Urgent: Wissanu, EC to discuss election delay

[ZeVonderBearz]

The friendly reminder tells you alot about this here nation. 

[Eligius]

4 hours ago, madmitch said:

 

 

Any other events likely to cause a delay?

Other events? As has already been hinted by other posters (and as I myself have said numerous times in the past), the junta will keep certain sad, lachrymose events up their sleeve for use on a rainy day ...

 

Also, note that Wissanu already is saying that after the marvellous happy event of May, there will be further related mini-celebrations, etc, which will extend for a good half month. You can bet your bottom dollar (or baht) that that will be extended even further. It would be very unfitting to have an election too soon in that time frame. Disrespectful.

 

So .... the patient Thais can continue to exercise their great patience for a long time to come yet. Good for them - keeps them in their place and aware of their position in the grand scheme of things ...

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Eligius

[chickenslegs]

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

Well, sure....

Tradition. That ain't disappearing soon.

 

Same as it ever was. 

Does anyone here study real Thai contemporary history or able to connect the simple dots? 

I'm sure there are plenty of Thais (and foreigners) who are well aware of recent history and current political situation.

 

A quick Google search will reveal some horrifying facts about the consequences of criticizing the establishment.

 

However, the barbaric LM and criminal defamation laws here are serving their intended purpose - preventing open discussion and democratic change.

 

Not many people are willing to risk a lengthy jail term or a savage beating for questioning the status quo here - and I don't blame them.

[zzaa09]

27 minutes ago, chickenslegs said:

I'm sure there are plenty of Thais (and foreigners) who are well aware of recent history and current political situation.

 

A quick Google search will reveal some horrifying facts about the consequences of criticizing the establishment.

 

However, the barbaric LM and criminal defamation laws here are serving their intended purpose - preventing open discussion and democratic change.

 

Not many people are willing to risk a lengthy jail term or a savage beating for questioning the status quo here - and I don't blame them.

Yep...

Yet, we'll continue to discuss surface and meaningless politics in a highly rhetorical manner.

As if any of this opinionated punditry might make a dent. 

[bangrak]

5 hours ago, madmitch said:

I assume this means the date of the election will be announced prior to 9th May and not the election taking place as that would be an impossibility.

 

Like everyone else, totally unsurprised. I wonder how much input the Government had in the choice of date?

 

Any other events likely to cause a delay?

'madmitch' (long time no see), I most agree with your 'analyse', but, IMHO, it goes further: when I 'decript' the byzantine EC rules right, the election, itself, must take place within 150 days after the law was passed! Meaning then, as you wrote, there will be a 'non possumus' invoked by the EC. With as a direct consequence the election law being declared nil and void, and all the thing having to be re-started from square one! As it will clearly not be, erm, 'possible' to reshedule the election to an earlier day than Feb 24 that seems to be what will be announced on a later date...

The whole reason behind this, IMHO, is way far remote from the person of His Majesty the King, and so my following comment is, by its nature, at the antipods of LM!

The military aeropage of the NCPO 'could' have got the 'feeling' that the 'popularity' of the in-spe lifetime PM usurpator was way below what the green men and their supporters had expected, one, and two, that the antagonist reactions of most political parties, way further than PT 1 to 4, was so clearly expressed that even 250 military nominated pawns in the Senate would not be a guarantee that Mr Prayuth would be able to gather a parliamentary majority behind his name...

So this 'perfect excuse', which was IMO for a long time already kept as a hidden trump (a 5th ace?) in some gold clad uniforms' sleeves: it's not us, we acted in good faith, but His majesty's Coronation changed the hand, nothing we can do about it... And (undertone): don't dare to comment or make a fuss about it, as WE could put LM charges on you.

Agatha Christies' novels were all about 'perfect crimes', which were in the end exposed, the guilty punished. Her novels had a lot in common with Siamese shadow puppetry, where it's more about shades than about light, ...and nothing is in the end what it seemed...

Edited January 3, 2019 by bangrak

[bangrak]

Remember the true reasons behind the timing of the 2014 'coup', and it had nothing to do with Shins' red terrorists' violences nor Suthep's PRDC popular movement, not even with Yingluck's cataclismic mis-administration, but with a very dramatic utterly unauspicious and sad event, alas, soon expected to happen, and the military, and their '1 percenters' backers, wanting, not just to 'secure' the situation for their profit, but to gain control of a level which was till then unreachable to them.

When what I write hereabove would be correct, then today's announcement could fit perfectly in this new-er organisation's pattern. 

[sjaak327]

15 minutes ago, bangrak said:

'madmitch' (long time no see), I most agree with your 'analyse', but, IMHO, it goes further: when I 'decript' the byzantine EC rules right, the election, itself, must take place within 150 days after the law was passed! Meaning then, as you wrote, there will be a 'non possumus' invoked by the EC. With as a direct consequence the election law being declared nil and void, and all the thing having to be re-started from square one! As it will clearly not be, erm, 'possible' to reshedule the election to an earlier day than Feb 24 that seems to be what will be announced on a later date...

The whole reason behind this, IMHO, is way far remote from the person of His Majesty the King, and so my following comment is, by its nature, at the antipods of LM!

The military aeropage of the NCPO 'could' have got the 'feeling' that the 'popularity' of the in-spe lifetime PM usurpator was way below what the green men and their supporters had expected, one, and two, that the antagonist reactions of most political parties, way further than PT 1 to 4, was so clearly expressed that even 250 military nominated pawns in the Senate would not be a guarantee that Mr Prayuth would be able to gather a parliamentary majority behind his name...

So this 'perfect excuse', which was IMO for a long time already kept as a hidden trump (a 5th ace?) in some gold clad uniforms' sleeves: it's not us, we acted in good faith, but His majesty's Coronation changed the hand, nothing we can do about it... And (undertone): don't dare to comment or make a fuss about it, as WE could put LM charges on you.

Agatha Christies' novels were all about 'perfect crimes', which were in the end exposed, the guilty punished. Her novels had a lot in common with Siamese shadow puppetry, where it's more about shades than about light, ...and nothing is in the end what it seemed...

Sure, problem is, I fail to see how a postponement would actually change Mr Prayuth popularity. And, it surely contradicts the laws they themselves created (not that following the laws was of any concern before, remember the coup), yet it shows them as utterly incompetent. Failed to take the coronation into consideration ? I bet it will hurt Mr Prayuth's popularity even more with this action. 

[HalfLight]

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

Back to our independent lives, per usual...

 

Well, sort of. I have to say I am *really* pissed off at the UK conversion rate. When I first ventured forth to LOS, the quid was worth 63 baht. Now 40 and some loose change, and that;s the market rate not the bank buying rate.

 

Even reneging on election promises doesn't make much diff. Who does a man have to maim?

 

Tragic.

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by HalfLight

[bangrak]

1 minute ago, sjaak327 said:

Sure, problem is, I fail to see how a postponement would actually change Mr Prayuth popularity. And, it surely contradicts the laws they themselves created (not that following the laws was of any concern before, remember the coup), yet it shows them as utterly incompetent. Failed to take the coronation into consideration ? I bet it will hurt Mr Prayuth's popularity even more with this action. 

'sjaak327', 'they' can plan, hope, to find other, more successful (and even more expensive) populist measures to draw popular support for Mr Prayuth (or even replace him after some dramatic event). It does contradict their laws but they could have 'mis-evaluated' the political, and popular, resent about the man they pushed at the front. ...And, IMO, for sure they took the coronation very much into consideration, ...in the sharade they planned, as shows today. As for Mr Prayuth's popularity, let us hope you are right. 

[HalfLight]

10 minutes ago, sjaak327 said:

Sure, problem is, I fail to see how a postponement would actually change Mr Prayuth popularity. And, it surely contradicts the laws they themselves created (not that following the laws was of any concern before, remember the coup), yet it shows them as utterly incompetent. Failed to take the coronation into consideration ? I bet it will hurt Mr Prayuth's popularity even more with this action. 

Yep. I suspect the only option of staying in power that Prayuth will find is to run another coup. All this guff about 'studying the party policies to see which one he'll join' is just that - guff. He already knows which one he was intending to join, now he's assessing the likelihood of an electoral win. True he can run another coup but that's not a risk-free option these days, and Prem's close to shuffling off. In any case, having to coup again involves quite a lot of losing face, something no Thai will willingly risk. You know how these people are...

 

 

[zzaa09]

6 hours ago, HalfLight said:

 

Well, sort of. I have to say I am *really* pissed off at the UK conversion rate. When I first ventured forth to LOS, the quid was worth 63 baht. Now 40 and some loose change, and that;s the market rate not the bank buying rate.

 

Even reneging on election promises doesn't make much diff. Who does a man have to maim?

 

Tragic.

 

 

 

Might help if you weren't terribly angst and dependent on the highly made-up and phony monetary exchange rate.

[Lupatria]

17 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Quite some time back it had been announced that the coronation had to take place before the election, and I was a little puzzled that no date had been set for that. However, we are now faced with yet another delay. Who could possibly have thought that might happen, eh?

From the junta list 100 reasons for election delay

 

99. unfavorable weather conditions

100. bad predictions of fortune tellers

 

The pesky westerner wizards of election in the UK explain how to do it right in their “General Election for Dummies” guide:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/no1parlyelectionsweb.pdf

What factors will influence the timing of a general election?
On 28 March 1979 the Conservative Opposition defeated the then Labour Government by 311-310 votes on the motion “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”. Parliament was dissolved on 7 April and the election held on 3 May. 
How long is an election campaign? 
A general election campaign usually lasts for about three weeks. In 2005 Parliament was dissolved on 11 April and the general election took place on 5 May.
 

Btw- I find the term "Urgent" in the headline a little confusing.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Lupatria

[GarryP]

18 hours ago, GarryP said:

Well if the election is delayed, this is a perfect excuse. No one will dare question it out loud.  But it could backfire and increase resentment. 

Happy to report that I am wrong. Joe Public is starting to complain. Last night the number one trending hashtag for Thailand on Twitter is the equivalent of Delaymother******! or Postpone your ****ing mother! 

 

All kinds of excuses and theories are being thrown about for the delay, some of which seem to make sense while others are way off the sensibility scale. I think all we can conclude with any kind of certainty is that Prayuth will still be the sitting PM at the time of the coronation. Think he should invest in some adult diapers for the event to prevent ecstasy stains causing embarrassment.    

[Eric Loh]

6 minutes ago, GarryP said:

Happy to report that I am wrong. Joe Public is starting to complain. Last night the number one trending hashtag for Thailand on Twitter is the equivalent of Delaymother******! or Postpone your ****ing mother! 

 

All kinds of excuses and theories are being thrown about for the delay, some of which seem to make sense while others are way off the sensibility scale. I think all we can conclude with any kind of certainty is that Prayuth will still be the sitting PM at the time of the coronation. Think he should invest in some adult diapers for the event to prevent ecstasy stains causing embarrassment.    

I read from a report that the junta may reconsider delaying if there are fierce public backlash. Some dates were reported that will not clash with the coronation and all in March which meant just a very short delay. Whether Prayut will preside at time of coronation is still up in the air and ultimately will reveal a lot on the 2 most powerful institutions relationship. 

[DM07]

So...a coronation, that will be held 2,5 months after the planned election, is enough reason to cancel said election!

Aha!

Got it!

Makes all perfect sense but comes so tooootally surprising and unexpected!

[nong38]

There is about 10 weeks between the two events surely that should not be a problem, if, however some think it is I have two thoughts. Why was the date in May chosen, it could have been earlier or later? Secondly if 10 weeks is deemed to close then I assume that 10 weeks after would also be a bit tight so that takes us well into July or later, a far cry from the 24th of February. Foreign countries, especially ones with a working democratic system will this with dismay and wonder if they can believe anything that current administration says?

I doubt this will be a vote winner.

[GarryP]

Could it be because it will take time to validate the vote and further time for the parties to negotiate alliances and a government to be formally established. 

[lannarebirth]

What am I missing? It seems to me the May coronation would be cause to speed up the election rather than delay it to a time nearer the cornation.

[ratcatcher]

[HalfLight]

9 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Might help if you weren't terribly angst and dependent on the highly made-up and phony monetary exchange rate.

 

Not so much angst truth to tell, as annoyed. Though I fail to see how not being annoyed would help the exchange rate.

 

Yes, the exchange rate is fake and built up by booted and suited yuppies, but that's the nature of the beast. With respect, the fact that it's a put-up job doesn't help my pension amount. Angst or not.

Edited January 4, 2019 by HalfLight

[HalfLight]

4 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

What am I missing? It seems to me the May coronation would be cause to speed up the election rather than delay it to a time nearer the cornation.

An excuse does not have to make sense to you and me, so long as it makes sense to the 50 million plus Thais whose IQ is less than 100. And frankly, putting one's head down the toilet and flushing it would make sense to them. Oh, sorry, most of those don't have flushing toilets. Perhaps they kept putting their head down them?

[zzaa09]

5 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

What am I missing? It seems to me the May coronation would be cause to speed up the election rather than delay it to a time nearer the cornation.

Basic Thai Government and Politics 101.

Any enacted officialdom requires approval, decree and blessings from the sitting King. 

 

Technically, he has not officially and ceremonially been honoured with this illustrious title - 

Therefore, anything pursued in a parliamentary procedure manner is nil and void. 

Thailand's Constitutional Monarchy is heavily dominate and controlled by royal influence.

Tradition.

[fforest1]

So does any one here have a list or idea how many times the election has been delayed now?.....I have kind of lost count myself.....

[JAG]

7 hours ago, nong38 said:

There is about 10 weeks between the two events surely that should not be a problem, if, however some think it is I have two thoughts. Why was the date in May chosen, it could have been earlier or later? Secondly if 10 weeks is deemed to close then I assume that 10 weeks after would also be a bit tight so that takes us well into July or later, a far cry from the 24th of February. Foreign countries, especially ones with a working democratic system will this with dismay and wonder if they can believe anything that current administration says?

I doubt this will be a vote winner.

As far as " vote winners" are concerned, they really don't care and/or understand what any foreign countries may think. After all, they presume to speak for those countries to the Thai people. How many times have we heard a minister state that the President's of Ruritania and Atlantis completely understand Thailand's situation, and agree with the junta's solutions?

 

The only "vote loser" would be sanctions which hurt the junta and their backers in their (foreign) pockets. That would almost certainly backfire on those of us who live here.

 

As for winning and losing domestic votes, well they have manufactured an electoral system which allows them to control when those votes may be cast, how and by who they can be campaigned for, and retain the power to disqualify at will, before and after the votes are cast. And if despite all that should there be an embarrassing result, well we always have a tame senate to overule the elected majority.

 

Seen from that (the present regime's) perspective, why care what anyone thinks. This delay will be followed by others, ad infinitum. The Quartermasters Stores is full of delays...

Edited January 4, 2019 by JAG

[zzaa09]

35 minutes ago, fforest1 said:

So does any one here have a list or idea how many times the election has been delayed now?.....I have kind of lost count myself.....

Does it really matter?

 

The elective process only significantly serves the elite, as it always has. 

[DrTuner]

And then you can delay the coronation and then you can delay the election and then .. nice little racket.

[zzaa09]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

And then you can delay the coronation and then you can delay the election and then .. nice little racket.

And few outsiders really recognize the extensive racket......that is universally worldwide in scope.