Thai elections: Odds against Pheu Thai

[MikeN]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

You think he will win if this is a free and fair election? He was gifted the election thru fraudulent laws, crony election agency, pre election campaigning for last 5 years and buying votes with populist policies using tax payer money. 

Just like every other governing party in every other election here....

[Andycoops]

7 hours ago, Inn Between said:

Will the senate that was was selected by Prayut Chan-o-cha be the ones to determine if he continues as the PM?

Yes

[Matt96]

Just now, GreasyFingers said:

Read some articles in other papers.

its not a proof

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, MikeN said:

Just like every other governing party in every other election here....

I may be naive but can governing party tear up the constitution and re-write the law to disadvantage political parties? 

[NanLaew]

3 minutes ago, robblok said:

So what, even if I add the constituency votes from the FFW party to those of the PTP then they still preformed worse then before.  So even with a correction like that they preformed worse. 

 

Must be hard to accept or something. Besides it was the PTP themselves that decided not to run in those constituencies. They gambled wrong.

But for clarity in this renewed debate, we have already removed the Thai Raksa Chart AND Future First imponderables from the equation and simply stated that across the board and before the voting started, PTP were around 30% less visible than in previous contests. Not too hard to work out that if you simply field less candidates, your success rate will drop. They're -49% losses over 2011 isn't 'huge' when you do consider the uneven playing field presented to all but one, brand new political party.

 

Maybe they hadn't gambled on their TRC proxy shooting themselves in the foot with their fatal PM's nomination but based on the number of candidates they themselves presented to the electorate before the polling booths opened, their losses aren't unexpected. Personally. I think they had already allowed for the worst-case scenario of the EC ruling to ban the TRC. They took the risk and the losses incurred are acceptable. Note that a certain personage had a really wonderful time at the Thaksin siblings wedding in Hong Kong on the Friday before the election while Elvis, after having the 'last word', chose to leave the building.

 

Nice to see you may be getting over your Thaksinphobia and beginning to get your head around the significance of the Democrat implosion though. They are down a whopping -79% on their 2011 showing. Maybe so far gone that even PPP won't touch them with a bargepole? Ideally PPP would need a bigger partner to make a meaningful, working coalition but when their leader only sees the most important thing is ensuring he keeps the big chair and rule by dictat, then is doesn't matter if the lower house wallows in self-importance and stymies any meaningful legislation. Does the new Constitution have anything similar to the US's Executive Orders? Or maybe that's what Article 44 is all about.

 

Sorry to disappoint you but there's nothing hard for me to accept as I have no dogs in this fight. Thaksin isn't anyone I would consider a good or better statesman either. Just try to curb your enthusiasm.

[GreasyFingers]

42 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

It was Prayuts lot buying the votes this time.

Everyone in our village in Petchubun was paid 500bht to vote blue.

Actually the blue party was the democrats. The going rate up here was between 200 & 400 and the family is dirty as they were not offered anything. Something about a farang in the family might put them into the authorities.

[Kaopad999]

13 minutes ago, Matt96 said:

what foreign nations have to do with Thai domestic p

 

7 minutes ago, Matt96 said:

its not a proof

The proof is there, maybe you just need to look a little further. Or maybe you want to remain in denial? 

[Moo 2]

What I want to know is why at polling stations government officials were giving 500 Baht to voters

and obviously that money comes from tax payers and voters in the first place!? who is talking bribery

or corruption or both.

[robblok]

11 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

But for clarity in this renewed debate, we have already removed the Thai Raksa Chart AND Future First imponderables from the equation and simply stated that across the board and before the voting started, PTP were around 30% less visible than in previous contests. Not too hard to work out that if you simply field less candidates, your success rate will drop. They're -49% losses over 2011 isn't 'huge' when you do consider the uneven playing field presented to all but one, brand new political party.

 

Maybe they hadn't gambled on their TRC proxy shooting themselves in the foot with their fatal PM's nomination but based on the number of candidates they themselves presented to the electorate before the polling booths opened, their losses aren't unexpected. Personally. I think they had already allowed for the worst-case scenario of the EC ruling to ban the TRC. They took the risk and the losses incurred are acceptable. Note that a certain personage had a really wonderful time at the Thaksin siblings wedding in Hong Kong on the Friday before the election while Elvis, after having the 'last word', chose to leave the building.

 

Nice to see you may be getting over your Thaksinphobia and beginning to get your head around the significance of the Democrat implosion though. They are down a whopping -79% on their 2011 showing. Maybe so far gone that even PPP won't touch them with a bargepole? Ideally PPP would need a bigger partner to make a meaningful, working coalition but when their leader only sees the most important thing is ensuring he keeps the big chair and rule by dictat, then is doesn't matter if the lower house wallows in self-importance and stymies any meaningful legislation. Does the new Constitution have anything similar to the US's Executive Orders? Or maybe that's what Article 44 is all about.

 

Sorry to disappoint you but there's nothing hard for me to accept as I have no dogs in this fight. Thaksin isn't anyone I would consider a good or better statesman either. Just try to curb your enthusiasm.

Only one i support is future forward (and he still has to prove himself). But yes I do like that PTP got far less votes, I have no feelings about the democrats but they are the biggest loser. 

 

I just wish those votes had not gone to the junta. 

 

[MikeN]

6 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I may be naive but can governing party tear up the constitution and re-write the law to disadvantage political parties? 

This is Thailand, of course they can ...... and have done so before.

you are naive if you think previous governments here have not used what would be considered neutral authorities elsewhere to gain an advantage over their political opponents.

 Make dubious directives to the police, exert influence over the judicial system, twist the arms of the Constitutional Court, lean on the media, use the DSI to harass your opponents, etc etc.

 All run of the mill stuff in Thai politics ! 

IMHO the Future Forward Party might be a breath of fresh air, but they might turn out to be more of the same.

[mikosan]

34 minutes ago, Inn Between said:

The outcome is definitely no shock when the cards are stacked so heavily in one side's favour.

 

Are we seeing the second act of a very long play for power -- a "Prime Minister Elect for Life"  kind of thing? 

Funny, I see the same scenario.

[NanLaew]

47 minutes ago, Matt96 said:

and there were exactly the same story (and the same sum of money!!!) about previous elections of Taksin or his puppets!

Look, Thaksin was the one who introduced populist policies to the Thai voter for the first time ever. Like in most democracies, including your own, it was a huge success.

 

Vote buying was already deeply ingrained in Thai government at all levels despite Thaksin NOT having invented it.

 

One of the first things proscribed by the (then) army coup leader were populist policies. Tantamount to vote buying as he saw it.

 

Vote buying was similarly renounced as a thing of the past.

 

Fast forward 5 or so years and the (now) unelected PM sees that this populism thingmabob works better than any amount of talking. Moreso if you're hopelessly ineloquent and the only way that you make people 'listen' is to carpet bomb prime time TV on a Friday evening.

 

So it was simply a logical progression to his party buying votes in Petchabun since he hadn't built any glitzy, expensive, high-speed road and rail links to nowhere like the ones that hooked the gullible buggers in Korat.

[CLW]

How are the odds of an uprising of the masses? Is it a question if or when?
EC announcing the rigged results at 2pm with probably more pathetic excuses such as a missing calculator...
If by then Phalang Ptacharat is declaring a win and nominate Prayuth, I expect something happening

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[racket]

Democracy is outdated. 

[Jip99]

9 minutes ago, Moo 2 said:

What I want to know is why at polling stations government officials were giving 500 Baht to voters

and obviously that money comes from tax payers and voters in the first place!? who is talking bribery

or corruption or both.

 

 

I didn’t think khun  Thaksin (and others) paid tax........

[candide]

30 minutes ago, rabas said:

You and I probably have different ideas how elections work.

 

 

Your comment wrongly suggests it happened during elections. Fake news

[Eric Loh]

9 minutes ago, MikeN said:

This is Thailand, of course they can ...... and have done so before.

you are naive if you think previous governments here have not used what would be considered neutral authorities elsewhere to gain an advantage over their political opponents.

 Make dubious directives to the police, exert influence over the judicial system, twist the arms of the Constitutional Court, lean on the media, use the DSI to harass your opponents, etc etc.

 All run of the mill stuff in Thai politics ! 

IMHO the Future Forward Party might be a breath of fresh air, but they might turn out to be more of the same.

Apparently you avoided answering my question and insert your own inscrutable diversion and hope to make us believe that the judiciary is in the hands of politicians and not the establishment. That in spite of political parties not aligned to the establishment have been disbanded and executives banned while those aligned were spared. You really don;t have a strong case. 

[candide]

12 minutes ago, MikeN said:

This is Thailand, of course they can ...... and have done so before.

you are naive if you think previous governments here have not used what would be considered neutral authorities elsewhere to gain an advantage over their political opponents.

 Make dubious directives to the police, exert influence over the judicial system, twist the arms of the Constitutional Court, lean on the media, use the DSI to harass your opponents, etc etc.

 All run of the mill stuff in Thai politics ! 

IMHO the Future Forward Party might be a breath of fresh air, but they might turn out to be more of the same.

You should read the constitution. It's impossible to amend the constitution unless it is approved also by 20% of MPs from EACH opposition party. Plus a Senate clause.

Practically, how do you think an anti-junta government can put some pressure on institution whose members have nearly all been appointed by the Junta and it's puppets. They control the Senate, NACC, EC, high courts, strategic committee, etc... Even the police chiefs. Not to mention the army which will be eager to protect the constitution. The real power is in the hands of appointed people, and it's not the elected government who appoints them in the current system.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

16 minutes ago, robblok said:

I just wish those votes had not gone to the junta.

I don't know enough about PTP to form an opinion on them, but I do know anything is better than the current government. The only chance Thailand has to get out from under them is for all other parties to work together against PPP - but that is unlikely to happen.

[roobaa01]

the results look like a government cliffhanger or stalemate thus investors are not pleased and the baht should depreciated but isn't why ???

 

wbr

roobaa01

[NanLaew]

11 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Apparently you avoided answering my question and insert your own inscrutable diversion and hope to make us believe that the judiciary is in the hands of politicians and not the establishment. That in spite of political parties not aligned to the establishment have been disbanded and executives banned while those aligned were spared. You really don;t have a strong case. 

Don't forget that previously banned executives of previously banned parties have been rehabilitated by the current administration if only as a means to an end.

Edited March 25, 2019 by NanLaew

[Matt96]

28 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Thaksin was the one who introduced populist policies to the Thai voter for the first time ever. Like in most democracies, including your own, it was a huge success.

this the worst think about democracy. there is always 20% losers who will vote for a populist who promise to rob 20% of successful toilers and share their wealth among parasites

Thaksin contaminated Thai politics with this destructive leftism

justice-freedom, not equality of outcomes

 

28 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Vote buying was already deeply ingrained in Thai government at all levels despite Thaksin NOT having invented it.

but it does not mean he did not do that

 

28 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Fast forward 5 or so years and the (now) unelected PM sees that this populism thingmabob works better than any amount of talking

that's why it should be a census on those who can elect. if you pay taxes more then you get from the government - you should have a right to vote

 

28 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Moreso if you're hopelessly ineloquent and the only way that you make people 'listen' is to carpet bomb prime time TV on a Friday evening.

the problem is that the most eloquent person could be the least capable to run the country.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Matt96

[PingRoundTheWorld]

2 minutes ago, Matt96 said:

that's why it should be a census on those who can elect. if you pay taxes more then you get from the government - you should have a right to vote

I actually agree with you there, but sadly this is not in the interest of elites nor the masses, so will never happen. Do you have any successful examples of this actually being implemented anywhere? (just curious)

[Jim7777]

3 hours ago, justin case said:

if one does not like the results, there is always the fresh air of a new coup

The thing is that Prayut is in control of the military he is the military COUP that Thailand is currently living under.  He’s the General in charge of the Thai military and it’s looking like he’s probably going to get elected but he has apparently been using his military to control the ballots and people are angry.  So you can’t really have another COUP against their own military commander who controls the military but Thai people will only put up with so much BS.  They should not have started rioting back in 2014 because they were angry at Ling Luck because now as a result they ended up with yet another military COUP and they may quite possibly be heading towards a total dictatorship.  

 

God I hope that doesn’t happen here because I really like this country, but when the military is literally appointing senators who are supposed to be representing their people and instead of course they are representing their Prime Minister which was what they were appointed to do in the first place that’s not exactly what a Democracy is supposed to be to put it lightly.  The very definition of a “senator” is a representative of the “PEOPLE” and they’ve got government appointed senators who are going to be involved in selecting the next head of the government under their new constitution.  

 

I hope that there is at least heavy opposition within the government if things turn out the way it looks like it is right now so that they can at least maintain some form of a democracy.  

 

Right now every Thai person I know is either very angry or unhappy with what’s going on right now with the election results coming in and the military involvement at the ballot boxesz. I’m a little bit concerned about potential civil unrest again because people are getting very emotional about it the more news they get.  

[Matt96]

17 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Do you have any successful examples of this actually being implemented anywhere? (just curious)

of course not. the US and European globalist propaganda about "disadvantaged minorities", inclusivity and equality made it nearly impossible.

 

it's much easier to rig elections or/and brainwash electors or buy them wholesale then establish sane and fair rules. leftists, who call themselves liberals, will never ever let it happen. people, who had been told that they are victims and therefore everyone owes them, are leftist electoral base. sad but true.

 

who will vote to rob and share? the one who does not have anything or believes so.

 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Matt96

[CLW]

I sense a 2014 revival. It begins with B and ends with down.
But this time it's the people's voice

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[Sticky Wicket]

7 minutes ago, Jim7777 said:

The thing is that Prayut is in control of the military he is the military COUP that Thailand is currently living under.  He’s the General in charge of the Thai military and it’s looking like he’s probably going to get elected but he has apparently been using his military to control the ballots and people are angry.

He actually isn't, Apirat Kongsompong is the head of the military now.

Prayut's military power has waned significantly since he become 'PM' and there are various groups within the army who are at loggerheads with each other. 

There could easily be another coup soon.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

9 minutes ago, Jim7777 said:

he’s probably going to get elected

"elected" - fixed it for you...

 

9 minutes ago, Jim7777 said:

they may quite possibly be heading towards a total dictatorship. 

I think more needs to happen for that outcome, but it's certainly a possibility. Let's hope not.

 

9 minutes ago, Jim7777 said:

Right now every Thai person I know is either very angry or unhappy with what’s going on right now with the election results coming in and the military involvement at the ballot boxesz. I’m a little bit concerned about potential civil unrest again because people are getting very emotional about it the more news they get.  

Yep. I don't think anyone is happy about these results, nor does anyone believe the election was fair. Not sure what that means later on - legal action or riots?

[Matt96]

Just now, CLW said:

Why else do you think Future Forward made such a head start

hah. you speak like there were no parties before in Thai history, which did exactly the same. people tend to fall into charms of new eloquent speakers, especially if he is a billionaire and controls so much of media and PR resources.

 

he gave control on his media assets to mom, so what? everybody should believe that now he has no control over them?

[holy cow cm]

Nothing more than an act of major trick under a dictatorship bureaucracy guise. Too bad the Thai were so clueless when it all started when the constitution was in progress of being redone to get the stronghold kill. Last final suffocating acts were perpetrated by EC almost up to the days before the election.

 

Just think what the real results would be if:

1. There was no redistribution and the redrawing of the constituency lines to incorporate say like military areas and other areas who have different voters in the red and blue areas.

 

How many votes possibly gained by the Junta and lost by the 2 parties? Millions?

 

2. If there was no heavy military guarding looking over the soldiers shoulders while they were voting. News showed soldiers trucked to the polls a week prior and yesterday with the media having speculation they did not seem to have the freedom to vote as they wanted. One could only figure an act of retribution would be forth coming. How would you vote under those circumstances? 

 

How many votes possibly gained by the Junta and lost by the Phuea Thai, Democratic, Future Forward? Millions?

 

3. If it was the real democratic election and winner take all. 

4. If there was a 100% elected senate as before and not 250 self imposed junta senators under the guise of the NCPO.

5.

6.

etc

etc

Just one and two are enough to throw the election, but three and four added is icing of the farce cake. If add 5,6 - up, there is too much to the pie to make it sour grapes 

 

Now as it is impossible to think the PPPR are actually ahead in voter numbers. How is this possible? Realistically it isn't as everyone thinks and is a bad nightmare of a magic trick of now you see it, now you don't.