Thai Baht VS American Dollar

[crees]

I've read many articles about where the Baht is going to stabilize, but so far, these stories from the Bangkok Post do not seem to reflect on what is really happening. I'm not a banker, … just John Doe who is wondering what to do. Someone on this forum mentioned gold as being a good way to go. I've noticed two categories for buying gold, one is jewelry and I think the other is gold bars. Any input would be helpful, like the best place to buy gold and is it a sound investment? Thankyou

[DrJack54]

Belongs in finance

[crees]

Thank you 

Edited February 6, 2019 by crees
Thank You

[Pib]

Gold is like the stock market....it's just another commodity that goes up "and down."  

 

[Thailand J]

17 hours ago, crees said:

is it a sound investment?

as with other investments, you have to know what you are doing. If you had to ask, it's NOT for you.

 

In case if you want to invest in gold. Just buy into a gold exchange trade fund in your brokerage account, such as SPDR Gold Shares, GLD.

No need to rent a vault, NO need to worry where to keep your gold bars. ????

 

[crees]

1 hour ago, Thailand J said:

as with other investments, you have to know what you are doing. If you had to ask, it's NOT for you.

 

In case if you want to invest in gold. Just buy into a gold exchange trade fund in your brokerage account, such as SPDR Gold Shares, GLD.

No need to rent a vault, NO need to worry where to keep your gold bars. ????

 

You are so right, I'm an ex-Marine … not ex -Banker … Thank You

[thrilled]

I believe the 1st part you were talking about baht and the $ dollar.I saw it at 35 to 36 baht I believe around 2014 or 2015.You were getting a deal.Now at 30-31 not so much.It averages out to 32-34.I just take it ss it comes.

[zib]

It will come down eventually. Baht is overvalued atm. I've been opening foreign deposit accounts with my bank for a few days now. Exchanging most of my THB to USD,EUR,SEK. SEK is just dropping like a rock.

Edited February 7, 2019 by zib
add

[NCC1701A]

On 2/6/2019 at 1:31 PM, crees said:

just John Doe who is wondering what to do.

open a Thai bank account and fill it up with baht?

[1FinickyOne]

Dear John Doe - even the bankers don't know...

 

by definition, markets settle at market value... that being the point at which the 'bets' are on the table... 50/50... all you can do is think you might be able to guess the direction of future sentiment... if you have money, I guess it is a game you are forced to play in one way or the other... not buying gold is holding a currency or buying something else... 

 

as the rest of us, good luck... 

[arithai12]

1 hour ago, zib said:

It will come down eventually. Baht is overvalued atm. I've been opening foreign deposit accounts with my bank for a few days now. Exchanging most of my THB to USD,EUR,SEK. SEK is just dropping like a rock.

The key word is "eventually". Of course it will go up and down, in small terms, but I think we can forget the good times when one Euro was 50 Baht.

The Baht is NOT overvalued, it is strong because of the fundamentals of the Thai economy and because of the large influx of foreign currency. Check the current account for Thailand, check the number of tourists.

[Nyezhov]

Its worked for me so far, I stocked up when it hit almost 34 a few months back. Got to restock a bit more but Im leaving soon so...

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, thrilled said:

I believe the 1st part you were talking about baht and the $ dollar.I saw it at 35 to 36 baht I believe around 2014 or 2015.You were getting a deal.Now at 30-31 not so much.It averages out to 32-34.I just take it ss it comes.

when the rate was 55 baht to the dollar people were telling me not to buy baht as next week it will go to 60... 

 

the most important part of the equation is the purchasing power that you have for the baht... 

[Ulic]

While I would love to see the baht weaken, with all the foreign tourist and retirees, lady sponsors bringing/sending foreign currency, Thailands foreign currency account balance is exceptionally strong. So unless the Junta buys more submarines, tanks, planes, and highspeed trains I don't see the baht devaluing. The strength of the baht is about the Thailands foreign currency account balance, not the strength of its economy per se. As with all predictions up or down in the stock market or currency market, they will all come true. The real question is when and by how much. If/when tourism drops significantly and foreign currencies dry up, the value of the baht will fall. Many say tourism is down significantly now. When this is reflected in the foreign currency account balance, the baht will weaken. 

[Brunolem]

7 hours ago, crees said:

You are so right, I'm an ex-Marine … not ex -Banker … Thank You

Don't buy gold as an investment, but rather as an insurance. 

 

Avoid jewelry because you pay more for the work involved, and then you get a heavy discount when selling back. 

 

The best are gold coins, easy to keep, transport and sell if needed. 

 

As for the USD vs THB, if you live in Thailand and want to play it safe, better hold THB and avoid surprises. 

 

It is impossible to say how things will evolve, because there are no real financial markets anymore. 

 

When institutions like the Swiss National Bank (SNB) print Swiss Francs hands over fists, in order to lower its value against the USD, then use this "fake" money to buy everything they can put their hands on in the US stock market, what does it say about the dollar or the stock market? Nothing! It is just the reflection of the madness of men... 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Brunolem

[Kurtf]

Crees,

  Gold is not really an investment. It is an insurance policy that preserves wealth and purchasing power against fiat currencies. What are fiat currencies? Any and all paper money that loses purchasing power through inflation. If you expect that the stock market is in a bubble that is about to burst in the near future, (as I do) then gold is a good place to store some of your wealth. Because when the stock market crashes as it is bound to do, the price of gold will invariably go up since people/investors turn to gold to protect themselves and their wealth. JMHO Ooo Rah. Semper Fi

Edited February 7, 2019 by Kurtf

[crees]

WOW, Thank you all for the education, I'll never be a banker … but I'm a little closer now to making my plan come true

[roquefort]

9 hours ago, crees said:

You are so right, I'm an ex-Marine … not ex -Banker … Thank You

There are better ways to hold gold than ETFs which are just paper instruments. You have no guarantee that they are backed by actual gold bullion.

 

PM me for details.

[Thaidream]

Read a few predictions indicating about a 20% loss in the value of  Dollar/Pound/Euro.. In a year, I am planning on a value of 29 Baht. to the Dollar.

Foreign inflow will remain strong except for one caveat- this next election- if it goes off without any instability and the  winner is able to form a stable government- the Baht remains strong. If there is instability; protesters in the street and changes of Government- all bets are of.

[phkauf]

Google Warren Buffet and Gold to get a sense of what he thinks about it, Hint: he's not a fan.

It doesn't have many other uses other than to just sit around and look pretty. It doesn't have any return in terms of dividends or interest. If you hold physical it costs money to hold it securely.

As others have mentioned Gold is a good place to stash money if you fear an economic meltdown or geopolitical uncertainty. Since it really doesn't have many industrial uses like other commodities, it's value is based on what the next guy will pay you for it.

As to the USD v. THB, I have no clue. There are so many factors at work in the currency markets now, it's hard to figure out. My sense is the THB is overvalued, but benefits by being the best house in the neighborhood. USD should get stronger, but Trump et.al. would prefer to keep it weak for trade purposes.

[johnnysunshine]

Crees, I was concerned when I saw this as I have been a gold investor for 20 years and as Brunoleum, I believe offered some good perspectives with his statements:

"The best are gold coins, easy to keep, transport and sell if needed. 

As for the USD vs THB, if you live in Thailand and want to play it safe, better hold THB and avoid surprises. 

It is impossible to say how things will evolve because there are no real financial markets anymore"

I agree and would never buy a gold bar to lug around.  Hard to buy a coke with.   You can get coins worth one ounce (about $1,300) and even half that size in most gold stores which are prevalent in the Warorot Market.  Thai baht and US dollar are fiat currency which means they make good kindling when times are tough like in past Germany in the Weimar Republic when they had so little value, they would burn the currency to keep the house warm...which is what actually happened after WWII.   

When I bought my first gold it was $300/ounce and now it is worth $1300.   I believe it will go up and up as the global financial system reveals how weak it is with about 240 trillion dollars of debt hanging out.   Look how long gold has held up so well for the last 2-3000 years.   It's going up as we write and Central banks have just increased the amount they own substantially as of recent.

Crypto will have its permanent day in the sun also in time!

[Brunolem]

14 minutes ago, johnnysunshine said:

.   

When I bought my first gold it was $300/ounce and now it is worth $1300.   I believe it will go up and up as the global financial system reveals how weak it is with about 240 trillion dollars of debt hanging out.   Look how long gold has held up so well for the last 2-3000 years.   

When money became fiat, on August 15th, 1971, one ounce of gold was worth 35 dollars. 

Today, it is 1,300 dollars, and that is because the price of gold is suppressed by the fiat money supporters, a.k.a. central banks and their henchmen. 

 

Since 2008, the world has embarked in a money creation frenzy, in order to try to save what is left of a moribund and corrupt system, based on the belief that wealth can be created out of a money printing machine. 

 

The increasing geopolitical tensions felt these days are reminiscent of the situation in the mid to late 1930s, when the world was also mirred in a financial and economic crisis, called depression. 

 

Today, those who look at the numbers are convinced that everything is fine... but that is because they have never heard about the Potemkin, and looked what's behind the numbers... 

[Thomas J]

On 2/6/2019 at 1:31 PM, crees said:

I've read many articles about where the Baht is going to stabilize, but so far, these stories from the Bangkok Post do not seem to reflect on what is really happening. I'm not a banker, … just John Doe who is wondering what to do. Someone on this forum mentioned gold as being a good way to go. I've noticed two categories for buying gold, one is jewelry and I think the other is gold bars. Any input would be helpful, like the best place to buy gold and is it a sound investment? Thankyou

I am a former banker and worked in bank investments for over 40 years.  Gold is a commodity just like, coal, oil, soybeans, pork etc.  As a commodity it does not generate any interest or dividend income like a bond or a stock.  Gold has long been considered a save haven during times of unrest.  World War II would be a good example.  The U.S. Dollar just like any other currency goes up and down in value relative to other currencies in the world.  A good deal of that fluctuation centers around interest rates and safety.  If interest rates are high in the U.K. the Sterling will rise. In times of uncertainty, strong currencies like the U.S. Dollar, Euro, and Sterling will rise relative to currencies in less stable countries.  At the present time, the U.S. dollar has weakened relative to many currencies including the baht.  That will shift particularly as dollar inflows into Thailand decrease during the non-peak tourist season.  Gold held physically represents a problem.  It is expensive to maintain in a secure vault.  It is difficult to sell since you then have to retrieve the gold and then ship it to the buyer.  Commissions on gold can be high and lastly when you receive it, how can you ascertain that it is real gold.  My advise is if you want to invest in gold do so via a gold fund that holds the physical gold and you can easily sell it via an exchange.  My real advise is don't invest in gold unless you think we are entering a time of high inflation which will depreciate paper assets like stocks, bonds, and currencies.  The U.S. Stock Market 500 Index Fund, or the RSP equal weighted 500 index fund have produced annual returns of 10% plus annually and pay dividends that rise each year.  Low risk if you have a longer time horizon.  

[zib]

4 hours ago, arithai12 said:

The key word is "eventually". Of course it will go up and down, in small terms, but I think we can forget the good times when one Euro was 50 Baht.

The Baht is NOT overvalued, it is strong because of the fundamentals of the Thai economy and because of the large influx of foreign currency. Check the current account for Thailand, check the number of tourists.

Thailand is 65% exports. This is tanking exports. So eventually (soon) the BoT will intervene and devalue the currency. If your currency is killing 65% of your earn it is extremely overvalued. And even if some people might disagree the exporters call the shots so something will happen.

 

And imho the "large influx of foreign currency" doesn't exist. The property market is tanking because who wants to buy property at these high prices. The tourism might balance it out a bit but those are mostly down too.

[Thomas J]

40 minutes ago, zib said:

Thailand is 65% exports. This is tanking exports. So eventually (soon) the BoT will intervene and devalue the currency. If your currency is killing 65% of your earn it is extremely overvalued. And even if some people might disagree the exporters call the shots so something will happen.

 

And imho the "large influx of foreign currency" doesn't exist. The property market is tanking because who wants to buy property at these high prices. The tourism might balance it out a bit but those are mostly down too.

The "marketplace" adjusts currencies over time.  You are correct if the Thai Baht is too strong then the price of buying Thai products will be high and hence it will depress exports.  That will mean that Thailand will have a large supply of product but fewer customers.  Over the long term that will depress prices on those commodities it exports in order to sell them.  Interest rates and safety concerns have far more to do with currency fluctuations than any other factor.  If interest rates are favorable in the U.S. foreign buyers will convert into U.S. dollars.  That will depress those currencies and strengthen the U.S dollar.  If there is world unrest, currencies such as the U.S. Dollar, Euro, and Sterling will be considered safer and again, foreigners will exchange their currencies to buy those.  It is a supply and demand phenomena.  When you have more buyers the price goes up.  Right now interest rates in the USA are lousy and there is no world crisis causing a flight to safety.  It is not the Thai Baht that is strong.  It is the U.S. dollar that is weak. 

[ghworker2010]

I bought gold last year at the perth mint. Its guaranteed/ backed by the WA govt. you can do it online

 

listent to this recent podcast: I think its a good time to buy if central banks are buying don't you?

 

 

 

[Sandman77]

Once I read a article that the baht currency is connected and paired to US dollar value 1:1 since year 1950 before it was the Japan yen , i think the tourism sectors value is even more higher then the export itself right ?


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[bomber]

buy pounds and wait for brexit then change to baht you wont regret it,a geezer down the pub told me

[Johnnyngai]

I bought 30 one oz American eagle coin when it was 300usd each.  

Where in Thailand is a good place to sell a few ?  

How much commission do I have to pay ? 

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Johnnyngai said:

I bought 30 one oz American eagle coin when it was 300usd each.  

Where in Thailand is a good place to sell a few ?  

How much commission do I have to pay ? 

 

Gold shops happily buy them, but unless you need the cash, now is not the good time to sell...