non-EU nation untll the UK has agreed its relationship with the EU. This is a good reason for leaving the EU as quickly as possible on WTO terms (sometimes called "no deal"). This is the quickest way for the UK to become independent in its trade policy.

 

The UK's international trade, including that with the EU, will not stop on 29 March 2019, regardless of the terms we have with the EU.

 

PS. WTO is much more flexible than the EU - WTO supports free trade, while EU is a protectionist cartel.

[bristolboy]

8 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I'm not sure if you are being facetious or not. (1) the UK started preparations with the WTO for independent post-EU trading a year or two ago, these preparations are proceeding well (2) the UK can trade post-Brexit in the short to mid-term without WTO finalisation, and of course without interference from the EU (we all know May's "deal" will be defeated). 

 

The UK cannot finalise a new trade status with any non-EU nation untll the UK has agreed its relationship with the EU. This is a good reason for leaving the EU as quickly as possible on WTO terms (sometimes called "no deal"). This is the quickest way for the UK to become independent in its trade policy.

 

The UK's international trade, including that with the EU, will not stop on 29 March 2019, regardless of the terms we have with the EU.

 

PS. WTO is much more flexible than the EU - WTO supports free trade, while EU is a protectionist cartel.

Are you sure about that? It looks to me like the head of the WTO disagrees

WTO warns on disruption to UK of no-deal Brexit

The World Trade Organization has warned about potential disruption for the UK from a no-deal Brexit, saying that it is “very unlikely” that the government will have agreed tariffs and quotas with all other member countries by next March.

 

Hardline Brexiters have pointed to the WTO as a safety net that would allow trade to continue, with additional barriers, even if Britain left the EU without a deal.

 

But Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the WTO, said on Friday that other countries would look to take advantage of the UK’s position, complicating or preventing agreement on some points.

https://www.ft.com/content/4f0ea43e-a77e-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f

[SheungWan]

16 hours ago, SheungWan said:

"If we take Professor Hayek literally, a fascist dictatorship of some kind should be regarded as the necessary pre-condition (along with monetarism) of a ‘free society’." Nicholas Kaldor, letter to The Times, October 18, 1978. ......

So now readers have their clue (other than the Thatcherism link) why the forum Hard Brexiteers subscribing to Conspiracy Theories, like to roll out Hayek now and then. Trigger for the Nationalist Revolution they would like to have.

 

7 hours ago, aright said:

Is that the best you can do?  A letter to the Times, qualified by the word "literally" to disparage a man who was appointed a member of the Order of the Companions of Honour on the advice of Margaret Thatcher, who received the US Presidential Medal of Freedom from George W Bush and was the first person to receive the Hanns Martin Schleyer Prize. You run true to form, like so many Remainers, not showing respect to anyone of an opposite opinion, regardless of achievement.

I guess too lazy to reference Nicholas Kaldor, the writer of that letter, but then I have accused Hard Brexiteers here of being intellectually lazy, so shouldn't really be surprised. Good effort though trying to kick the Pinochet connection into the long grass.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicholas_Kaldor

[tebee]

Norway considers the UK as a possible abusive partner 

 

What have we done to our reputation abroad?

 

 

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, tebee said:

Norway considers the UK as a possible abusive partner 

 

What have we done to our reputation abroad?

 

 

I think I'm in love.

[mommysboy]

7 minutes ago, tebee said:

Norway considers the UK as a possible abusive partner 

 

What have we done to our reputation abroad?

 

 

Fair comment, except for the abusive partner analogy.

 

It's the small boy's club really, and is not suitable for the UK.

 

It's also good to know who your friends are for future reference.

 

 

[mommysboy]

13 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Are you sure about that? It looks to me like the head of the WTO disagrees

WTO warns on disruption to UK of no-deal Brexit

The World Trade Organization has warned about potential disruption for the UK from a no-deal Brexit, saying that it is “very unlikely” that the government will have agreed tariffs and quotas with all other member countries by next March.

 

Hardline Brexiters have pointed to the WTO as a safety net that would allow trade to continue, with additional barriers, even if Britain left the EU without a deal.

 

But Roberto Azevêdo, the head of the WTO, said on Friday that other countries would look to take advantage of the UK’s position, complicating or preventing agreement on some points.

https://www.ft.com/content/4f0ea43e-a77e-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f

 

Seriously, I can think of some benefits in being the lone wolf.  It could be quite liberating.  

[Guest]

5 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

- WTO is available now - this is an important point - one thing we can all agree on is that much of the last 2 years has been wasted - WTO would bring that to an immediate end

- WTO would put the UK in a much stronger negotiating position for future EU talks.

 

Simply having a bit of fun with these 'facts' ????

 

WTO with the EU negotiated rules is clearly not available for UK. 

 

EU has the negotiation power by brilliance of thought and power of 500 million people. UK has neither. 

UK has 60 million people with mediocre or lesser folks who mainly fight each other in every chance they have.

 

That's the British mix of bringing out the mediocre, yet the loudest people on the front. Well, you'll lose.

 

How would WTO rules would be a strong position for UK in any case? You do know that you are a minor power at this point? Do You? I mean one tenth of the power of EU. Important, but not that important. 

[bristolboy]

Just now, mommysboy said:

 

Seriously, I can think of some benefits in being the lone wolf.  It could be quite liberating.  

As the head of the PTO pointed out, the UK wouldn't exactly be a lone wolf. It would have lots of wolves close by but they wouldn't be a member of its pack and they would be inclined to exploit its weakness.

What would the benefits of being that lone wolf be? 

[SheungWan]

9 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Fair comment, except for the abusive partner analogy.

It's the small boy's club really, and is not suitable for the UK.

It's also good to know who your friends are for future reference.

That will be a long list.

[mommysboy]

2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

As the head of the PTO pointed out, the UK wouldn't exactly be a lone wolf. It would have lots of wolves close by but they wouldn't be a member of its pack and they would be inclined to exploit its weakness.

What would the benefits of being that lone wolf be? 

That requires a bit of thinking outside the box. It's very disruptive to have such a big economy outside the normal mechanisms. But I can't imagine such a big beast could be prevented from trading as it wants for a while. Might be what the world needs.  Could start a trend.  One thing for certain, USA won't be slow to cotton on. There could be unlikely bedfellows.  All conjecture I agree.