Best estimates for visa changes, the near and far term?

[tideout]

Thanks for the responses. While I've been a frequent visitor to Thailand I haven't had the time some of you have. Still I was thinking along similar lines - at some point, revenue is revenue and not hard to see if you're losing it or getting more of it. 

I guess the worry would be that the Junta is really terrible at reading much more than whether they have control or they don't.....

[Pib]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

I agree with those guesses but we are all just guessing. When I stated lack of optimism before I was referring to my feeling that the chances that the recent set of onerous visa changes will be ROLLED BACK seem very unlikely to me. 

Nor do I think recent changes will be rolled back...would be a loss of face to the govt.  Definitely not rolled back in the near term (say over the next year) but maybe after that "if" the govt feels it's creating a "significant" economic negative.  

 

I know a lot of farangs think long term stay farangs provide a major contribution to the Thai economy, but long term stay farangs economic contributions are a drop in the bucket on the whole in this country of almost 70 million people. 

 

Sure, important to locations like Pattaya and Phuket (and maybe central Bangkok) where farangs are numerous...like fleas on a soi dog....but beyond those few locations farangs are a rarity in proportion to the Thai population.  Heck, here in western Bangkok where I live I can go weeks without seeing another farang in the malls or other locations.   

[Dave98]

Things are going to continue to tighten with the goal being to force expats out of Thailand.  They see the Chinese as the future and not westerners.  Remember to look beyond those fake smiles; they actually hate us but love our money.  Now that the Chinese are here and have money, we are useless to them. 

[SicTransit]

No change for the better for most folks. Continued attempts to milk imaginary super-rich foreigners who dream to live in Thailand on a declared 200K+ income and smart visas, despite the evidence clearly indicating that either this well is bone-dry or the offering simply doesn’t please the cattle.

[kokesaat]

My wife and I have been here for 23 years.  We've seen our share of changes in immigration, but to be honest, almost all for the better.  Smoother process, more and more friendly officials, shorter queues, and online 90 days reports.  I dare say there's no one who knows what tomorrow will bring......this being Thailand, we're not going to asked nor clued in until decisions are made.  All the people who talk about upping the monetary requirements or starting mandatory insurance don't have a clue....they're grasping at straws.  If you subscribe to their ideas, you'll lose sleep and worry about the future.....no way to spend your retirement!

Parking 800k in a bank reduces the many worries about monthly transfers.....will they be made on the right date, will they be identified as foreign transaction, etc etc.  

Finally, you're living in a foreign country.  Have a plan B.  You'll sleep better.

[BritManToo]

Cambodia is nice. Vietnam is nice. Philippines is nice.

 

No need to think too hard about the future, I might die before I get there.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

2 hours ago, Pib said:

I know a lot of farangs think long term stay farangs provide a major contribution to the Thai economy, but long term stay farangs economic contributions are a drop in the bucket on the whole in this country of almost 70 million people. 

70 million people is a nice figure, but keep in mind most of them live on less than 300 baht a day. A single expat making a western salary could easily spend 10x times that. Expats are also a major source of incoming tourism i.e. friends and family who wouldn't come otherwise. I think you (and probably the junta) are greatly underestimating it.

[BuckBee]

^

too right it greatly underestimated.

If you look at the western expat volume from early 2000's to current and amount of services they used and money they spent it was huge .

Current immigration issues is mainly those in charge are anti westerner due to political reasons and reducing anti Junta vibes .

 

Rules have bounced back and forth for decades so anything possible but I doubt ever be like was, western interest in Thailand has fallen drastically and other asian countries are taking the clientele happily ...

 

[JackThompson]

6 minutes ago, BuckBee said:

Rules have bounced back and forth for decades so anything possible but I doubt ever be like was, western interest in Thailand has fallen drastically and other asian countries are taking the clientele happily ...

When did immigration policy towards Westerners "bounce" in our direction in recent years (or decades)?  Looks like a one-way street to me.

[JackThompson]

2 hours ago, Dave98 said:

Things are going to continue to tighten with the goal being to force expats out of Thailand.  They see the Chinese as the future and not westerners.  Remember to look beyond those fake smiles; they actually hate us but love our money.  Now that the Chinese are here and have money, we are useless to them. 

They don't hate us - they do see us as an "other," but that's not the same thing at all.  Talk to those who work in the tourism sector and ask which foreigners they prefer (and hate), to discover that what Immigration/TAT are encouraging is not in line with what Thai's prefer.

[marcusarelus]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

70 million people is a nice figure, but keep in mind most of them live on less than 300 baht a day. A single expat making a western salary could easily spend 10x times that. Expats are also a major source of incoming tourism i.e. friends and family who wouldn't come otherwise. I think you (and probably the junta) are greatly underestimating it.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/annual-household-income-per-capita

 

Marriage extension to 600

Retirement to 1,000,000

No insurance change this year.

 

Western expats have almost no effect on economy.  Read the above information.

[marcusarelus]

3 hours ago, Dave98 said:

Things are going to continue to tighten with the goal being to force expats out of Thailand.  They see the Chinese as the future and not westerners.  Remember to look beyond those fake smiles; they actually hate us but love our money.  Now that the Chinese are here and have money, we are useless to them. 

They have a love/hate relationship with the Chinese.  Read about the anti Chinese laws of 70 years ago.  Every country loves foreign exchange, Thailand more than some less than others. 

[marcusarelus]

1 hour ago, BuckBee said:

^

too right it greatly underestimated.

If you look at the western expat volume from early 2000's to current and amount of services they used and money they spent it was huge .

Current immigration issues is mainly those in charge are anti westerner due to political reasons and reducing anti Junta vibes .

 

Rules have bounced back and forth for decades so anything possible but I doubt ever be like was, western interest in Thailand has fallen drastically and other asian countries are taking the clientele happily ...

 

Rules have not bounced anywhere.  They have raised the period of seasoning once in 20 years and the amount to be deposited in a Thai bank once in 20 years.  The Pound crashing vs Baht has effected tourism. 

[JackThompson]

29 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Western expats have almost no effect on economy.  Read the above information.

Just on tens of thousands of Thai's lives / livelihoods - but they don't show up on the GDP numbers or affect the stock-portfolios of the elite, so their lives don't count.

[marcusarelus]

19 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

Just on tens of thousands of Thai's lives / livelihoods - but they don't show up on the GDP numbers or affect the stock-portfolios of the elite, so their lives don't count.

That's why there is macro economics and micro economics.  Micro economics - my soi has two Farang if they leave 8 people will be hurt and have to find an alternative source of income.  Macro economics.  Too small to compute. 

 

Are you asking an economic question or writing a romance novel?  It has no impact on the people who write the rules for immigration. 

[swissie]

7 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

isn't it a little bit errr dangerous there?

 

 

 

Concerning Colombia.

Not anymore. For now.

BUT: The current conservative Governement is backtracking on the agreements made by the former liberal Governement with the FARC Rebels. The FARC Rebels are starting to feel "cheated". Remains to be seen, if they decide to re-arm again. If they decide to do so, Colombia will (once more) turn into a "hot spot".
- This must not worry a Foreighner-Immigrant much as long as his possessions fit into a couple of suit-cases and his main assets remain "overseas".

PS: Quite a number of Farangs would have left by now, if it wasn't for the fact that they have invested a nice chunk of their money in "Immovable-Assets" in Thailand. Hard to sell a Condo for a fair price in a "Buyers-Market".

 

[sumrit]

What changes are we likely to see? Anybody’s guess, but I’m looking primarily at extensions for people living in Thailand long term. While there have been restrictive changes recently, at least the overall income amounts haven’t increased. But I’d like to be optimistic and hope the new system will be simplified and make things easier.

The Monthly income Method:

The main change has been moving from declaring a 65/40k baht income to bringing that money into a Thai bank from abroad on a monthly basis – I don’t see a major problem with this in principle, we all need money here to live.

But the present rules are too rigid. Firstly some flexibility to make the transfers an average over 12 months and not a minimum monthly amount is needed.

Secondly, a more flexible proof of the source of the income is required. Not everybody has a pension but many have an investment/rental income etc, or even just a large bank balance to use. As long as its source can, if necessary, be proved that’s all that should be required.

Money in the Bank Method:

The main changes have been the restrictions and increase in length of time the money must remain in the bank. Having this money tied up seems to be hurting a lot of people.

The solution is to scrap this method totally.

Let everybody take their money out of the bank to use as they see fit. Just have everybody using the same ‘monthly income method’.

Everybody should have the necessary income to live in Thailand, wherever their income is sourced, be it from a pension, investments and/or savings. As long as there is some flexibility on bringing the money to Thailand the result will be the same – 65/40k baht average per month transferred into a Thai bank from abroad. And none of it needs to be seasoned, it can be used straight away.

And for all the people who have had to keep their lump sum in a Thai bank they will have an 800/400k baht windfall. To use as and when they want, including topping up any shortfall they might need to make in their monthly income if necessary.

Combining both these Extension methods should be acceptable to all expats, whether they have a regular income but little savings or people who have an income and reasonable savings – as long as they have the required average of 65/40k baht per month that Thai Immigration asks for.

Health Care:

This subject gets bandied around quite a bit on this forum. The problem for most ‘over 65’s’ is the cost of private health insurance is exorbitant and simply unattainable for most.

A solution could be a ‘low cost’ Government insurance scheme to provide basic health care at Government hospitals, at a cost that is available to all expats but profitable to the Thai Health system so any excess money is reinvested into the health system for Thai people to benefit from.

It could be renewed each year along with the annual extensions and paid for either monthly or annually.

Expats would no longer be a possible drain on Thailand while expats can still pay more to use private hospitals if they so wish.

[worgeordie]

I don't know why people keep going on about Visa /Extension issues,

i just did my extension a week ago ,and it could not have been easier,

10.00 at bank,get letter,travel to Immigration office,processed and out

the door by 11.20.and this is Chiang Mai,where before you had to be up

at 4.00 in the morning to get que ticket.could not get any easier.

 

I cannot see them reverting to the previous system ,of embassy letters

to prove income,as they were abused.

regards worgeordie

[PingRoundTheWorld]

3 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Western expats have almost no effect on economy.  Read the above information.

What are you on about? The data you provided says annual income per capita is $3322 - or in other words $276 a month. Most expats easily bring in 10-20x times that or more. I'm not sure where exactly you're "seeing" that expats have no effect.

[BuckBee]

4 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Rules have not bounced anywhere.  They have raised the period of seasoning once in 20 years and the amount to be deposited in a Thai bank once in 20 years.  The Pound crashing vs Baht has effected tourism. 

immigration rules have bounced back and forth quite a bit in last 2 decades if look beyond just one area of retirement funds .

[BuckBee]

5 hours ago, JackThompson said:

When did immigration policy towards Westerners "bounce" in our direction in recent years (or decades)?  Looks like a one-way street to me.

It's a narrow street but some dropped polices on in and outs and days allowed in country was a small benefit .

 

Currently those in charge not interested in making anything easy for westerners as we not best match for the Junta future .

Edited April 30, 2019 by BuckBee

[greeneking]

1 hour ago, worgeordie said:

I don't know why people keep going on about Visa /Extension issues,

i just did my extension a week ago ,and it could not have been easier,

10.00 at bank,get letter,travel to Immigration office,processed and out

the door by 11.20.and this is Chiang Mai,where before you had to be up

at 4.00 in the morning to get que ticket.could not get any easier.

 

I cannot see them reverting to the previous system ,of embassy letters

to prove income,as they were abused. 

regards worgeordie

 

They were not being abused by me and I understood my information was being checked and approved.  I paid for this to be done and was happy for it to be done. 

Nearly all countries in the world are still able to use the embassy letter system.

[Isaanbiker]

 Always have a backup plan. There's really no more to add, things have changed drastically. 

[Isaanbiker]

1 hour ago, worgeordie said:

I don't know why people keep going on about Visa /Extension issues,

i just did my extension a week ago ,and it could not have been easier,

10.00 at bank,get letter,travel to Immigration office,processed and out

the door by 11.20.and this is Chiang Mai,where before you had to be up

at 4.00 in the morning to get que ticket.could not get any easier.

 

I cannot see them reverting to the previous system ,of embassy letters

to prove income,as they were abused.

regards worgeordie

Wise words. Considering that Big Joke had found plenty of overstayers and the name Farang and Outlaw was being used way too often doesn't make us look good in general. Plus always raising taxes, including new ones at a time when our currency drops down into an endless basement like ice melting in the sun, it is different. 

 

  It's sad when many people have to look for ways to stay with their loved ones after they'd spent a fortune, their life savings. And it's even worse when people can't just move back where they came from if they don't have a well-paid job lined up. 

 

   

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, worgeordie said:

I don't know why people keep going on about Visa /Extension issues,

i just did my extension a week ago ,and it could not have been easier,

10.00 at bank,get letter,travel to Immigration office,processed and out

the door by 11.20.and this is Chiang Mai,where before you had to be up

at 4.00 in the morning to get que ticket.could not get any easier.

 

I cannot see them reverting to the previous system ,of embassy letters

to prove income,as they were abused.

regards worgeordie

Talking about ABUSE.

The people of the nationalities that have rudely CUT OFF the embassy letters that were being truthful in their income claims. They are the ones suffering the REAL abuse here.

[Mr Curtis]

I agree, Prepare for plan B and C. 

 

Start with plan B:

 

If you are retired and plan to live in Thailand, have at least 800K baht in the bank.

 

It's not a bad thing, if you are old, you are probably having a hard time getting health insurance.  I think a youtube  blogger is saying

that his cancer treatments will cost him at least one million baht.

[worgeordie]

5 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Talking about ABUSE.

The people of the nationalities that have rudely CUT OFF the embassy letters that were being truthful in their income claims. They are the ones suffering the REAL abuse here.

It's the ones that were not been truthful,the ones that are now saying

they are leaving because without the Embassy letters the cannot meet

the requirements to obtain a new extension.they are the ones that spoilt 

it for the honest folks.

regards Worgeordie

[jacko45k]

11 hours ago, JackThompson said:

When did immigration policy towards Westerners "bounce" in our direction in recent years (or decades)?  Looks like a one-way street to me.

Accommodating the people who lost Embassy letters by permitting proof of income into Thai banks? 

[BritManToo]

6 hours ago, BuckBee said:

immigration rules have bounced back and forth quite a bit in last 2 decades if look beyond just one area of retirement funds .

No bouncing for white folk, they have only got harder.

(Unless you can name one point where it got easier?)

[JackThompson]

11 hours ago, sumrit said:

Money in the Bank Method:

The main changes have been the restrictions and increase in length of time the money must remain in the bank. Having this money tied up seems to be hurting a lot of people.

The solution is to scrap this method totally.

Most retirees who retire to Thailand don't have or need 65K Baht/mo in income.  Many own their own condos, so don't have rent to pay.  Thailand can wish all they want, but most retirees with that level of "disposable" income to transfer monthly won't be coming here, because this is a "discount" retirement destination - where working-class people can afford to retire, and live better than if they stayed at home. 

 

The combo method is/was ideal for many retirees - allowing a "buffer amount" in the bank to cover any shortfall between 65K and their income.

 

Add to this, some offices demanding all income "must be from a govt pension" - which is insane, since those don't pay nearly enough (for most), and most have other sources of income they rely on from investments, etc.

 

11 hours ago, sumrit said:

Health Care:

This subject gets bandied around quite a bit on this forum. The problem for most ‘over 65’s’ is the cost of private health insurance is exorbitant and simply unattainable for most.

A solution could be a ‘low cost’ Government insurance scheme to provide basic health care at Government hospitals, at a cost that is available to all expats but profitable to the Thai Health system so any excess money is reinvested into the health system for Thai people to benefit from.

It could be renewed each year along with the annual extensions and paid for either monthly or annually.

Expats would no longer be a possible drain on Thailand while expats can still pay more to use private hospitals if they so wish.

Limit the "minimum plan" to "stabilize and send home," with a deductible of 100K - which could be very inexpensive.  It is long-term care that usually creates the high-bills, and this would cover the less-common accidents, initial stabilizing treatment for heart-attacks and strokes, etc.

 

Unfortunately, this pawn appears to be used as a scheme from the insurance companies, to force folks into buying outpatient, etc - which is completely unnecessary to protect Thailand from foreigner's medical bills.